Did the Sox make the right moves this offseason given the money they have spent?

[Vulture]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because there are eight innings that happen before the 9th.  There are also major holes in the starting rotation as it stands now, with some really good relievers already in the pen who  might have been able to step into the closers role, or someone cheaper out there to do that job.  Even a mediocre starter going to cover triple the innings that a closer will, and if the starters are bad, it doesn't matter how good your closer is.

I’d have to disagree. In today’s game, wins and losses come in the last three to four innings, generally speaking. With Hendriks, who can and has pitched up to three innings in an outing, Sox can have those other excellent relievers coming into the game in the fifth and sixth innings. I wouldn’t consider having Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon, Seiver and Lopez to cover the last two spots as major holes either. Pretty sure that is well above average talent to cover 4/5 spots of a rotation.

[Vulture]

That said I still would have preferred a Quintana signing in addition.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, VAfan said:

But if you can't close, it doesn't matter how good your starters are. Look at the Nationals. They had a terrible bullpen and it cost them a lot of games. They won the World Series because they got a closer (former White Sox player) and their manager only used about 7-8 pitchers in the postseason, including his 3rd starter in a number of relief appearances between starts.  

The mediocre starters you guys want to sign would actually never see the light of day in the postseason because they aren't good enough. 

The starters are important because you need to fill starter's innings.  5 innings a start is about 800 innings coming from your rotation.  Push that to 6 and you need almost 1000 innings from your starters.  You need 50 to 60 innings from your closer.

Sure, but #1 the Sox already had a great bullpen, so no problem there.  The Nats comparison falls apart right there. The Sox also have a staff loaded with potential closer arms such as Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Codi Heuer, Tyler Johnson, Aaron Bummer and company.  I feel REALLY good about them being able to find a high level closer among that group if they needed to.  Sure Hendriks is a great add to this team, but his addition is a marginal improvement over what they had last year.  A higher level starter gives a LOT more chances for improvement, especially when compared to what there end rotation starters looked like last year.

The Sox could have flipped the signings upside down and signed a $13 million starter, another 3 million dollar arm in the pen, and then picked a closer from the winner of the spring competition for the closers role.

 

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I’d have to disagree. In today’s game, wins and losses come in the last three to four innings, generally speaking. With Hendriks, who can and has pitched up to three innings in an outing, Sox can have those other excellent relievers coming into the game in the fifth and sixth innings. I wouldn’t consider having Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon, Seiver and Lopez to cover the last two spots as major holes either. Pretty sure that is well above average talent to cover 4/5 spots of a rotation.

Not a guaranteed quality starter in the bunch there. Quite the risk in an “all in” season

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I’d have to disagree. In today’s game, wins and losses come in the last three to four innings, generally speaking. With Hendriks, who can and has pitched up to three innings in an outing, Sox can have those other excellent relievers coming into the game in the fifth and sixth innings. I wouldn’t consider having Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon, Seiver and Lopez to cover the last two spots as major holes either. Pretty sure that is well above average talent to cover 4/5 spots of a rotation.

If your guys suck in the first 5 innings, it doesn't matter what happens in the last 4.  We saw that a TON last year.

[GreenSox]

Given that they weren't going to spend a pile, I think they did pretty well.  The top 3 starters are really good, the bullpen is great and pretty deep- should se up well for post season (if they can get there).  Rodon signing surprised me; not that I'm against it, just surprised, as I had inferred from what I read and heard that they weren't 100% on his work ethic.

[fathom]

I don’t mind the offseason acquisitions considering the budget. I do wish they were more aggressive in trading prospects for quality players though with cheap contracts.

[Wisebri224]

9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Not a guaranteed quality starter in the bunch there. Quite the risk in an “all in” season

I agree with this.  There wasn't a Keuchel type they were going to get for $13 million or so that was better than getting the best closer in the game.  Paxton, Richards, Odorizzi?  The possible exception being Q, but there also is a difference between pitching the 8th and pitching the 9th.  Do we want that to be in test mode this year too?  I find it ridiculous they couldn't find $8 million for Q as well as Hendriks, but that's a different question

[Harold's Leg Lift]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

I don’t mind the offseason acquisitions considering the budget. I do wish they were more aggressive in trading prospects for quality players though with cheap contracts.

Absolutely this.  

[Saufley]

Just day dreaming here so go along with me. Wouldn't it be nice to see the RH convince JR that a World Series Championship is possible with a Bauer signing of even for two years with maybe an option for three? Yea, not reality, but a guy can dream!

