the old Corbin Burnes thread, we have a new Burnes thread

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox bounty for sucking is Burger, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, and Crochet. Everything else came via trade or signing or draft pick they would have had if they had won 100 games. These guys all signed for around slot, so the extra pool means nothing either. 

You are going to need a couple of these guys if you want this to be sustained, because every year of success, the paychecks get bigger and you know Uncle Jer right now is shitting his pants at a league average payroll. Replacements cost a lot, especially when you are trying to win.

Which is why we should not trade a Vaughn/Kopech/Crochet at this stage, replacing them would prove costly. 

Abreu is not getting any younger, and the Sox can pay Vaughn peanuts for several years.

[YourWhatHurts]

Ok now to reality, who on this site makes this deal:

Crochet + Madrigal + Stiever or Dalquist + Yolbert Sanchez or Cristian Mena for Corbin Burnes + Some MLB bench or inconsequential RP piece

If they want better upside than Kelly, then the next step up is Crochet.  And I also can't see them wanting a package around Crochet without also wanting a SP prospect with some more certainty as insurance.  

[Capital G]

1 minute ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Ok now to reality, who on this site makes this deal:

Crochet + Madrigal + Stiever or Dalquist + Yolbert Sanchez or Cristian Mena for Corbin Burnes + Some MLB bench or inconsequential RP piece

If they want better upside than Kelly, then the next step up is Crochet.  And I also can't see them wanting a package around Crochet without also wanting a SP prospect with some more certainty as insurance.  

Nope

[steveno89]

11 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Ok now to reality, who on this site makes this deal:

Crochet + Madrigal + Stiever or Dalquist + Yolbert Sanchez or Cristian Mena for Corbin Burnes + Some MLB bench or inconsequential RP piece

If they want better upside than Kelly, then the next step up is Crochet.  And I also can't see them wanting a package around Crochet without also wanting a SP prospect with some more certainty as insurance.  

Hard pass. Madrigal/Crochet/Stiever package would have me wanting more than Burnes, that puts you in the conversation for Woodruff.

Vaughn/Kopech/Crochet are untouchables at the moment for the Sox

Edited January 21, 2021 by steveno89

[turnin' two]

6 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Ok now to reality, who on this site makes this deal:

Crochet + Madrigal + Stiever or Dalquist + Yolbert Sanchez or Cristian Mena for Corbin Burnes + Some MLB bench or inconsequential RP piece

If they want better upside than Kelly, then the next step up is Crochet.  And I also can't see them wanting a package around Crochet without also wanting a SP prospect with some more certainty as insurance.  

No, and I don't need to think about it for even 1 second.

[YourWhatHurts]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox bounty for sucking is Burger, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, and Crochet. Everything else came via trade or signing or draft pick they would have had if they had won 100 games. These guys all signed for around slot, so the extra pool means nothing either. 

You are going to need a couple of these guys if you want this to be sustained, because every year of success, the paychecks get bigger and you know Uncle Jer right now is shitting his pants at a league average payroll. Replacements cost a lot, especially when you are trying to win.

The Cubs couldn't even do it. I bet they wish they just signed a 4th starter instead of paying up for Q. I bet they wish they went a tier lower for a closer when the traded for Chapman and still had Gleyber.  Trading away your top guys when they seem to have very nice futures makes the window close quick.

If you look at the Cubs, they traded Cease, Eloy, and Gleybar as "smaller" centerpieces whose values would have grown immensely had they waited another 6 months to a year.  

Personally I don't blame Theo and their FO.  They were under more pressure than any other team in baseball and maybe under more pressure than other other US team in major professional sports to actually win a title and break the loser image, so they managed things in a way that was a little more desperate.

OTOH, I think because the Sox have 2005, at the very least, they should try to let their young guys get to that next level where, if they are still traded, they can bring back a higher level of talent.  The Cubs for all of those guys still just got a half year of a closer and like 3 years of a mid-rotation starter.

[steveno89]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

If you look at the Cubs, they traded Cease, Eloy, and Gleybar as "smaller" centerpieces whose values would have grown immensely had they waited another 6 months to a year.  

Personally I don't blame Theo and their FO.  They were under more pressure than any other team in baseball and maybe under more pressure than other other US team in major professional sports to actually win a title and break the loser image, so they managed things in a way that was a little more desperate.

