Trade Whispers - Starting Pitchers

[Rounding_Third]

34 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

I'm not sure on this either.  Speaking Metrically, Richards doesn't do anything special, so I don't get it.  Besides Kluber, where is a FA with any upside other than Bauer?  Maybe Kevin Gausman at about $10 million?  If the asking price is through the roof like the Burnes deal mentioned above, I guess we go into the season with ????? at 4 and 5......after you revisit Musgrove again

With a shoutout to CaliSoxFan, Taijaun Walker looks pretty good; $9-10m?

[Wisebri224]

16 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Gausman accepted the qualifying offer to stay in San Francisco.

Oops.  Forgot that

[Whisox05]

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:

With a shoutout to CaliSoxFan, Taijaun Walker looks pretty good; $9-10m?

I said 2/$15M but I could see it being more or less. Hard to guess how front offices view him.Smoke and mirrors pitchers but who I classify as a pitcher ( not a thrower) are not thought of very highly . He is 28 only so there's that and TJ is behind him so it's full steam ahead for him.

[Rounding_Third]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I said 2/$15M but I could see it being more or less. Hard to guess how front offices view him.Smoke and mirrors pitchers but who I classify as a pitcher ( not a thrower) are not thought of very highly . He is 28 only so there's that and TJ is behind him so it's full steam ahead for him.

Yeah, signing prediction/expectations vs actuals among pundits are all over the place.  This guy seems like the real deal. With TJ in the rear view mirror, those 60 impressive innings could easily get ~150 for 2021; not unreasonable.  2/$15m in a heartbeat, hell, at his age, I'd even take a flyer for 3/4 years at $25/30m.  Given that security, he might be interested.  Maybe a little risky for Sox but what a steal if he's one of the TJ success stories.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

44 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Yeah, signing prediction/expectations vs actuals among pundits are all over the place.  This guy seems like the real deal. With TJ in the rear view mirror, those 60 impressive innings could easily get ~150 for 2021; not unreasonable.  2/$15m in a heartbeat, hell, at his age, I'd even take a flyer for 3/4 years at $25/30m.  Given that security, he might be interested.  Maybe a little risky for Sox but what a steal if he's one of the TJ success stories.

I just checked what MLBTR said about him :

Suffice to say, teams considering Walker will likely not be chasing upside so much as hoping for reasonably priced, solid innings. And there’s reason to think he can serve as a useful back-of-the-rotation starter. Walker was healthy enough in 2020 to average 93.5 mph with his fastball, not far off his career average, and he won’t turn 29 until August. MLBTR graded him the 23rd-best available free agent, predicting that he’d land a two-year, $16MM contract.

So I guess me and MLBTR think alike as far as price goes.

[Rounding_Third]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just checked what MLBTR said about him :

Suffice to say, teams considering Walker will likely not be chasing upside so much as hoping for reasonably priced, solid innings. And there’s reason to think he can serve as a useful back-of-the-rotation starter. Walker was healthy enough in 2020 to average 93.5 mph with his fastball, not far off his career average, and he won’t turn 29 until August. MLBTR graded him the 23rd-best available free agent, predicting that he’d land a two-year, $16MM contract.

So I guess me and MLBTR think alike as far as price goes.

You had said earlier today, separately, about $13m payroll and 4th pitcher mostly likely from trade; a great point.  Did the 2 arb deals today increase that # to $137m?  How can the Sox find a way to sign this guy?  ...and another 5/6m for DH & C.  You think they would consider breaking through that $140m magic # that's been suggested by "insiders"? They'd have to approach $150m to get them all. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

You had said earlier today, separately, about $13m payroll and 4th pitcher mostly likely from trade; a great point.  Did the 2 arb deals today increase that # to $137m?  How can the Sox find a way to sign this guy?  ...and another 5/6m for DH & C.  You think they would consider breaking through that $140m magic # that's been suggested by "insiders"? They'd have to approach $150m to get them all. 

Probably not . Arbitration estimates were probably figured into payroll already since Reylo wasn't non tendered and Gio was not going to get more than the estimates unless he signed an extension.

When I first starting writing about the Hendriks signing I thought the Sox were maxed out with only the salary of  a guy the Sox trade for salary and maybe another $5M after that so maybe another $10M total. I didn't expect a DH acquisition nor a catcher from anything but the bargain bin otherwise known as dumpster diving or minor league contracts.

Soon after we got the Nick Williams minor league deal. I really haven't back off from that . I think a trade is more likely than a FA signing but if the Sox can get a cost controlled pitcher who is under $5M now like Musgrove  I could see another guy like Danny Murphy or Mitch Moreland signed.

