Cubs 2021

[ThirdGen]

On 7/19/2021 at 3:15 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

They have an 100,000 + season ticket waiting list. 

The 100,000 season ticket list is 100% bullshit.  You don't need to put any money down, just send in an email address.  There is a thread on a Cubs board where people compare their places on the waiting list.  One guy dropped from 26,372 to 1,975 in one season.   Another dropped from 31,000 to 4,800 over two seasons.  Its just a list of email addresses the Cubs have collected over the years, most of which don't respond when offered.  If there were really 100,000 looking for season tickets, assuming everyone bought just two seats, that's 16,200,000 tickets in un-met demand every season.  Not possible.  And if there was that much demand, every seat for every game would be sold out.

[Dominikk85]

I can understand that hoyer had to trade those guys because the pitching was getting old, the farm was bad and Ricketts was crying poor but I think it was pretty bad style to throw those 3 heros who brought them a WS under the bus by claiming they were offered great deals and didn't want to stay. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/cubs-jed-hoyer-extensions-baez-rizzo-bryant.html

 

Nobody believes that Ricketts was offering all 3 a good deal, so just own that you didn't have the money to pay them fair value and don't throw them under the bus. That doesn't send a great message to future free agents wanting to sign there. 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Dominikk85

[NWINFan]

This type of rebuild or retool is getting old. I realize teams sometimes have to trade off expensive veterans. But as they are winning, they don't seem take care of their farm system. So, they have to raid young prospects from other teams, and tank it for at least one season, maybe more. A rebuild is justified with winning. But fans having to watch meaningless games is not fun. 

[Tony]

2 hours ago, NWINFan said:

This type of rebuild or retool is getting old. I realize teams sometimes have to trade off expensive veterans. But as they are winning, they don't seem take care of their farm system. So, they have to raid young prospects from other teams, and tank it for at least one season, maybe more. A rebuild is justified with winning. But fans having to watch meaningless games is not fun. 

This is what really sunk the Cubs. During Theo's run, he didn't draft and develop 1 impact ML pitcher. That's finally starting to change a bit in 2021, but their system just didn't develop guys at all and left them with an empty cupboard as they tried to use the prospects they had to acquire ML talent to supplement the roster. 

[Harry Chappas]

20 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I can understand that hoyer had to trade those guys because the pitching was getting old, the farm was bad and Ricketts was crying poor but I think it was pretty bad style to throw those 3 heros who brought them a WS under the bus by claiming they were offered great deals and didn't want to stay. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/cubs-jed-hoyer-extensions-baez-rizzo-bryant.html

 

Nobody believes that Ricketts was offering all 3 a good deal, so just own that you didn't have the money to pay them fair value and don't throw them under the bus. That doesn't send a great message to future free agents wanting to sign there. 

 

I wonder how the service time game with Bryant played into this.  All these guys had to do is look across town and see why some may have been more willing to sign a home town discount.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Harry Chappas said:

I wonder how the service time game with Bryant played into this.  All these guys had to do is look across town and see why some may have been more willing to sign a home town discount.

The White Sox were totally willing to keep Eloy and Robert down for service time reasons, they used it as a negotiating tool. Moncada was kept down until after the Super 2 deadline. Kopech, Giolito, Lopez - all of them were brought up in the second half of various seasons. The White Sox used it in a different way, but they absolutely used the service time schedule as a tool.

Worth remembering - Kris Bryant's agent is one Scott Boras, so he wasn't extending anything without a top of the market contract anyway.

[Tony]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox were totally willing to keep Eloy and Robert down for service time reasons, they used it as a negotiating tool. Moncada was kept down until after the Super 2 deadline. Kopech, Giolito, Lopez - all of them were brought up in the second half of various seasons. The White Sox used it in a different way, but they absolutely used the service time schedule as a tool.

Worth remembering - Kris Bryant's agent is one Scott Boras, so he wasn't extending anything without a top of the market contract anyway.

Service time played a role in Bryant, Eloy and Robert....that's true. However, one side of town handed out two guaranteed contracts to players that had never had a swing in a MLB game, and the other kept Bryant in the minors for 12 extra days after hitting over .400 in Spring Training that year in favor of Mike Olt....and the day after Bryant past that service time threshold, he was called up. 