OTOH, I think because the Sox have 2005, at the very least, they should try to let their young guys get to that next level where, if they are still traded, they can bring back a higher level of talent.  The Cubs for all of those guys still just got a half year of a closer and like 3 years of a mid-rotation starter.

Cubs were in the thick of their contention window and badly needed Chapman to help them get over the top...and it worked out. Any smart Cubs fan would trade Torres all day for that 2016 World Series victory

[Dick Allen]

Burnes is 50 inning removed from a season his ERA approached 9.00. The Brewers would be selling hign, and if they are selling, considering they are in a position to win, they may know something. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

There haven't been near enough examples to know this. If he has a workout and looks good and feels good, he's worth a flyer on. He has good upside.

Not entirely true. This is two years old, but provides a good analysis of how guys perform after the diagnosis. It’s not a good thing. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/

[turnin' two]

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/garrett-crochet-100-mph-pitches

I'm sorry, why entertain trading this dude?  It looks like a reasonable floor is an Andrew Miller type, a likely outcome is an Aroldis Chapman type, a good outcome is a Chris Sale type and if he puts it all together and hits his ceiling.... well, grab some bench, everyone.

Edited January 21, 2021 by turnin' two

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Cubs were in the thick of their contention window and badly needed Chapman to help them get over the top...and it worked out. Any smart Cubs fan would trade Torres all day for that 2016 World Series victory

I think they could have traded for another closer with a smaller price tag and still won the WS. Chapman wasn't exactly nails in the playoffs.

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox bounty for sucking is Burger, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, and Crochet. Everything else came via trade or signing or draft pick they would have had if they had won 100 games. These guys all signed for around slot, so the extra pool means nothing either. 

You are going to need a couple of these guys if you want this to be sustained, because every year of success, the paychecks get bigger and you know Uncle Jer right now is shitting his pants at a league average payroll. Replacements cost a lot, especially when you are trying to win.

The Cubs couldn't even do it. I bet they wish they just signed a 4th starter instead of paying up for Q. I bet they wish they went a tier lower for a closer when the traded for Chapman and still had Gleyber.  Trading away your top guys when they seem to have very nice futures makes the window close quick.

In a vacuum, yeah. But Jerry isn't carrying a payroll that wins 100 games and allowing Hahn to do his massive tear down and sign Luis Robert at the same time. While pretty much most of the fliers didn't work out (the Cordell, Medeiros, Forbes, etc. guys), it was worth shooting a shot for another Rios-for-Leury type deal while letting the big gets (Moncada, Gio, Eloy) get their reps in.

[YourWhatHurts]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Cubs were in the thick of their contention window and badly needed Chapman to help them get over the top...and it worked out. Any smart Cubs fan would trade Torres all day for that 2016 World Series victory

I agree.  That was great for them, but I wouldn't do it for us now.  

Just remember how close the Cubs were losing to the Indians in the WS.  I mean they were like a couple innings away from a WS loss.  And even though they improved their team after that year, they never got any closer.  

It's easy to say you'd trade this or that player for a WS title, but that title is no guarantee.  If you lose, and you shorten your contention window by several years in the process, and then you end up in the state that the Cubs are in now, but without a title, you're probably pretty pissed about it.

[EloyJenkins]

47 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Wait, we’re worried about TLR sticking with a pitcher that is pitching well? 

The only way Kopech gets blocked is if all five pitchers stay healthy and pitch well. And I wouldn’t call that a problem. I’d call that a dream scenario. 

Sorry, i wrote that wrong...If Wainright is healthy...I don't see him getting taken out of rotation...not his results. This is one of those stubborn TLR type things I could see..."not removing my guy" whatever the results are.  As others have said...this means Cease is pitching well though, so it's a good thing. 

[Dick Allen]

Just now, turnin' two said:

I'm sorry, why entertain trading this dude?  It looks like a reasonable floor is an Andrew Miller type, a likely outcome is an Aroldis Chapman type, a good outcome is a Chris Sale type and if he puts it all together and hits his ceiling.... well, grab some bench, everyone.

We are basing all of our love on 5 IP. The concerning thing is he was held out in college, and he wound up hurt with the Sox.  Crazier things have happened. I would never have thought Sale would make it as long as he did before the doctor came calling. Can the Sox do it again? 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

In a vacuum, yeah. But Jerry isn't carrying a payroll that wins 100 games and allowing Hahn to do his massive tear down and sign Luis Robert at the same time. While pretty much most of the fliers didn't work out (the Cordell, Medeiros, Forbes, etc. guys), it was worth shooting a shot for another Rios-for-Leury type deal while letting the big gets (Moncada, Gio, Eloy) get their reps in.

