Trade Whispers - Starting Pitchers

[hi8is]

31 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

 

Shocking.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I mean just in the last 4 years, I wouldn’t consider the 2019 Nationals or 2017 Astros “superteams”. Before them, I wouldn’t consider those Royals or Giants teams superteams either.

The 2017 Astros won 101 games, had an electronic advantage, added Verlander at the waiver deadline, and they were so talent loaded that SI declared they would win the 2017 World Series 3 years in advance. I will give you the Nats. They are the 1 team to win a WS recently that wasn’t a super team, you almost have to go back to the 2014 Giants and Bumgarner to find the next example of a team winning a title without being incredibly loaded. The 2017 Astros are the definition of a super team. Aside from the Cheating, that’s exactly the level the White Sox need to reach if they want to take a trophy away from the other monster teams out there.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Gun to your head, what do you predict Madrigal’s fWAR will be this year, assuming he’s a starter for the full year?

Here’s the basic problem. Madrigal could be the player we saw last year, who would be a 0 WAR player over a full year (his batting average would not stay that high), terrible on the base paths and on defense. Or he could be a good base runner and great defender like we were promised and wind up a 3-4 WAR player. Except for the fact that he wasn’t last year, that’s what I would have expected, but last year was stunningly bad for a player of his pedigree and frankly I would have never guessed he could have been that disappointing. He shouldn’t have been, not with the amount of experience he has. And on top of that, he seems really injury prone.

I simply don’t know what he will be next year. I didn’t see Vaughn at all last year and somehow I feel more confident in him for next year. And that’s the problem - he’s got an enormous possible range, and if the team isn’t confident in him showing substantial improvement, then they are well justified in shopping him.

[RagahRagah]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here’s the basic problem. Madrigal could be the player we saw last year, who would be a 0 WAR player over a full year (his batting average would not stay that high), terrible on the base paths and on defense. Or he could be a good base runner and great defender like we were promised and wind up a 3-4 WAR player. Except for the fact that he wasn’t last year, that’s what I would have expected, but last year was stunningly bad for a player of his pedigree and frankly I would have never guessed he could have been that disappointing. He shouldn’t have been, not with the amount of experience he has. And on top of that, he seems really injury prone.

I simply don’t know what he will be next year. I didn’t see Vaughn at all last year and somehow I feel more confident in him for next year. And that’s the problem - he’s got an enormous possible range, and if the team isn’t confident in him showing substantial improvement, then they are well justified in shopping him.

Stunningly bad?

First 29 games of his fucking career. You really have some ridiculous sized blinders on.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The 2017 Astros won 101 games, had an electronic advantage, added Verlander at the waiver deadline, and they were so talent loaded that SI declared they would win the 2017 World Series 3 years in advance. I will give you the Nats. The 2017 Astros are the definition of a super team. Aside from the Cheating, that’s exactly the level the White Sox need to reach if they want to take a trophy away from the other monster teams out there.

Yea, a super team that gave Mike Fiers 28 starts and a young Lance McCullers 22. Also, had old ass Carlos Beltran as their starting DH and crappy Nori Aoki as their starting LF to begin the season. If they were a super team so are the 2021 White Sox.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

LaStella had a war of .8 compared to Madrigal .5 according to MLB stats.  Not much for a 6.6 million salary differential.  Have you ever considered being a Yankee or Cubs fan?  When everything our team does is "bi***" worthy it can't really be much fun for you.  

By Fangraphs, Madrigal was 0.1, and La Stella was 1.2 WAR. If we take that to a full season, and even assume Madrigal is healthy so double his, that would be a >$25 million value difference. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Stunningly bad?

First 29 games of his fucking career. You really have some ridiculous sized blinders on.

You answer the same question what will Madrigals fWAR be this year and why do you have such confidence in him?

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yea, a super team that gave Mike Fiers 28 starts and a young Lance McCullers 22. Also, had old ass Carlos Beltran as their starting DH and crappy Nori Aoki as their starting LF to begin the season. If they were a super team so are the 2021 White Sox.

Talk about cherry picking.