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, VAfan said:

But if you can't close, it doesn't matter how good your starters are. Look at the Nationals. They had a terrible bullpen and it cost them a lot of games. They won the World Series because they got a closer (former White Sox player) and their manager only used about 7-8 pitchers in the postseason, including his 3rd starter in a number of relief appearances between starts.  

The mediocre starters you guys want to sign would actually never see the light of day in the postseason because they aren't good enough. 

You’re underestimating the damage that will be done to the pen if the last two starters struggle...and God forbid an injury to the top three starters.

Hendriks is fine as an over the top, finishing piece...for a World Series contender.

But we skipped over a few steps to get there, at least for this season.

The depth we had with two legit catchers is sorely going to be tested.

And having experienced Billy Koch, Linebrink, Dotel and David Robertson, I just have an aversion as a lifetime Sox fan about overspending on bullpen pieces when there are major holes remaining across the roster.  I’m not going to bother to list them all, but we’ve had roughly 8-10 underpaid guys capable of closing emerge from the most unexpected places since Howry/Foulke, and paying top of the market dollars just is scary. Maybe part of it was witnessing Craig Kimbrel go from the HoF to a complete enigma.

Now if we had normal attendance/incoming revenue and weren’t so artificially strapped with budget constraints, it wouldn’t be so bothersome.

Edited February 1, 2021 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The starters are important because you need to fill starter's innings.  5 innings a start is about 800 innings coming from your rotation.  Push that to 6 and you need almost 1000 innings from your starters.  You need 50 to 60 innings from your closer.

Sure, but #1 the Sox already had a great bullpen, so no problem there.  The Nats comparison falls apart right there. The Sox also have a staff loaded with potential closer arms such as Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Codi Heuer, Tyler Johnson, Aaron Bummer and company.  I feel REALLY good about them being able to find a high level closer among that group if they needed to.  Sure Hendriks is a great add to this team, but his addition is a marginal improvement over what they had last year.  A higher level starter gives a LOT more chances for improvement, especially when compared to what there end rotation starters looked like last year.

The Sox could have flipped the signings upside down and signed a $13 million starter, another 3 million dollar arm in the pen, and then picked a closer from the winner of the spring competition for the closers role.

 

Or just a solid veteran defensive catcher to pair with Giolito...we have so much depth in that pen...plus there invariably are the vets that become available as final roster cuts. 

[Rounding_Third]

55 minutes ago, VAfan said:

I'll give you a good grade for effort, but you violated the rules by spending $6.2M more.

You also got McCann to sign an extension for less than he's getting now when you really didn't know if McCann was going to turn into what he's become. His second half of 2019 dropped off and he didn't have enough ABs in 2020 to know if it might have happened again.  You also just assume Keuchel is signing here with a catcher not noted for framing at the time he was signed.  

Mike Minor (of the 5.56 ERA) also tends to block either Cease's or Kopech's development.  La Stella tends to block Vaughn.  Ramos blocks Collins.  All three of those moves may put worse players on the field.  And you want to take Luis Robert out of center field? 

I think you choices would have weakened the team and cost more money. That's just my opinion. 

Sorry about the rules.

Yes McCann would have signed a long term deal last winter for less than he did with the Mets.  His 2019 was very good.  Grandal had the same kind of slide in the 2nd half as McCann. And they both had very similar 2019's.  We didn't need to spend > $18m AAV on a catcher.  We already had a very good one, yes, in 2019 who earned a multi year contract.

Nice that you cherry picked Minor's 2020 and ignored his 2019 & 2018 and his other solid years.  He was the best FA SP under $10m on the market and KC got him. That said, there were a few other pretty good ones, too, that are now gone  Whether he (they) would have blocked Cease & Kopech is debatable.  More on that later.  La Stella would not have blocked Vaughn.  Besides, Vaughn should not be rushed up in 2021.  He needs to play every day at 1B in competitive games in MiLB, probably starting at A and working up like EVERY OTHER MLB PLAYER since the minor league system was created.  Then reassess him next fall.  Yes, Ramos or any vet BUC would block Collins.  He should be blocked, he sucks! O & D!  He needs to return to Charlotte so he can play every day and figure out his issues or they should trade him and give him a chance with a crappy team;  not try it in Chicago getting a game or two and a few bad AB's a week on a team vying for a championship.  

Robert is an outstanding CF!  And Bradley is better!  There was always some talk about Luis playing right some day, anyway.  I said it was controversial. I get it.  But an outfield of Engel, Bradley, & Robert when Eloy is DH/off would be sensational!  Hard to imagine a ball rolling to the wall.  

