The White Sox 3-5 year window

[35thstreetswarm]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Teams that operate in the middle occasionally take the risk on a 9 figure contract, which the Sox have yet to do. They strategically pick their spots to spend on an expensive player. The Sox don't even do that. Even Robert and Moncada's extensions, if fully realized, will not reach 9 figures. 

The Sox do not take the calculated risks necessary to put their team over the top. 

There is no excuse for the Cardinals to have given out a higher contract than the Sox ever have. The Cardinals are a good example of a team that runs their team as a mid-market club properly. They pick their spots to spend and also let players that will get a ridiculous contract go. 

They gave Matt Holliday $120M back when that was a huge contract. 

Nobody is expecting the Sox to spend like the Dodgers, Yankees  or Sawx/Cubs(during their windows) 

We expect them to spend more than league average though. 

The last time the Sox established themselves as a contender they spent themselves into a top-five payroll for multiple years.  And it wasn't in the 60s or 70s, it was in the 2000s.  That's the history.  So there's reason to believe they'll spend more than league average as they get deeper into their sindow.  That they're league average in February 2021 hardly eliminates that possibility.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If he continues to get better and reaches free agency he absolutely will. 

If Bauer can get 200M, Giolito can. 

See Strasburg, Stephen.

Assuming Giolito has the wear and tear piled up from pitching 200ish innings the next 2-3 seasons, and well into the postseason on a consistent basis, Jerry Reinsdorf will never assume that kind of risk with a pitcher who’s already had one TJS.

Except for the Top 6-8 franchises in baseball, that’s too much risk.

After Darvish, not sure I can even see themselves tying down that kind of money like they did with Lester to kickstart their contention window.  Those were special circumstances with Epstein that are pretty rare.

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Teams that operate in the middle occasionally take the risk on a 9 figure contract, which the Sox have yet to do. They strategically pick their spots to spend on an expensive player. The Sox don't even do that. Even Robert and Moncada's extensions, if fully realized, will not reach 9 figures. 

The Sox do not take the calculated risks necessary to put their team over the top. 

There is no excuse for the Cardinals to have given out a higher contract than the Sox ever have. The Cardinals are a good example of a team that runs their team as a mid-market club properly. They pick their spots to spend and also let players that will get a ridiculous contract go. 

They gave Matt Holliday $120M back when that was a huge contract. 

Nobody is expecting the Sox to spend like the Dodgers, Yankees  or Sawx/Cubs(during their windows) 

We expect them to spend more than league average though. 

The key for any team under the current CBA is the acquisition and development of young talent. Even top payroll teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are unable to consistently field quality teams (90+ wins) if they fail to acquire and develop a significant number of younger prospects. Saint Louis and Tampa are examples of mid and low level payroll teams which consistently lead the majors in drafting, acquiring and developing solid players. Fans may focus on Holliday or Arenado, but the Cardinals live or die based on the many unheralded beyond those who closely follow the team/industry prospects, not their one or two high profile acquisitions of superstars.

People here / many fans will equate whether the current White Sox' rebuild is successful based on whether they win/reach a World Series, which is but a series of 3 (owners trying to increase it to 4) coin-flips. Better teams are slightly favored/advantaged to win each individual series, unlike the NBA/NFL where the top teams consistently win titles. The true measure is whether the White Sox can sustain consistent success with this core and beyond with new player acquisitions and improvements in player development beyond a 2-4 year window.

The White Sox have only had three teams capable of sustained success (three plus 90 win season) in their 120 year history, the reason the club owns a .502  all-time winning percentage.

• Jerry/Selig pulled the plug on the only team in my lifetime (Larry Himes drafted teams of 1990 & 1993 - likely would have been 1994 and beyond if it wasn't for Jerry's crusade to kill the players union and MLB).
• Judge Kennesaw KKK Landis pulled the plugged on the franchise's most memorable team (1915, 1917, 1920 (they only won 88 in 1919)) that would have continued success if eight men weren't out.
• The Lane, Comiskey/Rigney, Veeck/Greenberg, Short teams in the 1950s-60s. (1954, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1963, 1964, 1965).