Offering Eloy 43 million dollars guaranteed over six years has a slightly different optics than keeping the 2nd overall pick down in the minors 12 extra days for one reason and one reason alone. Not saying the Sox wouldn't have done that with Eloy or Robert...but they didn't let it get to that point. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Service time played a role in Bryant, Eloy and Robert....that's true. However, one side of town handed out two guaranteed contracts to players that had never had a swing in a MLB game, and the other kept Bryant in the minors for 12 extra days after hitting over .400 in Spring Training that year in favor of Mike Olt....and the day after Bryant past that service time threshold, he was called up. 

Offering Eloy 43 million dollars guaranteed over six years has a slightly different optics than keeping the 2nd overall pick down in the minors 12 extra days for one reason and one reason alone. Not saying the Sox wouldn't have done that with Eloy or Robert...but they didn't let it get to that point. 

Ok, so you want a Boras client called up less than 10 days after the arbitration deadline who was held down for Hector Noesi without it affecting his teammates? Carlos Rodon.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/04/20/chicago-white-sox-carlos-rodon-call

(To be fair, he should have spent more time in the minors than that, but him being a solid starter after being held down to get past the deadline and then immediately called up was part of Ricky's grand 2015 plan).

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so you want a Boras client called up less than 10 days after the arbitration deadline who was held down for Hector Noesi without it affecting his teammates? Carlos Rodon.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/04/20/chicago-white-sox-carlos-rodon-call

(To be fair, he should have spent more time in the minors than that, but him being a solid starter after being held down to get past the deadline and then immediately called up was part of Ricky's grand 2015 plan).

Weird, none of that seemed to matter to Rodon: 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/white-sox-to-sign-carlos-rodon.html

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Weird, none of that seemed to matter to Rodon: 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/white-sox-to-sign-carlos-rodon.html

So you agree with my point, a team playing the service time game is a minor factor in whether or not players sign with them. Thank you for your strong endorsement of my point.

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

So you agree with my point, a team playing the service time game is a minor factor in whether or not players sign with them. Thank you for your strong endorsement of my point.

No, but it's also not surprising you missed the point entirely. 

It's kind of your shtick. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Tony said:

No, but it's also not surprising you missed the point entirely. 

It's kind of your shtick. 

Literally look up at the post that started this conversation. It specifically says "I wonder how much them playing the service time game with Bryant played into this". That was specifically the topic I was addressing.

[Tony]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Literally look up at the post that started this conversation. It specifically says "I wonder how much them playing the service time game with Bryant played into this". That was specifically the topic I was addressing.

I understand that, clearly you don't. 

The question has always been about Bryant being salty with the Cubs about the service time manipulation, and if that would play a role with him re-signing with the organization and the Cubs sort of creating a "negative" environment with the blatant send down of Bryant to AAA for those 12 days. That didn't happen with the White Sox, as I stated above. The two things are very different.  

[Balta1701]

Just now, Tony said:

I understand that, clearly you don't. 

The question has always been about Bryant being salty with the Cubs about the service time manipulation, and if that would play a role with him re-signing with the organization and the Cubs sort of creating a "negative" environment with the blatant send down of Bryant to AAA for those 12 days. That didn't happen with the White Sox, as I stated above. The two things are very different.  

And Carlos Rodon was held down in exactly that same way, almost to the day, with the same agent, without it creating a "negative environment". 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Carlos Rodon was held down in exactly that same way, almost to the day, with the same agent, without it creating a "negative environment". 

Well, except Carlos Rodon also never signed an extension, and also tested free agency when he got there, but only came back because he was injured and no one wanted to offer him a real deal.

[Tony]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Carlos Rodon was held down in exactly that same way, almost to the day, with the same agent, without it creating a "negative environment". 

I never said I believed that it impacted Bryant. I don't really know. Neither do you. Only he knows that. 

My entire point was what the Cubs did with Bryant, sending him down for AAA for those 12 days, and the contracts given to Eloy and Robert are totally different things and optics. If you can't see the difference, I can't help you. 

[Harry Chappas]

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Literally look up at the post that started this conversation. It specifically says "I wonder how much them playing the service time game with Bryant played into this". That was specifically the topic I was addressing.

