I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Past criticism is fine.  I really hated the "go for it" 2014-2016 period...but I also get it...we got really lucky with how great Sale/Quintana/Abreu/Eaton were...in 2014 we had four guys that put up a combined 21 WAR...that's HALF way to the WAR you need to get to the playoffs with 4 guys...if we could just fill in around them 21 one-WAR guys but the problem was there was SO much garbage there (and yes, budget).  But as a fan,  trying to go for it in those years made sense, because...how could you not win with those four?   But credit to management that they signed those guys to good contracts, recognized the hopelessness of the hand and then went full rebuild.  Which I think has been executed beautifully...still as a fan it's been four painful rebuild years after four painful go-for-it years.  But frustration with the FO now?   Given the bolded part above...don't you kind of feel like we are the 2012 LA Angels where Mike Trout comes up...except...we have this amazing team around him already under construction.  When Ken Griffey, JR came up at 20...the Mariners had 27 year old Edgar Martinez, 26 year old Randy Johnson and 23 year old Omar Vizquel...that's four hall of famers...and for five years they were a non-contender.   The problem was that was it's just not enough.  It's why it's so hard to win in baseball...but I feel like the management has built a group of really good players...of the likely opening day roster...who is your worst guy? Leury Garcia seems a professional backup.   Adam Eaton, same.  A lot here would say Collins...but lefty hitting backup catcher with power and a batting eye seems very useful.  Reylo and Rodon I supposed but again...with upside.  If the plan is 8 years of excellence what management did this year...short term Lynn and Hendricks, long term with Vera and Cespedes...and not handing out bad contracts...and being patient.  Seems like the way to go.  Probably also why Hahn is so frustrated with fans negativity.  HE is so excited...which is a good sign.      

Absolutely dude. You nailed it.  One thing people don’t realize is the high level of pedigree each of these young guys brings.  These aren’t late first round talents.  Almost our entire lineup and pitching staff would be taken 1:1 in a draft.  That’s INSANE

[VAfan]

15 hours ago, SCCWS said:

Agree. The poster is the perfect example of a fair-weather fan. He has stopped  following the team for years and now is projecting everyone as a star. In reality, some of our stars will have off years and some will be injured more than they play ( similar to most teams). But this is an excellent roster and  future additions could be a bonus. It remains to be seen how TLR will impact the team.  Spring training is a time for optimism!!!! Lets hope by the All-Star game we are still feeling good about the team.  

I'm not exactly a "fair weather fan."  I go back to 1970 with the Sox, which is 51 years. And if you look at how long I've posted on Sox Talk (2003), I didn't just arrive yesterday. I guarantee I've posted here longer than most, and been a fan longer than a lot of posters on here have been alive. Just because I tuned out during the years when the Sox were tanking doesn't change that. 

Any, BTW, I'm not the only one projecting everyone as a star. MLB Top 100 Right Now has 9 Sox on the list, tied with the Dodgers. That's pretty damn good by any measure. 

I'm also not making any apologies for being excited and optimistic about the team. As the title of this post says -- I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year. Aren't you? 

Edited February 28, 2021 by VAfan

[VAfan]

9 hours ago, Tony said:

So awful poster aside, been thinking something Balta mentioned and the more I think about it.....the entire season comes down to two things. Health and Dylan Cease. This team is not very deep and doesn’t have a ton of reinforcements ready to replace key pieces in the lineup and rotation. The boys need to stay healthy. 

The other is Cease. We all feel fairly comfortable saying the 1-2-3 in the rotation should provide the Sox with quality production. If Cease can finally make the leap, the rotation is completely changed, and filling that 5th spot every day doesn’t seem as big of a challenge. If Cease continues his 2020 performance into 2021, you’re going to have a ton of long bullpen performances, on back to back days. So not only are you not getting good production out of the 4-5 spots in the rotation, but you’re killing another strength of your team in the bullpen and exposing them to high inning workloads. 
 

If the Sox keep their type guys on the field and Dylan Cease can become a quality ML pitcher....this team wins 95-100 games. 

I tend to agree that Dylan Cease can be a true difference maker on this team. If he makes anything close to the kind of leap forward that Lucas Giolito did under the tutelage of Ethan Katz, the Sox will be a juggernaut. 

