WTF It's Seriously &^$%^ Cold Outside

[southsider2k5]

To honor Rush Limbaugh's life this weekend was declared your own facts day. Really Midway got an inch and a half, but they said it was 21 inches in honor of the man himself.

[Balta1701]

 

 

[greg775]

On 2/18/2021 at 7:55 AM, southsider2k5 said:

To honor Rush Limbaugh's life this weekend was declared your own facts day. Really Midway got an inch and a half, but they said it was 21 inches in honor of the man himself.

Rest in peace, Mr. Limbaugh.

[Jack Parkman]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[Texsox]

57 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The best news in all this is maybe all this will slow down the population growth that Texas has received from folks fleeing high taxes and no jobs. https://www.statesman.com/news/20181224/us-census-texas-again-leads-in-population-growth all those folks that have fled Illinois https://www.centerforilpolitics.org/articles/2020-census-projection-illinois-one-of-four-states-losing-population may finally go back. 

 

 

[ron883]

11 minutes ago, Texsox said:

The best news in all this is maybe all this will slow down the population growth that Texas has received from folks fleeing high taxes and no jobs. https://www.statesman.com/news/20181224/us-census-texas-again-leads-in-population-growth all those folks that have fled Illinois https://www.centerforilpolitics.org/articles/2020-census-projection-illinois-one-of-four-states-losing-population may finally go back. 

 

 

Joe Rogan is packing up and heading back to LA

[Texsox]

3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Joe Rogan is packing up and heading back to LA

That's a win. Louisiana is nice this time of year. ?

[Balta1701]

My colleague who shared this is now just hoping his gas bill isn’t in the thousands this month, he doesn’t know. It’s both remarkable and completely expected that this is legal.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/deep-freeze-subsides-texans-now-face-electricity-bills-10-000-n1258362

[Texsox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

My colleague who shared this is now just hoping his gas bill isn’t in the thousands this month, he doesn’t know. It’s both remarkable and completely expected that this is legal.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/deep-freeze-subsides-texans-now-face-electricity-bills-10-000-n1258362

Yep. Definitely wouldn't advise anyone to move to Texas. Stay in Illinois. 

Our water supplier just announced they are cutting our bill at whichever is lower our bill to date this month or last month's bill. That won't make national headlines. 

[ron883]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

Yep. Definitely wouldn't advise anyone to move to Texas. Stay in Illinois. 

I get the impression that some people are enjoying that this is happening to Texas. Very strange. 

Edited February 20, 2021 by ron883

[Texsox]

28 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I get the impression that some people are enjoying that this is happening to Texas. Very strange. 

It's a polarizing state. Way too many people moving here from other states to believe everybody hates us. This may slow down the growth even more but somehow I doubt it. 

My family is well prepared so it was an unexpected vacation. Now that we're mostly out of the woods we're thinking it was fun. We read, played some games, had the family over, slept later.  But if your best survival tool is a cell phone it was a nightmare. 

It's a historic weather event.  In the past four days I saw more snow than the past 25 years combined,  and by a wide margin. We usually have one or two hard freezes a winter,  this has been five consecutive nights. Unlike tornadoes or hurricanes this impacted every country in the state at the same time. We're almost six times larger than Illinois. To me it's like Chicago being ready for a hurricane. 

Imagine if Illinois,  Indiana,  Wisconsin,  Minnesota,  and Iowa got together and formed their own energy grid. No one would think twice. Now have that size, but with more energy resources than any other state. It's not as wacky as some want to think. But it's built for Texas not Canada. 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Ironically, as The electric grid was developing in the 1960s, there were major multi day blackouts including a famous one in the northeast that taught everyone else about the ability to have a cascading failure across a large area and the need to take steps to prevent it.

Eventually there’s going to be another one in the western US - when the San Andreas fault breaks near Los Angeles, it will knock out the entire Western US grid all the way to El Paso. It’s a 1 in 150 year event when it happens. Does that mean that there should be no preparation for it? I’ve had colleagues in California working 15 years on trying to harden that infrastructure.