Right now the Twitter guys are saying Garret Richards who is a FA and estimates on him are about the same as Walker only perhaps 1  instead of 2 year contract.

I don't expect to be right on everything and I'm actually hoping I'm wrong. I just did it as an exercise to see if my educated guesswork could beat the Foodie Twitter guys "source" of information.

[Whisox05]

 

[Rounding_Third]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Probably not . Arbitration estimates were probably figured into payroll already since Reylo wasn't non tendered and Gio was not going to get more than the estimates unless he signed an extension.

When I first starting writing about the Hendriks signing I thought the Sox were maxed out with only the salary of  a guy the Sox trade for salary and maybe another $5M after that so maybe another $10M total. I didn't expect a DH acquisition nor a catcher from anything but the bargain bin otherwise known as dumpster diving or minor league contracts.

Soon after we got the Nick Williams minor league deal. I really haven't back off from that . I think a trade is more likely than a FA signing but if the Sox can get a cost controlled pitcher who is under $5M now like Musgrove  I could see another guy like Danny Murphy or Mitch Moreland signed.

Right now the Twitter guys are saying Garret Richards who is a FA and estimates on him are about the same as Walker only perhaps 1  instead of 2 year contract.

I don't expect to be right on everything and I'm actually hoping I'm wrong. I just did it as an exercise to see if my educated guesswork could beat the Foodie Twitter guys "source" of information.

Hope that's true and they're still sitting around $131m.   

I have to respectfully disagree about Williams.  His hard fall from year1 both statistically and lack of interest, with no injury history, signals at least one major flaw exposed; probably more,  I.E. sucker for changeup in the dirt; fastball up & in, etc.  High K-rate good indicator, too.  Pretty awful defensively too.  

If still at $131, they could still sign Walker, if they crept up to low  $140's, I think they possibly could still get DH & C combined for <=$5m.  Say, Asdrubal Cabrera & Avila, maybe $4m combined. AC brings the same great versatility as La Stella at < 1/3 the cost.  Still good SH from both sides and good power from LH.  You know I like Murphy but if we're pinching pennies, he and Moreland might be a bit more and don't offer the defensive versatility. 

The key is the 4th SP, if a trade isn't possible, then Walker should be #1 FA target.  He blows away Richards for potential, both having TJ but Richards also has a loooong arm injury history back to '16.  Walker is a year further along from the surgery and is also a year further along than Kluber, pitching the 53 innings last year (said 60 before).  Seems like a no brainer as to who is the best choice among the 3.           

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:

Hope that's true and they're still sitting around $131m.   

I have to respectfully disagree about Williams.  His hard fall from year1 both statistically and lack of interest, with no injury history, signals at least one major flaw exposed; probably more,  I.E. sucker for changeup in the dirt; fastball up & in, etc.  High K-rate good indicator, too.  Pretty awful defensively too.  

If still at $131, they could still sign Walker, if they crept up to low  $140's, I think they possibly could still get DH & C combined for <=$5m.  Say, Asdrubal Cabrera & Avila, maybe $4m combined. AC brings the same great versatility as La Stella at < 1/3 the cost.  Still good SH from both sides and good power from LH.  You know I like Murphy but if we're pinching pennies, he and Moreland might be a bit more and don't offer the defensive versatility. 

The key is the 4th SP, if a trade isn't possible, then Walker should be #1 FA target.  He blows away Richards for potential, both having TJ but Richards also has a loooong arm injury history back to '16.  Walker is a year further along from the surgery and is also a year further along than Kluber, pitching the 53 innings last year (said 60 before).  Seems like a no brainer as to who is the best choice among the 3.           

Oh don't get me wrong . I'm not saying Williams is going to be the DH . He's just AAA fodder, emergency use only. In no way, shape, or form was I saying he is the DH now which is why I mentioned Murphy or Moreland. Or La Stella. Plus I love Yermin so even though I don't think he will ever get a shot I'd prefer him . I also said in another post the Sox had no chance at Kluber and if hes signing with the Yankees  then so far I'm doing pretty good on my guesses.

[poppysox]

12 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Probably not . Arbitration estimates were probably figured into payroll already since Reylo wasn't non tendered and Gio was not going to get more than the estimates unless he signed an extension.

When I first starting writing about the Hendriks signing I thought the Sox were maxed out with only the salary of  a guy the Sox trade for salary and maybe another $5M after that so maybe another $10M total. I didn't expect a DH acquisition nor a catcher from anything but the bargain bin otherwise known as dumpster diving or minor league contracts.