It was a musing nothing more.  The Rizzo v Jed stuff got me wondering if it put off that core that is all.  Not sure there is an answer or debate to be had,

[raBBit]

On 8/3/2021 at 3:43 PM, Dominikk85 said:

I can understand that hoyer had to trade those guys because the pitching was getting old, the farm was bad and Ricketts was crying poor but I think it was pretty bad style to throw those 3 heros who brought them a WS under the bus by claiming they were offered great deals and didn't want to stay. 

 https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/cubs-jed-hoyer-extensions-baez-rizzo-bryant.html

Nobody believes that Ricketts was offering all 3 a good deal, so just own that you didn't have the money to pay them fair value and don't throw them under the bus. That doesn't send a great message to future free agents wanting to sign there. 

Per Buster Olney, the Cubs offered Baez an extension in the range of $180M prior to 2020.  Do you think he gets half that this offseason?

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/report-javy-baez-turned-down-cubs-180-million-extension-offer/2489584/#:~:text=The Cubs were ready to,prior to the 2020 season.

Per Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs offered Rizzo an extension in the amount of $70 prior to 2021. Do you think he beats that this offseason?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/anthony-rizzo-contract-extension-update-cubs-president-jed-hoyer-very-confident-a-new-deal-will-be-reached/

Per David Kaplan, Cubs offered Bryant around $200m in 2018. Obviously this one is more complicated since he still had control and has since seen his production decrease, but do you think Bryant would have been better off financially accepting that deal? Absolutely.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/10/11/chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-rejects-contract-offer

So for the bolded, you're wrong. Ricketts absolutely has the money. The Cubs were more affected by COVID from a financial standpoint than any team in baseball. They're likely rebounded now and Ricketts will likely return to his annual top 5 payroll by the end of the decade. 

For the italicized, this isn't true. Free agents don't care. Set the market and they will come. Especially for a team like the Cubs in a city like Chicago. If you think a 30-year-old with one big crack at free agency is going to spur the Cubs because they manipulated Bryant's service time in 2015 or because they weren't able to convince a flawed player in Baez to take a deal he isn't/wasn't worth or weren't willing to give an aging 1B more than they thought he was worth you're crazy. 

22 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox were totally willing to keep Eloy and Robert down for service time reasons, they used it as a negotiating tool. Moncada was kept down until after the Super 2 deadline. Kopech, Giolito, Lopez - all of them were brought up in the second half of various seasons. The White Sox used it in a different way, but they absolutely used the service time schedule as a tool.

 Worth remembering - Kris Bryant's agent is one Scott Boras, so he wasn't extending anything without a top of the market contract anyway.

Both Eloy & Robert had less than 500 PAs above A Ball and were 22 when they made their major league debuts on Opening Day 2019/2020. They both set records for getting the largest contracts before playing an MLB game. Their next generations would have been set for life if they were busts that hit .100 in the MLB career. 

Moncada was a 3B. He was kept down until Todd Frazier was traded and the position Moncada played opened up. If they were simply trying to wait out the Super 2 Deadline, they could have called him up a over a month or conservatively, at least 2-3 weeks earlier. The Yankees Frazier/Robinson trade went to the media. The Sox game ended. Rick Hahn called Moncada's agent and said he was getting called up. Hahn had a presser talking about the trade and call up of Moncada together. You have no evidence of what you're saying here and it is not true. 

Kopech had ERA's over 5 in AAA during the months of May and June. He had a WHIP over 1.5 during those two months. In the month of July 2018, Kopech stopped walking people. In the month of August, he absolutely dominated leading to his call up. To imply it had anything to do with service time is baseless. Sox have never been concerned with Super 2. 

Giolito was awful for most of the year in AAA in 2017 when he was called up. If his name wasn't Lucas Gioltio, he would have never been called up at all given his production.

21 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

And Carlos Rodon was held down in exactly that same way, almost to the day, with the same agent, without it creating a "negative environment". 

The fact that you're trying to create parallels with Carlos Rodon - a player who made it to the MLB 10 months after being drafted and after having less than 50 innings in the Minor Leagues - to Kris Bryant is insane.

In 2014, Kris Bryant had a ~1.1 OPS in ~140 games in AA/AAA for the Cubs. He won minor league player of the year after hitting 43 homers and 110 RBIs. The Cubs sent him - the #1 prospect in baseball - down and played Mike Olt (who had a .160 batting average in over 250 PAs the year before) at 3B. Kris Bryant filed a grievance with the union. Scott Boras has championed Bryant's circumstance as the case to change this quirk in the CBA. Kris Bryant stands alone as the most egregious case of service time manipulation. I have no idea what you're trying to do villainizing the Sox akin to the Bryant scenario. 

