Happy PECOTA Day!

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

You have been around here long enough to know this is not true.  Many people put their flag in the ground about a player and refuse to change their minds and Madrigal is a prime example of that

I don't like Madrigal all that much either but I'd be glad if he proves me wrong.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

24 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

We have had an entire month of pessimists blasting this team for not doing enough, I have watched many of those same people practically root for failure from players like Madrigal, Cease, Eaton etc to prove they were correct.

My post was part hyperbole but there is truth in it

I hope Madrigal and Cease are amazing; Cease is an easy guy to root for and I like Madrigal but was absolutely disappointed in his mental mistakes last year. He really can't afford many of those. I don't think anyone needs to root for Eaton to fail to prove that was a crappy signing. The team shouldn't be signing "hopes" and "maybes" to fill giant lineup holes when they're trying to win a championship. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

PECOTA has repeatedly overrated the Angels now, for one. They have the Angels ahead of us, and did so last year too. 

The Angels are another high variance boom or bust team because their value is tied so heavily to a few players; similar to the White Sox of the past. They lack depth similarly to the White Sox. I think the Angels and White Sox are pretty similar; health to their pitching staff is essential for their success because they have no depth there. If one of their stars is bad or gets hurt they are in big trouble offensively too. 

[vilehoopster]

Is the Percota total of season wins usually the same as the Vegas lines or the online betting places lines?? 

Because if it is, I'm gonna break my rule and do some betting that the Sox win over 83 games and the Cardinals win over 80. 

[Kyyle23]

7 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Has anyone ever seen Ray Ray and RagahRagah in the same room together?

I believe there is a no explicit imagery rule on the site somewhere ok

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Is the Percota total of season wins usually the same as the Vegas lines or the online betting places lines?? 

Because if it is, I'm gonna break my rule and do some betting that the Sox win over 83 games and the Cardinals win over 80. 

Vegas will take these projections into account when setting lines but they don't translate directly. Right now, Vegas betting lines have the White Sox as a narrow favorite over the Twins to win the AL Central.

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/odds/futures

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Is the Percota total of season wins usually the same as the Vegas lines or the online betting places lines?? 

Because if it is, I'm gonna break my rule and do some betting that the Sox win over 83 games and the Cardinals win over 80. 

This won't be the line. Pecota also has not been profitable vs the off-shore W/L totals the past 10 years, so they are not more predictive than the W/L totals. 

The futures market isn't predictive at all as it moves based on how leveraged the book is; the win/loss market doesn't move on air quite as often, and the closing numbers there are much more predicative of a teams W/L's than PECOTA. I would guess the Sox Win total will be 85.5-86.5, the Twins 88.5-89.5, the Indians 82.5-83.5. We'll see when they're posted and how they move. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ron883]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The Angels are another high variance boom or bust team because their value is tied so heavily to a few players; similar to the White Sox of the past. They lack depth similarly to the White Sox. I think the Angels and White Sox are pretty similar; health to their pitching staff is essential for their success because they have no depth there. If one of their stars is bad or gets hurt they are in big trouble offensively too. 

The White Sox offense posted the highest fWAR in the entire mlb last year. This was with our 3B ravaged by covid and a blackhole at DH. Both these things should get fixed this year. I'm pretty sure most offenses would be in big trouble if their stars are bad or got hurt. 

The offense will be fine. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by ron883

[southsider2k5]

Fan Duel doesn't have win totals up as of yet, but they have the Sox at -150, Twins at +165, and Indians at +750 for the AL Central.  Sox are 2nd best odds in AL at +380 to Yankees +210. Sox World Series odds are 4th best at +850.

So while that isn't a true projection, it does tell you where people are putting their money.  The betters have the Sox as a clear AL Central favorite, and secondary favorite in the AL.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Fan Duel doesn't have win totals up as of yet, but they have the Sox at -150, Twins at +165, and Indians at +750 for the AL Central.  Sox are 2nd best odds in AL at +380 to Yankees +210. Sox World Series odds are 4th best at +850.

So while that isn't a true projection, it does tell you where people are putting their money.  The betters have the Sox as a clear AL Central favorite, and secondary favorite in the AL.

Because of the hold on futures markets, and the fact that they move on air (meaning without wagers placed at their book in particular), they just aren't an efficient measure of expected outcomes. The sharp money that sets markets and moves lines aren't heavily invested in markets that keep their money locked up for 6 months and have a 20-40% vig attached to them. A great example of this is the movement within futures markets from night to night based on individual results. It's a reactionary market more than a predicative market.

The win totals from bookmaker, pinnacle and the likes will be the best barometer we'll get regarding expected outcomes. I would trust those over any PECOTA projections or the likes. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what? What are you using to evaluate the teams and their standings?

Besides the Indians, which team ahead of the Sox is clearly worse?

Angels, Indians and Astros for sure. 

[ron883]

Look, nobody believed me when I said Colin Sexton would be a stud and better than Wendell Carter Jr. Trust me when I say that the Sox will be better than the Twins and Indians. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Angels, Indians and Astros for sure. 

Fair enough; you're certainly entitled to your opinion. Saying the Astros are for sure worse than the White Sox doesn't jive with almost any projection system. Whether PECOTA, FG's, or the countless others. It's actually not even all that close. When the W/L totals release the Astros will also be ahead of the White Sox there as well. I can definitely buy the Indians - the offense is just so rough - and the Angels are boom or bust so a lot of risk and variance there. But the Astros, as of today, are a better baseball team than the White Sox IMO.