48 minutes ago, VAfan said:

I wanted Kluber. At least you have upside with him if he's healthy and back to form. 

Let me get this straight, Minor blocks Cease & Kopech but Kluber doesn't, got it!  Kopech gets shut down anyway, what do you then?

[VAfan]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The starters are important because you need to fill starter's innings.  5 innings a start is about 800 innings coming from your rotation.  Push that to 6 and you need almost 1000 innings from your starters.  You need 50 to 60 innings from your closer.

Sure, but #1 the Sox already had a great bullpen, so no problem there.  The Nats comparison falls apart right there. The Sox also have a staff loaded with potential closer arms such as Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Codi Heuer, Tyler Johnson, Aaron Bummer and company.  I feel REALLY good about them being able to find a high level closer among that group if they needed to.  Sure Hendriks is a great add to this team, but his addition is a marginal improvement over what they had last year.  A higher level starter gives a LOT more chances for improvement, especially when compared to what there end rotation starters looked like last year.

The Sox could have flipped the signings upside down and signed a $13 million starter, another 3 million dollar arm in the pen, and then picked a closer from the winner of the spring competition for the closers role.

 

Except that: 

$13M is not $11M. 

Who is the $13M starter you are specifically talking about? Are they on a one-year or multi-year deal?

Is that starter really better than Dylan Cease could be once Ethan Katz's program helps fix him the way it fixed Giolito? 

Is he better than Michael Kopech?

Why are you wasting Kopech and Crochet and Cease as bullpen aces, when you have devalued that position?  I would agree with you that top starters are worth more than top relievers, which is why top starters get paid 2-3x what top relievers get.  An $11M-$13M free agent starter is usually not a top starter, nor someone you would trust starting a playoff game. 

The bullpen arms available to the Sox without cannibalizing their starting depth would have been Aaron Bummer, who I already pointed out couldn't stay healthy last year.  And Garrett Crochet also couldn't stay healthy. Both also couldn't give us enough innings to win game 3 against Oakland last year.  Cody Heuer also appeared in that game, gave up a home run, and was pulled by Renteria (too early) for Rodon, who promptly loaded the bases and helped Oakland take the lead against us. 

If you try to put Bummer into the closer role, then who pitches the 8th? Moving guys up can be done, but it can have a ripple effect that weakens the whole bullpen. And games lost by the bullpen are devastating.

The Nationals, by the way, are still a very good example. The won the World Series by dramatically shortening their pitching staff and using starters in relief roles. But they also have lost prior playoff series due to bullpen problems, and been hurt in non-playoff seasons by bad bullpens. 

[VAfan]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

You’re underestimating the damage that will be done to the pen if the last two starters struggle...and God forbid an injury to the top three starters.

Hendriks is fine as an over the top, finishing piece...for a World Series contender.

But we skipped over a few steps to get there, at least for this season.

The depth we had with two legit catchers is sorely going to be tested.

And having experienced Billy Koch, Linebrink, Dotel and David Robertson, I just have an aversion as a lifetime Sox fan about overspending on bullpen pieces when there are major holes remaining across the roster.  I’m not going to bother to list them all, but we’ve had roughly 8-10 underpaid guys capable of closing emerge from the most unexpected places since Howry/Foulke, and paying top of the market dollars just is scary. Maybe part of it was witnessing Craig Kimbrel go from the HoF to a complete enigma.

Now if we had normal attendance/incoming revenue and weren’t so artificially strapped with budget constraints, it wouldn’t be so bothersome.

This somehow assumes that even playoff teams have solid and reliable 4th and 5th starters.  A look back to 2019 when we played a full season shows that isn't true. 

It also assumes that for $11M you can get a reliable starter. That's also a crapshoot. Many people wanted us to sign Quintana. He only made it through 4 games in 2020. Sure, he pitched 170 innings in 2019, and went 13-9. But his ERA was 4.68 and his ERA+ was 93.  Carlos Rodon did better than that the last 2 years he was healthy. Dylan Cease did as well, though he had a very bad FIP number. 

As I mentioned, I agree there is concern for the length of Hendriks deal. But for 2020, if the Sox want to win in the postseason, they need a strong bullpen, and that 4th or 5th starter could become irrelevant. 

 

[tray]

Fun thread about what ifs, so I'll bite.

If I was Hahn:

- Keep Renteria.

- Offer McCann 3/30 with an option for a 4th year (done last year before he hit FA). I think he would have bit.

