Did the Sox make the right moves this offseason given the money they have spent?

[VAfan]

5 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

So this is a tough one...

First, Offseason has been bad. Not horrible, but bad. My generous grade of C- might be too generous. Let's get a few things clear:

1) The White Sox should have been willing to spend much more money. This is always going to leave a sour taste for me. We can't get around it, so with the limited budget we were working with, there's really no way to have an A+ offseason. We're aiming for like a B or B- offseason at best I guess.

2) TLR is an abomination. We can't wish it a way, so that's going to weigh the offseason down and now our max grade is like a C+.

So, we can't change those two things. That sucks. 

Also, 3) we as fantasy GMs don't really get the whole free agency experience. Maybe Free Agent #1 just doesn't want to come to Chicago for whatever reason. We will never know. 

Anyway...

My issues with the offseason:

a) Eaton signing was stupid, shortsighted, too fast. We overpaid for an oft injured Eaton who is regressing and just had a terrible year. I'd take Eaton at like 3m as a prime Eaton is exactly what this team needs in RF, but we aren't getting that. We are getting a mediocre (at best) defender with little to no pop and little speed now. I'd look at any of the other options. 

b) Hendriks was an overpay. High chance that this contract bites us in the ass in 2 years or less. Closers just don't hold up extremely well. I think I would have rather signed like Archie Bradley + Brad Hand or something along those lines. Deepen the pen, lower the risk.

c) Lynn vs. Dunning is a tough one. Lynn is a great addition but at only one year it's tough to bite. I would have tried to get more creative with Darvish/Snell. Would love to get the longer years of control. 

d) I'd focus my attention on a sign+trade. Signing one of Cruz/Ozuna and trading Vaughn in a package for a top starter would be my goal. Tough to pull off and easy to sit here on the sidelines and suggest... but it makes too much sense to me.

e) Rodon is fine. Whatever, we need depth. Sign 1-3 more lottery ticket SPs.

So, to me: 

Hand+Bradley > Hendriks (I save money and lower risk)
Anything > Eaton (I probably save or equal money and have less risk of injury)
Lynn/Snell/Darvish (either I get Lynn, or I get a better top of the rotation controlled starter. Darvish would cost me more $$$, Snell cost me more prospects)
Sign+Trade (I'd increase budget getting Cruz or Ozuna and I'd lose Vaughn, but make the biggest increase possible without completely tearing the budget apart)
 

You aren't really fitting into what the Sox did. 

Hand + Bradley > Hendriks.  First off, you don't save any money. Brad Hand was $10.5M for one year. Hendriks, with a bonus, was $12M. Bradley hasn't signed so we don't know his cost, but it's going to be for a lot more than $1.5M.  We'll see if Bradley is a better hitter, He had a decent 2020, but was a sub hitter the 3 years before that. 

Anything > Eaton. You've chosen Bradley.  If you are saying Hand and Bradley could have been had for less than Hendriks and Eaton, I would agree. But I don't think you would have better players. Better defense with Bradley, but probably not better hitting.  Anyway, if that's your trade out, it's a reasonable difference of opinion.

Lynn v. Snell or Darvish.  The problem here is that Darvish himself breaks the bank. You can't add him without sucking up 2/3 of the $30M. That means you can have Darvish and a RF, but no closer. Or Darvish and a closer, but no RF and not even Rodon for pitching depth. (You would have had to trade Dunning to get Darvish). Snell would cost a lot more prospects than we can afford to give up. I think you need to concede that Lynn was the best move for the Sox. 

Sign and trade? You've already blown the budget, so there's no option of signing Cruz or Ozuna. And Cruz is a short term player at best. Vaughn gives you 6 years of control. Losing cheap controllable assets like that is the best way to ensure a short contention window. 

Lastly, Tony LaRussa is not an abomination. You may not like him as a person. But as a major league manager, he's done very well. 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, VAfan said:

Nice try, but you can't redo 2020. The question was what would you have done differently THIS year. 

Plus, keep Ricky?? You lost me there. Ricky obviously couldn't manage tight games. We were swept by a weaker Cleveland team, and lost the third game to Oakland because Ricky panicked and it panicked the team.  

First of all, the nature of this discussion is what we would do as GM. This is what I would have done. My lineup and rotation are better than the current one, with the same or less payroll.

Second, the Sox outperformed all expectations under Ricky Renteria. They lost at the end because they had one decent starting pitcher in the playoffs. Hahn assembled a team that did not have enough starting pitching depth to cover 63 games, let alone a real season against real teams outside of the pathetic Central Divisions which couldn't win a single series against legitimate teams.

