NFL 2021 offseason thread

[southsider2k5]

Let the Bears-ing begin.

[knightni]

Bears trying to give away more 1st round picks and sabotage themselves again.

Pace is out thinking himself and Nagy was an excellent coordinator in Kansas City, but is not a head coach.

[Chisoxfn]

I thought Bmags post in the other thread was absolutely perfect. Everyone asking the Bears to do nothing - well - that isn't what is going to happen.  The front office brought back Pace/Nagy for at least another year. So recognize the fact that they aren't going to just blow it all up. It isn't happening.  I recognize that for most on this board - that is the only outcome that is acceptable - but you know what - it isn't happening this year.  

And instead of rooting for pure misery next year - I'll root the opposite and hope that the defense refinds its way to top 10, with Goldman coming back and maybe a bit better scheme. And I'll hope the franchise can maybe find a guy who can be a top 10 QB in this league at a reasonable deal - without mortgaging the future.  

[Chisoxfn]

Everyone knows where I stand on Wentz - but don't you find it interesting - that the reported teams showing the most interest are the Bears & Colts.  We all know the Bears have a desperate front office / coaching staff - so we can discount that.  But they also have the QB coach (Defillipo) who worked with Wentz at his best and nothing about that experience has been enough of a red flag.

Similarly - the Colts have Reich as HC - who worked with Wentz at his best and they seem to be aggressively working towards Wentz. Now - I have no idea why if I'm Wentz I'd choose the Bears of Colts - so at some point - if Eagles give Wentz any consideration - I would think Wentz would lean to Colts over Bears - since Reich is HC and on pretty sturdy ground.  However - the lure of a major market could be a big deal too - plus maybe staying in NFC and sticking it to the Eagles.

I don't know how Wentz is motivated - but if he has any of that Rodgers edge to him - I could see him being a MONSTER next year (in as good a way as possible).  

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Everyone knows where I stand on Wentz - but don't you find it interesting - that the reported teams showing the most interest are the Bears & Colts.  We all know the Bears have a desperate front office / coaching staff - so we can discount that.  But they also have the QB coach (Defillipo) who worked with Wentz at his best and nothing about that experience has been enough of a red flag.

Similarly - the Colts have Reich as HC - who worked with Wentz at his best and they seem to be aggressively working towards Wentz. Now - I have no idea why if I'm Wentz I'd choose the Bears of Colts - so at some point - if Eagles give Wentz any consideration - I would think Wentz would lean to Colts over Bears - since Reich is HC and on pretty sturdy ground.  However - the lure of a major market could be a big deal too - plus maybe staying in NFC and sticking it to the Eagles.

I don't know how Wentz is motivated - but if he has any of that Rodgers edge to him - I could see him being a MONSTER next year (in as good a way as possible).  

Wentz is a terrible personality. That's why all of his former coaches are the ones trying to trade for him.

[Chisoxfn]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Wentz is a terrible personality. That's why all of his former coaches are the ones trying to trade for him.

Howie roseman sounds like a disaster and I can't tell if Pederson kind of had success get to him or just couldn't stomp it out. But I certainly am not going to say Wentz is perfect either - he does sound like he has some Cutler in him - in the sense that he is going to maybe stick to his small circles when he feels uncomfortable / pushed. But that is when he's been pushed / not feeling trust - it sounds like when he is in a good place - he can be and has shown to be a pretty dynamic leader...which Jay never did (he was always the more reserved guy who was obviously not the natural leader most people think of when they think of QB's).  

I just think the above negative narrative has been way overplayed like you said so elegantly - his former coaches seems to think otherwise.  

[bmags]

 

He has previously said it is not two firsts, but will be interesting to see.

[whitesoxfan99]

33 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Everyone knows where I stand on Wentz - but don't you find it interesting - that the reported teams showing the most interest are the Bears & Colts.  We all know the Bears have a desperate front office / coaching staff - so we can discount that.  But they also have the QB coach (Defillipo) who worked with Wentz at his best and nothing about that experience has been enough of a red flag.

Similarly - the Colts have Reich as HC - who worked with Wentz at his best and they seem to be aggressively working towards Wentz. Now - I have no idea why if I'm Wentz I'd choose the Bears of Colts - so at some point - if Eagles give Wentz any consideration - I would think Wentz would lean to Colts over Bears - since Reich is HC and on pretty sturdy ground.  However - the lure of a major market could be a big deal too - plus maybe staying in NFC and sticking it to the Eagles.