-  sign Joc Pederson or maybe buy low on Benintendi for RF

- Keep Dane Dunning

- Sign Trevor Bauer

- Extend Giolito

- Pass on Liam and let Bummer Close.

Edited to add:

Wait until Jan 15, then split the international pool money between Cespy and Oscar Colas.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by tray

[VAfan]

1 hour ago, Rounding_Third said:

Let me get this straight, Minor blocks Cease & Kopech but Kluber doesn't, got it!  Kopech gets shut down anyway, what do you then?

Kluber is a multiple Cy Young award winner, who had 5 straight years -- 2014-18 -- that were better than any Sox pitcher we have. For that kind of upside I would be willing to make an adjustment.  For Mike Minor?? No way!! 

[VAfan]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Or just a solid veteran defensive catcher to pair with Giolito...we have so much depth in that pen...plus there invariably are the vets that become available as final roster cuts. 

If Collins ends up stinking it up, the Sox can easily add such a catcher during the season.  But it's past time to find out what they have in Collins. 

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Except that: 

$13M is not $11M. 

Who is the $13M starter you are specifically talking about? Are they on a one-year or multi-year deal?

Is that starter really better than Dylan Cease could be once Ethan Katz's program helps fix him the way it fixed Giolito? 

Is he better than Michael Kopech?

Why are you wasting Kopech and Crochet and Cease as bullpen aces, when you have devalued that position?  I would agree with you that top starters are worth more than top relievers, which is why top starters get paid 2-3x what top relievers get.  An $11M-$13M free agent starter is usually not a top starter, nor someone you would trust starting a playoff game. 

The bullpen arms available to the Sox without cannibalizing their starting depth would have been Aaron Bummer, who I already pointed out couldn't stay healthy last year.  And Garrett Crochet also couldn't stay healthy. Both also couldn't give us enough innings to win game 3 against Oakland last year.  Cody Heuer also appeared in that game, gave up a home run, and was pulled by Renteria (too early) for Rodon, who promptly loaded the bases and helped Oakland take the lead against us. 

If you try to put Bummer into the closer role, then who pitches the 8th? Moving guys up can be done, but it can have a ripple effect that weakens the whole bullpen. And games lost by the bullpen are devastating.

The Nationals, by the way, are still a very good example. The won the World Series by dramatically shortening their pitching staff and using starters in relief roles. But they also have lost prior playoff series due to bullpen problems, and been hurt in non-playoff seasons by bad bullpens. 

Going off of the Hendriks AAV there.  If you want to quibble he also got a million dollar signing bonus so the full 21 outlay is 12 million, not 11. Either way you get the idea.

Past that, all of those pitchers won't be relievers but out of them, you can find a closer. Not all of them will start either. But they give you options to find a closer.

The Sox had an awful rotation which forced them to overuse their bullpen, which is the quickest fail for a pen to fail. They tried to get 8 plus innings out of the pen if a starter gives them 5 or 6, they aren't shoving relievers into bad roles.

Again the Sox pen is really good. It wasn't their fault the starters failed.

[South Side Hit Men]

$ Saved / Not Signed (in 2020/21):

• LaRussa ($3M-$5M?) - WTF - Absolute Dumpster Fire on all levels. Ricky stays as was Hahn and Kenny's intention 60 games and best season in decades before Jerry fired him for his criminal BFF.
• Grandal ($18.3M) - Didn't like the signing at the time due to age/$s committed as a mid market payroll
• Keuchel ($18.0M) - Understood the signing at the time, don't have confidence it will work out, hope he doesn't vest the final season
• Eaton ($8.0M) - Child, please. Should have signed a higher cost quality player and clubhouse presence.

OK

• Hendricks and Lynn - OK with both, though don't want an extension for Lynn.
• Rodon - Whatever, cheap option with upside

Signing Alternatives

• Bradley $7M-$10M (perfect for defense, either start in CF or play on Robert off days / injuries.
• Pederson $7M-$10M (Would have signed him ultimately, could have if they didn't jump the gun on Eaton. Fine with a second year option / deal). Goes to LF, Jimenez to DH.
• McCann $8M-$10M 
• Flowers $3M
• Kluber $11M
• Quintana $8M

Lineup: SS Anderson 3B Moncada 1B Abreu DH Jimenez LF Pederson CF Robert RF Bradley Jr. C McCann 2B Madrigal

Rotation: 1 Giolito 2 Lynn 3 Kluber 4 Quintana 5 Kopech 6 Cease 7 Lopez 8 Rodon

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Ask me in 5 months. Honestly have zero clue.  

