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Hector wrong. Again. - Cruz back with Min


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1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

By the playoffs, Q would be our number 5 at best most likely. 

Gio

Lynn

DK

Kopech/Cease 

Yet, going Lynn/Keuchel doesn't feel like an automatic win, either.

I guess that recency bias of what happened this past fall is going to be used against Keuchel after being so strong for most of the year.

The offense and bullpen is going to carry this team, especially if we can keep Crochet healthy and he emerges as a multiple innings guy.

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15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know u got some nice responses but to me it doesn't feel like EE at all. I never wanted EE , there were plenty of signs he was trending downward. Cruz hasn't slowed down at all. 169 OPS+, 2 WAR as a DH in just 214 plate appearances .397 OBP, .992 OPS. Even if he came down a little from those numbers he would still be one of the best hitters on the Sox full of good hitters. He would really have to have a precipitous drop  to regret signing him.

I certainly understand this, I guess I'm just in the "one year too soon, then a year too late" mentality. So tired of seeing the Sox get burned at the DH the last few years.

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet, going Lynn/Keuchel doesn't feel like an automatic win, either.

I guess that recency bias of what happened this past fall is going to be used against Keuchel after being so strong for most of the year.

The offense and bullpen is going to carry this team, especially if we can keep Crochet healthy and he emerges as a multiple innings guy.

Fair points. But other teams few like we do about their 2 and 3's. Our offense and bullpen are good enough to carry us. I wouldn't be a fan of bringing in Q over other options, but I don't think he starts a playoff game unless he has a great year. I think we need another number 2 or 3. 

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7 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I certainly understand this, I guess I'm just in the "one year too soon, then a year too late" mentality. So tired of seeing the Sox get burned at the DH the last few years.

You just KNOW it's going to stop Cruz at some point, meaning Father Time.

The other reason you MIGHT be hesitant is because of all the time missed LAST season in terms of hitting reps...and then the rustiness of starting late again in 2021.

 

All that said, Josh Donaldson's getting close to being in the same boat, and the Twins will really be hurting if they lose both Buxton and their best starting pitcher to free agency.   

Not to mention the ghosts of Jim Thome and Kenny Rogers/Jose Paniagua from 2010 and 2003.  Go for it!!!

Worst case scenario, you've got Vaughn waiting in the weeds.

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It's kind of funny that Quintana has had a better career than Bauer, yet Bauer wants $35M and Quintana wants $10M.  Even as recently as the last full season played in 2019, they were pretty comparable (Quintana was arguably a little better). 

I'm not saying that Bauer shouldn't get more, but there's zero chance that there's a $25M difference between them. 

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51 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

No I'm with you. Not because I don't think Cruz is better than EE (he is), and not because I don't think he'd make the team better (he would), but because goddammit they need pitching so bad so bad so bad and we all know the money is about to dry up, meaning if they are still gonna get SP, they're going to burn even more of the future in a trade whilst also burning the future in not getting Vaughn/Yermin/Collins ABs that they absolutely need.

#sustainablesuccess

#multiplechampionships

I am actually very sympathetic to your post. I too think pitching is the top priority over anything else. However the Sox could ve decided that with the best lineup in baseball and a top BP that it can carry them pretty far this year in a year that FA pitching is a crapshoot.

Cruz would be a bridge to Vaughn  just as Lynn is a bridge to Cease, Kopech and other youngster who need another year to develop .

I gave up on the hashtags you used a while ago thinking it's just to difficult to do for a franchise that has never done it and an owner who doesn't seem to care about it very much.

Of course it may not be about Cruz at all .

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11 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It's kind of funny that Quintana has had a better career than Bauer, yet Bauer wants $35M and Quintana wants $10M.  Even as recently as the last full season played in 2019, they were pretty comparable (Quintana was arguably a little better). 

I'm not saying that Bauer shouldn't get more, but there's zero chance that there's a $25M difference between them. 

There is a big disconnect between Quintana’s FIP and his Statcast numbers in 2019.  And I really don’t think career numbers matter at all, when one is ascending talent and the other looking to be descending.  It’s definitely possible that Jose ends up being a steal at $10M, but he’s not remotely comparable to Bauer IMO.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is a big disconnect between Quintana’s FIP and his Statcast numbers in 2019.  And I really don’t think career numbers matter at all, when one is ascending talent and the other looking to be descending.  It’s definitely possible that Jose ends up being a steal at $10M, but he’s not remotely comparable to Bauer IMO.

I’m not trying to compare them. I’m saying there’s no way they differ by $25M. 

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21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You just KNOW it's going to stop Cruz at some point, meaning Father Time.

