Fangraphs projects Abreu to have the largest dropoff in WAR next season - in the entire MLB!

[ron883]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/which-players-will-have-the-largest-change-in-performance-in-2021.html

These numbers are based on the extrapolation of last year's data over an entire season. 

Very interesting stuff. Hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by ron883

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

35 minutes ago, ron883 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/which-players-will-have-the-largest-change-in-performance-in-2021.html

These numbers are based on the extrapolation of last year's data over an entire season. 

Very interesting stuff. Hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised. 

Not a big surprise. 2020 was just an odd year with 2 1stbasemen winning MVP and over a full season they normally wouldn't expect those guys to keep up the WAR accumulation especially Abreu who also probably had his best fielding stats of his career also. They are just being projected to their mean seasons.

Some of the other guys on the list had career years also. They stand out as outliers that again for a full season aren't  likely to be replicated.

Still Cruz is projected to have a higher WAR than Abreu playing DH at 40 years old. And Timmy is a nightmare for any projection model.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Jose will certainly regress but he’ll be better than what projection models are expecting out of him IMO.  He legit was in much better shape last year and put up a xwOBA in the 93rd percentile.

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Jose will certainly regress but he’ll be better than what projection models are expecting out of him IMO.  He legit was in much better shape last year and put up a xwOBA in the 93rd percentile.

Agreed. He also knew (for the first time in his career) that he didn’t have to carry the load on offense. His approach was noticeably different, swinging at less pitches out of the zone. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Interesting article and analysis, thanks for posting!

Dallas Keuchel also among the pitchers with the highest expected WAR drop off (4.9 vs. 2.5). Really hoping the Sox won't have to eat $20M with this guy in 2023, they really could use the money for extensions or an upgrade. The good news is the Twins also have a few expected regressions (Maeda and Cruz).

On the flippity flip, Nick Madrigal on the list for hitters with the biggest expected WAR increase (0.3 to 2.3). Wish the Sox landed Joc Pederson, also on this list (0.0 to 2.1). Perhaps Jed's trade of Yu Darvish (THE highest expecting pitching drop off from 8.1 to 3.8) was smart in retrospect.

[Leonard Zelig]

I was looking through some box scores from 2020 to see who Jose had batting behind him.  It seemed to be mostly Grandal, but in the 5th game of the season Nicky Delmonico was batting cleanup for the Sox.  That lineup also featured Zach Collins, Danny Mendick, and Leury Garcia.  

Edited February 11, 2021 by Leonard Zelig

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Interesting article and analysis, thanks for posting!

Dallas Keuchel also among the pitchers with the highest expected WAR drop off (4.9 vs. 2.5). Really hoping the Sox won't have to eat $20M with this guy in 2023, they really could use the money for extensions or an upgrade. The good news is the Twins also have a few expected regressions (Maeda and Cruz).

On the flippity flip, Nick Madrigal on the list for hitters with the biggest expected WAR increase (0.3 to 2.3). Wish the Sox landed Joc Pederson, also on this list (0.0 to 2.1). Perhaps Jed's trade of Yu Darvish (THE highest expecting pitching drop off from 8.1 to 3.8) was smart in retrospect.

Keuchel has averaged about 6.0 innings per start as of late, which means he’d only have to make 27 starts for that 4th year to vest.  We’ll have to hope that Cease & Kopech pass him by come 2022 and (along with a Lynn extension) can push him down to the #5 spot in the rotation.  That way we can skip him a handful of times and then hope he misses a start or two due to injury.  He’s an important piece of the rotation this year, but I do worry about 2022 and especially 2023 with him.  It would definitely be nice to have that $20M freed up for other things.

[SpringfieldFan]

A little odd to me. Tim and Jose won the batting and RBI titles respectively in 2019 so it's not like they came out of nowhere in 2020. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

9 hours ago, ron883 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/which-players-will-have-the-largest-change-in-performance-in-2021.html

These numbers are based on the extrapolation of last year's data over an entire season. 

Very interesting stuff. Hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised. 

Right on path with his 2018 and 2019 full seasons actually.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

4 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

A little odd to me. Tim and Jose won the batting and RBI titles respectively in 2019 so it's not like they came out of nowhere in 2020. 

This is based on WAR, in 2019 when Jose won the batting titled his WAR was only 2.0.  So right on with this projection.

[hogan873]

With a 60-game season that didn't start until deep into the summer, it's hard to justify comparing 2020 to the predictions of a full 2021 season.  Many players (like Jose) didn't have the early season slump.  Others never experienced a mid-season slump because of the length of the season.  There was no cold weather to deal with.  And on and on.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see a WAR drop from Jose, and placing his projection in line with 2019 seems logical.  I do think, if 2020 had been a full season, we would have seen better results from Jose.  He obviously couldn't have kept up the pace for HRs and RBIs over 162 games, but he looked totally locked in last year.  I expect a very good 2021 for Jose and a higher WAR than predicted.