I don't know how Wentz is motivated - but if he has any of that Rodgers edge to him - I could see him being a MONSTER next year (in as good a way as possible).  

This Bears staff also heavily worked with Foles and thought he was worthwhile to bring in.  Just saying

[Soxbadger]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

I thought Bmags post in the other thread was absolutely perfect. Everyone asking the Bears to do nothing - well - that isn't what is going to happen.  The front office brought back Pace/Nagy for at least another year. So recognize the fact that they aren't going to just blow it all up. It isn't happening.  I recognize that for most on this board - that is the only outcome that is acceptable - but you know what - it isn't happening this year.  

And instead of rooting for pure misery next year - I'll root the opposite and hope that the defense refinds its way to top 10, with Goldman coming back and maybe a bit better scheme. And I'll hope the franchise can maybe find a guy who can be a top 10 QB in this league at a reasonable deal - without mortgaging the future.  

Im not rooting for pure misery, but I am also going to be realistic. IMO the Bears are closer to a bottom 10 team than a top 5 team. Anything can happen in any game and sometimes the best teams arent the ones who win. But the point is to put your team in a position to have the best chance the most amount of times. 

I have no problem trying out Wentz, I have a problem with overpaying with draft picks for him. 

As for the Colts and the Bears, they are at completely different places. What makes sense for them, doesnt make sense for the Bears. 

(edit)

I think the best argument against this deal, is that in no world should the Bears be outbidding the Colts. Wentz makes much more sense for them. If they arent willing to go where the Bears are, then the Bears shouldnt be either. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Soxbadger

[Chisoxfn]

53 minutes ago, bmags said:

 

He has previously said it is not two firsts, but will be interesting to see.

Is he specifically stating Bears fans?  I saw someone quoting a deal involving Roquan Smith.   I am just going to sit back and wait to see what actually happens.  But I also have to admit - the rumors yesterday were so one-sided in terms of what the Bears would be giving up.  It was like a total no-brainer.  But no - I wouldn't support 2 1st round picks - unless Bears were getting like 2 2nd rounders back or something like that - than I could probably live with it - but wouldn't love it - knowing Wentz has an injury history and thus chance he gets hurt and the team is truly awful (with no QB).  

[Chisoxfn]

49 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

This Bears staff also heavily worked with Foles and thought he was worthwhile to bring in.  Just saying

It is a fair point - I said at the time they got Foles it was a TERRIBLE move.  I couldn't stand it - cause he is totally mediocre at best.  The only thing I could figure is with COVID they needed something serviceable - so they weren't fully invested in Trubisky - since there were enough doubts there.  

[Soxbadger]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

It is a fair point - I said at the time they got Foles it was a TERRIBLE move.  I couldn't stand it - cause he is totally mediocre at best.  The only thing I could figure is with COVID they needed something serviceable - so they weren't fully invested in Trubisky - since there were enough doubts there.  

Could have had Winston for less money and not trade a draft pick.

But the Bears under Pace always overpay to get their QB.

[bmags]

38 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Is he specifically stating Bears fans?  I saw someone quoting a deal involving Roquan Smith.   I am just going to sit back and wait to see what actually happens.  But I also have to admit - the rumors yesterday were so one-sided in terms of what the Bears would be giving up.  It was like a total no-brainer.  But no - I wouldn't support 2 1st round picks - unless Bears were getting like 2 2nd rounders back or something like that - than I could probably live with it - but wouldn't love it - knowing Wentz has an injury history and thus chance he gets hurt and the team is truly awful (with no QB).  

Honestly I have no clue I have never heard of that guy until kyyle brought him to my attention. But he speaks confidently on twitter, so he's probably telling the truth.

[Dick Allen]

If the Bears pay a huge price for Wentz, it's George McCaskey's fault. 2 lame duck knuckleheads are desperate to save their jobs. Someone with some security would do the right thing. No security, you are throwing a Hail Mary. If it fails, the franchise will suffer from their decisions long after they are gone.

[bmags]

49 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Is he specifically stating Bears fans?  I saw someone quoting a deal involving Roquan Smith.   I am just going to sit back and wait to see what actually happens.  But I also have to admit - the rumors yesterday were so one-sided in terms of what the Bears would be giving up.  It was like a total no-brainer.  But no - I wouldn't support 2 1st round picks - unless Bears were getting like 2 2nd rounders back or something like that - than I could probably live with it - but wouldn't love it - knowing Wentz has an injury history and thus chance he gets hurt and the team is truly awful (with no QB).  

