VAfan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) If you look at Spotrac, you can see who the Sox have under contractual control over the next several years. Starting Lineup - SS Tim Anderson - 2021, 22, 23, 24 - 3B Yoan Moncada - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - 1B Jose Abreu - 21, 22 - LF Eloy Jimenez - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - C Yasmani Grandal - 21, 22, 23 - DH/1B - Andrew Vaughn - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - CF Luis Robert - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 - RF Adam Eaton - 21, 22 - 2B Nick Madrigal - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Bench - Utility Leury Garcia - 21 - C Zack Collins - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - OF Adam Engel - 21, 22, 23 - Extra bench player??? There could be room for another player here. Starting pitchers - Lucas Giolito - 21, 22, 23 - Dallas Keuchel - 21, 22, 23 - Lance Lynn - 21 - Dylan Cease - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Carlos Rodon - 21 - Reynaldo Lopez - 21, 22, 23 Bullpen - Liam Hendriks - 21, 22, 23, 24 - Aaron Bummer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Evan Marshall - 21, 22 - Matt Foster - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Cody Heuer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Jace Fry - 21, 22, 23 - Jimmy Cordero - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Zack Burdi -, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Transition Pitcher - Garrett Crochet - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Michael Kopech - 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 26 2021 Payroll allocation - $123M 2022 Payroll - $116M - no arb 2023 Payroll - $86M - 10 arb 2024 Payroll - $85M - 7 arb ************ Assuming they exercise options: In 2022, they could lose: Garcia, Lynn, Rodon In 2023, they could lose: Abreu, Eaton, Marshall In 2024, they could lose: Grandal, Engel, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry I did this little exercise to see graphically where the Sox stand over the next few years. In 2022, the Sox will probably look to extend Lance Lynn. He will get a lot more than the $8M he's getting this year. Leury Garcia can likely be brought back if they like him for a similar number. Whether Rodon returns is a wild card. In 2023, will the Sox let Jose Abreu walk? Not likely. But Eaton and Marshall will likely be replaced. But this is the year when 10 players could hit arbitration, when salaries will rise quite a bit. In 2024, Grandal and Giolito will be up. Giolito has to be the priority. Grandal will likely need to be replaced. Engel, Keuchel, Lopez (if he's still around) and Fry can be replaced. Overall, the Sox appear to be in tremendous shape through the next 4 years with the core of their young players growing together. If the Sox stay on this plan, their payroll commitment will naturally increase over those 4 years as young players get into arbitration years and the Sox need to extend their best players, like Lucas Giolito. If pitchers Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech turn into TOR starters, the Sox will be able to move on from Keuchel and Lynn, but that's not likely before 2024. From this, I think you can argue that the Sox should spend more money and raise their payroll commitments from the $120M range to a higher platform. But you can also argue that the Sox have done a great job with the money they have spent. They don't really have any bad contracts, and they have a lot of really good ones. I'm just excited that the core of this team is locked up for at least the next 4 years! GO SOX!!! Edited February 2, 2021 by VAfan 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Vaughn would actually have an additional year since they will wait to get the extra year of control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Nice job on this post. Very detailed and allows reader to visualize it well. As a Packers fan I hope they follow the mold of teams like the Packers (for football) or Cardinals/Rays for baseball. Which is to say I hope we balance this run against the future flexibility. For the Packers it was walking away from guys like TJ Lang and Bryan Bulaga during some of their best years. It's been incredibly frustrating at times when they don't go out and get that extra piece that puts them over the top, but having decades of success is very fun. Same with Cardinals - I'd love to be them - they do the Rays model but with the ability to be more aggressive. They made that run at Stanton, brought in contracts like Goldy and Arenado, but balance that by walking away from guys like Wong this year. Rays obviously do it to a fault - letting Snell and his affordable contract go, Pham, etc. And i know all the people will say it's worth it to have one championship like the cubs and most of the fans are content with that. I'd like to raise the bar - I want a decade plus of constant success to raise our stature to being on par with the Cubs on a national basis. I want 30,000 fans each game for a decade -- not just for a few years. So what does that mean? To me it might mean trading away someone like a Cease in a year or two if he turns out well and parlaying that into additional players. Same with a Moncada. letting Abreu walk instead of trying to get an extra year out of him. Trading some of your bullpen pieces at a premium even during a World Series run. I think it means keeping and paying your "core" and then trading some of your nice pieces for volume trades to fill in besides them. My core would be: Robert, Eloy, Madrigal, Giolito, Vaughn, Kopech I'd be open to trading: Moncada, Anderson (on fence here - as he gets older his speed will diminish, that said SS is super stacked and so his price tag might not be