Two of the all-time top three White Sox teams capable of sustained success were cursed. Will the Sox have such a team this decade, or will internal or external forces conspire to squash a run in the 2020s? Time will tell.

Edited February 5, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Jack Parkman]

23 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The last time the Sox established themselves as a contender they spent themselves into a top-five payroll for multiple years.  And it wasn't in the 60s or 70s, it was in the 2000s.  That's the history.  So there's reason to believe they'll spend more than league average as they get deeper into their sindow.  That they're league average in February 2021 hardly eliminates that possibility.

They'll get there eventually as the extensions already signed get more expensive and those without extensions enter arbitration. 

[VAfan]

8 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We are in win-now and have one of the best teams in the AL.. You don't trade your best pitcher regardless.  

Maybe my post wasn't clear. I am not advocating trading Giolito this year or next year. But in 2022, if the Sox can't extend him, I guarantee that will be one of the top debates on this board. 

[VAfan]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Teams that operate in the middle occasionally take the risk on a 9 figure contract, which the Sox have yet to do. They strategically pick their spots to spend on an expensive player. The Sox don't even do that. Even Robert and Moncada's extensions, if fully realized, will not reach 9 figures. 

The Sox do not take the calculated risks necessary to put their team over the top. 

There is no excuse for the Cardinals to have given out a higher contract than the Sox ever have. The Cardinals are a good example of a team that runs their team as a mid-market club properly. They pick their spots to spend and also let players that will get a ridiculous contract go. 

They gave Matt Holliday $120M back when that was a huge contract. 

Nobody is expecting the Sox to spend like the Dodgers, Yankees  or Sawx/Cubs(during their windows) 

We expect them to spend more than league average though. 

So far, the Sox have not taken a risk on a 9 figure contract. I'm not sure you can conclude from that that they never will. 

I mean, the Sox haven't had a team worthy of that kind of commitment to put them "over the top" since their 2005 WS team. They've only won 90 games once in that span, and it was 2006. 

I actually think Lucas Giolito could be the test case because the Sox should be contenders for the next 3 years with this roster. 

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, VAfan said:

So far, the Sox have not taken a risk on a 9 figure contract. I'm not sure you can conclude from that that they never will. 

I mean, the Sox haven't had a team worthy of that kind of commitment to put them "over the top" since their 2005 WS team. They've only won 90 games once in that span, and it was 2006. 

I actually think Lucas Giolito could be the test case because the Sox should be contenders for the next 3 years with this roster. 

They have risked 9 figure contracts.  They had the highest offer out to Wheeler at 9 figures, and lost.

[shago]

That starting pitching is nothing short of horrific.... not one, but two, Eddie Harris, past their prime starters pitching 2/3 and complete long shot / historic busts to round it out

[Chicago White Sox]

The key to extending our window is not trading our stars when they approach free agency, but being able to supplement them and/or replace them with cheap internal options as we move forward.  Right now, RF and the rotation have the most uncertainty.  The rotation at least has three high ceiling options that are major league ready in Kopech, Cease, & Crochet.  Hitting on at least two of them will be critical or we’ll be forced to unload assets for a controllable starter.  Down the road, the next wave of Kelley, Thompson, Vera, , & Dalquist can hopefully provide us with some reinforcements in the event Giolito, Lynn (if extended), and/or Keuchel leave.  Again, it’s very important to hit on a couple of the big three or we’ll likely be trading some of the Low A guys to fill near-term rotation holes and will potentially shorten the window.