Here are some good Philly writers:

https://www.insidethebirds.com/post/philadelphia-eagles-inside-the-birds-birds-want-more-than-a-first-for-wentz

Quote

Adam Caplan: "As I understand it, the Bears are not interested in giving up two first round picks. They gave up two first round picks [in 2018] to get to get Khalil Mack and then some. They don't want to do that. I kinda of laughed at the poeple who wanted to comapare the [Matthew] Stafford trade. Folks, Matthew Stafford is a proven NFL quarterback who's never been benched. Carson Wentz may be a very talented quarterback, but he was benched. The Bears want the guy, that's based on multiple sources. They want the guy, but I can't see [Bears GM] Ryan Pace caving in here."

Geoff Mosher: My sense from talking to some people is that other teams are involved. The Bears and Colts remain, from what I can tell they're the strongest – as we wrote – and likeliest candidates, but I have heard there have been conversations with teams from both conferences.

 

[StrangeSox]

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If the Bears pay a huge price for Wentz, it's George McCaskey's fault. 2 lame duck knuckleheads are desperate to save their jobs. Someone with some security would do the right thing. No security, you are throwing a Hail Mary. If it fails, the franchise will suffer from their decisions long after they are gone.

Yup. If Bears go into football hell, it's entirely their own fault for letting Pace have yet another crack at finding a QB at the expense of future draft picks + cap space.

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Soxbadger said:

Could have had Winston for less money and not trade a draft pick.

But the Bears under Pace always overpay to get their QB.

I don't have an issue with Winston - but Winston is probably going to get paid more than you think and have more cap consequences for whatever team acquires them - if they want to move on from him in the future (if he doesn't pan out).  I may be wrong - but I don't see Winston signing a 1 year deal..but maybe you can get him with a Glennon type of 2 year deal where you pay him a lot extra.  But that deal has its own issues - given you have Foles contract to still deal with.  

I'd also say - Winston has not shown the same ceiling Wentz has. Wentz has legitimately been amongst the league best over a 3 year window - he missed some games in that span - but from 2017-2019 he ranked much closer to a top 5 QB than a middle of the pack QB.  I can't say the same thing about Winston.  

My point is - you swing and swing at QB time after time.  The Bears have not done it enough - to me swinging for Mitch, if he was your guy was 100% the right move. Just like if you think there is a good chance Wentz is a back end top 10 QB (Which he absolutely was for 3 of the past 4 years) at the contract you would be getting - you do that 100% of the time (unless you are trading a bunch of future picks or extending him and putting a bunch of guarantees onto your books).  The Cutler move was the only other time the Bears have done this - and while it didn't work - again - it was 100% the right move. 

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't have an issue with Winston - but Winston is probably going to get paid more than you think and have more cap consequences for whatever team acquires them - if they want to move on from him in the future (if he doesn't pan out).  I may be wrong - but I don't see Winston signing a 1 year deal..but maybe you can get him with a Glennon type of 2 year deal where you pay him a lot extra.  But that deal has its own issues - given you have Foles contract to still deal with.  

I'd also say - Winston has not shown the same ceiling Wentz has. Wentz has legitimately been amongst the league best over a 3 year window - he missed some games in that span - but from 2017-2019 he ranked much closer to a top 5 QB than a middle of the pack QB.  I can't say the same thing about Winston.  

My point is - you swing and swing at QB time after time.  The Bears have not done it enough - to me swinging for Mitch, if he was your guy was 100% the right move. Just like if you think there is a good chance Wentz is a back end top 10 QB (Which he absolutely was for 3 of the past 4 years) at the contract you would be getting - you do that 100% of the time (unless you are trading a bunch of future picks or extending him and putting a bunch of guarantees onto your books).  The Cutler move was the only other time the Bears have done this - and while it didn't work - again - it was 100% the right move. 

I meant the Bears could have had Winston last year on a 1 year deal and not given up anything for Foles. They would be in a much better position right now, because even if they went after Wentz they wouldnt need to dump Foles contract. 

Its just a pattern under Pace. The Bears pay up for QBs and then have to pay even more for another QB to try and make up for the original mistake.

As of now the Bears have traded:

For Trubisky 2 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick. One of the picks the Bears traded was used for Kamara (tough break for 49ers)

For Foles Bears traded 4th round pick.

If they now trade for Wentz and use a 1st, that would be something like 1 1st, 2 3rds and a 4th.That doesnt even count in how much money they have taken on. 

