Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap

[Rounding_Third]

9 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I think your grades are spot on and cover most or all of the offseason so far.

I would say Targetting World Series more like a D tho. 

We are not in the same league as the top dogs (Padres/Dodgers/NL Eats Machines/Possible NYY)

agreed

agreed

agreed - Toronto & Mets coming on, Houston & Oakland still formidable.  BoSOx making noise.

With one other exception, relying on Zack Collins is an F.   Those stats (O & D) the last 2 years for a BUC couldn't be worse for a major league C.  He's got the talent, has to figure it out in the minors and get back up ASAP.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Rounding_Third

[Balta1701]

21 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

They need to extend Gio and Lynn.

If this team is struggling to afford a $120 million payroll right now, they already have $117 million on the books for next year before any arbitration cases are offered, and obviously if not extended Giolito will get offered even if terrible things happen. 

Can they afford to have $145 million on the books for next year without having to sell off a player?

[KrankinSox]

2 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I mean, I’m going based on his track record. His signings the last few years have been putrid. If La Russa influenced Lynn, Eaton and Hendriks, that’s better than what Hahn usually puts up. Lol

Putrid is a little harsh. Keuchel and Grandal have worked out so far. McCann was a great find. The Narvaez-Colome trade was a win.

Yes, I'm aware of Alonso, Encarnacion, Jon Jay, etc. But it hasn't been ALL bad.

[Jack Parkman]

26 minutes ago, fathom said:

This team as currently constructed has no chance to cover 162 starts.

^^^^^^^

They cannot afford Giolito, Keuchel or Lynn to miss one start all season as currently constructed. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[Rounding_Third]

1 minute ago, KrankinSox said:

Putrid is a little harsh. Keuchel and Grandal have worked out so far. McCann was a great find. The Narvaez-Colome trade was a win.

Yes, I'm aware of Alonso, Encarnacion, Jon Jay, etc. But it hasn't been ALL bad.

I like Grandal a lot but think his signing was unnecessary and, yes, I thought so then.  If they had extended McCann after 2019 at 4yr$32m they would have saved $10m AAV for future spending, er, I mean in the bank.  Think of the interest JR could have earned! 

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

^^^^^^^

They cannot afford Giolito, Keuchel or Lynn to miss one start all season as currently constructed. 

Keuchel didn’t exactly look healthy last year with his back.

[35thstreetswarm]

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

Then maybe he should muzzle his GM who announced we are ready to compete for championships. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

That's fine. Except, in that context - the moves this offseason make no sense. Giving up Dunning for Lynn, trading 6 years of control for 1 and using up 1/3 of the payroll you can add this offseason in the process, is very much an all in style move. Signing the best closer on the market and spending the next half of your available funds on him is very much a "win right now this year" move. 

If we were playing the long game, there's a different way to do it. Hold onto young guys like Dunning, continue developing them, take advantage of them being cheap this year. Sign cheaper options - Colome or Hand instead of Hendricks. Sign guys for depth - Quintana or Richards or whoever your pitching coach likes. 

They're trying to thread this needle of "hurting ourselves in the future just enough to help this year, but not so much that it hurts us a lot", and it has left them with weaknesses this year and long term.

[fathom]

I think the following are all quite likely:

- Sox didn’t save as much during the rebuild as you think due to awful attendance and sponsorships 

- Sox lost a lot of money in 2020

- Jerry doesn’t think they will have fans this year

- He knows there will be a strike in 2021

[Orlando]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think the following are all quite likely:

- Sox didn’t save as much during the rebuild as you think due to awful attendance and sponsorships 

- Sox lost a lot of money in 2020

- Jerry doesn’t think they will have fans this year

- He knows there will be a strike in 2021

I agree with all this. 

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think the following are all quite likely:

- Sox didn’t save as much during the rebuild as you think due to awful attendance and sponsorships 

- Sox lost a lot of money in 2020

- Jerry doesn’t think they will have fans this year

- He knows there will be a strike in 2021

I think you are missing that they believed attendance would spike when they were competitive and they had 0 revenue from that last year with no promise of any this year.

[35thstreetswarm]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That's fine. Except, in that context - the moves this offseason make no sense. Giving up Dunning for Lynn, trading 6 years of control for 1 and using up 1/3 of the payroll you can add this offseason in the process, is very much an all in style move. Signing the best closer on the market and spending the next half of your available funds on him is very much a "win right now this year" move. 