Keuchel, Hahn's biggest signing, sucked ass when it mattered most. Grandal's fWAR was the equivalent (1.7 vs. 1.5) as McCann, and Grandal's enormous contract is a mistake which already cost the club in flexibility this off-season based on their cheap ass owner. Parrot and Mazara sucked ass, another waste of $17M. Despite all that money done the drain, when the games were on the line, Ricky Renteria lead the White Sox to their best record since the 00s. 

Hahn extended Rick Renteria 60 games prior to Jerry's firing. He would still be here if Jerry's BFF could avoid repeated trips to jail. Nobody in their right mind would hire someone gone from managing from over a decade.

Edited February 2, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[iWiN4PreP]

1 hour ago, VAfan said:

You aren't really fitting into what the Sox did. 

Hand + Bradley > Hendriks.  First off, you don't save any money. Brad Hand was $10.5M for one year. Hendriks, with a bonus, was $12M. Bradley hasn't signed so we don't know his cost, but it's going to be for a lot more than $1.5M.  We'll see if Bradley is a better hitter, He had a decent 2020, but was a sub hitter the 3 years before that. 

Anything > Eaton. You've chosen Bradley.  If you are saying Hand and Bradley could have been had for less than Hendriks and Eaton, I would agree. But I don't think you would have better players. Better defense with Bradley, but probably not better hitting.  Anyway, if that's your trade out, it's a reasonable difference of opinion.

Lynn v. Snell or Darvish.  The problem here is that Darvish himself breaks the bank. You can't add him without sucking up 2/3 of the $30M. That means you can have Darvish and a RF, but no closer. Or Darvish and a closer, but no RF and not even Rodon for pitching depth. (You would have had to trade Dunning to get Darvish). Snell would cost a lot more prospects than we can afford to give up. I think you need to concede that Lynn was the best move for the Sox. 

Sign and trade? You've already blown the budget, so there's no option of signing Cruz or Ozuna. And Cruz is a short term player at best. Vaughn gives you 6 years of control. Losing cheap controllable assets like that is the best way to ensure a short contention window. 

Lastly, Tony LaRussa is not an abomination. You may not like him as a person. But as a major league manager, he's done very well. 

One quick comment - there is no bradley the hitter... its archie bradley, a very good rp

[Rounding_Third]

14 hours ago, VAfan said:

Kluber is a multiple Cy Young award winner, who had 5 straight years -- 2014-18 -- that were better than any Sox pitcher we have. For that kind of upside I would be willing to make an adjustment.  For Mike Minor?? No way!! 

So silly that you use Kluber's career body of work and only Minor's 2020.  2020 is not a benchmark for any player!  Never mind that Kluber hasn't thrown substantial innings since breaking his friggin pitching arm where Minor (ex of many quality $8-10m pitchers) has recent proven quality innings.  Yeah, just throw more uncertainty into an already uncertain situation with BOR.  If Kluber gets to 100 innings without issues, it will be a major achievement; 180 innings (If full season)?  Reality check!  Sox need reliable innings not another dice roll.  C'mon 7...for $11m bet.

[VAfan]

7 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

One quick comment - there is no bradley the hitter... its archie bradley, a very good rp

Sorry, you did say Archie Bradley. I thought you meant Jackie Bradley Jr instead of Eaton in RF. 

[runtheballdown]

So they spent 29m? If you add up the money they got rid of it’s likely that the outgoing players costs were more than the new player signings.

so what they did is not big deal. Pretty much a wash. Big deal.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, runtheballdown said:

So they spent 29m? If you add up the money they got rid of it’s likely that the outgoing players costs were more than the new player signings.

so what they did is not big deal. Pretty much a wash. Big deal.

Not sure where the numbers actually fell, but the Sox also had about 20 million in internal raises happening up and down the roster from 20 to 21 based on full season numbers.

[Jose Abreu]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not sure where the numbers actually fell, but the Sox also had about 20 million in internal raises happening up and down the roster from 20 to 21 based on full season numbers.

Even when you factor all that in, they've still cut more payroll than they've added by about $3 million

[Y2Jimmy0]

On 2/1/2021 at 1:51 PM, SoCalChiSox said:

They still need a LH bat.

Im waiting patiently for Miller.

@Y2Jimmy when is that gonna happen?

Probably won't happen unless he's willing to take a minors deal 

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Probably won't happen unless he's willing to take a minors deal 

That's depressing. We are in dire need of a good LH bat. Wouldn't even cost much either. 

Damn cheap JR

[iWiN4PreP]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

Sorry, you did say Archie Bradley. I thought you meant Jackie Bradley Jr instead of Eaton in RF. 

No problem! Love your posts.  