The other reason you MIGHT be hesitant is because of all the time missed LAST season in terms of hitting reps...and then the rustiness of starting late again in 2021.

 

All that said, Josh Donaldson's getting close to being in the same boat, and the Twins will really be hurting if they lose both Buxton and their best starting pitcher to free agency.   

Not to mention the ghosts of Jim Thome and Kenny Rogers/Jose Paniagua from 2010 and 2003.  Go for it!!!

Worst case scenario, you've got Vaughn waiting in the weeds.

In wRc+ last year Cruz was at 164.  That was tied for 7th in all of baseball with Mike Trout. Guys just lower than him include Jose Ramirez , Trea Turner , Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr. Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado.  Abreu was MVP and his was 167 .

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Some other things to think about regarding Cruz. He was paid $14.25 M from 2015-2018, $14M in 2019, and was supposed to make $12M in 2020. I can't see this guy costing or willing to take anything under $10M, as his production doesn't warrant a cheaper contract. He could break the bank for the Sox if they truly are close to their budget.

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7 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Some other things to think about regarding Cruz. He was paid $14.25 M from 2015-2018, $14M in 2019, and was supposed to make $12M in 2020. I can't see this guy costing or willing to take anything under $10M, as his production doesn't warrant a cheaper contract. He could break the bank for the Sox if they truly are close to their budget.

If the Sox were to sign him, I think it may suggest there is more to play with that we all think.

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35 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I’m not trying to compare them. I’m saying there’s no way they differ by $25M. 

To me, it just depends on what version of Bauer you’re getting.  The 2020 version is probably worth $35M while Quintana should be a $10M guy, but that’s based on a 12 start sample and there’s no guarantee you’re getting that guy.

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13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

To me, it just depends on what version of Bauer you’re getting.  The 2020 version is probably worth $35M while Quintana should be a $10M guy, but that’s based on a 12 start sample and there’s no guarantee you’re getting that guy.

But if you include 2018-20, you're getting two really strong years of Bauer and one not so great, yes?

How would those numbers line up ($35 vs. $10 million) if you just aggregated the numbers?

(All that said, with the Indians' offense hurting without Lindor and the only big offense in the division to contend with in MIN, it seems like the right bet, but maybe not until 2022.  Of course, the potential value of Bauer to a starting playoff rotation as a TOR starter in Game 1/2 is pretty darned high.   But still not having any certainty about revenues makes that too big of a bet, at least for Reinsdorf, on a one year deal until Covid-19 has passed and the stands and parking lots are full again.)

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I'm warming up to the idea of signing Cruz. I was hesitant at first because Vaughn is close to ready, supposedly. There is a chance either Cruz or Abreu fall off a cliff next year with their ages (hopefully not both). Having the other around as insurance is a good idea.  

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22 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I'm warming up to the idea of signing Cruz. I was hesitant at first because Vaughn is close to ready, supposedly. There is a chance either Cruz or Abreu fall off a cliff next year with their ages (hopefully not both). Having the other around as insurance is a good idea.  

I think it is possible Nelson Cruz hits like a beast until he is 73 years old.

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I’d give Bauer 35 million for 1 year just to beat the Yankees and Dodgers. Worth every penny, especially if they allow fans in the stands in the second half of the season. I don’t see fans in the stands before July 1st. Avenge 1959 and kick the Yankees ass. 

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Julio Franco is still a free agent, lol.

He actually could be one of those rarities like Minoso that could hit in 5 or 6 decades and not be a complete travesty.

Who was the last hitter at age 39 or 40 who came close to those numbers in the last couple of decades....just Bonds?

 

Looked it up...

  • 10 players who hit the most home runs after turning 40. (USA TODAY Network) ...
  • Barry Bonds — 79. (Phil Carter-USA TODAY Sports) ...
  • Carlton Fisk — 72. (Bob Rosato-USA TODAY Sports) ...
  • Darrell Evans — 60. (USA Today Sports) ...
  • Dave Winfield — 59. (USA TODAY Sports) ...
  • Carl Yastrzemski — 49. ...
  • Stan Musial — 46. ...
  • Ted Williams — 44.
  • Hank Aaron/Raul Ibanez--42
  • Craig Nettles

 

 

 

 

Also, are we 100% sure it's not something about Oscar Colas and the next IFA signing period?

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1 hour ago, ron883 said:

I'm warming up to the idea of signing Cruz. I was hesitant at first because Vaughn is close to ready, supposedly. There is a chance either Cruz or Abreu fall off a cliff next year with their ages (hopefully not both). Having the other around as insurance is a good idea.  

Yes, Jose Abreu the ancient...33 year old...MVP.

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