[iWiN4PreP]

So this is a tough one...

First, Offseason has been bad. Not horrible, but bad. My generous grade of C- might be too generous. Let's get a few things clear:

1) The White Sox should have been willing to spend much more money. This is always going to leave a sour taste for me. We can't get around it, so with the limited budget we were working with, there's really no way to have an A+ offseason. We're aiming for like a B or B- offseason at best I guess.

2) TLR is an abomination. We can't wish it a way, so that's going to weigh the offseason down and now our max grade is like a C+.

So, we can't change those two things. That sucks. 

Also, 3) we as fantasy GMs don't really get the whole free agency experience. Maybe Free Agent #1 just doesn't want to come to Chicago for whatever reason. We will never know. 

Anyway...

My issues with the offseason:

a) Eaton signing was stupid, shortsighted, too fast. We overpaid for an oft injured Eaton who is regressing and just had a terrible year. I'd take Eaton at like 3m as a prime Eaton is exactly what this team needs in RF, but we aren't getting that. We are getting a mediocre (at best) defender with little to no pop and little speed now. I'd look at any of the other options. 

b) Hendriks was an overpay. High chance that this contract bites us in the ass in 2 years or less. Closers just don't hold up extremely well. I think I would have rather signed like Archie Bradley + Brad Hand or something along those lines. Deepen the pen, lower the risk.

c) Lynn vs. Dunning is a tough one. Lynn is a great addition but at only one year it's tough to bite. I would have tried to get more creative with Darvish/Snell. Would love to get the longer years of control. 

d) I'd focus my attention on a sign+trade. Signing one of Cruz/Ozuna and trading Vaughn in a package for a top starter would be my goal. Tough to pull off and easy to sit here on the sidelines and suggest... but it makes too much sense to me.

e) Rodon is fine. Whatever, we need depth. Sign 1-3 more lottery ticket SPs.

So, to me: 

Hand+Bradley > Hendriks (I save money and lower risk)
Anything > Eaton (I probably save or equal money and have less risk of injury)
Lynn/Snell/Darvish (either I get Lynn, or I get a better top of the rotation controlled starter. Darvish would cost me more $$$, Snell cost me more prospects)
Sign+Trade (I'd increase budget getting Cruz or Ozuna and I'd lose Vaughn, but make the biggest increase possible without completely tearing the budget apart)
 

Edited February 2, 2021 by iWiN4PreP

[Vulture]

If Eaton fully regresses, that would be to a mean of .284/.362/.426. Sounds fine to me

[Lonchair]

8 hours ago, Vulture said:

That said I still would have preferred a Quintana signing in addition.

I would have getting Quintana for 8 mil. would have been a great investment.  It would have benefited the pitching depth but also the clubhouse & fanbase. 

[VAfan]

6 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

$ Saved / Not Signed (in 2020/21):

• LaRussa ($3M-$5M?) - WTF - Absolute Dumpster Fire on all levels. Ricky stays as was Hahn and Kenny's intention 60 games and best season in decades before Jerry fired him for his criminal BFF.
• Grandal ($18.3M) - Didn't like the signing at the time due to age/$s committed as a mid market payroll
• Keuchel ($18.0M) - Understood the signing at the time, don't have confidence it will work out, hope he doesn't vest the final season
• Eaton ($8.0M) - Child, please. Should have signed a higher cost quality player and clubhouse presence.

OK

• Hendricks and Lynn - OK with both, though don't want an extension for Lynn.
• Rodon - Whatever, cheap option with upside

Signing Alternatives

• Bradley $7M-$10M (perfect for defense, either start in CF or play on Robert off days / injuries.
• Pederson $7M-$10M (Would have signed him ultimately, could have if they didn't jump the gun on Eaton. Fine with a second year option / deal). Goes to LF, Jimenez to DH.
• McCann $8M-$10M 
• Flowers $3M
• Kluber $11M
• Quintana $8M

Lineup: SS Anderson 3B Moncada 1B Abreu DH Jimenez LF Pederson CF Robert RF Bradley Jr. C McCann 2B Madrigal

Rotation: 1 Giolito 2 Lynn 3 Kluber 4 Quintana 5 Kopech 6 Cease 7 Lopez 8 Rodon

 

Nice try, but you can't redo 2020. The question was what would you have done differently THIS year. 

Plus, keep Ricky?? You lost me there. Ricky obviously couldn't manage tight games. We were swept by a weaker Cleveland team, and lost the third game to Oakland because Ricky panicked and it panicked the team.