RF is far & away the bigger challenge.  By signing Eaton, it’s clear they don’t want to commit big dollars to this spot at this time.  That means we desperately need one of our young OFs to step up and become a viable piece.  Cespedes would obviously be the favorite to become that player, but there is still a small degree of hope for Adolfo and Rutherford / Gonzalez to a lesser extent.  If those guys fail, it’s very possible we continue to dumpster dive until someone from that next wave becomes an option or we’ll be forced to trade for a controllable alternative.  The challenge there is only Bailey & Bush have an everyday starter type of ceiling at the moment and they are both a long ways away.  That puts a ton of pressure on Cespedes to work out or risk further depleting a thin farm system, which will also likely shorten the window.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The key to extending our window is not trading our stars when they approach free agency, but being able to supplement them and/or replace them with cheap internal options as we move forward.  Right now, RF and the rotation have the most uncertainty.  The rotation at least has three high ceiling options that are major league ready in Kopech, Cease, & Crochet.  Hitting on at least two of them will be critical or we’ll be forced to unload assets for a controllable starter.  Down the road, the next wave of Kelley, Thompson, Vera, , & Dalquist can hopefully provide us with some reinforcements in the event Giolito, Lynn (if extended), and/or Keuchel leave.  Again, it’s very important to hit on a couple of the big three or we’ll likely be trading some of the Low A guys to fill near-term rotation holes and will potentially shorten the window.

RF is far & away the bigger challenge.  By signing Eaton, it’s clear they don’t want to commit big dollars to this spot at this time.  That means we desperately need one of our young OFs to step up and become a viable piece.  Cespedes would obviously be the favorite to become that player, but there is still a small degree of hope for Adolfo and Rutherford / Gonzalez to a lesser extent.  If those guys fail, it’s very possible we continue to dumpster dive until someone from that next wave becomes an option or we’ll be forced to trade for a controllable alternative.  The challenge there is only Bailey & Bush have an everyday starter type of ceiling at the moment and they are both a long ways away.  That puts a ton of pressure on Cespedes to work out or risk further depleting a thin farm system, which will also likely shorten the window.

They have enough offense.  Colas could help there, too, but who’s to say the odds aren’t equal to Adolfo being a late bloomer?

It always comes down to the starting pitching.

Vera seems like the one to watch, of course, along with Kelley.

PS:  Or praying for a Renaldo Resurrection.  Btw, impressive list of names! 

 

[VAfan]

Just wanted to refresh this after the Lynn signing.  He's now under control for 3 more years.  

*******************

If you look at Spotrac, you can see who the Sox have under contractual control over the next several years.  

Starting Lineup 

- SS Tim Anderson - 2021, 22, 23, 24
- 3B Yoan Moncada - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- 1B Jose Abreu - 21, 22
- DH/LF Eloy Jimenez - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- C Yasmani Grandal - 21, 22, 23
- LF/DH/1B - Andrew Vaughn - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- CF Luis Robert - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27
- RF Adam Eaton - 21, 22  Adam Engel, 21, 22, 23  --
- 2B Nick Madrigal - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26

Bench

- Utility Leury Garcia - 21
- C Zack Collins - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- OF Adam Engel - 21, 22, 23   
- OF Brian Goodwin 21, 22
- Extra bench player??? There could be room for another player here. 
 - Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets?

Starting pitchers

- Lucas Giolito - 21, 22, 23
- Dallas Keuchel - 21, 22, 23
- Lance Lynn - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Dylan Cease - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Carlos Rodon - 21
- Reynaldo Lopez - 21, 22, 23

Bullpen

- Liam Hendriks - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Aaron Bummer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Evan Marshall - 21, 22
- Matt Foster - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Cody Heuer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Jace Fry - 21, 22, 23
- Jimmy Cordero - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Zack Burdi -, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26

Transition Pitcher

- Garrett Crochet - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Michael Kopech - 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 26

2021 Payroll allocation - $123M
2022 Payroll - $116M - no arb  (not updated)
2023 Payroll - $86M - 10 arb (not updated)
2024 Payroll - $85M - 7 arb (not updated)

************

Assuming they exercise options:

In 2022, they could lose: Garcia, Rodon
In 2023, they could lose: Abreu, Eaton, Marshall
In 2024, they could lose: Grandal, Engel, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry

****************

This looks like an incredibly talented team given what we've learned since I wrote this before the season.  

I think most of us hope that the Sox re-sign Carlos Rodon.  If they were able to do that, they should try to unload Keuchel's contract even if they received next to nothing in return.  That would give the Sox the best starting staff in baseball for at least the next 2 seasons to make a run at the World Series.  

The bullpen would need some shoring up.

But the lineup should be terrific if it can stay healthy.  Right field is the only weakness, but I think the Sox can get by with a combo of Adam Engel and Brian Goodwin, since they will have been forced to spend their money elsewhere.  