[Y2Jimmy0]

On 2/1/2021 at 2:55 PM, fathom said:

I don’t mind the offseason acquisitions considering the budget. I do wish they were more aggressive in trading prospects for quality players though with cheap contracts.

Which prospects? They don't have any prospects to trade right now. NO minor league season killed their system and they didn't share data for whatever reason. I'm glad they kept mostly everyone. They'll have ammo for the deadline. 

[fathom]

26 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Which prospects? They don't have any prospects to trade right now. NO minor league season killed their system and they didn't share data for whatever reason. I'm glad they kept mostly everyone. They'll have ammo for the deadline. 

Kelley for sure and honestly I feel like they should cash out high on Crochet

[Rey21]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

Kelley for sure and honestly I feel like they should cash out high on Crochet

I agree, I hate to say it but feel like that forearm issue he had in that playoff game isn’t going away... 

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, fathom said:

Kelley for sure and honestly I feel like they should cash out high on Crochet

Even if he had a normal MiLB season, the Sox never utilize their drafted starting pitchers too much in the draft year.  Usually they pick up very few innings until their next year.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

I agree, I hate to say it but feel like that forearm issue he had in that playoff game isn’t going away... 

And that information/wariness is already priced into his market value.  Perhaps for a super team in need of this year’s version of Hader, you roll the dice knowing he might end up under the knife, but how many of those 98-103 MPH pitchers have gone injury-free for more than 3-5 years anyway?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

24 minutes ago, fathom said:

Kelley for sure and honestly I feel like they should cash out high on Crochet

I Know you'd trade Madrigal in a heartbeat but it isn't ridiculous to say if Madrigal and Crochet both stay with the Sox Madrigal likely means more to the Sox than Crochet in the next 2 years. If the Sox could have moved Crochet to help the team but insisted on Madrigal as a centerpiece instead I think they made a mistake.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, VAfan said:

Nice try, but you can't redo 2020. The question was what would you have done differently THIS year. 

Plus, keep Ricky?? You lost me there. Ricky obviously couldn't manage tight games. We were swept by a weaker Cleveland team, and lost the third game to Oakland because Ricky panicked and it panicked the team.  

The thread was a nice premise but getting anyone to try to stick to your rules was an exercise in futility. People have their own agendas and ideas on who they would have kept in the previous year because if you are the GM then they figure they were the GM in previous years with the benefit of hindsight and doing things like keeping McCann over Grandal when that is a silly idea.

Sox needed OBP and a strong LH bat and stability . It's why Grandal was signed. McCaan provided none of those things and certainly not stability unless your imagination magically makes him forego Free Agency when it will be the one time in his career to enter the market with good seasons behind him. They also got to see McCann have better results catching our ace and Giolito somehow becoming a worse pitcher without McCann is terrifying to them. All with Grandal on the roster to provide him rest and ideal situations to perform. The hindsight in that thinking is 20/20. No one knows how McCann would have played as the No.1 catcher without Grandal around.

I was McCanns biggest supporter on the board when they got him and when after his 1st year performance people still hated him citing his numbers dropping in the 2nd half even though he put up career numbers offensively . That hating was just more agendas of people who had said he sucked when we got him trying to justify continuing the he sucks message.

His hitting in 2020 solidified that the changes he made were real and now all of a sudden McCann was as good as if not better than Grandal to the people who were having problems with Grandal. Even the Sox, who started off with 3 catchers ,abandoned that idea which meant McCann would now get less AB's because of the full commitment to EE at DH.

Renteria had to go so I will agree with you on that but not for the reason you said. I had long arguments with lots of people saying the same thing you did. Renteria panicked and he panicked the team. I'm sorry but it's just not true. The Sox were just not as good as many thought they were. I assume that you mean by he panicked because he took out Dunning in the 1st inning. The Sox had a 3-0 lead after 3 innings with a pretty well rested BP. The Sox lost because they had no 3rd starter, the BP had to absorb the Crochet injury and then they sucked and the Sox hitters blew a lot scoring opportunities . That loss was squarely on the players and an unfortunate injury. I don't see how anyone can say they lost the game in the 1st inning unless they also make up an imagery scenario where these highly paid professionals panicked and mass hysteria ensued amongst the hitters and pitchers as if a gunman was spraying them all with bullets and they were frozen with fear.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[FriendlyNorthsider]

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

And that information/wariness is already priced into his market value.  Perhaps for a super team in need of this year’s version of Hader, you roll the dice knowing he might end up under the knife, but how many of those 98-103 MPH pitchers have gone injury-free for more than 3-5 years anyway?

Kevin Goldstein of Fangraphs (Formerly with the Astros FO) just said in a FG chat that his biggest regret was pushing to trade Hader for Carlos Gomez and Fiers because he thought Hader was destined for the bullpen. 

