NFL 2021 offseason thread

[Chisoxfn]

Best case scenario - Pats decide they can get Jimmy G and therefor stay out of any bidding war and Denver actually isn't in love and is fine sticking with Lock and getting another weapon.  But for ease - lets assume Denver still wants a QB - it still means they have their pick of one of Lance/Fields (assuming Niners take Jones) so maybe they won't bid much to move up.  

Basically means Bears bidding against Redskins and maybe Pats.  It does show why if you are the Bears you preference is to get a bit higher - just to prevent you from acquiring the Panthers pick only to have someone move ahead and get Lions / Falcons pick.

Bottom line - unless Bears grab Falcons pick (and I'd have to think the way things are playing - value of Falcons pick might be a little less today than it was 3 weeks ago) - I don't see them making a trade prior to the draft.  Will be interesting to see how everything plays out as the picks unfold and whether Pace can get that QB.  

[Soxbadger]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Best case scenario - Pats decide they can get Jimmy G and therefor stay out of any bidding war and Denver actually isn't in love and is fine sticking with Lock and getting another weapon.  But for ease - lets assume Denver still wants a QB - it still means they have their pick of one of Lance/Fields (assuming Niners take Jones) so maybe they won't bid much to move up.  

Basically means Bears bidding against Redskins and maybe Pats.  It does show why if you are the Bears you preference is to get a bit higher - just to prevent you from acquiring the Panthers pick only to have someone move ahead and get Lions / Falcons pick.

Bottom line - unless Bears grab Falcons pick (and I'd have to think the way things are playing - value of Falcons pick might be a little less today than it was 3 weeks ago) - I don't see them making a trade prior to the draft.  Will be interesting to see how everything plays out as the picks unfold and whether Pace can get that QB.  

I love your optimism, but after the signing of Dalton it seems impossible to go for another QB. Bears need to trade down, get more picks and take a risk on a QB in later rounds.

[ShoeLessRob]

I have no desire in seeing this front office select another QB.

[Chisoxfn]

5 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I have no desire in seeing this front office select another QB.

If that is the case - it isn’t like next year you are picking a qb - sure one can pop out of nowhere but they won’t be that bad (barring a massive amount of injuries). 
 

So I see no reason not to move up now - if it doesn’t work - new regime cleans house and tanks in a year and you are trying again with another QB in 23. 

At least in that case you get 2 tries in 3 years - maybe one of those is the right guy for once. 

[Chisoxfn]

13 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

I love your optimism, but after the signing of Dalton it seems impossible to go for another QB. Bears need to trade down, get more picks and take a risk on a QB in later rounds.

I go back to - Dalton is a 1 year deal - they have zero long term commitment at qb. How can they not take a swing at qb. I think it makes a Lance pick pretty realistic because you can sit him behind Foles/Dalton and give him time. Same with Fields. 
 

I would have a different view if this draft class was coming next year - ie you had a Fields/Lawrence class awaiting you in 22...but right now that qb class looks meh. It could become great - who knows - but if you don’t take a qb now - feels like you are punting until 23 and that is awful - that basically means 2 more years without having taken a swing at the most important position in sports. 

[bmags]

I’m with @Chisoxfn

it’s a rare draft that fields would be gettable, that’s a swing you take regardless of current decision makers.

[Kyyle23]

We are all gonna be clockwork oranged watching Pace swing for the fences and deal a bunch of draft capital to move up.  Get the eye drops

[Chisoxfn]

57 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

We are all gonna be clockwork oranged watching Pace swing for the fences and deal a bunch of draft capital to move up.  Get the eye drops

The worse case scenario for me is we draft a qb at 20 - cause I assume that means we are reaching for the 6th best qb. 

[The Beast]

The Chicago Tribune had a list of the worst busts by team and listed Kevin White as the worst. I’d have him up there along with Cade McNown over Trubisky. At least Mitch was serviceable, McNown flat out sucked.

I’m also on board with Chisoxfn’s idea. If they miss, the new regime can take another swing next year.