The ability to say “well things could be better but that’s too hard so they won’t be” is a disappointing feature of American life that I’m sadly getting used to. 

[Kyyle23]

10 hours ago, Texsox said:

It's a polarizing state. Way too many people moving here from other states to believe everybody hates us. This may slow down the growth even more but somehow I doubt it. 

My family is well prepared so it was an unexpected vacation. Now that we're mostly out of the woods we're thinking it was fun. We read, played some games, had the family over, slept later.  But if your best survival tool is a cell phone it was a nightmare. 

It's a historic weather event.  In the past four days I saw more snow than the past 25 years combined,  and by a wide margin. We usually have one or two hard freezes a winter,  this has been five consecutive nights. Unlike tornadoes or hurricanes this impacted every country in the state at the same time. We're almost six times larger than Illinois. To me it's like Chicago being ready for a hurricane. 

Imagine if Illinois,  Indiana,  Wisconsin,  Minnesota,  and Iowa got together and formed their own energy grid. No one would think twice. Now have that size, but with more energy resources than any other state. It's not as wacky as some want to think. But it's built for Texas not Canada. 

 

 

I get that it's huge and has all of those resources but the entire point of all of this is Texas repeatedly tells everyone that they don't need them, and they do.  Nobody would blink twice in your above scenario because all of those states could lean on each other in case of a crisis.

and let's not pretend like what's happening in Texas is isolated.  These 100 year events are increasing in frequency.  Texas is going to recover from this and in a few months be staring at a massive hurricane coming up from the gulf.

the states need each other and this just magnifies that need.

[Texsox]

7 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I get that it's huge and has all of those resources but the entire point of all of this is Texas repeatedly tells everyone that they don't need them, and they do.  Nobody would blink twice in your above scenario because all of those states could lean on each other in case of a crisis.

and let's not pretend like what's happening in Texas is isolated.  These 100 year events are increasing in frequency.  Texas is going to recover from this and in a few months be staring at a massive hurricane coming up from the gulf.

the states need each other and this just magnifies that need.

Yep. But it won't happen. I wish more people from up north would understand what a horrible state this is and stop moving here. 

Now water is out. Move here and there is a great chance you will die from something that is perfectly well handled elsewhere. 

The grass isn't greener,  in fact we don't have grass at all. 

I know feel shitty about my state,  my country, and my baseball team. Do you want to fucking attack my family also? 

 

[Kyyle23]

12 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Yep. But it won't happen. I wish more people from up north would understand what a horrible state this is and stop moving here. 

Now water is out. Move here and there is a great chance you will die from something that is perfectly well handled elsewhere. 

The grass isn't greener,  in fact we don't have grass at all. 

I know feel shitty about my state,  my country, and my baseball team. Do you want to fucking attack my family also? 

 

I didn't attack any of those things,  I don't want this to happen to Texas.  I want the people actually responsible to do something about it and stop blaming the new green deal and democrats for underlying infrastructure issues that point to cost cutting and keeping profits.

[StrangeSox]

11 hours ago, Texsox said:

 

Imagine if Illinois,  Indiana,  Wisconsin,  Minnesota,  and Iowa got together and formed their own energy grid. No one would think twice. Now have that size, but with more energy resources than any other state. It's not as wacky as some want to think. But it's built for Texas not Canada. 

 

 

The Eastern Interconnect already exists. Because the electricity crosses state lines, all operators are subject to FERC/NERC regulations to ensure reliability. This includes everything from grid design and operation requirements to cyber and physical security requirements. The larger eastern and western interconnects are already broken down into more regional groups like WEC that are subject to FERC still but form working groups among regional partners that more directly impact each other.

 

Texas went their own way to evade federal regulation. That was the whole point, and something they've long bragged about.

This is the result.