Houston Astros 2017 fWAR

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/astros/stats?season=2017

• Lineup fWAR (33.8): Altuve 7.6; Correa 5.1; Springer 4.5; Gonzalez 4.0; Bregman 3.5; Reddick 3.4; McCann 2.6; Gurriel 1.7; Marisnick 1.4
• SP fWAR (12.2): Morton 3.1; Peacock 2.9; McCullers Jr. 2.8; Keuchel 2.3; McHugh 1.1 (Verlander 1.0 not counted)

Chicago White Sox 2021 projected fWAR

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=4&lg=all&players=

• Lineup fWAR (23.1): Grandal 4.2; Robert 3.5; Moncada 3.5; Jimenez 3.3; Anderson 2.6; Madrigal 2.4; Abreu 1.8; Eaton 1.5; Collins 0.3
• SP fWAR (12.5): Giolito 4.2; Lynn 3.0; Keuchel 2.6; Cease 1.5; Kopech 1.2

Will some players exceed their projections? Likely, though some will also fall short. Astros staff bolstered by Verlander, a Cy Young pitcher. Don't see the White Sox ever swimming in those waters under current ownership, which is why realistic current speculation of a final piece revolves around 40 year old soft tosser who pitched for Tony decades ago, and the key 2021 acquisition after Hahn proclaimed "our team is on the floor" is a one year rental of a #2 SP.

Hahn's playing with one man short Hoosers analogy is apt, at least when expectations go beyond possibly winning an extremely weak division and actually contending for a World Series. There is a reason all seven Central playoff teams were b****slapped in Round 1 last season upon facing legitimate MLB teams. let alone super teams like the 2017 Astros.

Note - Updated total fWAR Lineup total for Astros.

Edited January 24, 2021 by South Side Hit Men
Note - Updated total fWAR Lineup total for Astros.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

You answer the same question what will Madrigals fWAR be this year and why do you have such confidence in him?

You keep pivoting from the point here.

29 games is not 2 years and it's ridiculous to project such a timetable on him. You need to acknowledge this.

[TomPickle]

20 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

• Lineup fWAR (69.8): Altuve 7.6; Correa 5.1; Springer 4.5; Gonzalez 4.0; Bregman 3.5; Reddick 3.4; McCann 2.6; Gurriel 1.7; Marisnick 1.4 

Might want to check your math there.

[ron883]

25 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Might want to check your math there.

Rats off to ya

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Talk about cherry picking.

Houston Astros 2017 fWAR

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/astros/stats?season=2017

• Lineup fWAR (33.8): Altuve 7.6; Correa 5.1; Springer 4.5; Gonzalez 4.0; Bregman 3.5; Reddick 3.4; McCann 2.6; Gurriel 1.7; Marisnick 1.4
• SP fWAR (12.2): Morton 3.1; Peacock 2.9; McCullers Jr. 2.8; Keuchel 2.3; McHugh 1.1 (Verlander 1.0 not counted)

Chicago White Sox 2021 projected fWAR

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=4&lg=all&players=

• Lineup fWAR (23.1): Grandal 4.2; Robert 3.5; Moncada 3.5; Jimenez 3.3; Anderson 2.6; Madrigal 2.4; Abreu 1.8; Eaton 1.5; Collins 0.3
• SP fWAR (12.5): Giolito 4.2; Lynn 3.0; Keuchel 2.6; Cease 1.5; Kopech 1.2

Will some players exceed their projections? Likely, though some will also fall short. Astros staff bolstered by Verlander, a Cy Young pitcher. Don't see the White Sox ever swimming in those waters under current ownership, which is why realistic current speculation of a final piece revolves around 40 year old soft tosser who pitched for Tony decades ago, and the key 2021 acquisition after Hahn proclaimed "our team is on the floor" is a one year rental of a #2 SP.

Hahn's playing with one man short Hoosers analogy is apt, at least when expectations go beyond possibly winning an extremely weak division and actually contending for a World Series. There is a reason all seven Central playoff teams were b****slapped in Round 1 last season upon facing legitimate MLB teams. let alone super teams like the 2017 Astros.

Note - Updated total fWAR Lineup total for Astros.

This entire post is garbage. You took the top 9 war producing players from the Astros lineup and top 5 WAR producing starting pitchers to make their lineup and staff look better than it was on opening day. Where’s Beltran? Where’s Aoki? Where’s Fiers?  Where’s the bullpens? Try again with the Astros opening day lineup and you’ll see the White Sox projected opening day lineup in 2021 is VERY similar to this 2017 Astros “super team.”