Edited April 24, 2021 by The Beast

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

We are all gonna be clockwork oranged watching Pace swing for the fences and deal a bunch of draft capital to move up.  Get the eye drops

As Chicago fans, we are in this position constantly, no guarantees next regime is any better so all I can do as a fan is hope they make the next best decision. 
 

I don’t really think Paces evaluation here matters as much to me here, Fields especially has enough of the great QBs qualities that you hope you get lucky. Not like nfl as a whole is crushing the QB evaluation beat.

[ShoeLessRob]

If they trade draft capital AGAIN to move up and whiff on whatever QB they select. It’s another year older for our current players.  then a new regime will come in and want to pick “their guy”  with an older team and less draft picks. They are just continuously kicking the ball every year to an inevitable rebuild. 

[bmags]

 

this is interesting, you don’t often hear Denver trading out of top ten

[bmags]

having a first rounder makes realy draws me in. Listening to NFL draft podcasts and such, man what a bunch of shameless front runners.  You'd never think groups like this got Josh Allen so wrong by way they talk about it. And now they shame teams for thinking they could find next Josh Allen when they apparently didn't learn any real lesson from him.

To me, the lesson from Josh Allen they seem to push is now just raw lower-competition level guys can improve, but not the thing they laughed at him about was nobody with accuracy completion level that low would succeed.

So for me, what should be revised is if ANY of the heuristics people had for judging QBs pre-draft are at all helpful. What is the "accuracy"-like criticism that will be applied to a QB that you'll safely fall back on that will cause you to miss? Is it this decision-making stuff with Fields - causing you to look over the incredible package of talent? The lack of attempts for Lance? The talent around Jones?

And by same token, is hitting some of these heuristics that were suppose to matter making you overrate some others? I don't really know, but the success of Mahomes vs. Allen vs. Jackson vs. Watson were all soooooo different in the last several years that if anything it should have caused this groups confidence to crater but it seems like they just act like it was obvious and became more confident.

baseball and basketball media >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> football

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

having a first rounder makes realy draws me in. Listening to NFL draft podcasts and such, man what a bunch of shameless front runners.  You'd never think groups like this got Josh Allen so wrong by way they talk about it. And now they shame teams for thinking they could find next Josh Allen when they apparently didn't learn any real lesson from him.

To me, the lesson from Josh Allen they seem to push is now just raw lower-competition level guys can improve, but not the thing they laughed at him about was nobody with accuracy completion level that low would succeed.

So for me, what should be revised is if ANY of the heuristics people had for judging QBs pre-draft are at all helpful. What is the "accuracy"-like criticism that will be applied to a QB that you'll safely fall back on that will cause you to miss? Is it this decision-making stuff with Fields - causing you to look over the incredible package of talent? The lack of attempts for Lance? The talent around Jones?

And by same token, is hitting some of these heuristics that were suppose to matter making you overrate some others? I don't really know, but the success of Mahomes vs. Allen vs. Jackson vs. Watson were all soooooo different in the last several years that if anything it should have caused this groups confidence to crater but it seems like they just act like it was obvious and became more confident.

baseball and basketball media >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> football

I actualyl think all of those guys (Pat, Allen, Jackson, & Watson) have one thing in common - they are all tremendous athletes who can makes plays when things break down.  I would tell you all of Watson's faults in college - still exist.  He is not an overly decisive reader of defenses - but he overcomes it with his big play ability, his pure grit and leadership capabilities, and his ability to use his feet and other weapons to turn things.

 

Josh Allen - he is probably an outlier - in the sense that his accuracy, which was his major flaw took noticeable steps forward. But he also makes a ton of big plays with his legs and uses those legs to create time and allow for the quick score. He is not the guy who is going to lead a ton of 15 play TD drives, but that is okay - cause he stretches the field and creates plays....just like he did in college and as he has done in the pro's.  The accuracy was huge.