[southsider2k5]

46 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Because of the hold on futures markets, and the fact that they move on air (meaning without wagers placed at their book in particular), they just aren't an efficient measure of expected outcomes. The sharp money that sets markets and moves lines aren't heavily invested in markets that keep their money locked up for 6 months and have a 20-40% vig attached to them. A great example of this is the movement within futures markets from night to night based on individual results. It's a reactionary market more than a predicative market.

The win totals from bookmaker, pinnacle and the likes will be the best barometer we'll get regarding expected outcomes. I would trust those over any PECOTA projections or the likes. 

PECOTA doesn't have enough complexities to really understand what happened last year, while the human mind has a much better ability to understand one offs.  PECOTA has no idea about mental illness, COVID, depressions, or how one little change can unlock or lock up a pitcher or hitter.  I can speak for a lot of teams, but the Sox are loaded with a ton of weird one offs.

[mqr]

From a pure math standpoint, putting the Sox in the mid 80s makes sense to me. 

The Indians though.....

[SoxSteve]

2 hours ago, ron883 said:

The White Sox offense posted the highest fWAR in the entire mlb last year. This was with our 3B ravaged by covid and a blackhole at DH. Both these things should get fixed this year. I'm pretty sure most offenses would be in big trouble if their stars are bad or got hurt. 

The offense will be fine. 

don't forget about the Blackhole in right field.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Fair enough; you're certainly entitled to your opinion. Saying the Astros are for sure worse than the White Sox doesn't jive with almost any projection system. Whether PECOTA, FG's, or the countless others. It's actually not even all that close. When the W/L totals release the Astros will also be ahead of the White Sox there as well. I can definitely buy the Indians - the offense is just so rough - and the Angels are boom or bust so a lot of risk and variance there. But the Astros, as of today, are a better baseball team than the White Sox IMO.

On what planet are the Astros better in 2021?

Rotation = White Sox > Astros

Bullpen = White Sox > Astros

Lineup = White Sox > Astros

Top 100 Prospects = White Sox 4, Astros 1.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[35thstreetswarm]

I'd be terrified if PECOTA liked us.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

duplicate

Edited February 9, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

don't forget about the Blackhole in right field.

[iWiN4PreP]

kyyle23 is one of the worst posters on this site with his constant attacks on anyone who is pessimistic about the CWS, so we can disregard his content. 

Honestly, the projections are about right. Sox have built no depth. The season is going to feel extremely long compared to 2020. Injuries are guranteed to occur and it will be a dogfight. A lot of people are projecting Kopech and Cease (and even Lopez) to be big parts of this rotation, and that is a huge error. Kopech, for all intents and purposes, should be counted as a 0 for the year. Cease was awful in 2020 and should be treated as a low level unknown for 2021. Lopez is 0. Keuchel won a lot of supporters in 2020, but i'm not fooled. Regression will hit him hard and I'm not saying that because I'm pessimisstic. 

I have a lot of faith in the hitting, even with the lackluster additions, but depth there also hurts. 

Twins aren't going anywhere, I like a lot of the moves the Indians made after the Lindor trade, and while the AL isn't as strong as the NL, there's some strengths.

 

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

kyyle23 is one of the worst posters on this site with his constant attacks on anyone who is pessimistic about the CWS, so we can disregard his content. 

Honestly, the projections are about right. Sox have built no depth. The season is going to feel extremely long compared to 2020. Injuries are guranteed to occur and it will be a dogfight. A lot of people are projecting Kopech and Cease (and even Lopez) to be big parts of this rotation, and that is a huge error. Kopech, for all intents and purposes, should be counted as a 0 for the year. Cease was awful in 2020 and should be treated as a low level unknown for 2021. Lopez is 0. Keuchel won a lot of supporters in 2020, but i'm not fooled. Regression will hit him hard and I'm not saying that because I'm pessimisstic. 

I have a lot of faith in the hitting, even with the lackluster additions, but depth there also hurts. 

Twins aren't going anywhere, I like a lot of the moves the Indians made after the Lindor trade, and while the AL isn't as strong as the NL, there's some strengths.

 

To be fair, Kyle never threatened to become a fan of another team because the White Sox didn't sign a free agent.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

27 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

kyyle23 is one of the worst posters on this site with his constant attacks on anyone who is pessimistic about the CWS, so we can disregard his content. 

Honestly, the projections are about right. Sox have built no depth. The season is going to feel extremely long compared to 2020. Injuries are guranteed to occur and it will be a dogfight. A lot of people are projecting Kopech and Cease (and even Lopez) to be big parts of this rotation, and that is a huge error. Kopech, for all intents and purposes, should be counted as a 0 for the year. Cease was awful in 2020 and should be treated as a low level unknown for 2021. Lopez is 0. Keuchel won a lot of supporters in 2020, but i'm not fooled. Regression will hit him hard and I'm not saying that because I'm pessimisstic. 

I have a lot of faith in the hitting, even with the lackluster additions, but depth there also hurts. 

Twins aren't going anywhere, I like a lot of the moves the Indians made after the Lindor trade, and while the AL isn't as strong as the NL, there's some strengths.

 

I agree Sox have no depth at Catcher and SP.. I however, do like the depth pretty much everywhere else..

[Tony]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

To be fair, Kyle never threatened to become a fan of another team because the White Sox didn't sign a free agent.

[OmarComing25]

They have the Sox only scoring 11 runs more than the Indians. Also how are the median projected wins at 83 if the run differential is projected to be -10?