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Honestly, I would attach a prospect with Keuchel this offseason just to unload that contract. Then use that money to bring back Rodon.

[YoYoIsMyHero]

57 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Honestly, I would attach a prospect with Keuchel this offseason just to unload that contract. Then use that money to bring back Rodon.

I think Keuchel can be valuable as a David Price style arm in the pen IMO and then his option probably wont hit

[ron883]

On 2/4/2021 at 12:57 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I know......The Sox operate in this weird middle ground, where they refuse to give out 9 figure contracts and they also refuse to trade players deserving of them while they still have a year or two team control. What I am saying is that this is the most asinine position to take. Either you sign the guy or you trade them for players that can help in a year or two.......however with the way that top prospects are being valued in the current market, I could see the argument for them keeping a guy in his walk year.  

We'll see how the Rays and Cleveland made out in a year or two. 

If the Sox are going to continue to have a refusal to hand out 9 figure contracts, then maybe they should consider doing what those teams do. 

The issue with how the Sox are run is that they continue to walk the line between being a big market club and a small market club. Pick a lane. 

I want them to just be honest with their fans about what their budget is like. If they're going to go frugal, then we can hold them accountable when they DON'T act like Cleveland and Tampa, because if they're being that way, that's what they SHOULD do. I have no problems with them having a budget or whatnot, but don't act like Machado is an actual fucking possibility then, and behave accordingly. Be willing to take a step back in the middle of a window to minimize non-contention. 

My issue is that they continually lie to the fanbase about spending, and then do stupid shit like trade Dane Dunning for Lance Lynn. That's something that a big market club does.....that sets expectations. 

My issue is that the Sox operate in the most fan-unfriendly way on both lanes. They do all of the dumb shit for team building on both ends of the payroll spectrum and none of the smart things. 

What good is having financial flexibility if you never use it? 

LOL, sorry Jack, I can't resist. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

Just wanted to refresh this after the Lynn signing.  He's now under control for 3 more years.  

*******************

If you look at Spotrac, you can see who the Sox have under contractual control over the next several years.  

Starting Lineup 

- SS Tim Anderson - 2021, 22, 23, 24
- 3B Yoan Moncada - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- 1B Jose Abreu - 21, 22
- DH/LF Eloy Jimenez - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- C Yasmani Grandal - 21, 22, 23
- LF/DH/1B - Andrew Vaughn - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- CF Luis Robert - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27
- RF Adam Eaton - 21, 22  Adam Engel, 21, 22, 23  --
- 2B Nick Madrigal - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26

Bench

- Utility Leury Garcia - 21
- C Zack Collins - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- OF Adam Engel - 21, 22, 23   
- OF Brian Goodwin 21, 22
- Extra bench player??? There could be room for another player here. 
 - Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets?

Starting pitchers

- Lucas Giolito - 21, 22, 23
- Dallas Keuchel - 21, 22, 23
- Lance Lynn - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Dylan Cease - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Carlos Rodon - 21
- Reynaldo Lopez - 21, 22, 23

Bullpen

- Liam Hendriks - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Aaron Bummer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Evan Marshall - 21, 22
- Matt Foster - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Cody Heuer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Jace Fry - 21, 22, 23
- Jimmy Cordero - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Zack Burdi -, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26

Transition Pitcher

- Garrett Crochet - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Michael Kopech - 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 26

2021 Payroll allocation - $123M
2022 Payroll - $116M - no arb  (not updated)
2023 Payroll - $86M - 10 arb (not updated)
2024 Payroll - $85M - 7 arb (not updated)

************

Assuming they exercise options:

In 2022, they could lose: Garcia, Rodon
In 2023, they could lose: Abreu, Eaton, Marshall
In 2024, they could lose: Grandal, Engel, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry

****************

This looks like an incredibly talented team given what we've learned since I wrote this before the season.  

I think most of us hope that the Sox re-sign Carlos Rodon.  If they were able to do that, they should try to unload Keuchel's contract even if they received next to nothing in return.  That would give the Sox the best starting staff in baseball for at least the next 2 seasons to make a run at the World Series.  