[Chisoxfn]

Some recent speculation the Bears might be leaking the Wentz stuff - more to put a bit more pressure on other teams.  If you are the Texans or Raiders or Falcons looking to move your QB - you may not want to be the last one to the party. Or maybe you do - because you think there are still enough desperate teams out there...bu I have to imagine Bears are on higher end of "desperate". 

One name someone has mentioned is Bears really high on Derek Carr. I don't know about really high - because Carr is exactly who he is.  A 10-15 overall QB. Not any better, probably not any worse.  His last 2 years have been his best from a QBR perspective.  He also has had good weapons around him past 2 years plus solid protection.  Very durable though and his contract is pretty reasonable for anyone who gets it.  

I don't think he has the peak ability of Wentz - but probably a much better floor than Wentz.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Some recent speculation the Bears might be leaking the Wentz stuff - more to put a bit more pressure on other teams.  If you are the Texans or Raiders or Falcons looking to move your QB - you may not want to be the last one to the party. Or maybe you do - because you think there are still enough desperate teams out there...bu I have to imagine Bears are on higher end of "desperate". 

One name someone has mentioned is Bears really high on Derek Carr. I don't know about really high - because Carr is exactly who he is.  A 10-15 overall QB. Not any better, probably not any worse.  His last 2 years have been his best from a QBR perspective.  He also has had good weapons around him past 2 years plus solid protection.  Very durable though and his contract is pretty reasonable for anyone who gets it.  

I don't think he has the peak ability of Wentz - but probably a much better floor than Wentz.

I just don't see Carr being moved any time soon because I don't see Watson being moved any time soon. Houston at least for now seems to be playing Brinksmanship with Watson, daring him to skip the season. If Houston was going to be aggressive and just get this done, then the other dominos might begin falling around him. 

That might change as one of the deadlines (opening of FA or the Draft) approaches, if Watson is still insisting he will not play for the Texans, they might not want to risk having him actually sit out the whole year with no replacement available. 

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Soxbadger said:

I meant the Bears could have had Winston last year on a 1 year deal and not given up anything for Foles. They would be in a much better position right now, because even if they went after Wentz they wouldnt need to dump Foles contract. 

Its just a pattern under Pace. The Bears pay up for QBs and then have to pay even more for another QB to try and make up for the original mistake.

As of now the Bears have traded:

For Trubisky 2 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick. One of the picks the Bears traded was used for Kamara (tough break for 49ers)

For Foles Bears traded 4th round pick.

If they now trade for Wentz and use a 1st, that would be something like 1 1st, 2 3rds and a 4th.That doesnt even count in how much money they have taken on. 

That is fair - I just don't know what good the revisionist history that makes. Franchise is where it is at this point and the GM and Coach aren't in a position where they are going to blow things up. We can debate whether that was the right or wrong move to make - I was more in the camp of hit the reset - but I can respect the McCaskeys, who have worked with Pace a lot longer and closer than us, thinking they do have the right guy.  

And I 100% agree with what you said above...but I'll make one key distinction. I do not put a price on elite QB pay. So no, I will never blame Pace for going all in on a QB (like he did for Trubisky). I respect the heck out of his conviction and go back to the old adage, you can't steal 2nd and keep your foot on 1st. To get a QB - you need to take swings and he has done so. 

With Glennon - it was a calculated chance.  Not a convicted risk the franchise chance. He took a - maybe there is an x% chance this works out type of deal, if not, we'll walk away at low risk. He did that. With Foles - I kind of think of that move the same way - although in that situation - I really think it had more to do with a solid floor if Mitch stinks - kind of a in case of emergency rip bandaid to ensure we keep our jobs type of maneuver. 

I didn't hate Foles - but always said he is what he was - which was extremely mediocre with no long term sustained success as a full time starter (other than his magical year with Chip Kelly).  I hated giving up a 4th round pick though for Foles - that was terrible. I also didn't love tying up the 21 cap space with Foles. Not that his contract is terrible - it is fair for a back-up / low end starter - and maybe Pace figured worse case scenario Foles was a bridge to another young QB in 21 cap space wasn't an issue. I don't know - but I wouldn't have made the move.

I'd also say - Bears didn't want to wait on QB last year - it turns out if they did, maybe Winston would have been better - but I don't think anyone had Winston sitting around as long as he did, nor did anyone have Cam sitting for as long as he did and signing as cheap as they did. I also don't know that Winston was coming to Chicago - he wanted to go play under Brees/Payton.  Either way - even if they got Winston - when you think about COVID - the ability to get a brand new starter in and teach them the offense while trying to contend is a pretty tough sell.

