bmags Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 PECOTA also thought those mets teams would be much better than they were as they doubled up so many major leaguers across their positions. The problem? Many weren't good and they still had injuries. The real takeaway has been the one many have expressed: the starters on this team are excellent. But this team will really struggle with starting pitching injuries, as well as an injury to TA. If we can avoid situations like august where we cannot find backhalf starters that can get through 4-5 innings consistently, it eats away at our bullpen advantage over the course of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said: Didn't PECOTA project the Sox to win something like 75 games in 2005? No, that projection was 80-82. My personal favorite was when I spent days arguing why their 78-84 projection for the 2015 White Sox had to be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREEDY Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Incoming TA tweet re: "Doubters & Haters" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: But the White Sox are a big time world series contender and they have the best team in the AL and all the fans upset about not signing FA's are just negative. What a disappointing off season this was. Not even above Cleveland. Smh. It's over then. Make sure you don't follow until 2022. Go enjoy golf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Projection systems that have the White Sox as the 8th best team in the AL can be disregarded. What a bunch of nonsense. The White Sox are likely better than an 83 win team, but depth matters. To say they're much better than an 85-86 win team is projecting a bunch of growth with very little regression. I think the Vaughn projection is low because of a lack of information, and Anderson will never be a guy who fits projection models due to his unorthodox way of succeeding so I like his over, but discrediting something merely because it doesn't buy your perceived narrative without substantiating the disproval statistically isn't all that compelling. The fact is, the White Sox back of the rotation is bad, Keuchel was solid last year but expecting major regression isn't absurd by any means; especially with him pitching against more viable offenses. The rotation is relying on two of the worst pitchers in baseball from the past two years and one guy who hasn't pitched in two years. Could Cease take a huge step forward; sure, of course, anything could happen. Is it more likely than not? Absolutely not. Could Kopech come back and shake off rust and dominate the league? Sure - I'm probably more confident in this than I am in Cease. Are Rodon and Lopez suddenly going to be good viable starting options? I would say absolutely not. The baseline here puts the Sox between 83-85 wins. Besides the Indians, which team ahead of them is clearly not better? I would say that all 6 have a very good case for being better than the White Sox. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: It's over then. Make sure you don't follow until 2022. Go enjoy golf. Why wouldn't I follow? Are you only allowed to watch a team if you pretend that they're some world beater when they're not? They could see a lot of progression from young players; maybe Moncada bounces back; maybe Robert takes a step forward; maybe Vaughn dominates; maybe Kopech and Cease shock the world. The point of the rebuild was to not have a ton of "maybe's." The point was to supplement the young talent with some guarantees. That's why they tanked for years. The White Sox failed to do that, and now they're in a position where they aren't jockeying for World Series placement; instead they're jockeying for just a spot in the post season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: No, that projection was 80-82. My personal favorite was when I spent days arguing why their 78-84 projection for the 2015 White Sox had to be wrong. The White Sox beat Pecota projections by the most in baseball between 2005-2012 I believe; it wasn't close. It had nothing to do with PECOTA hating the White Sox. They beat projections solely because their pitching stayed healthier than everyone else's in baseball (the Hermie effect). Here's an article that was written about it in 2013. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-white-sox-and-beating-projections/ We miss Hermie. Edited February 9, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ah, more fuel for the people who have convinced themselves that this team sucks. Fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrankinSox Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Kyyle23 said: Ah, more fuel for the people who have convinced themselves that this team sucks. Fun. Hilarious how they treat it as affirmation of their negative outlook. "Yep, see, projections say we stink so we obviously didn't do enough. If we happen to be good because the young players progress, then that's lucky, but it has nothing to do with the way our front office assembled the team." 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: Ah, more fuel for the people who have convinced themselves that this team sucks. Fun. Who has said the team sucks? I'm pretty sure people are merely disappointed that after a 4 year rebuild in which the Sox promised to get rid of all the maybe's and help the young stars grow as a winning roster, we're back to being the same team that needs a lot to go right - better than expected - to be a top tier team in the AL. The Sox can be fun to watch, and exciting, and fans can still be disappointed in how this is all shaking out. I'm, for one, excited for the season but I also don't think the Sox are a shoe in for the playoffs and they had a chance of being just that but decided to not invest in that opportunity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Who has said the team sucks? I'm pretty sure people are merely disappointed that after a 4 year rebuild in which the Sox promised to get rid of all the maybe's and help the young stars grow as a winning roster, we're back to being the same team that needs a lot to go right - better than expected - to be a top tier team in the AL. The Sox can be fun to watch, and exciting, and fans can still be disappointed in how this is all shaking out. I'm, for one, excited for the season but I also don't think the Sox are a shoe in for the playoffs and they had a chance of being just that but decided to not invest in that opportunity. Do you feel like that was aimed at you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Kyyle23 said: Do you feel like that was aimed at you? No, which is why I asked who said the team sucks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) 23 minutes ago, KrankinSox said: Hilarious how they treat it as affirmation of their negative outlook. "Yep, see, projections say we stink so we obviously didn't do enough. If we happen to be good because the young players progress, then that's lucky, but it has nothing to do with the way our front office assembled the team." This is wrong, how? I think they're better than an 83 win team but thinking it's not a 90 win team is entirely reasonable. This is an 85-89 win team as currently constructed imo. If a few things go wrong 82-83 wins is entirely possible. If a few things go right, 95+ is possible. Edited February 9, 2021 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: No, which is why I asked who said the team sucks? *Points up* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: *Points up* God thinks