But I don't think the Sox have to have Cease to win the division. He might just be slightly improved, and give you .500 pitching. That's all you really need from a 4th starter. And if they want to use Crochet in long relief, we didn't really have that last year, so you won't necessarily wear out the pen if Cease can't go more than 5 innings. Heck, didn't the Rays build a whole philosophy around using starters only twice through the lineup? 

As for health, the Sox core are mostly young guys. We don't really have a lot of older players. That should help. 

[VAfan]

Last little tibit I'll leave here for now. At home, I've been known as the "No" man. So sunny optimism is not completely in character. But sports fandom can be an enjoyable escape, and when a team I've been rooting for for more than 50 years is just hitting its sweet spot, why not kick back and take it in? 

Do y'all remember the 2005 team? That was a hoot from start to finish, and completely unexpected. First place wire to wire. Ahead at some point in each of their first 35 games. Tied for most wins in Sox history. 11-1 in the postseason. 4 complete game wins in a row over the Angels in the ALCS. 1-0 victories in game 1, first game after the All-Star break and last game of the World Series. Won a playoff game on a contested dropped third strike call, heady baserunning by AJ Pierzynski, a timely pinch runner who stole second and a double down the line by Joe Crede.  You talk about lack of depth on this team? Remember the smurfs of 2005? Pablo Ozuna, Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, and Brian Anderson. None of them could hit. But all would help the team win the World Series. 

[hi8is]

Yes.

[Chick Mercedes]

1 hour ago, VAfan said:

I tend to agree that Dylan Cease can be a true difference maker on this team. If he makes anything close to the kind of leap forward that Lucas Giolito did under the tutelage of Ethan Katz, the Sox will be a juggernaut. 

But I don't think the Sox have to have Cease to win the division. He might just be slightly improved, and give you .500 pitching. That's all you really need from a 4th starter. And if they want to use Crochet in long relief, we didn't really have that last year, so you won't necessarily wear out the pen if Cease can't go more than 5 innings. Heck, didn't the Rays build a whole philosophy around using starters only twice through the lineup? 

As for health, the Sox core are mostly young guys. We don't really have a lot of older players. That should help. 

if all Cease did was to maintain what he did last season, then that alone would be amazing for a 4th starter which might be enough for a WS run if the big 3 do their jobs. Hell, Cease could regress slightly and they'd still be ok. Team goes WAAY over the top if Rodon or somebody else is just league wide average as a 5th starter.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Fernando Tatis Jr

[caulfield12]

40 minutes ago, Fernando Tatis Jr said:

if all Cease did was to maintain what he did last season, then that alone would be amazing for a 4th starter which might be enough for a WS run if the big 3 do their jobs. Hell, Cease could regress slightly and they'd still be ok. Team goes WAAY over the top if Rodon or somebody else is just league wide average as a 5th starter.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-cease/18525/stats?position=P
You must be confusing Cease 2019 with the 2020 version.  If he repeats 2019, there will be be massive bullpen issues if he again averages less than 5 IP per start.    If you had Cease 2019 for fifth start, that’s more what would expect from the typical playoff-bound rotation.

[Chick Mercedes]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-cease/18525/stats?position=P
You must be confusing Cease 2019 with the 2020 version.  If he repeats 2019, there will be be massive bullpen issues if he again averages less than 5 IP per start.    If you had Cease 2019 for fifth start, that’s more what would expect from the typical playoff-bound rotation.

Hmm. IIRC, I think most AL playoffs teams had 2 or more main starters with ERAs 4 or above. I'll have to go dig for stats. But with the Sox bullpen, I'm pretty optimistic about them shutting teams down after 5, pitching with leads due to the lineup, and more likely than not of not being being overused. There are a lot of arms.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Fernando Tatis Jr

[FriendlyNorthsider]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-cease/18525/stats?position=P
You must be confusing Cease 2019 with the 2020 version.  If he repeats 2019, there will be be massive bullpen issues if he again averages less than 5 IP per start.    If you had Cease 2019 for fifth start, that’s more what would expect from the typical playoff-bound rotation.

I'm really curious to see what sort of mechanical changes Katz made with Cease. If Cease maintained his 2020 performance that would be a huge disappointment because he had a 6.36 FIP (80th out of 81 pitchers with 50 IP) and a 5.87 xFIP (79th).  His LOB% was 81.7% (league avg is 74%). Hitters had a .238 BABIP despite being in the bottom 25% of the league in xSLG, xBA, Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit %. Essentially he got about as lucky as you could get last year.

