Cubs 2021

[South Side Hit Men]

16 hours ago, Marqhead said:

I wholeheartedly agree. They could have made those guys fair offers and signed them. They could have spent money, retooled, and become a force for many years but instead decided to cry poor and now they're gonna be bad for a looong time. They got their title, good for them, but I wont cry any tears that its a Sox town again.

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't assume that they are planning to tank beyond the final two months of this season. They have shed all but one bad contract ($44M left over 2 years for Jason Heyward), and Jed stated they aren't looking at a multi-year rebuilding process.

They can be aggressive in the FA market this offseason with just over $50M committed. If the owners degrade/cheapen the sport even further than today with a 16 team playoff they have a chance of returning to the playoffs. It will likely take at least a few years to be a serious World Series contender, IMO, assuming they can draft / develop solid players and payroll returns to the $160M-$200M range. I see them trying to go after Rizzo and Chaffin, and then players they never had before this offseason to attempt to return to .500 ish baseball.

Players under 2022 contract or control (Arb/Pre-Arb) + projected 2022 fWAR (ZIPS):

• 2.4 Wilson Contreras (Arb 3)
• 2.4 Ian Happ (Arb 2)
• 1.9 Nick Madrigal (ML Min)
• 1.2 Jason Heyward ($22.0M)
• 1.1 David Bote ($2.5M)
• 0.9 Nico Hoerner (ML Min)
• 0.2 Rafael Ortega (Arb 1)

• 2.1 Kyle Hendricks ($14.0M)
• 0.6 Alec Mills (ML Min)
• 0.5 Adbert Alzolay (ML Min)

• 0.7 Codi Heuer (ML Min)
• 0.4 Rowan Wick (ML Min)
• 0.2 Dillon Maples (ML Min)

13 Players (7 Hitters $36M + 6 Pitchers $17M = $53M + 13 FAs/Callups TBD)

[Marqhead]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't assume that they are planning to tank beyond the final two months of this season. They have shed all but one bad contract ($44M left over 2 years for Jason Heyward), and Jed stated they aren't looking at a multi-year rebuilding process.

They can be aggressive in the FA market this offseason with just over $50M committed. If the owners degrade/cheapen the sport even further than today with a 16 team playoff they have a chance of returning to the playoffs. It will likely take at least a few years to be a serious World Series contender, IMO, assuming they can draft / develop solid players and payroll returns to the $160M-$200M range. I see them trying to go after Rizzo and Chaffin, and then players they never had before this offseason to attempt to return to .500 ish baseball.

Players under 2022 contract or control (Arb/Pre-Arb) + projected 2022 fWAR (ZIPS):

• 2.4 Wilson Contreras (Arb 3)
• 2.4 Ian Happ (Arb 2)
• 1.9 Nick Madrigal (ML Min)
• 1.2 Jason Heyward ($22.0M)
• 1.1 David Bote ($2.5M)
• 0.9 Nico Hoerner (ML Min)
• 0.2 Rafael Ortega (Arb 1)

• 2.1 Kyle Hendricks ($14.0M)
• 0.6 Alec Mills (ML Min)
• 0.5 Adbert Alzolay (ML Min)

• 0.7 Codi Heuer (ML Min)
• 0.4 Rowan Wick (ML Min)
• 0.2 Dillon Maples (ML Min)

13 Players (7 Hitters $36M + 6 Pitchers $17M = $53M + 13 FAs/Callups TBD)

The payroll flexibility they will have over the next two years will he astounding. But they have a mediocre farm system and no big time prospects I know of that will he ready to make contributions immediately. They can try and build a roster with FA veterans, but without a steady stream of young talent coming in it’s a story we’ve seen before. I’m not nearly as bullish on the Cubs as most who think they’ll be back in contention in 2023. 
 

Time will tell of course. I think they’re in for a longer rebuild them Jed wants to admit. 

[35thstreetswarm]

1 hour ago, Marqhead said:

The payroll flexibility they will have over the next two years will he astounding. But they have a mediocre farm system and no big time prospects I know of that will he ready to make contributions immediately. They can try and build a roster with FA veterans, but without a steady stream of young talent coming in it’s a story we’ve seen before. I’m not nearly as bullish on the Cubs as most who think they’ll be back in contention in 2023. 
 

Time will tell of course. I think they’re in for a longer rebuild them Jed wants to admit. 

I don’t think “most” feel that way—fanboys, sure, but it takes a lot of imagination to envision the Cubs building a contender out of this trash heap in basically one season. 

[35thstreetswarm]

20 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

No, no, it is definitely funny.  In fact the best part is that it is entirely self-inflicted.  They tried to go cheap with the faces of the franchise who broke the curse, and happily dealt them off to save a few bucks.  Now they are combination of awful and unmotivated as a team.  It is wonderful.

