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Chuck loves Cease


southsider2k5

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35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The idea that somehow one can fix everyone is so dumb.  The idea that because a pitching coach didn't fix one guy so he can't fix another is also just insane.  It is such a waste of a post.

We are fans..." hope springs eternal."

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On 1/7/2021 at 12:07 PM, mac9001 said:

Ironically Dylan and Dallas have very similar strike throwing profiles. They both avoid the zone, they see heavy contact in the zone, they don't throw a lot of first pitch strikes or generate a lot of swinging strikes. So while I don't necessarily disagree that command it what's holding Dylan back it's clearly possible to be successful with his level of strike throwing. 

In the end if you're going to have success you need to generate value with your fastball and that's where Dylan is falling short. The main reason being his fastball has poor horizontal movement. He was 40% below avg in 2020 and 76% below avg in 2019. I don't see command overcoming a more fundamental issue of his fastball being straight and hittable despite the velocity. Additionally he was getting crushed on his change up. Just like the 4-seamer his change up lacks any h-movement. He's clearly not deceptive enough on the delivery and the velocity difference alone isn't fooling hitters. His change is effectively a low 80s meatball. 

The good news is he did improve quite a bit on h-movement in 2020 over 2019.

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Pitch Value /100

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I noticed this too when I was putting together the numbers and didn't have a great answer for it, other than the differences in the various swing %s and batted ball outcomes is pretty large. And Kuechel's soft contact rate was 18.7% (25th/81) and hard contact rate was 25% (7th/81) while Cease's soft contact rate of 11% (79st/81) and hard contact rate of 36.3% was (62nd/81). 

Throwing first pitch strikes will help, but there's probably more to it than that

 

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https://www.instagram.com/p/CJ9bM6Prat_/?igshid=1jphoteh5asoc

 

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Dylan averaged 18.5in VB his entire career until he dropped to 14-15in 2019-2020. Those seasons he felt on the side of the baseball causing a cutting issue. He has been sitting at 20+VB this offseason. Can’t wait to see how he progresses when his intensity ticks up

 

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