Jackson - he is what he was in college - a spectacular athlete who creates plays and does enough with his arm to keep defenses honest.  Nothing about him has flipped in the pro's or taken crazy steps forward. He didn't become some amazing pocket passer or anything like that.

Mahomes - Hard for me to say - but he is still a gunslinger and it wasn't maybe until this past season where he become more of a reader of the defense.  But he made plays in college and leveraged that crazy arm talent to his advantage and he's doing it at the NFL at prolific clips - but in general - its by extending plays and just throwing darts all over the field.  

Its why when I think of Fields - I kind of get a Watson type of comparison.  People knock him for at times not being elite at reading defenses but ignore the fact that he's an accurate, extremely athletic, accomplishment leader who flat out makes great plays and delivered many times at the highest stage. Yes - he also lost at the highest stage - but you win some / you lose some.

For those reasons - Fields feels like that guy.  Wilson is Mahomes (not saying they will be the same player - but that construct - except Wilson did it against smaller school competition).  Lance is hard to say - kind of like Josh Allen - I don't know if he's as easy of a guy to pinpoint or not.  

In Mitch's case - I think the Bears asked him to be what he wasn't and than injuries compounded that and it backfired and he kind of ended up being a better pocket passer than he was in college...but not good enough to be an above average NFL QB and he became too reserved to use his legs to his advantage...so that strength from college shrunk.  End of the day - they ended up with a worse version of the college player.  Part of it too was mental - imo.  Too many things in his head, etc.  

But one constant - NFL can't get this stuff consistently right - so my view is - take your shot - more recently it hasn't been the top guy who ended up being the stud...but one of the not top guys - but still first rounders - who succeeded (Mahomes / Watson / Allen / Jackson).  

Note: I'm not big on Mayfield - although I shouldn't underrate Murray who I think is a very good NFL QB...although still not sure if his body will hold up to the regular beatings or not.  

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I actualyl think all of those guys (Pat, Allen, Jackson, & Watson) have one thing in common - they are all tremendous athletes who can makes plays when things break down.  I would tell you all of Watson's faults in college - still exist.  He is not an overly decisive reader of defenses - but he overcomes it with his big play ability, his pure grit and leadership capabilities, and his ability to use his feet and other weapons to turn things.

 

Josh Allen - he is probably an outlier - in the sense that his accuracy, which was his major flaw took noticeable steps forward. But he also makes a ton of big plays with his legs and uses those legs to create time and allow for the quick score. He is not the guy who is going to lead a ton of 15 play TD drives, but that is okay - cause he stretches the field and creates plays....just like he did in college and as he has done in the pro's.  The accuracy was huge.

Jackson - he is what he was in college - a spectacular athlete who creates plays and does enough with his arm to keep defenses honest.  Nothing about him has flipped in the pro's or taken crazy steps forward. He didn't become some amazing pocket passer or anything like that.

Mahomes - Hard for me to say - but he is still a gunslinger and it wasn't maybe until this past season where he become more of a reader of the defense.  But he made plays in college and leveraged that crazy arm talent to his advantage and he's doing it at the NFL at prolific clips - but in general - its by extending plays and just throwing darts all over the field.  

Its why when I think of Fields - I kind of get a Watson type of comparison.  People knock him for at times not being elite at reading defenses but ignore the fact that he's an accurate, extremely athletic, accomplishment leader who flat out makes great plays and delivered many times at the highest stage. Yes - he also lost at the highest stage - but you win some / you lose some.

For those reasons - Fields feels like that guy.  Wilson is Mahomes (not saying they will be the same player - but that construct - except Wilson did it against smaller school competition).  Lance is hard to say - kind of like Josh Allen - I don't know if he's as easy of a guy to pinpoint or not.  

In Mitch's case - I think the Bears asked him to be what he wasn't and than injuries compounded that and it backfired and he kind of ended up being a better pocket passer than he was in college...but not good enough to be an above average NFL QB and he became too reserved to use his legs to his advantage...so that strength from college shrunk.  End of the day - they ended up with a worse version of the college player.  Part of it too was mental - imo.  Too many things in his head, etc.  