The bullpen would need some shoring up.

But the lineup should be terrific if it can stay healthy.  Right field is the only weakness, but I think the Sox can get by with a combo of Adam Engel and Brian Goodwin, since they will have been forced to spend their money elsewhere.  

FYI...Kopech is only controllable through 2025 (four more years of control after this season) and we definitely will have some arb eligible players this offseason.

[Jack Parkman]

6 hours ago, ron883 said:

LOL, sorry Jack, I can't resist. 

I should have said trade Dane Dunning for a rental. That was the issue. Had more to do with team control 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[CentralChamps21]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

FYI...Kopech is only controllable through 2025 (four more years of control after this season) and we definitely will have some arb eligible players this offseason.

I have Marshal as arb3, Giolito, Engel and Fry as arb2. Nobody would be arb1

[TheCommish]

So with the above contracts, our core (not including rookies and fill in type players, which should account for no more than $5-10M/yr)

2022 - 145.3 (with Lynn)

2023 - 153.3

2024 - 163.1

those are all assuming we pick up 100% of the options. 

To keep the core together you make the following 2 signings:

Abrue - 2 years / 32M - with 3rd year option at 12M

Rodon - 3 years / 63M (20,21,22 1M year escalating contract)

which brings you to:

2022 - 163.3

2023 - 188.3 (if you keep Keuchel from 150 IP, then this reduces to 168.3)

2024 - 163.1 (BIGGEST LOSS IS GRANDAL)

This keeps us at around 163 for the next 3 years after this year. We fill RF with our young position players (Cespedes, Sheets, Burger, Colas) and our Rotation fills with Kopech in place of Keuchel and Crochet as our 6th man to fill in when needed. 

[caulfield12]

They’re going to have to make some concessions to the acquiring team…doesn’t Keuchel have the right to refuse a trade if they can make the case he is not being given a legit or fair opportunity to hit his 150 IP target and will lose his 2023 option year?

Usually teams have to figure out a way to meet in the middle for these sorts of ongoing obligations.

 

“2024 Vesting Option vests with 320 IP across 2021-2022, including 160 IP in 2022“

 

Essentially they’re looking at up to $38 million in contract responsibility.  If I am another team, the minimum I ask the White Sox to pay is somewhere in the $8-12 million range, which is going to severely limit how much “freed up” money there would be for the 2022 season.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by caulfield12

[EloyJenkins]

1 hour ago, TheCommish said:

 

To keep the core together you make the following 2 signings:

Abrue - 2 years / 32M - with 3rd year option at 12M

Rodon - 3 years / 63M (20,21,22 1M year escalating contract).

 

You do not need to resign Abreu. He still is under contract next season and he absolutely will NOT get more than 10 mil a year from 2023 on. He is old, his stats are diminishing and he loves this team so he will take a reduced salary IF they have a place for him in 2023. IMO, they don't, unless he is willing to be a bench player / occasional 1st baseman and the money should be spent elsewhere anyways. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by EloyJenkins

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

You do not need to resign Abreu. He still is under contract next season and he absolutely will NOT get more than 10 mil a year from 2023 on. He is old, his stats are diminishing and he loves this team so he will take a reduced salary IF they have a place for him in 2023. IMO, they don't, unless he is willing to be a bench player / occasional 1st baseman and the money should be spent elsewhere anyways. 

Ron’s less inflammatory alternate handle?

Edited July 19, 2021 by caulfield12

[reiks12]

35 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

You do not need to resign Abreu. He still is under contract next season and he absolutely will NOT get more than 10 mil a year from 2023 on. He is old, his stats are diminishing and he loves this team so he will take a reduced salary IF they have a place for him in 2023. IMO, they don't, unless he is willing to be a bench player / occasional 1st baseman and the money should be spent elsewhere anyways. 

This is Jerry's White Sox. He loves Abreu like he loved Konerko. Abreu will be our starting first basemen and batting 3rd until hes 40 years old if Jerry wills it.

[gogosox1959]

20 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

This is Jerry's White Sox. He loves Abreu like he loved Konerko. Abreu will be our starting first basemen and batting 3rd until hes 40 years old if Jerry wills it.

