Did We Go Cheap Not Signing Another Bat?

[mac9001]

I feel really good about our likely DH production. It just seems we have enough internal options where somebody will step up and produce. I feel significantly less confident about the back end of the rotation. 

[Bob Sacamano]

33 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

 

We always get our guy.

Edit: it would be nice if he had anything left in the tank in the OF but that seems like a dream after surgeries on both heels.

Edited February 7, 2021 by manbearpuig

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

13 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

We always get our guy.

Would not surprise me one bit.

[turnin' two]

I think they definitely cheaped out.  By spending 8 million (ish) on Quintana, and 8 million (ish) on Rosario, this team could have had a good dependable 4th starter, and a LH bat that could DH (and play some OF in a pinch).  Obviously time will tell, but I think these additions, for not really a lot by MLB payroll standards, could have taken this from a really good team, to what is certainly the favorite in the AL Central, and probably the AL.

[vilehoopster]

35 minutes ago, mac9001 said:

I feel really good about our likely DH production. It just seems we have enough internal options where somebody will step up and produce. I feel significantly less confident about the back end of the rotation. 

I feel the exact opposite. I feel okay about our DH situation, but feel confident that, no matter who it is, we'll be much less bad than last year with EE. 

My optimism is with the back end of our starting rotation. All four guys there have pretty big upsides. I would say that Cease and Kopech have huge upsides (TOR stuff), and Rodan and Lopez have very good upsides (Let's say solid 3- starter upside). Now, I admit that these percentages are totally off my head, but I think there's some validity there somewhere, and I think I might be being a little conservative in my expectation here, but here goes: 

I think Cease has a 30% chance of approaching his huge upside in 2021. 

With Kopech, for the 2nd half of the season when he comes up, I would say he has a 25% chance of approaching his huge upside. 

I would say with Rodon, due to fear of injuries, he has a 20% chance of being a good 3-level pitcher for our World Series contender. 

With Lopez, I'll say a 10% chance of becoming a solid 3rd starter on a contending team.

Now, add all those up: (and to a simplistic degree odds do work like this), with four options with strong upsides and the odds come to 85% likely that the Sox have, at least, one good pitcher from that group of four.  I think there's a chance that the Sox are very strong with their 4th starter, strong to the point where if Keuchel takes a little step back from last year, the Sox will still be very strong in, at least, their 1st four starters. 

To be honest (and I am an optimistic fan), I think I devalued the odds for Cease, Rodon, and Lopez, but I think I overrated Kopech a little. But that is my weird logic about why I feel good about the back end of our starting rotation. 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by vilehoopster
I left out a word

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Would not surprise me one bit.

Might as well sign Choo instead.

[wrathofhahn]

Not signing a DH is easily the biggest mistake of the off-season they aren't expensive and we literally were dead last in the AL  All our eggs seem to be in Vaughn being able to step in day 1

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

14 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Might as well sign Choo instead.

Except Cespedes checks so many White Sox requirements:

- was sought after many years ago

- old, aging veteran

- has a family member in the system

[southsideirish71]

35 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I feel the exact opposite. I feel okay about our DH situation, but feel confident that, no matter who it is, we'll be much less bad than last year with EE. 

My optimism is with the back end of our starting rotation. All four guys there have pretty big upsides. I would say that Cease and Kopech have huge upsides (TOR stuff), and Rodan and Lopez have very good upsides (Let's say solid 3- starter upside). Now, I admit that these percentages are totally off my head, but I think there's some validity there somewhere, and I think I might be being a little conservative in my expectation here, but here goes: 

 I think Cease has a 30% chance of approaching his huge upside in 2021. 

With Kopech, for the 2nd half of the season when he comes up, I would say he has a 25% chance of approaching his huge upside. 

I would say with Rodon, due to fear of injuries, he has a 20% chance of being a good 3-level pitcher for our World Series contender. 

With Lopez, I'll say a 10% chance of becoming a solid 3rd starter on a contending team.