[Dominikk85]

I think Jose  also benefited from having no April to mid may or so. He doesn't like the cold weather and usually isn't as good the first 6 or so weeks of the season.

 

Career ops by month

April 836

May 806

June 848

July 830

August 987

September 884

Overall 870.

 

So last year he started with hot weather right away.

Even that he was quite bad the first two weeks (maybe it is not just the weather but also some time to warm up) but in August and September he really raked.

I think the better shape also played a role as playing for a contender motivated him more but some regression certainly will be coming.

I would gladly take 3 war and a 130 wRC+ from him this year.

[MackowiakYakYak]

I was going to say Jose started slow even though it was a warm month. It’s more about getting his feel and eye back than the warmth

[southsider2k5]

I wonder who posted this thread...

[turnin' two]

13 hours ago, ron883 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/which-players-will-have-the-largest-change-in-performance-in-2021.html

These numbers are based on the extrapolation of last year's data over an entire season. 

Very interesting stuff. Hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised. 

You must have been giggling with delight to post this.  

I wonder how accurate they were with his projection last year.

Edited February 11, 2021 by turnin' two

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

You must have been giggling with delight to post this.  

I wonder how accurate they were with his projection last year.

Well he only put up 2.6 fWAR, so any February 2020 projections were fairly accurate on the total number. They may have slightly missed on how exactly Abreu got there...

[asindc]

12 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Agreed. He also knew (for the first time in his career) that he didn’t have to carry the load on offense. His approach was noticeably different, swinging at less pitches out of the zone. 

I agree.  This is the kind of analysis statistical projection models cannot possibly account for.  It is the kind of dynamic assessment that one can only get from actually watching players play.  And no, this is not meant to bash PECOTA or any other stat-based projection.  

[SCCWS]

7 minutes ago, asindc said:

I agree.  This is the kind of analysis statistical projection models cannot possibly account for.  It is the kind of dynamic assessment that one can only get from actually watching players play.  And no, this is not meant to bash PECOTA or any other stat-based projection.  

Another factor is health. Players are more likely to have slumps playing with nagging injuries during a full season than a shortened one. 

[poppysox]

Jose didn't just get lucky with his improved hitting and fielding...he showed up in the best shape of his life.  He has pride in himself.

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Jose didn't just get lucky with his improved hitting and fielding...he showed up in the best shape of his life.  He has pride in himself.

A lot of guys did. Thats what happens when the season starts 4 months later.

[wegner]

I expect Jose to get to that 1.8 WAR based on his games at Wrigley alone this year 

[Dick Allen]

I think part of it is Jose had more protection. I know advanced guys say there is no such thing because it is very hard to quantify, but ask any pitcher or manager or catcher if it matters who is hitting next when a good hitter is up, and they will all give you the same answer. Couple that with the fact Jose doesn't really take his walks, surrounding him with good hitters is only going to help his numbers.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think part of it is Jose had more protection. I know advanced guys say there is no such thing because it is very hard to quantify, but ask any pitcher or manager or catcher if it matters who is hitting next when a good hitter is up, and they will all give you the same answer. Couple that with the fact Jose doesn't really take his walks, surrounding him with good hitters is only going to help his numbers.

I think his leap last year three fold.  #1 this is the best line up he has ever been in.  #2, all of these kids he has been recruiting to the team are now here, and started making him look bad, so he took his off season to the next level and worked his tail off to get into the best shape of his life.  I think he is feeding off of the energy and friendly competition within the organization.  #3 with all of the hitters around him, he doens't have to press anymore.  There are tons of other guys who can beat you, so he doesn't have to expand his zone to try to go out of his comfort zone.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

31 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think part of it is Jose had more protection. I know advanced guys say there is no such thing because it is very hard to quantify, but ask any pitcher or manager or catcher if it matters who is hitting next when a good hitter is up, and they will all give you the same answer. Couple that with the fact Jose doesn't really take his walks, surrounding him with good hitters is only going to help his numbers.

Does it matter?  Sure... Does it matter 5 WAR... No.

[SpringfieldFan]

On 2/11/2021 at 7:22 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

This is based on WAR, in 2019 when Jose won the batting titled his WAR was only 2.0.  So right on with this projection.

Yes, it is a fair point, and the numbers are the numbers and RBI doesn't necessarily translate to WAR. I guess this is the thing for me:

Having watched Jose in 2019 you can't tell me he only gave the Sox a couple more wins by being on the team rather than some other average schlub at first base. Maybe its my fan bias, I don't know, I'm an older guy and maybe I just look at general stats plus intangibles as the measure of worth more than the extremely calculated and granular sabermetrics we have now. I grew up with slash lines, period. Once I started hearing about OPS, WHIPs and whatever else that was it for me, lol.

Edited February 12, 2021 by SpringfieldFan