terrible), Cease, Abreu, Keuchel A little controversial for sure, but there are three options for running a team like the sox heading towards a nice run: Cubs/Padres/etc. -- you go out and just spend and put really nice pieces next to your younger stars. you have a 3-4 year run of being a top, top team. You ride with them until you can't and then it all gets broken up and return to nothing for 3-4 years while reloading again. Cardinals/Rays/A's -- you do what is noted above - you balance going for it while trading guys at their top value and filling in with additional volume. There's levels to this - the Cardinals to me are the team to emulate - they spend some too, but remain on task Rockies - just sit on your guys, trade them for absolutely nothing like Arenado - Trevor Story, etc. Add in bad free agent pieces at high prices to supplement and miss -- wade davis, ian desmond, murphy, etc. etc. squander everything and all your talent by being awful I guess a 4th option is being the Yanks/Red Sox but we know that's not possible since we wont spend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The key to a big run (5 to 7 years of success) is to do the following. 1. Identify 4 position players that are must haves and make sure they are here for at least 5 years. We have 5. Robert, Eloy, Vaughn, Moncada, Madrigal These are our cornerstone everyday players. These are five guys and you plug in draft picks and free agents around them. 2. Identify two pitchers who are must haves and here for 5 plus years. Kopech and Crochet. These are your concerstones and you can plug in 3 to 5 in the rotation with picks and free agents. If you notice we have five cornerstone position players and two pitchers here for 5 plus years already. That is a great start to achieve long term success. We also have in house guys that may be productive players in Cespedes, Cease, and Kelley. We have Gio for three more years and he may leave, but if Kopech, Crochet, and Cease can man the fort up top, you can sign a cheap vet on a short deal if you can't keep Gio. Tim Anderson is here another 4 years and if he leaves, you need to probably have a top draft pick or IFA ready to step in to give you solid production. Those are the only two guys we are in danger of losing in less than 5 years that truly matter. Tim's replacement may need to be acquired in a year or two. Gio will have no replacement, but we should have three guys for at least 5 years that can be TOR arms. So again, the key will be to have an established core of guys, and then fill in as necessary. We have a strong core that will be here at least 5 to 6 years from now. We need to have a quality draft and free agency plan to acquire productive players for cheap. It is doable. The hard part is having 5 cornerstone position players and two top pitchers for 5 to 6 years, which we will have even if you don't include Gio and Timmy. Lastly, i didn't include bullpen because they are volatile and can be traded for or purchased at a moments notice. Bringing back guys like Lynn and Abreu won't impact the 5 to 7 year window. I'm pointing out the necessities for keeping this ride going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Giollito to at least 2025 would be gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Line Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Jerry needs to buy a bigger window 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Most depressing part of this thread is the realization that we only have Engel for three more years. We’re screwed starting in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I'm pretty confident that the sox at least have 4 more years, possibly 5-6. Sure giolito is only there through 23 but I could see them extending him. And most of the good young position players are there at least through 25. They need more pitching after keuchel and lynn are gone but hopefully kopech, Kelley and crochet can fill that void. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2021 is to build arm strength and for Robert, Eloy and Madrigal to gain additional experience working through their first full MLB seasons (Eloy had one season over 60 games). The key to any World Series window is player development over the next two seasons. If you get two Kopech, Cease and Crochet to dveelop into top 3 starters, and cover their two outfield corners internally and move Eloy to DH/1B in 2023, they will have a legitimate shot at competing for a World Series. Beyond 2023, they need to commit future top contracts to Anderson and Lucas, and move away from the early-mid 30 year old free agents / trade acquisitions. This all assumes Jerry and Tony continue running the show. New ownership can institute consistent winning windows by upgrading the FO, field a consistent top 10 payroll, and invest in player development and talent acquisition in the States, to help complement Marco Paddy's great job. Young cost controlled players remain the key to consistent success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxJon Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Maybe this team will be a favorite for the next few years, but I think they'll be a perennial playoff team for an even longer time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, BrianAnderson said: Nice job on this post. Very detailed and allows reader to visualize it well. As a Packers fan I hope they follow the mold of teams like the Packers (for football) or Cardinals/Rays for baseball. Which is to say I hope we balance this run against the future flexibility. For the Packers it was walking away from guys like TJ Lang and Bryan Bulaga during some of their best years. It's been incredibly frustrating at times when they don't go out and get that extra piece that puts them over the top, but having decades of success