[caulfield12]

35 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This entire post is garbage. You took the top 9 war producing players from the Astros lineup and top 5 WAR producing starting pitchers to make their lineup and staff look better than it was on opening day. Where’s Beltran? Where’s Aoki? Where’s Fiers?  Where’s the bullpens? Try again with the Astros opening day lineup and you’ll see the White Sox projected opening day lineup in 2021 is VERY similar to this 2017 Astros “super team.”

Well, there’s simply no way that Collins will get the majority of DH at-bats.

[he gone.]

Super teams aren’t a thing in baseball. There are tiers. Dodgers & Padres are 1. 
 

everybody else? You can make arguments about - so the Yankees, Braves. Sox. Etc. that’s tier two. 
 

pitching remains #1 no matter what. 
 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, there’s simply no way that Collins will get the majority of DH at-bats.

I didn’t even bother with the Sox side of the equation because it’s still January and they’re not done adding. But for an objective comparison of opening day lineups you have to use this article below from the Astros side. Note players like Beltran, Aoki, Fiers are in there and significantly alter the fWAR totals that the previous poster listed. And like I said, the team totals become nearly identical at that point, especially when you include the projected top bullpen contributors.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/houston-astros-2017-projections-schedule-opening-day-roster-lineup-fantasy-baseball-odds/1qu7jjrdrtggi1gjz37qvll3md

[South Side Hit Men]

5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This entire post is garbage. You took the top 9 war producing players from the Astros lineup and top 5 WAR producing starting pitchers to make their lineup and staff look better than it was on opening day. Where’s Beltran? Where’s Aoki? Where’s Fiers?  Where’s the bullpens? Try again with the Astros opening day lineup and you’ll see the White Sox projected opening day lineup in 2021 is VERY similar to this 2017 Astros “super team.”

What’s garbage is trash fact you can’t realize the fact the Astros were far more talented heading into the season, came into the season with far more depth to fill any holes at their disposal, and were willing to pick up players like a Verlander with $28M salaries to be a legitimate WS contender for years to come. The Dodgers are run the same way, the Padres and Mets are making efforts to compete at that level.

They weren’t dumpster diving for one year rentals (Parrot, Eaton, Mazara), clipping coupons, and trading international bonus money to dump a few hundred thousand in player salary. 

There is ZERO possibility a Reinsdorf owned team would ever pick up an Ace option with a contract like Verlander’s. The entire world knows it, whether or not you choose to accept it.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

20 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

What’s garbage is trash fact you can’t realize the fact the Astros were far more talented heading into the season, came into the season with far more depth to fill any holes at their disposal, and were willing to pick up players like a Verlander with $28M salaries to be a legitimate WS contender for years to come. The Dodgers are run the same way, the Padres and Mets are making efforts to compete at that level.

They weren’t dumpster diving for one year rentals (Parrot, Eaton, Mazara), clipping coupons, and trading international bonus money to dump a few hundred thousand in player salary. 

There is ZERO possibility a Reinsdorf owned team would ever pick up an Ace option with a contract like Verlander’s. The entire world knows it, whether or not you choose to accept it.

Why don’t you update your WAR totals with the correct opening day lineup for the Astros?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Ok, I’ll do it for you. Swap Marisnick with Aoki, Marwin with Beltran, and Peacock with Fiers. Your Astros total comes down to 37 compared to 35.6 for the Sox. Looks comparable to me! And the Sox aren’t done adding so that 35.6 will assuredly be higher by opening day. You can say the Astros had a better bench (possibly) but the Sox have a better bullpen. You can say that the Sox won’t add during the season to further strengthen the team but that’s just speculation.

The FACT is that the projected opening day roster for 2021 White Sox is VERY comparable to the “super team” 2017 Houston Astros. Why is everyone complaining?

[iWiN4PreP]

One target that I think is perfect all things considered at this point in the offseason... German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies.

He will command a package similar to what Corbin Burnes would have. Possibly a bit more, but he'd definitely be the best possible SP we can get assuming Bauer is too expensive and Castillo is not available. 