If we were playing the long game, there's a different way to do it. Hold onto young guys like Dunning, continue developing them, take advantage of them being cheap this year. Sign cheaper options - Colome or Hand instead of Hendricks. Sign guys for depth - Quintana or Richards or whoever your pitching coach likes. 

They're trying to thread this needle of "hurting ourselves in the future just enough to help this year, but not so much that it hurts us a lot", and it has left them with weaknesses this year and long term.

Not necessarily.  As you say, they may be trying to thread the needle" a little bit.  Assuming this mindset, the thinking goes:  you don't want to backslide, and want to address the glaring weaknesses that would all but preclude us from succeeding in the playoffs based on what they saw last year.  So you get rid of the shitty manager who basically lost on purpose down the stretch; you get an actual third playoff starter where before you didn't have one; you replace the potted plant in RF with an actual living person; and you replace the closer (with a guy on a four-year deal, so that fits the longer window).  You do this so you can take a credible shot this year (without going too crazy), without sacrificing the key long-term pieces. 

And before you say "but Dunning!", I think they just don't view him as an irreplaceable long-term piece.

Edited January 28, 2021 by 35thstreetswarm

[SonofaRoache]

14 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

The Sox are typically 4th or 5th in odds to win the world series and 2nd to win the AL. Teams coming out of rebuilds have that first year of barely making the playoffs or missing it, and then boom, title contention. Year 1 was last year, now we are in championship mode.

[35thstreetswarm]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

The Sox are typically 4th or 5th in odds to win the world series and 2nd to win the AL. Teams coming out of rebuilds have that first year of barely making the playoffs or missing it, and then boom, title contention. Year 1 was last year, now we are in championship mode.

I don't disagree.  I'm just positing a scenario/mindset that might plausibly explain Jerry's hesitance to spend.

[southsideirish71]

11 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Not necessarily.  As you say, they may be trying to thread the needle" a little bit.  Assuming this mindset, the thinking goes:  you don't want to backslide, and want to address the glaring weaknesses that would all but preclude us from succeeding in the playoffs based on what they saw last year.  So you get rid of the shitty manager who basically lost on purpose down the stretch; you get an actual third playoff starter where before you didn't have one; you replace the potted plant in RF with an actual living person; and you replace the closer (with a guy on a four-year deal, so that fits the longer window).  You do this so you can take a credible shot this year (without going too crazy), without sacrificing the key long-term pieces. 

 And before you say "but Dunning!", I think they just don't view him as an irreplaceable long-term piece.

You replace the manager with the owner's bestie.  Not the guy who was part of the original vision of what a manager was.

You replace the potted plant in RF with a guy who likes to go on the DL.  Sure he is better.  But whoops he dove and he is hurt, whoops he slid into 2nd trying to stretch a single and he is hurt, whoops he crashed into the wall and he is hurt.  He was healthy for 2019.  Before that, some 60 day DL trips and he even got hurt last year.  I hope he stays healthy but I don't know if I would be ready to bet the farm on it.  

You get a third playoff starter that will be here for one year and one year only.

And you get your closer.  

 

So adding a player in RF who might be injured, a geriatric manager, and a one year pitcher and a closer for a long time.  Sounds like a short term run to me.

Edited January 28, 2021 by southsideirish71

[South Side Hit Men]

9 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I mean, I’m going based on his track record. His signings the last few years have been putrid. If La Russa influenced Lynn, Eaton and Hendriks, that’s better than what Hahn usually puts up. Lol

Hahn’s strengths are:

1. Negotiating Contracts.
2. Convincing Dinosaurs (JR KW) to enter the 21st century
3. Allowing Marco Paddy to do his great job
4. Evaluating / Extending quality internal players

I appreciate his efforts attempting to stop the TLDR fiasco.

Hahn or Renteria were never given a legitimate chance to fully engage in their role. Hahn has never been allowed to hire a manager, and Ricky never had a chance to manage a competitive team with more than one solid playoff starter, or even construct his coaching staff.

Hahn’s primary weakness coming into this period is player acquisition in a competitive window. 2013-2016 was abysmal, but can’t tell how much meddling KW had to do with it. Sox WL records were the same as during the tanking years. Ventura is a terrible manager, didn’t even want to be here, but he had little to work with.