is very fun. Same with Cardinals - I'd love to be them - they do the Rays model but with the ability to be more aggressive. They made that run at Stanton, brought in contracts like Goldy and Arenado, but balance that by walking away from guys like Wong this year. Rays obviously do it to a fault - letting Snell and his affordable contract go, Pham, etc. And i know all the people will say it's worth it to have one championship like the cubs and most of the fans are content with that. I'd like to raise the bar - I want a decade plus of constant success to raise our stature to being on par with the Cubs on a national basis. I want 30,000 fans each game for a decade -- not just for a few years. So what does that mean? To me it might mean trading away someone like a Cease in a year or two if he turns out well and parlaying that into additional players. Same with a Moncada. letting Abreu walk instead of trying to get an extra year out of him. Trading some of your bullpen pieces at a premium even during a World Series run. I think it means keeping and paying your "core" and then trading some of your nice pieces for volume trades to fill in besides them. My core would be: Robert, Eloy, Madrigal, Giolito, Vaughn, Kopech I'd be open to trading: Moncada, Anderson (on fence here - as he gets older his speed will diminish, that said SS is super stacked and so his price tag might not be terrible), Cease, Abreu, Keuchel A little controversial for sure, but there are three options for running a team like the sox heading towards a nice run: Cubs/Padres/etc. -- you go out and just spend and put really nice pieces next to your younger stars. you have a 3-4 year run of being a top, top team. You ride with them until you can't and then it all gets broken up and return to nothing for 3-4 years while reloading again. Cardinals/Rays/A's -- you do what is noted above - you balance going for it while trading guys at their top value and filling in with additional volume. There's levels to this - the Cardinals to me are the team to emulate - they spend some too, but remain on task Rockies - just sit on your guys, trade them for absolutely nothing like Arenado - Trevor Story, etc. Add in bad free agent pieces at high prices to supplement and miss -- wade davis, ian desmond, murphy, etc. etc. squander everything and all your talent by being awful I guess a 4th option is being the Yanks/Red Sox but we know that's not possible since we wont spend. Way too early to forecast that the Padres’ method will mirror the Cubs, because for that to happen you’d need some combination on injuries to top players (Bryant) and non-performance (Darvish for first half of Cubs’ run, Heyward, Kimbrel, Chatwood, etc.) But they have the minor league depth and especially pitching depth to sustain things at least through the end of the Tatis contract (four more years)...which should be around the time Machado’s prime has passed. Of course, the White Sox risk losing Giolito after 2023 and Anderson the following year. If anything, the Cubs and Royals look more similar (except on far different payroll scales), in that they hit early peaks in their window but had difficulty sustaining them. Edited February 3, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think the idea of trading some talented players over time to gain young guys who can form the next core is a really intriguing one. The Sox have done that better than they have drafted. So that would seem to be a necessary part of the talent acquisition mix. Drafting alone and international signings, plus free agency, cannot likely sustain this, especially since with success the Sox will no longer be drafting near the top. I would also add that it makes no sense to spend much money on what I've called "dubious veterans" who cost a lot but just block talented players that need to develop - Vaughn, Kopech and Collins being the 3 guys who need to play this year. Signing Jose Quintana would be an example of that. If you are going to add a veteran, it needs to be someone who is talented enough to make a difference, like Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, or Yasmani Grandal, or the extension of Jose Abreu, or the closer Liam Hendriks, who makes the rest of the bullpen better. The Sox have clearly arrived at their contention window. Development and improvement of their young core is going to be the key to their success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 The biggest question for the Sox that is upcoming is whether they are going to extend Lucas Giolito. This would be the year to do it. But with the CBA between players and owners up for renewal, and Giolito perhaps wanting to test free agency to maximize his earnings, it could be very hard to do. If the Sox are going to lose Giolito to free agency, they will have to consider trading him, which means after the 2022 season, to get any return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, VAfan said: The biggest question for the Sox that is upcoming is whether they are going to extend Lucas Giolito. This would be the year to do it. But with the CBA between players and owners up for renewal, and Giolito perhaps wanting to test free agency to maximize his earnings, it could be very hard to do. If the Sox are going to lose Giolito to free agency, they will have to consider trading him, which means after the 2022 season, to get any return. We are in win-now and have one of the best teams in the AL.. You don't trade your best pitcher regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 (edited) On 2/3/2021 at 1:49 PM, VAfan said: I think the idea of trading some talented players over time to gain young guys who can form the next core is a really intriguing one. The Sox have done that better than they have drafted. So that would seem to be a necessary part