Now, add all those up: (and to a simplistic degree odds do work like this), with four options with strong upsides and the odds come to 85% likely that the Sox have, at least, one good pitcher from that group of four.  I think there's a chance that the Sox are very strong with their 4th starter, strong to the point where if Keuchel takes a little step back from last year, the Sox will still be very strong in, at least, their 1st four starters. 

To be honest (and I am an optimistic fan), I think I devalued the odds for Cease, Rodon, and Lopez, but I think I overrated Kopech a little. But that is my weird logic about why I feel good about the back end of our starting rotation. 

 

I would say made-up statistics have a 78.3% chance of being wrong.  

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Except Cespedes checks so many White Sox requirements:

- was sought after many years ago

- old, aging veteran

- has a family member in the system

Can serve as role model for Burger in his recovery, or lack thereof...well, certainly at least Yoelquis.

Improves White Sox players’ car collection by 50%.

[smellysox]

Al's cheesy beef says his source says that Cespedes to the whitesox is a real possibility.  Would start 4 days a week rotating between LF, RF, and DH.

NSCishek made it sound like a possibility too. Maybe this needs its own thread.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Thanks for posting this...and post more often.   It is the oddest thing that so many of the regular posters seem to hate the team.  I have followed the team like a religion since the early 70's and this is not only the best young team I've followed they might have the best farm team too...and a hall of fame manager, and are managing the budget to try to keep the window open for the longest time possible...and yet somehow every positive is a hidden negative and every negative is a fatal flaw.   Just know that there are a lot of us silently watching.  If we can't enjoy this team now we can never enjoy anything.      

I think you mean the farm system of 2-3 years ago.

If you told me TLR, Hahn and KW can make it through the season together peacefully and Robert/Moncada can consistently maintain an 850-900 OPS, would feel a lot better.

It’s always excitement tempered by nervousness in these situations.

Any White Sox fan would also tell you those 1977, 83, 2000, 2005 and 2008 teams came out of nowhere.  (Or that the 2003 team or 2006 team before the wheels came off from injuries were the most talented.)

When expectations increased the following season, invariably disappointment.  You can even say the same for 2011 when we added Dunn...then 2012 under new manager Ventura was a positive albeit ephemeral shock, other than the last two weeks.  Or the year we brought in Samardzija, Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche, etc.

Basically, they’re going to have to prove they belong in a full season.  Nobody’s going to be all that happy if they make it as a wild card and get eliminated quickly, the expanded playoff format bailed them out last year.  Then again, perhaps Renteria doesn’t take his foot off the gas the last couple of weeks and let the Twins and Indians overtake them with only 5 teams eligible for postseason.

[vilehoopster]

26 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

I would say made-up statistics have a 78.3% chance of being wrong.  

So, I have a 21.7% chance of being correct. I'll take that. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Thanks for posting this...and post more often.   It is the oddest thing that so many of the regular posters seem to hate the team.  I have followed the team like a religion since the early 70's and this is not only the best young team I've followed they might have the best farm team too...and a hall of fame manager, and are managing the budget to try to keep the window open for the longest time possible...and yet somehow every positive is a hidden negative and every negative is a fatal flaw.   Just know that there are a lot of us silently watching.  If we can't enjoy this team now we can never enjoy anything.      

It’s the nature of message boards. I don’t think it’ll ever change, regardless of the team or sport. 

I agree with you, by the way. 

[Ducksnort]

1 hour ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Except Cespedes checks so many White Sox requirements:

- was sought after many years ago

- old, aging veteran

- has a family member in the system

Now that's funny. Maybe he's secretly Manny Machado's cousin too

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It’s the nature of message boards. I don’t think it’ll ever change, regardless of the team or sport. 

I agree with you, by the way. 

Hating the team is not something fans do.  It’s invariably the front office/ownership group.  Or the manager.  Or the pitching/hitting coach, etc.

What good, for example, was hating Mazara and EE when most Sox fans were already skeptical about them from the get go?

On the player side, Madrigal has undoubtedly been the most polarizing from the moment he was drafted.  He’s supposed to represent the player whose value can’t easily be measured in terms of intangibles, which drives the younger generation of more statistically-oriented fans crazy.

