Joe Musgrove Thread

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

You can't remove bad starts just because you don't like them. Lynn's fWAR was 1.5 last year, which works out to 4 with a 2.7 multiplier. If his last start was worth -0.7 WAR, I find that to be a pretty significant data point to consider. Honestly, I hope Lynn defies both the aging curve and career norms and is as good as you think he will be, I just personally don't want the White Sox to bet their 2021 season on it.

Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR pitcher in 2019 and a 2.7 fWAR pitcher in 2020 using the multiplier. That's a 3 WAR pitcher to me. Sorry you don't see it that way.

Steamer projects Dunning at 2.4 WAR next year based on 149 IP. If that performance level holds over more IP, he will be worth more than that. If there is a higher performance level over 149 IP, he will be worth more than that. Yes, there are a lot of variables, but there's a decent chance (I'd say ~30%) Dunning could be worth 3 WAR next year.

You really need to stop with the hyperbole. Steiver's range of outcomes is more volatile based on his body of work than Dunning's. He could end up a 5 WAR/yr pitcher or never see MLB again. That volatility makes Steiver less valuable.

Again with the hyperbole. The numbers point to what I'm saying, accept it or don't, but that won't change.

Listen you have some good thoughts in here but you keep using hyperbole in the wrong way and it makes your posts sound silly.  You also seemed distracted by multiple arguments so just explain Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020.  32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Dont give my xFip or Zips or fWar...would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 hours ago, GREEDY said:

Why debate Musgrove's value and ability then? 

I'm glad your taek is a simple one:  don't trade assets, spend.  Which if you go back and see was my exact take as well.  

 

Im not disagreeing with you...this thread started with people trading three of our top ten prospects for a guy thats about as good as Quintana.  If it was Stiever, Rutherford and Adolfo for Darvish....interesting.  But you dont throw all your chips in for someone that is questionable and Ive thrown a lot of stats supporting Musgrove as being very questionable.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

To be fair his fWAR is quite a bit higher,last 3 years 2.2, 3.3 and 1 (2.7 over full season).

That is a 2.7 average over the last 3 seasons.

It depends on how much you believe his fip underperformance is systemic (last 3 years 4.23 era and 3.7 fip).

There is probably some skill involved but the pirates also were a pretty bad team defensively so that might have inflated his era a little too compared to his fip.

Im just not sure about fWar...When i see Meada as better than Giolito...Hendricks better than Scherzer...it doesnt feel right.  

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Listen you have some good thoughts in here but you keep using hyperbole in the wrong way and it makes your posts sound silly.  You also seemed distracted by multiple arguments so just explain Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020.  32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Dont give my xFip or Zips or fWar...would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.  

Your post said "And Steiver is nothing..." presenting it as though that was my take. The statement was hyperbolic and an inaccurate characterization of my argument. Stiever has a larger range of outcomes than Dunning, including a larger negative range. That doesn't make him "nothing", it makes him less likely to succeed than Dunning. As far as your thoughts on Musgrove, I'm not arguing against your cherry picked stats. He's been a 3 WAR pitcher the last 2 years so it's reasonable to expect that going forward.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Your post said "And Steiver is nothing..." presenting it as though that was my take. The statement was hyperbolic and an inaccurate characterization of my argument. Stiever has a larger range of outcomes than Dunning, including a larger negative range. That doesn't make him "nothing", it makes him less likely to succeed than Dunning. As far as your thoughts on Musgrove, I'm not arguing against your cherry picked stats. He's been a 3 WAR pitcher the last 2 years so it's reasonable to expect that going forward.

I agree about Stievers range of accounts.  I just cant understand holding that reasonable position at the same time as having absolute confidence in DD greatness inspite the very thin actual evidence.  And Musgrove has been a 1 WAR pitcher his whole career...fWar is 2...expecting 3 WAR going forward is wonderfully optimistic.  His actual game by game evidence over 2 years is hard to deny unless of course you choose to not look.  