I agree—it’s a laugh riot.  Hard to remember that there were Cub fans still crowing about *this season* just a few weeks ago.  

[wegner]

8 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I agree—it’s a laugh riot.  Hard to remember that there were Cub fans still crowing about *this season* just a few weeks ago.  

I still remember the guy across the aisle from me at the Sunday night game at Wrigley...."f%$#ing Sox Fans"....he and his buddies left in the 4th inning to go to the bar.

[Bob Sacamano]

One of my buddies actually believes they are a Castellanos and Correa signings away from being good next year. Can't make this shit up. Claims Hoerner is the shortstop next year (they would play Correa at 3B I guess in his mind) even though I've seen Hoerner enough to know he does not have the arm. He's a 2B or OF.

Edit: you also know the Cubs are trash and Sox are good when Cubs fans talk about Sox attendance haha

Edited August 18, 2021 by manbearpuig

[CentralChamps21]

My biggest fear is that they overpay to get Rodon. Would hate to see him on the Cubs.

[fathom]

19 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

One of my buddies actually believes they are a Castellanos and Correa signings away from being good next year. Can't make this shit up. Claims Hoerner is the shortstop next year (they would play Correa at 3B I guess in his mind) even though I've seen Hoerner enough to know he does not have the arm. He's a 2B or OF.

Edit: you also know the Cubs are trash and Sox are good when Cubs fans talk about Sox attendance haha

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

But he's so far into the Kool-Aid that he believes near 30-year old Frank flukey Schwindel is the real deal at 1B lol.

[southsider2k5]

32 minutes ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

That is somewhere around half a billion dollars in signings, which doesn't sound like this ownership group at all. 

[southsider2k5]

54 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

My biggest fear is that they overpay to get Rodon. Would hate to see him on the Cubs.

I would love to see a team like the Cubs overpay for Rodon.  There is a really large chance they get a pitcher who goes about a third of the time over the life of his deal.  Rodon strikes me as one of those deals where it will be a bad deal as soon as he signs it if it is as large/long as people seem to think it will be.

[fathom]

38 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

But he's so far into the Kool-Aid that he believes near 30-year old Frank flukey Schwindel is the real deal at 1B lol.

Rizzo, Madrigal, Correa and Wisdom is the infield 

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would love to see a team like the Cubs overpay for Rodon.  There is a really large chance they get a pitcher who goes about a third of the time over the life of his deal.  Rodon strikes me as one of those deals where it will be a bad deal as soon as he signs it if it is as large/long as people seem to think it will be.

My guess is still you'll see Boras do something really unprecedented with Rodon's contract, like a huge vesting option early in the deal or something like that, to get a team to give him #1 starter money.

[Tony]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

[Colome's Hat]

23 minutes ago, Tony said:

Anyone who references this masterpiece gets a like from me.

[35thstreetswarm]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

Wow!  Then they would have like three or four high profile position players as a core!  They haven’t had that since…well, like a few weeks ago when they were in third place. ?

[Harry Chappas]

So they are going to have 5 Jason Heyward contracts next season. 

[SoxAce]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

I would be shocked if Rizzo goes back there especially with his conflict with management. In my opinion Hoyer burned that bridge.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I would be shocked if Rizzo goes back there especially with his conflict with management. In my opinion Hoyer burned that bridge.

All of those guys seemed pretty pissed about the public statement of them all getting fair contract offers.  Who knows if a real offer changes their mind, but the Cubs sure didn't seem like they valued those guys very highly.

[fathom]

20 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Wow!  Then they would have like three or four high profile position players as a core!  They haven’t had that since…well, like a few weeks ago when they were in third place. ?

I even asked him how they think that will be enough, especially given the three aces in Milwaukee.  It will be interesting for me to see if he actually has inside info.

[Harry Chappas]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

I even asked him how they think that will be enough, especially given the three aces in Milwaukee.  It will be interesting for me to see if he actually has inside info.

They will over pay a handful of guys that are chasing the money to fill the park and then hope and pray they have the next Hendricks and Arrieta laying around in the organization.

[raBBit]

10 hours ago, Marqhead said:

The payroll flexibility they will have over the next two years will he astounding. But they have a mediocre farm system and no big time prospects I know of that will he ready to make contributions immediately. They can try and build a roster with FA veterans, but without a steady stream of young talent coming in it’s a story we’ve seen before. I’m not nearly as bullish on the Cubs as most who think they’ll be back in contention in 2023. 
 

Time will tell of course. I think they’re in for a longer rebuild them Jed wants to admit. 

With expanded playoffs and the way they'll spend in that division they could absolutely turn it around and make the playoffs if they have some luck and avoid injury in 2023.

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is somewhere around half a billion dollars in signings, which doesn't sound like this ownership group at all. 