But one constant - NFL can't get this stuff consistently right - so my view is - take your shot - more recently it hasn't been the top guy who ended up being the stud...but one of the not top guys - but still first rounders - who succeeded (Mahomes / Watson / Allen / Jackson).  

Note: I'm not big on Mayfield - although I shouldn't underrate Murray who I think is a very good NFL QB...although still not sure if his body will hold up to the regular beatings or not.  

I agree on Fields, I am prepping myself to be devastated in a scenario where he falls past falcons, falls past bengals, start dreaming about swapping with panthers only for broncos/pats swapping with dolphins for him.

But while I agree on the traits, I think you would also look at that and say Jones isn't it, but I'm not even sure on that. The skills of lance, fields, lawrence and wilson give them a greater vareity of skills to be valuable in (scrambling, buying time, broken down plays), but we've also seen QBs with those abilities that when they are only delivering as average teams are ready to move on anyway.

Jones has to be exceptional in his passing accuracy and decisionmaking, but we do know that a Matt Ryan is valuable even as a statuesque passer. Drew Brees, Brady are obvious. But it has limited Cousins, it was obvious how it hurt a Foles. 

And much of those guys were not top ten, except Ryan. So I also get the people who wouldn't want to take Jones top ten, as planning on someone being extremely elite in one or two skills as they move up a level feels like you are making a bigger gamble.

There is a possibility that the players playing QB are more athletic now, and more physically capable of mechanical adjustments, footwork adjustments, from the time when maybe qb was being self selected for more tall, right-handed white dudes with strong arms that interviewed well.

So basically we are in the middle of a time where the rules are being re-written for what it means to be a successful QB. That's pretty exciting. And overall I think I would lean more toward a model like Bill Parcells which allows for a QB to get there any number of ways, it just requires that they showed prodigious talent early.

It will miss outliers, like Allen and Brady, but would have also guided you to Watson over Trubisky. Regardless, 

[Kyyle23]

 

[bigruss]

4 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

 

And yet, so many holes to fill.  SMH, what a terrible offseason thus far.

[bmags]

peeps think denvers trading for Bridgewater. Cue draft night, where they trade up for fields and dash my heart.

[bmags]

uhh ok 

 

[CentralChamps21]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

uhh ok 

 

Also LSU is now apparently a position.

[bigruss]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

uhh ok 

 

LOL, if Slater and Fields are both available at 20 then the Bears will most definitely trade the Colts for the 21st pick.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, bigruss said:

LOL, if Slater and Fields are both available at 20 then the Bears will most definitely trade the Colts for the 21st pick.

I mean, regardless of what this dude thinks of fields, if he really thinks nfl teams are going to see fields drop all the way to 32, bypassing totally sensible backup roles in PIT and NO...

whatever. Simms family.

[Dick Allen]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I mean, regardless of what this dude thinks of fields, if he really thinks nfl teams are going to see fields drop all the way to 32, bypassing totally sensible backup roles in PIT and NO...

whatever. Simms family.

Simms has nailed QB picks before. He loves Mond.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

albright's final mock has 49ers choosing Lance and Jones falling all the way to the Bears. 

Seems plausible with his reporting that it seems like broncos have other plans.

[Chisoxfn]

55 minutes ago, bmags said:

albright's final mock has 49ers choosing Lance and Jones falling all the way to the Bears. 

Seems plausible with his reporting that it seems like broncos have other plans.

I can't tell what is what at this point. I can't see how Washington passes on a QB....but really the key is the Broncos / Pats need to address QB via trade (Bridgewater / Jimmy G).  If that is the direction those franchise go - than I legitimately see shot for the Bears...but do Lions/Eagles bite on a QB or someone else we aren't thinking...i don't know.  

Would be truly amazing to see Falson, Pats, Broncos all stand down on QB.  No other teams jump up - which basically leaves Bears / Skins.  I'll be honest - if I am Pace - I still think I'd move up and go secure the go at some point (vs. hoping they fall to 20).