But that is all part of it. If you are trading your cheap guys now, the guys that might be on team friendly deals when it is time to retool again, you are screwed. What if the Sox didn't have Eaton and Sale and Q to trade? They would suck ass.  It can be avoided if you are willing to go at least close to luxury tax territory. But that isn't ever going to happen.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Dick Allen

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

We are basing all of our love on 5 IP. The concerning thing is he was held out in college, and he wound up hurt with the Sox.  Crazier things have happened. I would never have thought Sale would make it as long as he did before the doctor came calling. Can the Sox do it again? 

It would never happen but I would've shopped Crochet heavily this offseason. His value will never be higher, IMO, and if you could get a Burnes type or a stud RF with control, that's an easy trade for me to make

[turnin' two]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

We are basing all of our love on 5 IP. The concerning thing is he was held out in college, and he wound up hurt with the Sox.  Crazier things have happened. I would never have thought Sale would make it as long as he did before the doctor came calling. Can the Sox do it again? 

Yeah, we sure are.  And injuries can change everything.  But Crochet seems to have a "skies the limit" type ceiling, without a complete bomb out floor.  If he puts it together, he could be one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball, and he isn't years away.  I don't know why any team would trade that.  

[YourWhatHurts]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

But that is all part of it. If you are trading your cheap guys now, the guys that might be on team friendly deals when it is time to retool again, you are screwed. What if the Sox didn't have Eaton and Sale and Q to trade? They would suck ass.  It can be avoided if you are willing to go at least close to luxury tax territory. But that isn't ever going to happen.

If the Sox keep the right prospects, they may be able to trade a guy like Giolito, Moncada, Eloy, etc later on once it has been realized that they will not be extended further.  If we already have a core at that point, then theoretically a deal like that could open up a lot of payroll space and bring back a couple quality prospects, and the organization can perhaps continue on playing meaningful baseball in hopes of yearly contention instead of having to rebuild again.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, turnin' two said:

Yeah, we sure are.  And injuries can change everything.  But Crochet seems to have a "skies the limit" type ceiling, without a complete bomb out floor.  If he puts it together, he could be one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball, and he isn't years away.  I don't know why any team would trade that.  

Several teams passed on him in June for other lottery picks, so I would say they  are out there.

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

It would never happen but I would've shopped Crochet heavily this offseason. His value will never be higher, IMO, and if you could get a Burnes type or a stud RF with control, that's an easy trade for me to make

That is false. If Crochet stays healthy and deals this year I could see his value skyrocketing. There are not many LHP on earth that can throw a baseball like him. 

The floor, assuming health, looks to be a solid setup man. The ceiling is Randy Johnson. 

[turnin' two]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Several teams passed on him in June for other lottery picks, so I would say they  are out there.

Do you think his value has improved since then?  

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

If the Sox keep the right prospects, they may be able to trade a guy like Giolito, Moncada, Eloy, etc later on once it has been realized that they will not be extended further.  If we already have a core at that point, then theoretically a deal like that could open up a lot of payroll space and bring back a couple quality prospects, and the organization can perhaps continue on playing meaningful baseball in hopes of yearly contention instead of having to rebuild again.

Yes.  There is always going to be turnover. Some guys will get hurt. Some guys will eventually suck. Some guys may become disenchanted. The Cubs are a cautionary tale. They didn't have cheap guys that could come it when all of their other guys got expensive at the same time. And they are very different than the White Sox. If the White Sox roster was at Clark and Addison, they would have gone for Springer and/or Bauer, and Theo wouldn't have left. So if they can't afford it, the Sox can't. 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Do you think his value has improved since then?  

Maybe, but it's 5 innings. And an injury. The injury part was one reason he was still on the board. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

dude gets limited views in an insane scouting year, sox take that chance, he gets up to minors in SAME YEAR and dominates MAJOR LEAGUE HITTERS IN A DIVISION RACE AND PLAYOFF GAME struck out 37% of hitters faced and a .5 WHIP all while throwing the easiest upper 90s we've seen.

I'm sure a couple teams that passed on him re evaluated.