TLR publicity train

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Ah got it, so because Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Derek Jeter and Mark Texieria help the Yankees be a powerhouse for all these last few years, they are better than the 2021 White Sox. 
 

We won’t mention their rotation is Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and Domingo German. 
 

For someone that LOVES playing traffic cop when people aren’t addressing the issue or not using “logic” you seem to be running away from this one, champ. Weird. 

Yankees Projected wins:

FG: 95
Off-shore Books: 95.5
BP: 97
Mean: 95.83

White Sox Projected Wins:

FG: 87
Off-Shore Books: 91.5
BP: 83
Mean: 87.16

Edited February 25, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[poppysox]

On 2/21/2021 at 6:20 PM, Sarava said:

To go over Hahn's 8 seasons as GM somewhat briefly. After 4 years, it wasn't working and they started the rebuild. Nobody is saying he did good in those first 4 years. The cherry on top of the first 4 failed years was the Shields trade.

But even in those bad first 4 years... 3 very team friendly contract extensions would eventually pave the way for a hopefully successful rebuild.

Since then, he has mostly done a great job. They were tanking hard for 3 years. In the case of those 3 rebuild years, the bad record was what they needed to do. To use bad records in tank years against Hahn is not understanding what the rebuild was about?

And now Rick Hahn sits here with a loaded young team and he is the reigning Sporting News Executive of the Year

I agree with you.  Seems obvious but some people just have to be the glass half full.

[SoCalChiSox]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yankees Projected wins:

FG: 95
Off-shore Books: 95.5
BP: 97
Mean: 95.83

White Sox Projected Wins:

FG: 87
Off-Shore Books: 91.5
BP: 83
Mean: 87.16

Very, very few people will be satisfied with 87 wins, and even 91 wins wouldnt exactly be much to write home about.

[Tony]

25 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

I'm saying that there is a stigma and that stigma absolutely affects things, at least from a psychological standpoint. Granted, Yankees rotation probably looked better last year but IIRC not vastly so and they did what the Yankees always do. That said, they will have a bit stiffer competition in the East and we will have less so we'll have to wait to see how my reasoning stacks up. I still see them as having a more consistent lineup. 

Affects things for who? The fans or players? 

Again, for someone who loves to play the “logic” card and will call out anyone who you don’t agree with...this is a pretty wild hill to die on. The Yankees have maybe 2.5 starters you can count on at this point. Could it work out? Absolutely......but this is the exact same situation the Sox find themselves in, and I’d argue the Sox rotation is in a better place than the Yankees. 
 

I’ve had plenty of issues myself with the White Sox off-season. But your position is basically “Well the Yankees historically are a good team, so that must happen this year.” Is amateur hour. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Very, very few people will be satisfied with 87 wins, and even 91 wins wouldnt exactly be much to write home about.

Our expectations ≠ Expected outcome.

It is more likely the Yankees are better than the Sox in 2021; that is statistically supported. It does not mean it is guaranteed they are better, but logically arguing the White Sox are in worse shape (regarding expected outcomes) entering 2021 is more logical than arguing the Yankees are worse off entering 2021 than the Sox. Our opinions on the matter, without supported justification, are pretty irrelevant.

 

[pcq]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Its up to Eaton to stay there, though. If he isn't an OBP machine anymore and 2019 Moncada shows up, I bet he will be back at the 2 pretty soon.

Iff Eaton is healthy he will be expected to produce against righties. That's why they signed him.

[35thstreetswarm]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

For this year???? Because they both have top of the leagues bullpens.  Both have top of the leagues offenses and both have good front end rotation with question marks on the back end.  Both teams compare pretty easily if you take your blinders off.

 

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Oh I don’t know, the rosters?

By using that same “logic” why is everyone so high on the Padres when they’ve had one winning season in the last decade?!??

Imagine that - using 2021 rosters to predict 2021 results!

This is the point I was making when I mentioned the Padres in the thread above.  For reasons too obvious to require explanation, it's absurd to penalize this year's roster for the performance of different White Sox rosters of the past (many of which were designed to lose during recent tank seasons).  It's especially ridiculous when you're willing to judge teams like the Padres solely by their current roster and ignore their even more established history of futility.

