southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Jack Parkman said: What I see in baseball right now is the overwhelming majority of teams, with the exception of the Padres and Blue Jays so far, cutting payroll or remaining neutral from last year. I see the Pittsburgh Pirates trading everyone with a guaranteed contract away. Even the Dodgers and Yankees have cut payroll so far. Those are the very worst teams, and this a year where baseball is missing $100 million in revenue per team on average. The fact that teams are cutting this year is COMPLETELY obvious. if you are going to pretend that this is normal behavior, there isn't really an honest discussion to be had here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Those are the very worst teams, and this a year where baseball is missing $100 million in revenue per team on average. The fact that teams are cutting this year is COMPLETELY obvious. if you are going to pretend that this is normal behavior, there isn't really an honest discussion to be had here. Have you been paying attention to baseball at all over the last 5 years? This isn't normal behavior, I'd agree.......and it is completely obvious........however it is a continuation of a trend that has been happening for half a decade.....and the pandemic is a built in excuse for the owners to put the spending cuts into hyperdrive. Ever since the Astros and Cubs showed the rest of baseball how to do the rebuild thing, it has been either an in or out with no middle ground system in baseball. You know who the playoff teams are going to be every year generally, because the gap between the playoff teams and the non-playoff teams is very high. Edited January 31, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Is there a way to have 7 playoff teams and give the top 3 byes? Then they’re all rewarded. 4v7 and 5v6. Then the winners of those face each other to see who plays the 1 seed. How long would 1-3 need to sit on this scenario? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: Have you been paying attention to baseball at all over the last 5 years? This isn't normal behavior, I'd agree.......and it is completely obvious........however it is a continuation of a trend that has been happening for half a decade.....and the pandemic is a built in excuse for the owners to put the spending cuts into hyperdrive. Do you even think to fact check yourself? From 2014 to 2019, MLB total payrolls went up from $3.45 billion to 4 billion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Do you even think to fact check yourself? From 2014 to 2019, MLB total payrolls went up from $3.45 billion to 4 billion. That's due to salary inflation. The best players are getting paid more, the average players are getting paid less or squeezed out. I've pretty much had it. We can agree to disagree here. In 2015 Max Scherzer got a 7 year, $214M deal. In 2020, Gerrit Cole got a 9 year, $336M deal. That's where the increase is happening. At the top. Just like everywhere else. Edited January 31, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The Miami Heat are using Covid sniffing dogs checking their fans as the come in. Supposedly they have a 94% accuracy rate. This could be a game changer and get at least limited fans into parks fairly soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Jack Parkman said: That's due to salary inflation. The best players are getting paid more, the average players are getting paid less or squeezed out. I've pretty much had it. We can agree to disagree here. Nice goal post move. There will always be teams looking to cut dollars, even in good times. The temptation will always be bigger for teams who look at things and know they can't compete. But the league as a whole has seen a steady increase in payrolls. until the destruction of a large piece of the revenue flow. An increase of $650 million for the same basic amount of players is nearly a million dollars per player more on average. The top players in the league aren't making $50 million a year to explain that extra $20+ million per team going to JUST them. Look at it this way. IN 2014 one team had a payroll of over $200 million. 6 came in over $150 million. 16 were over $100 million. In 2019 that was 3 teams >$200m, 10 > $150m, and 23 over $100 million. More teams were spending more money. Clearly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitetrain8601 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Manfred and MLB are the worst. How much time did you have to prepare for this upcoming season, you're a week or two away from when pitchers and catchers are to report and you still have nothing solidified. Disgusting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Nice goal post move. There will always be teams looking to cut dollars, even in good times. The temptation will always be bigger for teams who look at things and know they can't compete. But the league as a whole has seen a steady increase in payrolls. until the destruction of a large piece of the revenue flow. An increase of $650 million for the same basic amount of players is nearly a million dollars per player more on average. The top players in the league aren't making $50 million a year to explain that extra $20+ million per team going to JUST them. Look at it this way. IN 2014 one team had a payroll of over $200 million. 