That said his stuff is filthy and he has so much room to improve and could do so very rapidly. He has the potential to be a star if he improves his command and it could easily happen this year. The projections for him all seem to believe that his K/9 will go back up and his walks will go down. I believe that too, but he needs to be a whole lot better this year. 

One reason I'm optimistic is that his splits when starting 1-0 vs 0-1 in 2020.

After 1-0 (.310/.468/.643) vs AL avg of (.256/.357/.444)
After 0-1 (.157/.229/.324) vs AL avg of (.219/.271/.361)

Yes its a small sample size, but Cease is absolutely awful when he starts behind in the count and is pretty much elite after a first pitch strike. Getting ahead in the count is usually that last thing to develop for a young pitcher and hopefully this is the year he gets over that hump. 

Edit: I looked back through his splits and oh boy..

After 1-0 he has an xFIP of 8.70 and after 0-1 his xFIP is 3.63

Edited February 28, 2021 by FriendlyNorthsider

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Fernando Tatis Jr said:

if all Cease did was to maintain what he did last season, then that alone would be amazing for a 4th starter which might be enough for a WS run if the big 3 do their jobs. Hell, Cease could regress slightly and they'd still be ok. Team goes WAAY over the top if Rodon or somebody else is just league wide average as a 5th starter.

We are likely in trouble if Ceases puts up another 6.36 FIP season.  He needs to be substantially better next year than he was in 2020.

[Chick Mercedes]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We are likely in trouble if Ceases puts up another 6.36 FIP season.  

Fair enough 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, VAfan said:

I tend to agree that Dylan Cease can be a true difference maker on this team. If he makes anything close to the kind of leap forward that Lucas Giolito did under the tutelage of Ethan Katz, the Sox will be a juggernaut. 

But I don't think the Sox have to have Cease to win the division. He might just be slightly improved, and give you .500 pitching. That's all you really need from a 4th starter. And if they want to use Crochet in long relief, we didn't really have that last year, so you won't necessarily wear out the pen if Cease can't go more than 5 innings. Heck, didn't the Rays build a whole philosophy around using starters only twice through the lineup? 

As for health, the Sox core are mostly young guys. We don't really have a lot of older players. That should help. 

Why?

Past injuries is the best predictor of future injuries; not age.

[The Beast]

On 2/28/2021 at 12:45 AM, VAfan said:

Last little tibit I'll leave here for now. At home, I've been known as the "No" man. So sunny optimism is not completely in character. But sports fandom can be an enjoyable escape, and when a team I've been rooting for for more than 50 years is just hitting its sweet spot, why not kick back and take it in? 

Do y'all remember the 2005 team? That was a hoot from start to finish, and completely unexpected. First place wire to wire. Ahead at some point in each of their first 35 games. Tied for most wins in Sox history. 11-1 in the postseason. 4 complete game wins in a row over the Angels in the ALCS. 1-0 victories in game 1, first game after the All-Star break and last game of the World Series. Won a playoff game on a contested dropped third strike call, heady baserunning by AJ Pierzynski, a timely pinch runner who stole second and a double down the line by Joe Crede.  You talk about lack of depth on this team? Remember the smurfs of 2005? Pablo Ozuna, Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, and Brian Anderson. None of them could hit. But all would help the team win the World Series. 

Let me put it this way. I am going to enjoy the White Sox this year, but I also am realistic. It is possible that key players regress from last year’s performances, that acquisitions do not live up to what they should be able to bring to this club and that injuries take a toll on the team and expose depth issues (which is why I thought more money spent on pitching and another bat would help and I can easily see them standing pat at the deadline).

However, it is possible that the perfect storm I mention above does not happen, players like Vaughn, Cease and Kopech take the next step forward and flourish this year and the team wins 90+ games and a division title. I would call progress actually winning a series in the postseason this year and getting ready to win a World Series either this year or in the coming years.

I think it is dangerous for people (not necessarily you) to not consider what could happen to negatively impact this team. I’m optimistic they will be competitive, but I also don’t have blinders on to the issues the team could face this year.