[Vulture]

Excessive confidence in what we believe we know...inability to acknowledge the extent of our ignorance...overconfidence by illusory certainty.

gee that sounds familiar. What is that, your autobiography?

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Excessive confidence in what we believe we know...inability to acknowledge the extent of our ignorance...overconfidence by illusory certainty.

gee that sounds familiar. What is that, your autobiography?

Wouldn't be half as fun a board without it!

[bmags]

I think it's hard to feel too confident in even the models or gut this year. At the very least, I'd expect everyone to have a much wider distribution of outcomes than previous years.

I think going into 2019 any one of us would say "that's a 94-96 win team". This year it's more like "That's an 85+ win team probably".

I believe the dodgers have enough depth to overcome any regular season weirdness. The padres probably do. Braves. So I feel confident that 3 NL teams are 92+ win teams.

In the AL?

For Yankees, their rotation seems a particularly poor set-up for a season that may whip through a large number of arms due to the short innings last year plus number of guys returning from injury. And Clarke Schmidt now down. But the yanks also self-scout really well, and i'd say plus offense and plus bullpen is a better position than incredible rotation + weak offense/bullpen.

I assume I should believe in the Rays because they do it so often but man it's hard to look at that and think it's guaranteed playoffs this year.

Sox seem very confident in their pitching plan, and I'm hoping they are right. Last year it was hard to believe in their bullpen, but those guys were ready, who knows.

Twins may sign odorizzi and mash again, but they also could have bad pitching and their attempt to even out their offense just ends up producing less with an aging cruz.

Maybe Nate Pearson is an ace, and the blue jays just mash and destroy the AL East and go 95+ wins. I could see that. I could also see that rotation still being too raw, the terrible circumstances with location wear them down adn it underperforms this year.

Right now people are expecting there to be less home runs, and pitching to wear down. But what if pitching is fine? What if home runs increase because the mlb is idiots that don't actually know how to control their ball? 

Gonna be a fun year, unless the sox are awful.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Affects things for who? The fans or players? 

Again, for someone who loves to play the “logic” card and will call out anyone who you don’t agree with...this is a pretty wild hill to die on. The Yankees have maybe 2.5 starters you can count on at this point. Could it work out? Absolutely......but this is the exact same situation the Sox find themselves in, and I’d argue the Sox rotation is in a better place than the Yankees. 
 

I’ve had plenty of issues myself with the White Sox off-season. But your position is basically “Well the Yankees historically are a good team, so that must happen this year.” Is amateur hour. 

For both. I know it might sound crazy but it absolutely is a thing. More to my point was the Yankees have been good even in years where they were lacking things, even last year. To be fair, a decent amount of that may be on the org and coaching in general as well. Also, a better offense does compensate some for a little less pitching.

How many starters did they have last year?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Vulture said:

Excessive confidence in what we believe we know...inability to acknowledge the extent of our ignorance...overconfidence by illusory certainty.

gee that sounds familiar. What is that, your autobiography?

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

For both. I know it might sound crazy but it absolutely is a thing. More to my point was the Yankees have been good even in years where they were lacking things, even last year. To be fair, a decent amount of that may be on the org and coaching in general as well. Also, a better offense does compensate some for a little less pitching.

How many starters did they have last year?

Yankees used 9 starters last year. 3 of them, King, Clarke, and Loaisiga, had more outings out of the bullpen than as starters. 

[Tony]

9 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

For both. I know it might sound crazy but it absolutely is a thing. More to my point was the Yankees have been good even in years where they were lacking things, even last year. To be fair, a decent amount of that may be on the org and coaching in general as well. Also, a better offense does compensate some for a little less pitching.

How many starters did they have last year?

3 quality starters with their 4th and 5th slots mostly being combination of trash and question marks. And they lost in the divisional series. 

Which speaks to this entire argument at hand. You’ve mocked anyone who has shown any sort of optimism for this team and if anyone projects over 85 wins for the Sox, they must be insane.....yet when I bring up the Yankees lack of depth on the mound and their projected win total for the year....the argument is “Well it’s the Yankees, so they’ll be good no matter what.” 
 

That’s a Swiss cheese position to take but you won’t back down because god forbid you ever answer for your shit takes. 