A - That is nowhere near a half billion in signings.

B - Their ownership ran a top 5 payroll for multiple years in a row leading into COVID. 

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

All of those guys seemed pretty pissed about the public statement of them all getting fair contract offers.  Who knows if a real offer changes their mind, but the Cubs sure didn't seem like they valued those guys very highly.

What is a real offer? The Cubs are lucky that those guys didn't sign the extension they put forward. 

Per Buster Olney, the Cubs offered Baez an extension in the range of $180M prior to 2020.  Do you think he gets half that this offseason?

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/report-javy-baez-turned-down-cubs-180-million-extension-offer/2489584/#:~:text=The Cubs were ready to,prior to the 2020 season.

Per David Kaplan, Cubs offered Bryant around $200m in 2018. Obviously this one is more complicated since he still had control and has since seen his production decrease, but do you think Bryant would have been better off financially accepting that deal? Absolutely.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/10/11/chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-rejects-contract-offer

Per Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs offered Rizzo an extension in the amount of $70 prior to 2021. Do you think he beats that this offseason? He may be the only one who could possibly beat the extension the Cubs offered. If the NL doesn't get a DH I still would guess no.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/anthony-rizzo-contract-extension-update-cubs-president-jed-hoyer-very-confident-a-new-deal-will-be-reached/

[South Side Hit Men]

11 hours ago, Marqhead said:

The payroll flexibility they will have over the next two years will he astounding. But they have a mediocre farm system and no big time prospects I know of that will he ready to make contributions immediately. They can try and build a roster with FA veterans, but without a steady stream of young talent coming in it’s a story we’ve seen before. I’m not nearly as bullish on the Cubs as most who think they’ll be back in contention in 2023. 
 

Time will tell of course. I think they’re in for a longer rebuild them Jed wants to admit. 

Yes, I didn’t mean to confer the Cubs will be legitimately good next season, more so the weak ass 16 team playoff format will accommodate teams with 75-80 wins for the final slots. With Pittsburgh, Arizona and Colorado perennially eliminated, they just need to beat out four other teams out of twelve to make the playoffs under a sixteen team playoff, a very sad and low bar if enacted. 

7 hours ago, fathom said:

From a friend of mine that claims inside info, their plan is to sign Rizzo, Correa or Seager (with Nico going to CF) and a few starters like Rodon.

I’d be shocked if they spent that much money, but I can see them landing Rizzo, who barring a standout final six weeks and playoffs is not going to command a huge contract at an easy to fill position. His signing will be more for the fan base. They will likely sign a few more players, but more of the Joc Pederson $5-$10M variety, and maybe one higher priced option.

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

All of those guys seemed pretty pissed about the public statement of them all getting fair contract offers.  Who knows if a real offer changes their mind, but the Cubs sure didn't seem like they valued those guys very highly.

Jed did take care of each of his core on the way out, accommodating as best as possible their destination for personal / family issues.

Kimbrel wanted to stay in Chicago with his sick daughter, Bryant wanted to go out West near Vegas where he lives, and Rizzo had some personal reason he wanted to go to the Yankees I can’t recall at the moment. Baez wanted to go to the Mets to play with Lindor. Jed spoke with each player and tried to accommodate as best as he could.

Of the four, I’d say Rizzo is the most likely to come back based on what the market will offer for an aged 1B with a bad back.

I don’t see many teams clamoring for his services, the Yankees were pretty desperate this season with not wanting to spend any money due to the “luxury tax” and the Cubs eating all the cash over the ML minimum (Yankees did the same with the Odor and other trades), and their team devastated with injuries/Covid with Voit a bust this season and Stanton locked at DH.

[Marqhead]

2 hours ago, raBBit said:

With expanded playoffs and the way they'll spend in that division they could absolutely turn it around and make the playoffs if they have some luck and avoid injury in 2023.

 

I don’t see it. They have 2 position players and 1 pitchers. They have to build an entirely new team. They aren’t just going to shell out $200M per year and get they. They put themselves in a hole with their moves the last few years. 
 

Expanded playoffs is a different story, they might make it but I don’t think they will be a good team that quickly. 

[raBBit]

15 hours ago, Marqhead said:

I don’t see it. They have 2 position players and 1 pitchers. They have to build an entirely new team. They aren’t just going to shell out $200M per year and get they. They put themselves in a hole with their moves the last few years. 
  

Expanded playoffs is a different story, they might make it but I don’t think they will be a good team that quickly. 

I think Jed Hoyer knows what the MLB is planning to do with expanded playoffs. They'll have to spend significantly but past Heyward and Hendricks/Contreras (who are actually good), they have basically no money on the books.

Man Heyward has 25M coming in 2022 and 2023. I wonder if Balta still wants to trade for him.