[NWINFan]

1 hour ago, The Beast said:

Let me put it this way. I am going to enjoy the White Sox this year, but I also am realistic. It is possible that key players regress from last year’s performances, that acquisitions do not live up to what they should be able to bring to this club and that injuries take a toll on the team and expose depth issues (which is why I thought more money spent on pitching and another bat would help and I can easily see them standing pat at the deadline).

However, it is possible that the perfect storm I mention above does not happen, players like Vaughn, Cease and Kopech take the next step forward and flourish this year and the team wins 90+ games and a division title. I would call progress actually winning a series in the postseason this year and getting ready to win a World Series either this year or in the coming years.

I think it is dangerous for people (not necessarily you) to not consider what could happen to negatively impact this team. I’m optimistic they will be competitive, but I also don’t have blinders on to the issues the team could face this year.

I agree with this sentiment. I can remember so many seasons when I had no hope since the team was an obvious non-contender. At least in 2021, there is plenty of room for hope. But the club still has questions, and these questions will only be answered as the season progresses. I am looking forward to this year, but an not going to get carried away and assume a World Series is in the immediate future. Yet, all in all, things are good and we can enjoy the season as we watch the team progress, or hopefully not, regress.

[caulfield12]

If we can add one of Greinke, Scherzer, Bundy, Gausman, McCullers, E.Rodriguez...or perhaps Salvador Perez in their walk years.

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-in-walk-year-before-free-agency-in-2021?partnerId=zh-20210301-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=Efpg%2FnAP74GfM%2B7J16JKmHtWj0FuTrNG2puuZpUCEi949h%2B4ZYHOh0mUfVqavQy7&bt_ts=1614602867953

Of course, everyone in baseball is monitoring the five stud SS’s along with Kris Bryant, particularly Story and J.Baez.

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 2/28/2021 at 6:25 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

We are likely in trouble if Ceases puts up another 6.36 FIP season.  He needs to be substantially better next year than he was in 2020.

I get that a lot of posters here believe that Katz can and will "fix Cease," but it isn't "just" fixing Cease, so much as it is keeping Cease AND Lopez AND Kopech AND Rodon from walking the fucking yard every 5th day. Without cromulence out of the majority of this group, this team will be in trouble in terms of competing for a playoff berth. 

 

Now, to the topic of this thread, I'm going to enjoy this year's team and the possibility of returning to watching games. But I think it's also fair to believe that Colome + Q would have yielded more fWAR than Rodon + Hendricks. I also think its fair to hate the TLR hire, just as much as it is to like the dismissal of Coop. One can enjoy this team and this season, AND still dislike certain aspects of it, and still dislike how it was built this offseason. It really ain't that hard to do, IMO.

[hi8is]

We suck. Haven’t even won all year.

[SonofaRoache]

On 2/28/2021 at 4:36 AM, Fernando Tatis Jr said:

Hmm. IIRC, I think most AL playoffs teams had 2 or more main starters with ERAs 4 or above. I'll have to go dig for stats. But with the Sox bullpen, I'm pretty optimistic about them shutting teams down after 5, pitching with leads due to the lineup, and more likely than not of not being being overused. There are a lot of arms.

It's 2021 my fellow Sox fan. We aren't solely using ERA as an indicator of pitching value. 

[tray]

After one learns how to handle winning and accept defeat they can enjoy the game. 

Fair weather fans never learn that. 

[RagahRagah]

13 hours ago, tray said:

After one learns how to handle winning and accept defeat they can enjoy the game. 

Fair weather fans never learn that. 

Do you define fair weather as fans who don't watch during tough times?

Honestly never understand having an attitude towards people like that. You're less inclined to watch every game when your team sucks. 

[TomPickle]

My biggest worry about Cease is that he's already tried a lot of the new wave pitching training and he still can't throw strikes. Maybe he will find the thing that clicks for him and unlocks his potential, but personally I have almost no faith he's going to be a useful starting pitcher.

I have real worries about Cease and Rodon pitching back to back days given both have routinely left the game before the 5th inning. If Lopez can throw strikes and wear it for 6 innings I would rather have him in the rotation.

[tray]

"Do you define fair weather as fans who don't watch during tough times? "

Yes, if you decide to watch only if the team has a winning record, you are a fair weather fan.