That isn't to say it isnt' doable - Herbert looked pretty good as a starter as did Burrow and they were rookies, let alone veterans - but Winston would have been sharing reps with Mitch - which would have made that dynamic tougher.  

Bottom line - it is what it is - and the one thing I give Pace a ton of credit for is his willingness to take swings at QB. I don't love the swings he took - but the only one I can really get that pissed over is picking Mitch over the other guys. I don't have any beef with showing conviction for you guys nor do I get that irritated over the Foles/Glennon moves. Those were stop-gap type measures - not swing big measures.  

I'd put Wentz in the bigger swing mold - because you are going to give up a substantial asset for him and get a guy with REAL upside, right there with Mitch & Jay as the 2 who had the most upside of any QB Bears have brought in over past 15+ years (Grossman is the only other guy in the equation).  Why - because for 20 years the franchise literally didn't invest in any QB with upside, like none.  

[Chisoxfn]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I just don't see Carr being moved any time soon because I don't see Watson being moved any time soon. Houston at least for now seems to be playing Brinksmanship with Watson, daring him to skip the season. If Houston was going to be aggressive and just get this done, then the other dominos might begin falling around him. 

That might change as one of the deadlines (opening of FA or the Draft) approaches, if Watson is still insisting he will not play for the Texans, they might not want to risk having him actually sit out the whole year with no replacement available. 

Reality is - the above scenario would be the Bears best chance at getting Watson, but also probably highly unlikely, because there is zero reason for Pace/Nagy to wait around and put their QB hopes on the dream of Watson. That would be foolish - which is where i have to imagine the longer it plays out, the more likely the Niners would be the destination in a late season move - because they can live with the guy they have, but aggressively upgrade if market made sense.  

With Carr - I don't know what the Raiders want to do.  It seems like maybe there is enough momentum they'll make a move, but the same has been said for the past 2 years. I don't think Carr wants to be there, but he isn't going to make a stink and ask out either. 

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Some recent speculation the Bears might be leaking the Wentz stuff - more to put a bit more pressure on other teams.  If you are the Texans or Raiders or Falcons looking to move your QB - you may not want to be the last one to the party. Or maybe you do - because you think there are still enough desperate teams out there...bu I have to imagine Bears are on higher end of "desperate". 

One name someone has mentioned is Bears really high on Derek Carr. I don't know about really high - because Carr is exactly who he is.  A 10-15 overall QB. Not any better, probably not any worse.  His last 2 years have been his best from a QBR perspective.  He also has had good weapons around him past 2 years plus solid protection.  Very durable though and his contract is pretty reasonable for anyone who gets it.  

I don't think he has the peak ability of Wentz - but probably a much better floor than Wentz.

I'd be surprised. Just based off all the philly media, they seem confident this is a typical Roseman tactic. It is not typical for the bears, so I'd lean toward the simplest explanation being the best one.

 

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Reality is - the above scenario would be the Bears best chance at getting Watson, but also probably highly unlikely, because there is zero reason for Pace/Nagy to wait around and put their QB hopes on the dream of Watson. That would be foolish - which is where i have to imagine the longer it plays out, the more likely the Niners would be the destination in a late season move - because they can live with the guy they have, but aggressively upgrade if market made sense.  

With Carr - I don't know what the Raiders want to do.  It seems like maybe there is enough momentum they'll make a move, but the same has been said for the past 2 years. I don't think Carr wants to be there, but he isn't going to make a stink and ask out either. 

If Carr is moved I would just have to assume that Gruden fell in love with a QB in the draft, and think that the compensation of trading carr would allow a move up. Maybe Fields or Lance? Otherwise seems like you'd just do a swap with the Jets if it's for Wilson.

[Soxbadger]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

If Carr is moved I would just have to assume that Gruden fell in love with a QB in the draft, and think that the compensation of trading carr would allow a move up. Maybe Fields or Lance? Otherwise seems like you'd just do a swap with the Jets if it's for Wilson.

I think Gruden wanting to trade up for his own QB is plausible. The only problem is that youd have to wait until draft day to make it happen and then basically do it as a 3 way trade right when the pick Raiders are trading for is up so Gruden makes sure he gets his guy. Otherwise Im not sure that they have the trade capital to get #2, which is what they would need to ensure that they get whoever they want after Lawrence.