[Vote4Pedro]

29 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Al's cheesy beef says his source says that Cespedes to the whitesox is a real possibility.  Would start 4 days a week rotating between LF, RF, and DH.

NSCishek made it sound like a possibility too. Maybe this needs its own thread.

I don’t have an issue with this with what is left out there until Vaughn makes his debut. Minor league deal, if he becomes an issue just cut him

[michelangelosmonkey]

38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I think you mean the farm system of 2-3 years ago.

If you told me TLR, Hahn and KW can make it through the season together peacefully and Robert/Moncada can consistently maintain an 850-900 OPS, would feel a lot better.

It’s always excitement tempered by nervousness in these situations.

Any White Sox fan would also tell you those 1977, 83, 2000, 2005 and 2008 teams came out of nowhere.  (Or that the 2003 team or 2006 team before the wheels came off from injuries were the most talented.)

When expectations increased the following season, invariably disappointment.  You can even say the same for 2011 when we added Dunn...then 2012 under new manager Ventura was a positive albeit ephemeral shock, other than the last two weeks.  Or the year we brought in Samardzija, Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche, etc.

Basically, they’re going to have to prove they belong in a full season.  Nobody’s going to be all that happy if they make it as a wild card and get eliminated quickly, the expanded playoff format bailed them out last year.  Then again, perhaps Renteria doesn’t take his foot off the gas the last couple of weeks and let the Twins and Indians overtake them with only 5 teams eligible for postseason.

I think that is entirely fair...life is filled with a series of disappointments...I think the greatest team I followed was that 1994 team that ended with the strike.  Still I feel it's different...I feel like we could have the makings of a super team...the A's or Reds of the 70's.  And yes it's fair to prick that balloon...but half the fun of winning is the expectations...and the joy of having national media guys remember that there are actually two teams in Chicago.  Why couldn't Vaughn come up and hit like Frank Thomas as a rookie?   Why couldn't your fifth starter be Kopech for three and Crochett for three?   Let's see if all these 25 and younger players can really jell into a great team.  I don't want to start the panic trading or panic buying yet.  

As for the Farm System...I'm never that excited about a system that could produce a dozen major leaguers if they are a dozen solid average players.   One Frank Thomas is worth a dozen Tyler Flowers or Yolmer Sanchezs.  They are obviously worth something but if your system produces one star your can go pick up the Sanchez's and Flowers, Today, with all the young talent we've brought up the last few years we still have as our top five Kopech, Vaughn, Crochett, Madrigal and Kelly.  Each could realistically be a special player.   Top four have even looked special against major leaguers.   OK...maybe last years list is better but this is very exciting.

 

 

[iWiN4PreP]

Honestly, at this point in the offseason where all my hopes have been killed...

I'd be pretty happy getting Yoenis Cespedes.

Playing him a few times in RF over Eaton, playing him at DH in the early going until Vaughn gets ready. I could get behind it. He's had success. 

Don't get me wrong, I'd do a million other things before this. But give me this over nothing. At least it makes a cool story with his bro and the fit

[SoCalChiSox]

Great....another right hander.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Hating the team is not something fans do.  It’s invariably the front office/ownership group.  Or the manager.  Or the pitching/hitting coach, etc.

What good, for example, was hating Mazara and EE when most Sox fans were already skeptical about them from the get go?

This. I felt a few GMs/Managers were/are incompetent, and there will always be players who don't work out based on talent, injuries or other factors (example poor decisions like La Russa dumping Fisk out in Left Field).

However, in 45 years of White Sox fandom, there are only four people (two players, one manager and one owner - sadly two of the four returned this off-season)  in White Sox history I ever booed, primarily based on actions outside of the field. The first base coach is now number five, I wasn't aware of his past until joining this board.