Soon after we got the Nick Williams minor league deal. I really haven't back off from that . I think a trade is more likely than a FA signing but if the Sox can get a cost controlled pitcher who is under $5M now like Musgrove  I could see another guy like Danny Murphy or Mitch Moreland signed.

Right now the Twitter guys are saying Garret Richards who is a FA and estimates on him are about the same as Walker only perhaps 1  instead of 2 year contract.

 I don't expect to be right on everything and I'm actually hoping I'm wrong. I just did it as an exercise to see if my educated guesswork could beat the Foodie Twitter guys "source" of information.

I hadn't considered T. Walker but you got me to take a look.  Not bad!  I can't overlook that dumpster you refer to is pretty full.  Lots of players don't have jobs and the clubs seem to be in no hurry.  Going to have some good bargains available for a backup catcher and/or DH.  

[SoxBlanco]

I want to circle back to Musgrove for a minute. With only two years of control, what will it take to land him? He had to be the cheapest of the potential trade targets, right? Here’s a somewhat recent article on him. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/joe-musgrove-trade-candidate-analysis.html

Edited January 16, 2021 by SoxBlanco

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I want to circle back to Musgrove for a minute. With only two years of control, what will it take to land him? He had to be the cheapest of the potential trade targets, right? Here’s a somewhat recent article on him. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/joe-musgrove-trade-candidate-analysis.html

Musgrove is who I want, but it all comes down to price.  If someone is willing to offer a top 100 prospect, the only way we’re in the ballpark is by offering Jared Kelley.  Are we willing to sell him now when his value could escalate fairly quickly with even one full ball season?  If they’re willing to take something centered around Thompson, one of Adolfo/Rutherford/Sheets, and then one of our young rookie ball / low A guys (say Beard), then I’m 100% for it.  Just not sure that’s going to get a deal done unfortunately.

[Rounding_Third]

11 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Oh don't get me wrong . I'm not saying Williams is going to be the DH . He's just AAA fodder, emergency use only. In no way, shape, or form was I saying he is the DH now which is why I mentioned Murphy or Moreland. Or La Stella. Plus I love Yermin so even though I don't think he will ever get a shot I'd prefer him . I also said in another post the Sox had no chance at Kluber and if hes signing with the Yankees  then so far I'm doing pretty good on my guesses.

You had previously posted in his thread that Williams was our DH.  Not going to quote it, it doesn't matter not you opinion now, its just why I had referenced him.  Yermin? Oh man, idk!  I like him and Collins in Charlotte as 3rd string C options but DH?  RH, 1 career MLB AB,  he misses everything for me and an unnecessary risk.  Besides, we need vets at LH (a must) DH & backup C; challenging positions best handled by vets.  Also given the team youth, they provide leadership ala Keuchel last year.  1 year deals; max 2 if required (i.e. La Stella but not likely now). 

3 hours ago, poppysox said:

I hadn't considered T. Walker but you got me to take a look.  Not bad!  I can't overlook that dumpster you refer to is pretty full.  Lots of players don't have jobs and the clubs seem to be in no hurry.  Going to have some good bargains available for a backup catcher and/or DH.  

If that's the Sox idea, too, hope it is, then figure out the best fits and get em ASAP!  Don't stop being aggressive!  When the signings start, they may go quickly.    

Edited January 16, 2021 by Rounding_Third
spelling

[ron883]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

I want to circle back to Musgrove for a minute. With only two years of control, what will it take to land him? He had to be the cheapest of the potential trade targets, right? Here’s a somewhat recent article on him. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/joe-musgrove-trade-candidate-analysis.html

I think the league is likely high on Musgrove after the gaudy strikeout numbers he put up last season. Pirates won't trade him cheaply. I agree with @Chicago White Sox. It would take a prospect of Jared Kelley's ilk as the headliner. 

[Rounding_Third]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Musgrove is who I want, but it all comes down to price.  If someone is willing to offer a top 100 prospect, the only way we’re in the ballpark is by offering Jared Kelley.  Are we willing to sell him now when his value could escalate fairly quickly with even one full ball season?  If they’re willing to take something centered around Thompson, one of Adolfo/Rutherford/Sheets, and then one of our young rookie ball / low A guys (say Beard), then I’m 100% for it.  Just not sure that’s going to get a deal done unfortunately.