What is hilarious though, is the only clear case of the Sox manipulating service time was Nick Madrigal and he somehow didn't get a mention as you listed players who either had record breaking deals or didn't face service time manipulation.

You make the case that the Sox are bad for using service time as leverage as they signed Eloy/Robert to long term deals, but why didn't you also mention Vaughn? They used the same leverage with Vaughn as they tried to extend him this spring. They didn't get a deal and Vaughn made the opening day roster. Pretty big hole in your argument. Vaughn never played in AA. He never even dominated A+ ball. Sox could have sent him down for 2 weeks in April (LaRussa played him 40% of the time at that point anyway) and kept him for an additional year and there would have been no case of manipulation whatsoever. They didn't do that. They called him up despite what their best interest was from a financial/control standpoint because they thought he was one of the best 26 players to help them win from day 1. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31967120/take-the-sportsbook-betting-site-next-wrigley-field-approved
 

On a slightly less angry note, Cubs continue to be more concerned with generating revenues around or outside the ballpark, this time a team-owned sportsbook.

[35thstreetswarm]

On 8/5/2021 at 11:00 AM, raBBit said:

Per Buster Olney, the Cubs offered Baez an extension in the range of $180M prior to 2020.  Do you think he gets half that this offseason?

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/report-javy-baez-turned-down-cubs-180-million-extension-offer/2489584/#:~:text=The Cubs were ready to,prior to the 2020 season.

Per Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs offered Rizzo an extension in the amount of $70 prior to 2021. Do you think he beats that this offseason?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/anthony-rizzo-contract-extension-update-cubs-president-jed-hoyer-very-confident-a-new-deal-will-be-reached/

Per David Kaplan, Cubs offered Bryant around $200m in 2018. Obviously this one is more complicated since he still had control and has since seen his production decrease, but do you think Bryant would have been better off financially accepting that deal? Absolutely.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/10/11/chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-rejects-contract-offer

So for the bolded, you're wrong. Ricketts absolutely has the money. The Cubs were more affected by COVID from a financial standpoint than any team in baseball. They're likely rebounded now and Ricketts will likely return to his annual top 5 payroll by the end of the decade. 

For the italicized, this isn't true. Free agents don't care. Set the market and they will come. Especially for a team like the Cubs in a city like Chicago. If you think a 30-year-old with one big crack at free agency is going to spur the Cubs because they manipulated Bryant's service time in 2015 or because they weren't able to convince a flawed player in Baez to take a deal he isn't/wasn't worth or weren't willing to give an aging 1B more than they thought he was worth you're crazy. 

Both Eloy & Robert had less than 500 PAs above A Ball and were 22 when they made their major league debuts on Opening Day 2019/2020. They both set records for getting the largest contracts before playing an MLB game. Their next generations would have been set for life if they were busts that hit .100 in the MLB career. 

Moncada was a 3B. He was kept down until Todd Frazier was traded and the position Moncada played opened up. If they were simply trying to wait out the Super 2 Deadline, they could have called him up a over a month or conservatively, at least 2-3 weeks earlier. The Yankees Frazier/Robinson trade went to the media. The Sox game ended. Rick Hahn called Moncada's agent and said he was getting called up. Hahn had a presser talking about the trade and call up of Moncada together. You have no evidence of what you're saying here and it is not true. 

Kopech had ERA's over 5 in AAA during the months of May and June. He had a WHIP over 1.5 during those two months. In the month of July 2018, Kopech stopped walking people. In the month of August, he absolutely dominated leading to his call up. To imply it had anything to do with service time is baseless. Sox have never been concerned with Super 2. 

Giolito was awful for most of the year in AAA in 2017 when he was called up. If his name wasn't Lucas Gioltio, he would have never been called up at all given his production.

The fact that you're trying to create parallels with Carlos Rodon - a player who made it to the MLB 10 months after being drafted and after having less than 50 innings in the Minor Leagues - to Kris Bryant is insane.

In 2014, Kris Bryant had a ~1.1 OPS in ~140 games in AA/AAA for the Cubs. He won minor league player of the year after hitting 43 homers and 110 RBIs. The Cubs sent him - the #1 prospect in baseball - down and played Mike Olt (who had a .160 batting average in over 250 PAs the year before) at 3B. Kris Bryant filed a grievance with the union. Scott Boras has championed Bryant's circumstance as the case to change this quirk in the CBA. Kris Bryant stands alone as the most egregious case of service time manipulation. I have no idea what you're trying to do villainizing the Sox akin to the Bryant scenario. 