6 came in over $150 million. 16 were over $100 million. In 2019 that was 3 teams >$200m, 10 > $150m, and 23 over $100 million. More teams were spending more money. Clearly. How much of that is because the higher salaries of the stars have moved the goalposts in arbitration? Aren't 3rd to 6th year players getting higher arbitration awards as well? IIRC someone set a new record for an arbitration award every year from 2016-20. We'd have to dig into this and see how much is by choice and how much is the system doing what it's intended to do. I'm open to the possibility that it isn't eaten up by the top FA or top arbitration eligible players, but I'm pretty skeptical. Edited January 31, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: How much of that is because the higher salaries of the stars have moved the goalposts in arbitration? Aren't 3rd to 6th year players getting higher arbitration awards as well? IIRC someone set a new record for an arbitration award every year from 2016-20. We'd have to dig into this and see how much is by choice and how much is the system doing what intended to do. There haven’t been any spending cuts until Covid. In fact payroll inflation approached 20% over the last 5 normal seasons. Unless you have some actual evidence, your feelings aren't reflected in the numbers at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: There haven’t been any spending cuts until Covid. In fact payroll inflation approached 20% over the last 5 normal seasons. Unless you have some actual evidence, your feelings aren't reflected in the numbers at all. I think overall payroll league wide is a misleading measure. I'd run it into 3 groups: 1) consistent playoff teams 2) teams that have won 78+ games 3) tanking teams I think looking at groups 2 and 3 will give a more accurate reflection of what's happening league wide. Teams may be spending more on payroll, but the competitive balance sure isn't there. Also, how much have revenues expanded from 2014-2019? Edited January 31, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I think overall payroll league wide is a misleading measure. I'd run it into 3 groups: 1) consistent playoff teams 2) teams that have won 78+ games 3) tanking teams I think looking at groups 2 and 3 will give a more accurate reflection of what's happening league wide. This has nothing to do with the league wide spending cuts you were just telling us that had happened over the 5 years, that didn't actually happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) I’d give it two years before I never sat down watched a baseball game again if they expand to 16 teams. What’s the point? the playoff teams are decided in March, and the playoffs themselves are totally random. Fuck all that. Edited January 31, 2021 by mqr 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: This has nothing to do with the league wide spending cuts you were just telling us that had happened over the 5 years, that didn't actually happen. Ok, there's a misunderstanding here. The teams at the top compete with each other. They spend. The teams in the middle to the bottom....what are they doing? Are they trying to get to the top or the bottom? I think we know what's happening there. I also don't think that we can have an honest discussion about this unless we have some sort of inflation indicator for MLB payrolls and CPI itself. 100M in 2011 is not the same as 100M in 2021. In that span we've had the best players go from getting 200M in a contract to nearly 400M. Edited January 31, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 38 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Is there a way to have 7 playoff teams and give the top 3 byes? Then they’re all rewarded. 4v7 and 5v6. Then the winners of those face each other to see who plays the 1 seed. How long would 1-3 need to sit on this scenario? I think if it were 7 teams, it would have to be one team bye. 6 other teams = 3 move on plus the bye team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'd be ok expanding to 6 playoff teams in each league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said: Good point about spending incentives. Yet another reason for the union to reject this If those teams #18-30 have almost no chance to make the playoffs, why not strip down to the screws with $25-30 million payrolls? Therein lies the problem. Last year, many teams like the Reds and Padres were incentivized to at least compete for a playoff spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 37 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: There haven’t been any spending cuts until Covid. In fact payroll inflation approached 20% over the last 5 normal seasons. Unless you have some actual evidence, your feelings aren't reflected in the numbers at all. AP study: MLB average at around $4.4M for 5th year in row NEW YORK (AP) — Major League Baseball’s average salary ahead of a postponed opening day remained at around $4.4 million for the fifth straight season, according to a study of contracts by The Associated Press. Following an offseason when Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon and Christian Yelich all agreed to $200 million-plus deals, the flattened salary curve is evidence of a shrinking portion of the pie for baseball’s middle class. The stagnant stretch is unprecedented since the free-agent era dawned in 1976. https://apnews.com/article/e4ec65ed068d9b636ac9c302453eac26 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I suggest all of you who think that expanded playoffs are a good idea, read this thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 No more watching actually good teams Duke it out. Instead, enjoying watching to see if a dog shit Marlins team can squeak in at 80-82 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, mqr said: No more watching actually good teams Duke it out. Instead, enjoying watching to see if a dog shit Marlins team can squeak in at 80-82 It would suck if the best teams were in the 88-92 win range and the lower level playoff teams were in the 80-82 win range. What I think would happen is that most seasons there's a blob between 80-89 wins and those are your playoff teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This notion that the baseball bracket is random is false. The top teams will make the playoffs in any given year. The champion is more often than not a team that deserved the title. The last several Champs. Dodgers- deserving Nationals- got really hot, but had great pitching for years but couldn't get past the Cubs. Red Sox- deserving Astros- deserving based on results Cubs- deserving Royals- deserving Giants- deserving Red Sox- deserving I get that a short series can go either way, but the cream mostly rises to the top. Last year the Dodgers and Rays were the two best teams in each league coming into the season, during the season, and in the playoffs. They advanced even with a short season and expanded playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The one thing you have to be careful with is letting the top teams sit too long...which used to be really tough on hitters in cold weather stadiums. That said, momentum is your next day’s starting pitcher. The Padres had a near-miraculous comeback against the Cardinals but ran into a buzz saw in LA, which was clearly the superior team this year. AL/NL Central teams were all clearly flawed, and that showed up in the results. The Twins lost again. The A’s were shocked to actually advance a round. Now we can argue the Astros weren’t deserving, but that’s not the same thing as saying they didn’t have a lot of talented players remaining on their roster. In a normal year, pretty sure Houston is one of those teams on the outside looking in, but it was only a 60 game schedule, so impossible to know for sure what transpires over a full 154-162 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: This notion that the baseball bracket is random is false. The top teams will make the playoffs in any given year. The champion is more often than not a team that deserved the title. The last several Champs. Dodgers- deserving Nationals- got really hot, but had great pitching for years but couldn't get past the Cubs. Red Sox- deserving Astros- deserving based on results Cubs- deserving Royals- deserving Giants- deserving Red Sox- deserving I get that a short series can go either way, but the cream mostly rises to the top. Last year the Dodgers and Rays were the two best teams in each league coming into the season, during the season, and in the playoffs. They advanced even with a short season and expanded playoffs. You’d really have to go back to some of the Cardinals teams or 87/91 Twins with the massive home field advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm anti-zero sum game, not anti ownership. Don't be condescending to me. Economics is a hobby of mine. I tend to focus on the practical side rather than the theoretical side. (hint-practical side says theory is incorrect) They say that a rising tide should lift all boats, but everywhere in American society that's not happening. Think win-win. The owners think win-lose. They make more money and engage in anticompetitive behavior. That's not how it should work. I'm all for being reasonable, but generally, people need to make a living wage and in the upper reaches like Baseball, owners are not sharing enough of the revenue with the players. I'm not saying that owners shouldn't turn a profit, but I am saying that the proportion of profit to salaries/wages is out of whack. Not just in baseball, but everywhere. Living wage arguments fall on deaf ears when you talk about millionaire ballplayers vs billionaire owners. If this was an argument that ballclubs should hold down the cost of a hotdog, ticket, parking, beer, and soda I would be all in. I really fear that we are approaching when fans are in decline because they can't afford to attend it. For those of you who haven't gone to a minor league game...you're missing a treat. A great seat costs $10 and the food price is like fast food pricing anywhere. Parking can be free up to a few bucks. No wonder they have nice crowds where I have gone. The fan pays the freight on this great sport...owners and players should do more to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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