[ShoeLessRob]

As a fan with no front office experience and the idea that it’s not my money, spend it. No they did not spend it correctly.

[Y2Jimmy0]

15 hours ago, fathom said:

Kelley for sure and honestly I feel like they should cash out high on Crochet

I just don’t think you can trade guys like that when the owner refuses to spend $$. I think Kelley will have more value a year from now and he has a lot right now. They aren’t trading Crochet, Kopech or Vaughn. I’ve said that every week it seems 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

18 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just don’t think you can trade guys like that when the owner refuses to spend $$. I think Kelley will have more value a year from now and he has a lot right now. They aren’t trading Crochet, Kopech or Vaughn. I’ve said that every week it seems 

I think Kelley is going to be a "White Sox Form" untouchable in about 6 months.

[QBBrian13]

In these "dog days" of winter, I'm playing devils advocate with myself in regards to this team as currently constructed compared to last season. On one hand, we know we have core building blocks already in place that we think will continue to get better. On the other, there are some real question marks moving forward, especially when it comes to the money that was spent, or lack thereof, to "improve" (key word) the team.

An argument could be made that Liam Hendriks is an upgrade, and I do like his personality and passion, but he's not an overwhelming improvement. People might not have liked the analytics of Colome, but he got the job done at a very high rate. So, quite frankly, if Hendriks makes us better in 2021 compared to 2020, it is minimal at best.

Obviously losing James McCann and replacing him with Zack Collins/??? is a major downgrade.

Adam Eaton has been discussed at length. Again, he provides some fire, but I don't see how he "improves" the team from Mazara's production in 2020. Sure, he could bounce back to the 2019 version, and be a steal. But that is a big question mark that I alluded to earlier and will circle back to later.

The Lance Lynn trade, to me, when considering who we sent away, was very short-sided. The move just screamed "panic, we don't want to get to the playoffs again with only 2 proven starters". I will be clear, Lance Lynn improves the #3 spot in the starting rotation in 2021. However, the side to it that bugs me is trading Dane Dunning. At the very least, his debut season, his ability to locate most pitches consistently made him the on-paper 4th starter going into the off-season. Now with trading him, we are all but ensuring that two of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon or Jonathan Steiver are making 60+ starts in a full 162 game season. So while the top of our rotation improved, the bottom two spots got weaker.

Then we start to sprinkle in the question marks ... Was Moncada affected by Covid, or was the 2019 season the outlier? Will another year older affect Abreu? Does Luis Robert adjust and get back to July/August production? Can Andrew Vaughn produce at a MLB level despite not seeing anything higher than A+ pitching?

I hope all these questions are moot points, and they all perform obviously. However, when looking at the big picture now, knowing we don't have expanded playoffs, the improvement of teams like the Blue Jays to go along with the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros, Angels, etc. I have a little more pause than I did maybe 3 weeks ago, as the margin for error is significantly more narrow.

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 hours ago, raBBit said:

Charlie Morton ($15m)

Joc Pederson ($7m)

Kirby Yates ($5.5m)

Wilson Ramos ($2m)

 

And we do, or don't make the Lynn trade?

[VAfan]

20 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Renteria had to go so I will agree with you on that but not for the reason you said. I had long arguments with lots of people saying the same thing you did. Renteria panicked and he panicked the team. I'm sorry but it's just not true. The Sox were just not as good as many thought they were. I assume that you mean by he panicked because he took out Dunning in the 1st inning. The Sox had a 3-0 lead after 3 innings with a pretty well rested BP. The Sox lost because they had no 3rd starter, the BP had to absorb the Crochet injury and then they sucked and the Sox hitters blew a lot scoring opportunities . That loss was squarely on the players and an unfortunate injury. I don't see how anyone can say they lost the game in the 1st inning unless they also make up an imagery scenario where these highly paid professionals panicked and mass hysteria ensued amongst the hitters and pitchers as if a gunman was spraying them all with bullets and they were frozen with fear.

 

If it had only been the Oakland game, it wouldn't have been as clear about Renteria. But it was also the 4 game series with Cleveland, when we lost all 4 games.  One game we had a 2 run 10th inning lead and gave up 4 to lose, capped off by a 3-run HR off Jose Ruiz!! WTF was Jose Ruiz doing pitching to Ramirez?  Another game we lost in the bottom of the 9th with Gio Gonzalez in relief. A 3rd game we gave up a 3 run late inning lead because he used Carlos Rodon. With that Rodon meltdown, why he put him in for Cody Heuer against Oakland only to see him largely blow that game is beyond me. But those were fireable offenses.