What is hilarious though, is the only clear case of the Sox manipulating service time was Nick Madrigal and he somehow didn't get a mention as you listed players who either had record breaking deals or didn't face service time manipulation.

You make the case that the Sox are bad for using service time as leverage as they signed Eloy/Robert to long term deals, but why didn't you also mention Vaughn? They used the same leverage with Vaughn as they tried to extend him this spring. They didn't get a deal and Vaughn made the opening day roster. Pretty big hole in your argument. Vaughn never played in AA. He never even dominated A+ ball. Sox could have sent him down for 2 weeks in April (LaRussa played him 40% of the time at that point anyway) and kept him for an additional year and there would have been no case of manipulation whatsoever. They didn't do that. They called him up despite what their best interest was from a financial/control standpoint because they thought he was one of the best 26 players to help them win from day 1. 

[NWINFan]

The Cubs lost another embarrassing game to the Brewers 10-0 last night. 10 so-called Cub hitters were struck out in a row. Their losing streak now stands at seven.

Cub Fan and chronicler Al Yellon is embarrassed. He understands the logic behind the Cub sell-out, but still thinks the Cub FO has to do something to shore up this team. Plainly said, he wrote that this current squad is one of the worst of all Cub teams, and that's saying a lot.

This is the big down-side to tanking. Fans are expected to be loyal, bite the bullet, and pay major league prices to watch a minor league level team. Yes, rebuilds and tank jobs have worked, but one can only guess how long the losing will last. And do these cycles have happen over and over again?

I'll take the wins any day, but the Sox sweeping the Cubs was no big deal. They were kicking someone when they are down. Nothing special about it, except you want the wins because they count in the standings.

Tanking is not good for baseball. Tanking teams don't provide any real competition. There has to be a better way than this. Tanking every five years or so doesn't cut it.

[CentralChamps21]

This is going to kill the secondary market for Cubs tickets.

[raBBit]

2 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

This is going to kill the secondary market for Cubs tickets.

Depends. Yesterday the good seats were wide open and the bleachers were backed. The party is still on.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, NWINFan said:

The Cubs lost another embarrassing game to the Brewers 10-0 last night. 10 so-called Cub hitters were struck out in a row. Their losing streak now stands at seven.

Cub Fan and chronicler Al Yellon is embarrassed. He understands the logic behind the Cub sell-out, but still thinks the Cub FO has to do something to shore up this team. Plainly said, he wrote that this current squad is one of the worst of all Cub teams, and that's saying a lot.

This is the big down-side to tanking. Fans are expected to be loyal, bite the bullet, and pay major league prices to watch a minor league level team. Yes, rebuilds and tank jobs have worked, but one can only guess how long the losing will last. And do these cycles have happen over and over again?

I'll take the wins any day, but the Sox sweeping the Cubs was no big deal. They were kicking someone when they are down. Nothing special about it, except you want the wins because they count in the standings.

Tanking is not good for baseball. Tanking teams don't provide any real competition. There has to be a better way than this. Tanking every five years or so doesn't cut it.

Fans have been taking counter-measures for decades, they increasingly stop going / stop watching. "If you ruin it, he will leave."

Television Ratings:

• All Star Game: 1981 20.1 1991 17.4 2001 11.0 2011 6.9 2021 4.5
• World Series: 1980 32.8 1990 20.8 2000 12.4 2010  8.4 2020 5.2

MLB Baseball Attendance per game: 2009 30,213 2019 28,199

Minor League Attendance also crashing (8/10/21 article)

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/68881/moonshot-minor-league-attendance-is-crashing/

 

Quote

 Early attendance figures from the 2021 season suggest a significant decline in fans at the ballpark, despite a season that starts later and fewer coronavirus-related restrictions on attendance. The dropoff in minor league baseball ticket sales is especially problematic for a game that was already in precarious financial circumstances.

Quote

The minors are hardly alone in seeing a decline. Attendance is down in baseball leagues worldwide, including a catastrophic-sounding 80 percent decline in the Korean Baseball Organization. (However, this dropoff happened in a country that takes coronavirus much more seriously than the United States.) More pertinent is that tickets dropped off in MiLB’s big brother, the majors. So far major league attendance is down 40 percent on a per-game basis relative to 2019.

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

The Cubs have given up double digits yet again. Oh yeah and its only the 2nd inning.