[SoCalChiSox]

1 hour ago, Vulture said:

Excessive confidence in what we believe we know...inability to acknowledge the extent of our ignorance...overconfidence by illusory certainty.

gee that sounds familiar. What is that, your autobiography?

Its not an issue of excessive confidence or ignorance its an issue of the FO telling the fan base "ok the rebuild years will be really hard and we won't spend at all but when the window opens we are all in to win a title, anything less will be a disappointment" and now the window is here, so yes people will be disappointed with merely an above average performance compared to the rest of the league. 

Thats not what was promised. I want what was promised. Spoiler: It wasn't 87 wins or merely an above average team.

Its time to produce. 

I dont want to hear about how there is a mismatch between our expectations and expected outcomes based on statistical models. Our expectations are reasonable because that was the social contract that was entered into. That the ownership and/or FO may not have kept up their end of the bargain is hardly good reason to change expectations and in fact this would incentivize reprehensible conduct. 

I'm going to be beyond pissed if it turns out this is an 87 win team. That would be a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

 

[RagahRagah]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

3 quality starters with their 4th and 5th slots mostly being combination of trash and question marks. And they lost in the divisional series. 

Which speaks to this entire argument at hand. You’ve mocked anyone who has shown any sort of optimism for this team and if anyone projects over 85 wins for the Sox, they must be insane.....yet when I bring up the Yankees lack of depth on the mound and their projected win total for the year....the argument is “Well it’s the Yankees, so they’ll be good no matter what.” 
 

That’s a Swiss cheese position to take but you won’t back down because god forbid you ever answer for your shit takes. 

So basically the same.

I never said anything about 85 wins +. I think that is doable. But not necessarily a given. 

I admit I jumped the gun a but. I do admit that. I do still think the Yankees look better. Will he glad if I'm wrong. But I do admit I was a bit too harsh; as I alluded to,  I believe the overall stigma of the Yankees versus the overall stigma of the White Sox (which involves a robust amount of elements) makes it very difficult to be optimistic. So now let's see someone else step up and correct themselves on "shit takes," which there are plenty of and I believe I make very few of.

Edited February 25, 2021 by RagahRagah

[Texsox]

31 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

That would be a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

 

I don't know,  that whole flood the earth thing was pretty bad ass. 

[Kyyle23]

TLR on the score this morning at 8, I recommend the listen

[Tony]

Solid read 

https://theathletic.com/2448040/2021/03/14/tony-la-russa-wants-his-white-sox-to-determine-their-own-fate-it-is-about-the-players/

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

Solid read 

https://theathletic.com/2448040/2021/03/14/tony-la-russa-wants-his-white-sox-to-determine-their-own-fate-it-is-about-the-players/

So far so good.  That said, the first team wide slump will be the first challenge.

[Tony]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

So far so good.  That said, the first team wide slump will be the first challenge.

His entry into the team and getting back in the dugout after all these years away was going to be one of the biggest hurdles. It’s only Spring, but the comments from the players are very encouraging and if they are “good” with Tony....I don’t a ton of us were really ever concerned with the X’s and O’s. 

Still a ways to go, but if this team does what it’s supposed to, and Katz comes even remotely close to the expectations that have been placed on him....this all could work pretty well.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

His entry into the team and getting back in the dugout after all these years away was going to be one of the biggest hurdles. It’s only Spring, but the comments from the players are very encouraging and if they are “good” with Tony....I don’t a ton of us were really ever concerned with the X’s and O’s. 

Still a ways to go, but if this team does what it’s supposed to, and Katz comes even remotely close to the expectations that have been placed on him....this all could work pretty well.

Did you listen to the Fangraphs season preview pod with Feagan?  Feagan isn't that great on the air but he did note how within the industry most considered the Sox the most "traditional" team, and it wasn't complimentary.  That they are doing the move to Katz and continuing to revamp the scouting and development under Getz while also hiring TLR is quite the operation.  We'll see if it works out.  I'm cautiously optimistic after hearing how TLR is running things early.

[Vulture]

On 2/25/2021 at 1:35 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yankees Projected wins:

FG: 95
Off-shore Books: 95.5
BP: 97
Mean: 95.83

White Sox Projected Wins:

FG: 87
Off-Shore Books: 91.5
BP: 83
Mean: 87.16

Edited March 15, 2021 by Vulture