turnin' two Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wegner said: I expect Jose to get to that 1.8 WAR based on his games at Wrigley alone this year I'm offended for you that more people haven't liked this comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EloyJenkins Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Jose has had a sub 3.0 WAR twice in his career and one of those was 2019 with a 2.0. To think with the protection that he has and even with a drop off after last season that that translates into a 1.8...it's safe to say he beats that easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said: Jose has had a sub 3.0 WAR twice in his career and one of those was 2019 with a 2.0. To think with the protection that he has and even with a drop off after last season that that translates into a 1.8...it's safe to say he beats that easily. Fangraphs vs B-R. He’s been under 3 three times in his career on FG, under 2 twice, including both 2018 and 2019 in FG. No surprise at all FG would project him to do what he did 2 of the last 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EloyJenkins Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Balta1701 said: Fangraphs vs B-R. He’s been under 3 three times in his career on FG, under 2 twice, including both 2018 and 2019 in FG. No surprise at all FG would project him to do what he did 2 of the last 3 years. ah, good catch. Can one of those companies just buy the other and make one official version. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, turnin' two said: I'm offended for you that more people haven't liked this comment. Thanks...Someone appreciated it....that's good enough for me. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, wegner said: Thanks...Someone appreciated it....that's good enough for me. ? You're welcome sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asindc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, Quin said: Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly? Well, if I am telling you anything, it is that Jose is unlikely to play worse in 2021 than he did in 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, Quin said: Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly? It’s strange. It works for Dunning somehow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: It’s strange. It works for Dunning somehow Lynn too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 49 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Lynn too. Donny please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 hours ago, SpringfieldFan said: Yes, it is a fair point, and the numbers are the numbers and RBI doesn't necessarily translate to WAR. I guess this is the thing for me: Having watched Jose in 2019 you can't tell me he only gave the Sox a couple more wins by being on the team rather than some other average schlub at first base. Maybe its my fan bias, I don't know, I'm an older guy and maybe I just look at general stats plus intangibles as the measure of worth more than the extremely calculated and granular sabermetrics we have now. I grew up with slash lines, period. Once I started hearing about OPS, WHIPs and whatever else that was it for me, lol. I listened to a lot of old timers when Hank Aaron passed away and some interviews with him about advice he got as a hitter. They told him ,knock in runs and scoring runs were the most important. You knock them in you're doing great , you score them and you're getting on base. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, elrockinMT said: I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September? Analysis of data separates the haves from the have nots. It’s why teams like Tampa and Oakland continue to outperform their payroll, and teams like the Dodgers target 100 + wins after Andrew Friedman’s hire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitetrain8601 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 hours ago, elrockinMT said: I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September? They know Abreu couldnt hit a beach ball out there while the weather is cold. These number crunchers know their stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said: It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however. Why do you expect Lynn to regress? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said: It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however. They are likely hoping guys like Moncada, Eloy, Cease, etc. continue to progress to help offset it. And I expect them to do so reasonably well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said: It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however. False. Plenty have talked about it. Problem is those people don't talk about the teams upside at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Obviously there are exceptions that projections can't predict. They are using past data with historical aging curves but obviously there are cases like a swing change, added pitch or physical change that projections don't know. However there are also many cases where changes like that regress so most of the time it is better to ignore stuff like that albeit cases like JD martinez or jose bautista do happen occasionally and of course no prediction system can foresee that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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