It will take a few more years to see how Hahn’s recent acquisitions (Grandal, Keuchel, Hendricks) play out, and if he can extend the right current players once their cheap contracts expire. I don’t think they expected to be competitive last year, and only were due to COVID and the resulting 60 Game Central Division Schedule.

The jury is still out on whether Tony is in charge. I’ll put a poll out as to who is in charge if Molina, Wainright and/or Pujols are also brought in to keep Tony happy.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

20 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

I don’t think this has any chance to be true. He straight up hired his best friend to manage the team. You don’t convince LaRussa out of retirement unless you think you have a chance to win it all. I’m hoping this is Jerry’s swan song. However long LaRussa is with the team (3 years?) then he’s done with this franchise. So we have this season, and 2023 to win it all. I didn’t include 2022, because Jerry will be busy ensuring there is a strike.

[southsideirish71]

3 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I don’t think this has any chance to be true. He straight up hired his best friend to manage the team. You don’t convince LaRussa out of retirement unless you think you have a chance to win it all. I’m hoping this is Jerry’s swan song. However long LaRussa is with the team (3 years?) then he’s done with this franchise. So we have this season, and 2023 to win it all. I didn’t include 2022, because Jerry will be busy ensuring there is a strike.

And if this goes sideways in 2023 and Gio isn't locked up.  Then its a "refresh" to try it again.  Because of losses due to no games in 2022.  Same guy was part of the 1994 fiasco and cost that team its window, I am not above saying that he doesn't care and will do the same here to guard against future losses.  

Edited January 28, 2021 by southsideirish71

[Jack Parkman]

24 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I don’t think this has any chance to be true. He straight up hired his best friend to manage the team. You don’t convince LaRussa out of retirement unless you think you have a chance to win it all. I’m hoping this is Jerry’s swan song. However long LaRussa is with the team (3 years?) then he’s done with this franchise. So we have this season, and 2023 to win it all. I didn’t include 2022, because Jerry will be busy ensuring there is a strike.

You know the difference between a strike and a lockout, right? 

The players can't strike this year while they could in 1994 because in '94 the owners chose to play with no CBA and did not lock out the players. In 2021 the CBA is still in effect. They have to play legally unless the owners attempt Force Majeure to stop the season, which then goes to court. 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

46 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

One possibility that doesn't get discussed enough is that Jerry might not be totally convinced we've reached the "all-in" part of the window yet.  Most of us feel we're in year one of the contention window, but maybe Jerry's just not there yet.  The team seems to be proceeding with the caution you'd expect at the very early part of a contention window, before you've 100% dialed in team needs, and are still in wait-and-see mode with pieces of your roster (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc.)  Maybe Jerry needs REAL success -- like an ALCS -- before he'll open up the pocketbook.  Hell, it took an actual WS in 2005 to propel us to the top of the payroll heap.

The five stages of grief are:

• denial.
• anger.
• bargaining.
• depression.
• acceptance.

I think you are in the bargaining stage.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You know the difference between a strike and a lockout, right? 

The players can't strike this year while they could in 1994 because in '94 the owners chose to play with no CBA and did not lock out the players. In 2021 the CBA is still in effect. They have to play legally unless the owners attempt Force Majeure to stop the season, which then goes to court. 

 

You realize that he said 2022 would be the season with no baseball, not 2021 right?

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You realize that he said 2022 would be the season with no baseball, not 2021 right?

Yes. If there's no baseball then it will likely be a lockout vs a strike. A strike could only happen if the owners choose not to lockout the players first. There's no chance of a repeat of 1994 because the CBA has not expired yet. 

I thought we were discussing the potential for a mid-season strike in 2021 followed by no baseball in 2022. Not happening because the circumstances are different. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[35thstreetswarm]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The five stages of grief are:

• denial.
• anger.
• bargaining.
• depression.
• acceptance.

I think you are in the bargaining stage.

I'm hopeful that watching Luis Robert batting 7th in my favorite team's lineup will help me through my "grieving" process.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'm hopeful that watching Luis Robert batting 7th in my favorite team's lineup will help me through my "grieving" process.

Hey I agree it's a fun team just not quite what we thought it could be.  Making excuses for Reinsdorf by trying to look at it from his point of view is admirable but strange based on his past behavior. I think saying Covid has a lot to do with it is the only way to look at it if you are going to give Reinsdorf an out.