of the talent acquisition mix. Drafting alone and international signings, plus free agency, cannot likely sustain this, especially since with success the Sox will no longer be drafting near the top. I would also add that it makes no sense to spend much money on what I've called "dubious veterans" who cost a lot but just block talented players that need to develop - Vaughn, Kopech and Collins being the 3 guys who need to play this year. Signing Jose Quintana would be an example of that. If you are going to add a veteran, it needs to be someone who is talented enough to make a difference, like Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, or Yasmani Grandal, or the extension of Jose Abreu, or the closer Liam Hendriks, who makes the rest of the bullpen better. The Sox have clearly arrived at their contention window. Development and improvement of their young core is going to be the key to their success. Sure, but few teams have ever pulled it off. You’re asking to trade Giolito, Tim Anderson, Moncada (value down) or Luis Robert. At the moment, Vaughn would arguably be the fifth most valuable asset. You could never get fair value on Robert because of his last weeks, so cross him and Moncada off. That leaves Giolito and Anderson, your two team leaders, and Vaughn to deal. The only way it’s even conceivable is that Reinsdorf believes the 2022 season won’t happen...but that’s a real stretch. Edited February 4, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 They really have to start drafting better, especially in the first round if they want to have an extended window. They cant go on a run where they draft Fulmer, Collins and Burger back to back to back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Since Hostetler has taken over, the drafts have been a lot better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, VAfan said: The biggest question for the Sox that is upcoming is whether they are going to extend Lucas Giolito. This would be the year to do it. But with the CBA between players and owners up for renewal, and Giolito perhaps wanting to test free agency to maximize his earnings, it could be very hard to do. If the Sox are going to lose Giolito to free agency, they will have to consider trading him, which means after the 2022 season, to get any return. No one cares about this right now. Sure you try for the extension, but they sure as hell aren't going to trade him if Giolito doesn't extend this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Sure, but few teams have ever pulled it off. You’re asking to trade Giolito, Tim Anderson, Moncada (value down) or Luis Robert. At the moment, Vaughn would arguably be the fifth most valuable asset. You could never get fair value on Robert because of his last weeks, so cross him and Moncada off. That leaves Giolito and Anderson, your two team leaders, and Vaughn to deal. The only way it’s even conceivable is that Reinsdorf believes the 2022 season won’t happen...but that’s a real stretch. If JR trades off Giolito, Anderson, and other high-end players because he wants a deeper pool of gold to swim in, count me out as a fan until the man takes his permanent dirt nap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Since Hostetler has taken over, the drafts have been a lot better. Serious question - have they had anyone drafted contribute to the big league squad since then? Madrigal, Crochet a tiny bit, right? Hostetler took over in 2016, where Collins and Burdi were drafted? Maybe let's get someone to actually contribute as a successful big leaguer before we emphatically declare that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Serious question - have they had anyone drafted contribute to the big league squad since then? Madrigal, Crochet a tiny bit, right? Hostetler took over in 2016, where Collins and Burdi were drafted? Maybe let's get someone to actually contribute as a successful big leaguer before we emphatically declare that. Hostetler's first draft was 2017. He got hired shortly before the 2016 draft and whoever the guy was before him(Laumann?) did that one. So he's responsible for: Burger, Sheets, Madrigal, Vaughn, Crochet, Kelley, Stiever, Heuer, Thompson, Dalquist, etc. A lot of these guys it's too early to say one way or another whether or not he hit. You can't blame him for Burger's injury and I thought I heard in the BA report that Sheets could possibly stick in LF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: No one cares about this right now. Sure you try for the extension, but they sure as hell aren't going to trade him if Giolito doesn't extend this winter. They won't trade him now, but depending on what Kopech/Cease/Crochet do over the next 2 seasons, I could see them trading Giolito over after 2022 if he hasn't extended by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Jack Parkman said: They won't trade him now, but depending on what Kopech/Cease/Crochet do over the next 2 seasons, I could see them trading Giolito over after 2022 if he hasn't extended by then. If Sox are coming off of playoff appearances or expectations, they are not trading their Lucas Giolito. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: If Sox are coming off of playoff appearances or expectations, they are not trading their Lucas Giolito. What if all 3 of those guys are at least as good as Giolito is now? In that case, unless there is new ownership by then, they'd be really dumb not to do something like that. Edited February 4, 2021 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Jack Parkman said: What if all 3 of those guys are at least as good as Giolito is now? Then they are coming off of a World Series title and don't GAF about payroll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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