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I agree about Stievers range of accounts.  I just cant understand holding that reasonable position at the same time as having absolute confidence in DD greatness inspite the very thin actual evidence.  And Musgrove has been a 1 WAR pitcher his whole career...fWar is 2...expecting 3 WAR going forward is wonderfully optimistic.  His actual game by game evidence over 2 years is hard to deny unless of course you choose to not look.  

3.3 and 2.7 is not 2. It's 3. Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher on average over the last 2 years. Also, "my confidence" in Dunning is a conservative Steamer projection, and that he has had some success both in the high minors and MLB. Those last two factors reduce the low end range of his outcomes significantly.

[bmags]

Gotta say, the more I go through possible acquisitions the more I keep pointing back go Musgrove just on a pure expected production basis, not even control/cost. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Gotta say, the more I go through possible acquisitions the more I keep pointing back go Musgrove just on a pure expected production basis, not even control/cost. 

The seemingly light return for Darvish might help the Sox if they go after Musgrove.

[SoxBlanco]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

Gotta say, the more I go through possible acquisitions the more I keep pointing back go Musgrove just on a pure expected production basis, not even control/cost. 

I’ve decided that I want Musgrove. If you take out 2017 when he was used as a reliever for a large portion of the season, he has 7.2 WAR across 68 starts. That’s over 3 WAR per 30 starts. And when you look at his baseball savant numbers, he has been underperforming based on his metrics. They look near elite, which tells me he’s either going to continue being the same pitcher or possibly unlock something that takes him to the next level. Sign me up. In my opinion, worst case is he’s a solid 3/4 piece of the rotation.

[steveno89]

6 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I’ve decided that I want Musgrove. If you take out 2017 when he was used as a reliever for a large portion of the season, he has 7.2 WAR across 68 starts. That’s over 3 WAR per 30 starts. And when you look at his baseball savant numbers, he has been underperforming based on his metrics. They look near elite, which tells me he’s either going to continue being the same pitcher or possibly unlock something that takes him to the next level. Sign me up. In my opinion, worst case is he’s a solid 3/4 piece of the rotation.

I like Musgrove, but what is the cost assuming their are quite a few suitors? 

I think clubs would like to see how FA plays out before dealing from their farm. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

7 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I’ve decided that I want Musgrove. If you take out 2017 when he was used as a reliever for a large portion of the season, he has 7.2 WAR across 68 starts. That’s over 3 WAR per 30 starts. And when you look at his baseball savant numbers, he has been underperforming based on his metrics. They look near elite, which tells me he’s either going to continue being the same pitcher or possibly unlock something that takes him to the next level. Sign me up. In my opinion, worst case is he’s a solid 3/4 piece of the rotation.

If you use fWAR he looks better.  WAR says about 1 per year...and the peripherals look good but i keep asking this...Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020.  32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.  

[he gone.]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

I like Musgrove, but what is the cost assuming their are quite a few suitors? 

I think clubs would like to see how FA plays out before dealing from their farm. 

This in a way. Musgrove is a fantasy baseball/statcast darling and is good. Better than the average fan will give him credit for. That said, he does have a bit of the "McCann" surplus tied to him. Or the Z. Wheeler "surplus", or the second cheapest bottle of wine at a restaurant "surplus" tied to him. Meaning, people want a good player, but not willing to pay for Realmulto or Cole last year because they cost SO MUCH more. So more people settle in for the next best option and drive price. So there's maybe what, 2 or 3 suitors for JT, but 5-6 for McCann. Drives up McCann's $$ and your ROR isn't as strong. The wine analogy is kind of the opposite, but many times the second cheapest wine option is the worst. However restaurants know people dont want to go for the cheapest option and look bad & go for the second lowest. Therefore restaurants take that opportunity and put their cheapest wine at the second lowest price to drive margin. 

Long winded way of saying Darvish/Snell probably go cheaper (relatively speaking) than Musgrove since there's more demand for the good, not great option. 

[hi8is]

3 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Long winded way of saying Darvish/Snell probably go cheaper (relatively speaking) than Musgrove since there's more demand for the good, not great option. 

No way no how.

[SoxBlanco]

7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If you use fWAR he looks better.  WAR says about 1 per year...and the peripherals look good but i keep asking this...Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020.  32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.  