this team sucks? uh-oh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'd say if we lose Gio, Keuchel or Lynn for part of the season to injury, or one of them completely shits the bed then 83 might be on the table. Or if NONE of Rodon, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, Stiever step up and pitch even remotely league average then maybe ... but 83 would be doomsday/floor. Things to consider is Detroit is a lot better this year. Same with KC. Obviously Cleveland offsets that a bit. Minnesota probably the same. Kansas City actually has a path to .500 if all goes right -- Singer, Bubic, Minor, Duffy, Keller ... that's not an awful rotation. They have some pop in Soler, a healthy Perez, etc. If you get good years out of Mondesi and Santana that team is much better this year. Side note: I think this is probably the last cake walk year out of the Tigers before they make their splash again. I can definitely see them nabbing a Trevor Story or the likes as their franchise guy. Tork comes up. Riley Greene comes up. Skubal, Mize, Mannning all take their licks this year & are better next year. etc. Here and there they'll be able to add vets + a few more draft picks ... they'll be back at 81 wins sooner rather than later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: Ah, more fuel for the people who have convinced themselves that this team sucks. Fun. My god. This whole narrative is so false it feels willfully ignorant at this point. If you criticize the team, it does NOT have to mean you think they suck. It does NOT have to mean you hate them. It does NOT have to mean you want them to fail to validate your criticisms. But hey, nuances can be complicated. It’s much easier to have the blanket statement that those critical are complainers, whiners and pessimists that will never be happy. You do you. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said: I'd say if we lose Gio, Keuchel or Lynn for part of the season to injury, or one of them completely shits the bed then 83 might be on the table. Or if NONE of Rodon, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, Stiever step up and pitch even remotely league average then maybe ... but 83 would be doomsday/floor. Things to consider is Detroit is a lot better this year. Same with KC. Obviously Cleveland offsets that a bit. Minnesota probably the same. Kansas City actually has a path to .500 if all goes right -- Singer, Bubic, Minor, Duffy, Keller ... that's not an awful rotation. They have some pop in Soler, a healthy Perez, etc. If you get good years out of Mondesi and Santana that team is much better this year. Side note: I think this is probably the last cake walk year out of the Tigers before they make their splash again. I can definitely see them nabbing a Trevor Story or the likes as their franchise guy. Tork comes up. Riley Greene comes up. Skubal, Mize, Mannning all take their licks this year & are better next year. etc. Here and there they'll be able to add vets + a few more draft picks ... they'll be back at 81 wins sooner rather than later. If there's one thing I might consider taking from this PECOTA that is really important, it is to not underestimate the Twins and the Cleveland Baseball Club. The White Sox certainly have some potential for error in their projection, every team does, and you can justify why you think that at the end of the season. But it's interesting that Cleveland sold off Lindor and they have basically the same 2021 projection without him that they had in 2020 with him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snopek said: My god. This whole narrative is so false it feels willfully ignorant at this point. If you criticize the team, it does NOT have to mean you think they suck. It does NOT have to mean you hate them. It does NOT have to mean you want them to fail to validate your criticisms. But hey, nuances can be complicated. It’s much easier to have the blanket statement that those critical are complainers, whiners and pessimists that will never be happy. You do you. We have had an entire month of pessimists blasting this team for not doing enough, I have watched many of those same people practically root for failure from players like Madrigal, Cease, Eaton etc to prove they were correct. My post was part hyperbole but there is truth in it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: The White Sox are likely better than an 83 win team, but depth matters. To say they're much better than an 85-86 win team is projecting a bunch of growth with very little regression. I think the Vaughn projection is low because of a lack of information, and Anderson will never be a guy who fits projection models due to his unorthodox way of succeeding so I like his over, but discrediting something merely because it doesn't buy your perceived narrative without substantiating the disproval statistically isn't all that compelling. The fact is, the White Sox back of the rotation is bad, Keuchel was solid last year but expecting major regression isn't absurd by any means; especially with him pitching against more viable offenses. The rotation is relying on two of the worst pitchers in baseball from the past two years and one guy who hasn't pitched in two years. Could Cease take a huge step forward; sure, of course, anything could happen. Is it more likely than not? Absolutely not. Could Kopech come back and shake off rust and dominate the league? Sure - I'm probably more confident in this than I am in Cease. Are Rodon and Lopez suddenly going to be good viable starting options? I would say absolutely not. The baseline here puts the Sox between 83-85 wins. Besides the Indians, which team ahead of them is clearly not better? I would say that all 6 have a very good case for being better than the White Sox. Project whatever win/loss record you'd like. There shouldn't be 7 AL clubs projected to have a better median record. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Kyyle23 said: We have had an entire month of pessimists blasting this team for not doing enough, I have watched many of those same people practically root for failure from players like Madrigal, Cease, Eaton etc to prove they were correct. My post was part hyperbole but there is truth in it Nobody wants to be right about that stuff. I've been a big Cease detractor but I'm actually excited to see him pitch this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Nobody wants to be right about that stuff. I've been a big Cease detractor but I'm actually excited to see him pitch this year. You have been around here long enough to know this is not true. Many people put their flag in the ground about a player and refuse to change their minds and Madrigal is a prime example of that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Project whatever win/loss record you'd like. There shouldn't be 7 AL clubs projected to have a better median record. Based on what? What are you using to evaluate the teams and their standings? Besides the Indians, which team ahead of the Sox is clearly worse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Has anyone ever seen Ray Ray and RagahRagah in the same room together? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Based on what? What are you using to evaluate the teams and their standings? Besides the Indians, which team ahead of the Sox is clearly worse? PECOTA has repeatedly overrated the Angels now, for one. They have the Angels ahead of us, and did so last year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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