Though I like Walker as a FA, the payroll says its best for a trade.  If its Musgrove then yeah, you trade Kelley.  Agree that Pitt wouldn't want the others you mentioned, either.  With due respect to Kelley; no guarantees.  Musgrove is through all the finger crossing.  Also, if target would be Castillo, virtually same 2021 salary, 1 more year of team control over Musgrove and a step up in quality, they should consider Vaughn if that's what it would take.  They probably wouldn't though.  Probably other similar candidates around the league.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Rounding_Third
spelling

[poppysox]

39 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

You had previously posted in his thread that Williams was our DH.  Not going to quote it, it doesn't matter not you opinion now, its just why I had referenced him.  Yermin? Oh man, idk!  I like him and Collins in Charlotte as 3rd string C options but DH?  RH, 1 career MLB AB,  he misses everything for me and an unnecessary risk.  Besides, we need vets at LH (a must) DH & backup C; challenging positions best handled by vets.  Also given the team youth, they provide leadership ala Keuchel last year.  1 year deals; max 2 if required (i.e. La Stella but not likely now). 

If that's the Sox idea, too, hope it is, then figure out the best fits and get em ASAP!  Don't stop being aggressive!  When the signings start, they may go quickly.    

Yep. Someone who can hold the fort until Vaughn comes up and an end of career backup catcher.  Each one would be a 1-3 million.  We don't need more EE types for 10 million.   I think JR has 1 more "big" signing left in his wallet for that starter (Bauer or Tanaka preferred).

[Rey21]

34 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Though I like Walker as a FA, the payroll says its best for a trade.  If its Musgrove then yeah, you trade Kelley.  Agree that Pitt wouldn't want the others you mentioned, either.  With due respect to Kelley; no guarantees.  Musgrove is through all the finger crossing.  Also, if target would be Castillo, virtually same 2021 salary, 1 more year of team control over Musgrove and a step up in quality, they should consider Vaughn if that's what it would take.  They probably wouldn't though.  Probably other similar candidates around the league.

If you trade Vaughn for Castillo that’s telling teams to GTFO the way its the Sox championship to lose with a DH signing as well. I endorse trading Vaughn for Castillo but they won’t do it.

[Rey21]

Really gonna get crazy here but wonder what it would take to get a Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte package? 

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Really gonna get crazy here but wonder what it would take to get a Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte package? 

Luis Robert and Kopech

[iWiN4PreP]

29 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Really gonna get crazy here but wonder what it would take to get a Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte package? 

Id focus just on gallen, tho i would love marte... doubt they give up both

but gallen marte for kopech madrigal and much more for starters

probably need to add crochet or vaughn or something to it as well

 

gallen is top notch

 

[Whisox05]

 

[Rounding_Third]

32 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yep. Someone who can hold the fort until Vaughn comes up and an end of career backup catcher.  Each one would be a 1-3 million.  We don't need more EE types for 10 million.   I think JR has 1 more "big" signing left in his wallet for that starter (Bauer or Tanaka preferred).

Don't think this will happen.  Payroll already too high.  Sitting at ~$131m and they've hinted at ~$140m max.  And they should spend a few mil more on DH & C.  Doubt if they go past low $140's and that's a stretch.   

Personally, can't stand Bauer.  Not enough clubhouse walls for all the mirrors he needs.  Another Brice Harper.   Hendriks at the opposite end of that spectrum; added bonus with his signing.    

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Rounding_Third said:

You had previously posted in his thread that Williams was our DH.  Not going to quote it, it doesn't matter not you opinion now, its just why I had referenced him.  Yermin? Oh man, idk!  I like him and Collins in Charlotte as 3rd string C options but DH?  RH, 1 career MLB AB,  he misses everything for me and an unnecessary risk.  Besides, we need vets at LH (a must) DH & backup C; challenging positions best handled by vets.  Also given the team youth, they provide leadership ala Keuchel last year.  1 year deals; max 2 if required (i.e. La Stella but not likely now). 

If that's the Sox idea, too, hope it is, then figure out the best fits and get em ASAP!  Don't stop being aggressive!  When the signings start, they may go quickly.    

You took me too literally. I know in one thread I said "Our new DH ladies and gentlemen" as a joke . I had to look him up because I couldn't remember who he was. As far as liking Yermin. I just like him , his story, and I have been following him since the Sox picked him up  That doesn't mean I want him as our DH this year. He could've got a chance for the last 2 years and didn't . Him and Collins were the reason why I never wanted Encarnacion. In 2019,  the last rebuild year, him and Collins could've got more AB's but Mercedes got none as Welington Castillo and other garbage continued to get AB's.