The Sox had no intentions on having a legitimate contender last year (COVID/Central short schedule were the reasons), and this year is primarily for pitching development (Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon and Lopez), hoping to have a solid 4-5 pitchers for 2022-2024. The time to judge whether they are cheap or not is not this season, but rather their true window of 2022-2024. They may catch lightening in a bottle this year, but it is likely they won't be serious contenders beyond the AL Central until next year at the earliest.

[iWiN4PreP]

12 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This. I felt a few GMs/Managers were/are incompetent, and there will always be players who don't work out based on talent, injuries or other factors (example poor decisions like La Russa dumping Fisk out in Left Field).

However, in 45 years of White Sox fandom, there are only four people (two players, one manager and one owner - sadly two of the four returned this off-season)  in White Sox history I ever booed, primarily based on actions outside of the field. The first base coach is now number five, I wasn't aware of his past until joining this board.

The Sox had no intentions on having a legitimate contender last year (COVID/Central short schedule were the reasons), and this year is primarily for pitching development (Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon and Lopez), hoping to have a solid 4-5 pitchers for 2022-2024. The time to judge whether they are cheap or not is not this season, but rather their true window of 2022-2024. They may catch lightening in a bottle this year, but it is likely they won't be serious contenders beyond the AL Central until next year at the earliest.

What are they waiting for

[Blackout Friday]

Yes

[Eminor3rd]

6 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

I feel the exact opposite. I feel okay about our DH situation, but feel confident that, no matter who it is, we'll be much less bad than last year with EE. 

My optimism is with the back end of our starting rotation. All four guys there have pretty big upsides. I would say that Cease and Kopech have huge upsides (TOR stuff), and Rodan and Lopez have very good upsides (Let's say solid 3- starter upside). Now, I admit that these percentages are totally off my head, but I think there's some validity there somewhere, and I think I might be being a little conservative in my expectation here, but here goes: 

I think Cease has a 30% chance of approaching his huge upside in 2021. 

With Kopech, for the 2nd half of the season when he comes up, I would say he has a 25% chance of approaching his huge upside. 

I would say with Rodon, due to fear of injuries, he has a 20% chance of being a good 3-level pitcher for our World Series contender. 

With Lopez, I'll say a 10% chance of becoming a solid 3rd starter on a contending team.

Now, add all those up: (and to a simplistic degree odds do work like this), with four options with strong upsides and the odds come to 85% likely that the Sox have, at least, one good pitcher from that group of four.  I think there's a chance that the Sox are very strong with their 4th starter, strong to the point where if Keuchel takes a little step back from last year, the Sox will still be very strong in, at least, their 1st four starters. 

To be honest (and I am an optimistic fan), I think I devalued the odds for Cease, Rodon, and Lopez, but I think I overrated Kopech a little. But that is my weird logic about why I feel good about the back end of our starting rotation. 

 

Lol, that is NOT how math works. 

[caulfield12]

59 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This. I felt a few GMs/Managers were/are incompetent, and there will always be players who don't work out based on talent, injuries or other factors (example poor decisions like La Russa dumping Fisk out in Left Field).

However, in 45 years of White Sox fandom, there are only four people (two players, one manager and one owner - sadly two of the four returned this off-season)  in White Sox history I ever booed, primarily based on actions outside of the field. The first base coach is now number five, I wasn't aware of his past until joining this board.

The Sox had no intentions on having a legitimate contender last year (COVID/Central short schedule were the reasons), and this year is primarily for pitching development (Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon and Lopez), hoping to have a solid 4-5 pitchers for 2022-2024. The time to judge whether they are cheap or not is not this season, but rather their true window of 2022-2024. They may catch lightening in a bottle this year, but it is likely they won't be serious contenders beyond the AL Central until next year at the earliest.

Which is a SLIGHT problem when it’s looking more and more probable Giolito will be gone after 2023.  That said, he’s the main loss until Anderson after the following year.

However you look at, doing much beyond 2024 is going to be highly uncertain for the two looming super teams in Chicago and San Diego.  Of course, you’re always going to have the Dodgers, Yankees and likely the Braves or Blue Jays to contend with over these must-be-competitive seasons.

Edited February 8, 2021 by caulfield12