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by StrangeSox

[Texsox]

Perhaps you don't have utility choice where you live. Through most of Texas and 16 other states people have a deregulated choice.  I don't know what fucked up electric plan that woman has. Here in San Antonio my bill from Feb 3rd until today for gas and electric is $87.00. I suspect my total bill for February will be around $120. San Antonio has a city owned monopoly for electric, gas, and water. It's one of the few spots in Texas you are forced into an electric plan. If someone signed up for an open rate plan, that was a really dumb decision. That has nothing to do with the power generation or grid. That is on a private company selling a predatory plan to a person who probably didn't understand the possibilities. Ambit for example sells plans in Illinois and Texas. They are the ones that set the price, not the grid. 

I just noticed Illinois also has deregulated utilities. If someone is paying more than their neighbor for electric is that the grid's fault?  

[Texsox]

Those folks all seem to be customers of the same company,  Griddy. The plan they signed up for is $9.99 per month plus the wholesale price of the energy they consumed. It didn't matter where the electric was generated. Even if Texas was on a much larger grid the company would pass along the highest prices. The plan wasn't built with consumer protections in mind. 

In normal times prices fluctuate with demand. So encouraging people to reduce demand during peak usage is considered by national experts in these things a good thing. Much like Uber's surge pricing. Obviously here in this unique situation, it was very bad for the consumers with Griddy. But from our Governor on down it appears as if some help with arrive. Griddy was even telling customer prior to and during the storm to cancel their plans and go with someone else. But many didn't listen or had no where to go. 

In Illinois you have the choice for example to go with IDT Energy Smart Flex which offers cheap rates but allows unlimited price increases. Roll the dice if you like. If you live in a state that shows flexible rates and you don't want this to happen now would be a good time to talk with your elected leaders. But you probably think it couldn't happen by you. 

PS. It appears that the wholesale price actually dips to the negative at times (night during spring and fall) paying those customers to actually use electricity to keep the grid in balance. One story I read from Houston the unlucky Griddy customer was an energy trader. So it's not just the poor or uneducated that sign up for these plans.  

 

[Texsox]

This is fun. One reason those electric bills are so high is until Governor Abbott blocked the shipments, Texas producers were shipping gas up north for higher profits. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/gas-traders-pleaded-for-cash-as-texas-cold-upended-their-market

[Soxbadger]

25 minutes ago, Texsox said:

This is fun. One reason those electric bills are so high is until Governor Abbott blocked the shipments, Texas producers were shipping gas up north for higher profits. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/gas-traders-pleaded-for-cash-as-texas-cold-upended-their-market

The article doesn't say that it was for higher profits.

They likely were shipping up north because they already had a contract to ship the fuel and didnt want to breach it. Those type of contracts are likely negotiated months in advance.

hasty curbs on Texan exports may jeopardize the perception of how reliable U.S. LNG supplies could be in the future,

So are we for or against govt interfering in private company contracts, I forget where Texas stands on this one.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Soxbadger

[Texsox]

21 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

The article doesn't say that it was for higher profits.

They likely were shipping up north because they already had a contract to ship the fuel and didnt want to breach it. Those type of contracts are likely negotiated months in advance.

 

 

So are we for or against govt interfering in private company contracts, I forget where Texas stands on this one.

The article discussed the rising prices on the spot market. 

I hope Texas is in favor of keeping oil and gas here to meet demand. I'm certain the rest of the world is prepared for Texas to stop the flow. 

Good news both parties are in agreement to cover those bills. 

[Soxbadger]

26 minutes ago, Texsox said:

The article discussed the rising prices on the spot market. 

I hope Texas is in favor of keeping oil and gas here to meet demand. I'm certain the rest of the world is prepared for Texas to stop the flow. 

Good news both parties are in agreement to cover those bills. 

Spot prices in the Texas market were spiking, not North. The suppliers were delivering the already sold gas to the north for prices that were already fixed. They would have made more money breaking their contracts and selling local. But obviously there is a steep cost for breaching a contract.