His highest FIP in the NL has been 3.82, and his worst ERA has been 4.44. Where are you getting 5.5? Did you just pick an arbitrary time frame?

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If you use fWAR he looks better.  WAR says about 1 per year...and the peripherals look good but i keep asking this...Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020.  32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.  

His last 32 starts show a 4.36 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 9.41 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9, and a 47.4% GB rate.  What’s so bad about those stats?

[GreenSox]

54 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Long winded way of saying Darvish/Snell probably go cheaper (relatively speaking) .

That could be true, with an emphasis on "relatively speaking" ... i.e. relative to his production level.
 

[Balta1701]

51 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

His highest FIP in the NL has been 3.82, and his worst ERA has been 4.44. Where are you getting 5.5? Did you just pick an arbitrary time frame?

 

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His last 32 starts show a 4.36 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 9.41 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9, and a 47.4% GB rate.  What’s so bad about those stats?

Part of the trick in the numbers that person gave you is that Musgrove had a couple of excellent outings in April of 2019 and then put up an ERA of 5.20 from May 1 on, so the person who wrote that is deliberately excluding the month where he was exceptional and a couple good starts last year, but that said - that's literally a calendar year of starts with an ERA over 5. 

Is Musgrove a Javy Vazquez guy, where he seems like he should be doing way better than he actually is?

[michelangelosmonkey]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Part of the trick in the numbers that person gave you is that Musgrove had a couple of excellent outings in April of 2019 and then put up an ERA of 5.20 from May 1 on, so the person who wrote that is deliberately excluding the month where he was exceptional and a couple good starts last year, but that said - that's literally a calendar year of starts with an ERA over 5. 

Is Musgrove a Javy Vazquez guy, where he seems like he should be doing way better than he actually is?

Im not sure its a "trick".  Its a trick to just look at a single number and say "truth".  I dug into his individual starts and his last two starts in late September were stellar...but before that and through all of his non-April stats in 2019 he was bad.  Thats 32 consecutive starts...and smart people on here are always saying beware of end of season anomalies. And while you cant ignore the great April of 2019 or the great late September of 2020...shouldnt the bad in between  be a point of interest?  

[GreenSox]

29 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Is Musgrove a Javy Vazquez guy, where he seems like he should be doing way better than he actually is?

Yea.  A.J. Burnett was like that too.  I've seen him pitch a fair amount and always liked him, but when you step back and look, the results just aren't there.  He's an average pitcher, and you just can't trade much more than average prospects for average players if you want to stay ahead.

[bmags]

Soxtalk looking at underperforming pirates pitcher and decides that it’s probably the pitchers fault.

[Dam8610]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Soxtalk looking at underperforming pirates pitcher and decides that it’s probably the pitchers fault.

Well if you take out all his good starts, his numbers are atrocious. How could anyone ever justify acquiring a pitcher who occasionally has a bad game and pitches for a team with atrocious defense so his ERA is usually a half run or higher more than his FIP? That's preposterous, he has to be awful.

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

Well if you take out all his good starts, his numbers are atrocious. How could anyone ever justify acquiring a pitcher who occasionally has a bad game and pitches for a team with atrocious defense so his ERA is usually a half run or higher more than his FIP? That's preposterous, he has to be awful.

Surely there isn't a single example of a guy going away from the Pirates and becoming Good

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

Soxtalk looking at underperforming pirates pitcher and decides that it’s probably the pitchers fault.

It is possible he could be a Vazquez/AJ Burnett type. 

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

It is possible he could be a Vazquez/AJ Burnett type. 

So at worst he’s a cost controlled pitcher that gets you what everyone is drooling over Quintana getting them, and then on other side he shows realistic chance at being much better than that while on Sox.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

So at worst he’s a cost controlled pitcher that gets you what everyone is drooling over Quintana getting them, and then on other side he shows realistic chance at being much better than that while on Sox.

Yes for Konnor Pinklington not Stiever.  Quintana is free and I suspect Q + Stiever is better than Musgrove over five years.