Abreu is a very proud man.  I believe that he won't want to hang around once his performance drops below a certain level.  He won't embarrass himself.

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

This is Jerry's White Sox. He loves Abreu like he loved Konerko. Abreu will be our starting first basemen and batting 3rd until hes 40 years old if Jerry wills it.

Or Harold Baines…

[he gone.]

disclaimer: i am all for enjoying the day to day of this run. every single day is fun with this team, the park being packed is a joy, and it would seem we have an endless supply of depth on deck for any key injuries over the next couple years. This is what sitting through Saladino, Tilson, Nicky D, Derek Holland was all about. 

That said! (haha) it is interesting to see what the Cubs are currently going through. Personally, I do not want to be them in 4-5 years. I strive to be the Cardinals. (Or the Rays) or the A's. The Ray's and A's are probably bad examples because they operate too thinly where they really never break out the pocketbooks, however they're constantly making tough decisions about very good players who are about to get paid and then flipping them for younger, cheaper, controllable guys. They're obviously the outlier. It's hard to continuously make good trades like them and remain in contention. I'd rather be more of the Cardinals model which is kind of the Rays lite. Some trades, but also mixing in some bigger commitments in guys like Goldy and Arenado. 

For the Rays - I mean we're talking Blake Snell. Tommy Pham. Chris Archer. Hell, it's Willy Adames - where that trade looks bad. It's trading Nate Lowe. Trading Matthew Liberatore for Arozorena. Trading Jesus Sanchez (those last two Liberatore and Jesus Sanchez are nice, nice prospects now w the marlins and cards). They traded Nick Solak. Evan Longoria. It goes on and on and on. 

Meanwhile you have the Cubs - who admittedly were in a tough position, but who, much like the Padres went for it all. They basically chose to ride it out with these guys even on a flawed team. it would've taken a lot of breaks over the past 2.5 years to go the cubs way and get through the playoffs with that team. Now those guys are older, not controllable, and not going to return any value. It's kind of like the Rockies - instead of churning Arenado, Story, etc at highs, now they get nothing in return. So it's always the balance question. 

Currently we have a pretty weak minors system - probably bottom 5. and - it should be. We've graduated a whole damn team who is controllable. over the next 2-3 years it's going to be extremely important to restock that via draft, but also supplemental trades for not only depth, but payroll costs, and continuous winning. Who would you be willing to part with during a 3-5 year window as we're competing for a trophy, to continuously supplement and support the future?

To me, names I'd consider: (this will be unpopular)

Eloy - he's obviously locked in through 2026. But if we're talking a guy who maybe doesn't have the intangible tools outside of his bat and could return a big package? Eloy is probably right up there. Come 2023/24 he'd be the type of guy i'd be willing to listen on. Kind of a carlos lee type guy. When you lose him, although a great bat, it can almost be made up in another way via the field, speed, intangibles etc. 

Giolito - we have him through 23. i think it's probably certain he's not going to take a discount to stay. it's a bit soon to react about the spin rates and sticky stuff and would expect him to turn back into an ace. That said, JR isn't getting him for 3-4 year deal, so you'll get a comp pick. Can you flip him to an NL contender and slot in Crochet with reasonable results? Rodon? I just think if we're being very heady about this, you may have a comparable talent in some of our other guys. Wouldn't be opposed to locking up a Rodon and trading a Gio at a peak returning a very, very strong package of guys.

Keuchel - this is not so much a return, you won't get one. But opening up payroll to supplement a bullpen or bench need. Arguably you can get more of his salary if it's gone. 

Heuer - this one isn't realistic this year. But these type of guys - the guys who sky rocket one year - can you trade them immediately? Remember when we were discussing Burnes and Heuer was being thrown around as part of the package. Sometimes a bit of seasoning on these guys really plummets their trade value. I wouldn't mind selling high on some guys. sure some may turn out to be actual stars, but thats the risk. 

 

likely not a fun topic and one that will take heat, but being the larger market team in a bad division i think we should strive for 8 playoff seasons in 10 years type of goals, not just 3-5 years of dominance and then repeat of nicky delmonico's again.