And Texas should keep their power grid stable and keep ample reserves. It is in the best interest of the US. Federal tax payer dollars are being sent to Texas, and some of that money is being allocated to pay for the electricity bills. No one wins when any state fails to be able to provide basic necessities.

No need to say thanks to the rest of the US for the bailout, but maybe Texas politicians will have a little more of a "do onto others" attitude when another state faces a similar calamity.

Or maybe the Texas politicians will go to Mexico and say this was all the liberals fault.

/shrugs 

 

[Texsox]

Now 72 and sunny. I love this weather lol

Of the changes that hopefully will come out of this I'm hoping voters remember Rafael Cruz heading off to Mexico during the storm. I can't believe he didn't fly private. Arrogance in the highest degree. 

Another change is many of the folks that run the grid aren't residents of Texas. I think that will get moved on. It's low hanging fruit for politicians. 

The latest estimate to bring this up to the level of preparedness for the next storm of the century is about $4 billion. Mostly going to private oil and gas well companies.  If the Dems have their way we'll interconnect either east or west and have the rest of the country pay for it. Cruz would have been helpful if Trump had been reelected, I don't see Biden being in too much of a hurry to help out the senators from Texas so I'm assuming that won't change. 

Of the two links to other grids,  Mexico was able to send a little electricity.  The Eastern grid wasn't able to send any,  they were dealing with their own issues caused by the storm. Some believe the failure of the Texas grid could have caused wider outages across the east coast had there been broader access so I'm assuming folks that run that grid aren't in a hurry to link. 

There is sparse interconnect between the three grids. Even the eastern and western grids don't connect much. The engineering to truly create one grid is fascinating. Just the AC versus DC decision with changing technology is worth a read. There have been recommendations for years to update the 30 and 40 year old connections between the eastern and western grids. 

While Texas electricity is unavailable,  Texas  oil and gas are used to power a lot of the electricity that is generated in the US. 

And this won't go down as the largest blackout in US history. It will probably be third in total people affected and likely v won't jump start a music revolution. 

[StrangeSox]

On 2/21/2021 at 8:37 AM, Texsox said:

Those folks all seem to be customers of the same company,  Griddy. The plan they signed up for is $9.99 per month plus the wholesale price of the energy they consumed. It didn't matter where the electric was generated. Even if Texas was on a much larger grid the company would pass along the highest prices. The plan wasn't built with consumer protections in mind. 

In normal times prices fluctuate with demand. So encouraging people to reduce demand during peak usage is considered by national experts in these things a good thing. Much like Uber's surge pricing. Obviously here in this unique situation, it was very bad for the consumers with Griddy. But from our Governor on down it appears as if some help with arrive. Griddy was even telling customer prior to and during the storm to cancel their plans and go with someone else. But many didn't listen or had no where to go. 

In Illinois you have the choice for example to go with IDT Energy Smart Flex which offers cheap rates but allows unlimited price increases. Roll the dice if you like. If you live in a state that shows flexible rates and you don't want this to happen now would be a good time to talk with your elected leaders. But you probably think it couldn't happen by you. 

PS. It appears that the wholesale price actually dips to the negative at times (night during spring and fall) paying those customers to actually use electricity to keep the grid in balance. One story I read from Houston the unlucky Griddy customer was an energy trader. So it's not just the poor or uneducated that sign up for these plans.  

 

This is all missing the forest for the trees. The astronomical bills are just the salt in the wound, but the main wound is that many millions were without power. This has caused a lot of suffering, dozens of deaths, and a huge amount of damage to physical property.

If Texas hadn't isolated their grid in an effort to shirk federal regulation, FERC's 2011's 'recommendations' could have carried the weight of actual regulatory enforcement and the fines that come with that. Instead, ERCOT more or less ignored all of FERC's "hey maybe you should winterize your stuff so this doesn't happen again!" report, and then it happened again.

[Texsox]

Third worse blackout in US history. 

I love Al Franken and like Ted Cruz more than most people and I hate Ted Cruz.