Further... unlike the Brewers, the Rockies *should* have every possible reason to trade off their assets. Very little has been heard of the Colorado Rockies offseason and I have no idea why they aren't doing something here. Their going absolutely nowhere in the NL West, their players are going to be losing trade value if they wait. Out of all the horrid front offices out there in MLB, the Rockies have to be the absolute worst. They continually not play their young dudes and they've done absolutely nothing so far this year.

Let's will it into existence 

[Y2Jimmy0]

58 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

One target that I think is perfect all things considered at this point in the offseason... German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies.

He will command a package similar to what Corbin Burnes would have. Possibly a bit more, but he'd definitely be the best possible SP we can get assuming Bauer is too expensive and Castillo is not available. 

Further... unlike the Brewers, the Rockies *should* have every possible reason to trade off their assets. Very little has been heard of the Colorado Rockies offseason and I have no idea why they aren't doing something here. Their going absolutely nowhere in the NL West, their players are going to be losing trade value if they wait. Out of all the horrid front offices out there in MLB, the Rockies have to be the absolute worst. They continually not play their young dudes and they've done absolutely nothing so far this year.

Let's will it into existence 

Not gonna happen. Sox love him but they aren’t trading Kopech or Vaughn. 

[SoxBlanco]

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Not gonna happen. Sox love him but they aren’t trading Kopech or Vaughn. 

James, have we shown any interest in Taijuan Walker? 

I know that wouldn’t be a trade, but I don’t think we have a general starting pitcher free agent thread. 

[Whisox05]

 

[South Side Hit Men]

5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Ok, I’ll do it for you. Swap Marisnick with Aoki, Marwin with Beltran, and Peacock with Fiers. Your Astros total comes down to 37 compared to 35.6 for the Sox. Looks comparable to me! And the Sox aren’t done adding so that 35.6 will assuredly be higher by opening day. You can say the Astros had a better bench (possibly) but the Sox have a better bullpen. You can say that the Sox won’t add during the season to further strengthen the team but that’s just speculation.

The FACT is that the projected opening day roster for 2021 White Sox is VERY comparable to the “super team” 2017 Houston Astros. Why is everyone complaining?

Not complaining or trying to attack you. All I said was you were cherry picking a few weaknesses but overall the White Sox still have a ways to go to catch the Astros 2017 team. 

The reason I am stating they are a super team is the fact they won 107, 103 and 101 games the past three full seasons, and appeared in four straight league championship series. Consider the White Sox have never won 101 games in their entire history, and won two pennants in the past century.

How rare is this accomplishment?

MLB Teams with 3 Consecutive 100 Win Seasons (1901-2020)

• 2017-2019 Houston Astros (COVID snuffed out a chance at a four peat)
• 2002-2004 New York Yankees
• 1997-1999 Atlanta Braves
• 1969-1971 Baltimore Orioles (Expansion)
• 1942-1944 Saint Louis Cardinals (World War II)
• 1929-1931 Philadelphia Athletics

MLB Teams with 4 or More Consecutive League Championship Appearances (1969-2020)

• 2017-2020 Houston Astros (1 World Series Championship, 1 AL Pennant)
• 2011-2014 Saint Louis Cardinals (1 World Series, 1 Pennant) 
• 1998-2001 New York Yankees (3 World Series Championships, 1 AL Pennant)
• 1991-1999 Atlanta Braves (1 World Series, 3 NL Pennants) (1994 cancelled - thank you Jerry)
• 1971-1975 Oakland Athletics (3 World Series Championships)

Note: The NY Giants (1921-1924) and NY Yankees (1936-1939; 1949-1953; 1955-1958 and 1960-1964) the two teams who reached four + consecutive WS pre LCS era.

I'd call Houston's reaching both lists the result of being a Super Team.

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

James, have we shown any interest in Taijuan Walker? 

I know that wouldn’t be a trade, but I don’t think we have a general starting pitcher free agent thread. 

I don’t believe so. He’s a poor fit for their park though with his fly ball rate. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don’t believe so. He’s a poor fit for their park though with his fly ball rate. 

That didn't stop them from getting Lynn. His was higher than Walker's last year and Giolito's was about 3% less. Walker was at 40.4 but his career FB rate is usually in the 30's .

His hard hit percentage was very good beating both Lynn and Giolito. However the rest of the statcast data isn't very impressive compared to Lynn and Giolito. I don't know if he is just craftier or was lucky last year. Guessing a bit of both.