I watched the 2005 World Series at a SS bar where several Sox fans shed tears of joy  after we clinched it because this was their team, our team. They stuck with the White Sox  through thick and thin and through all the years...several .decades in some cases.

It's OK to be a fair weather fan if that is what one chooses to become.  All aboard this year and if it doesn't work out,  maybe show up on the North side when fair weather hits up there.

[South Side Hit Men]

I enjoy listening to games and watching game recaps every year, win or lose. If it was contingent on the team winning, I wouldn't have been a fan in the first place, since they sucked the first year I watched/listened, and they are the only franchise in MLB to have advanced only one year in the playoffs across the 45 seasons of my fandom.

Last among 30, I'm still here. Have only booed three White Sox players/managers ever (and of course Reinsdorf and Einhorn), unfortunately two of the three returned this off-season (David Wells was the third).

In terms of the team's prospects, I believe this will be a developmental year, and if Cease Kopech and Crochet develop and the later two are allowed to emerge from the bullpen, the White Sox have a good chance at a playoff run the next two years before contracts for their core begin to expire.

Edited March 4, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Two-Gun Pete]

17 hours ago, TomPickle said:

I have real worries about Cease and Rodon pitching back to back days given both have routinely left the game before the 5th inning. If Lopez can throw strikes and wear it for 6 innings I would rather have him in the rotation.

I'm of the same mindset.

Last season, I felt that the main reason why the SOX crapped their pants down the stretch, and why they failed to advance in the playoffs wasn't for a lack of BP arms. I felt it was due to a lack of depth out of the rotation. In other words, Dunning skunked Cease, Lopez, Rodon, and Gonzalez, mainly because those guys had incurable allergies to throwing strikes.

So, what did those geniuses do?

They blew their FA wad on the top reliever available this offseason, and then went back to wishing/hoping/praying that Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap. I would have preferred that they enhanced the rotation's depth by grabbing TWO SPs this offseason, so that this organization's hopes aren't pinned on Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech fucking finding the fucking strike zone with a roadmap.

 

From my POV, what they've chosen to do is suboptimal. Sure, it gives some fans the jollies to know that they made a luxury purchase in Hendriks. And KW/RH/JR can add another "press conference win" to their long and treasured history of "winning the offseason."

But God help us, if Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can't fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap.

 

I will enjoy this season, win, lose, or draw. But I think they haven't optimized their choices here, and I think its OK to point this out. [I mean, if this was WSI, we'd all be banned, because we don't have our pompons out for KW/RN/JR like teenagers on homecoming weekend.]

 

3 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

In terms of the team's prospects, I believe this will be a developmental year, and if Cease Kopech and Crochet develop and the later two are allowed to emerge from the bullpen, the White Sox have a good chance at a playoff run the next two years before contracts for their core begin to expire.

Holy FUCK, would that be 31 flavors of shit if this is the case. They failed to lock up Giolito before the prices for reupping TOR SPs went through the roof. They stoopidly gave away an asset to acquire a turd like Mazara. They've given away 6 years of whatever Dunning will do for 1 year of future competitive eater Lance Lynn. They've added a geezing geezer as manager. And, it looks like they'll start the clocks on Crochet and Vaughn, with or without extensions.

In sum, whether they're right or wrong, they've decided that 2021 is the year, and they've strived mightily to shorten the competitive window. So, if this is a developmental year, they've [once again] royally fucked up.

Edited March 4, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm of the same mindset.

Last season, I felt that the main reason why the SOX crapped their pants down the stretch, and why they failed to advance in the playoffs wasn't for a lack of BP arms. I felt it was due to a lack of depth out of the rotation. In other words, Dunning skunked Cease, Lopez, Rodon, and Gonzalez, mainly because those guys had incurable allergies to throwing strikes.

So, what did those geniuses do?

They blew their FA wad on the top reliever available this offseason, and then went back to wishing/hoping/praying that Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap. I would have preferred that they enhanced the rotation's depth by grabbing TWO SPs this offseason, so that this organization's hopes aren't pinned on Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech fucking finding the fucking strike zone with a roadmap.

 

From my POV, what they've chosen to do is suboptimal. Sure, it gives some fans the jollies to know that they made a luxury purchase in Hendriks. And KW/RH/JR can add another "press conference win" to their long and treasured history of "winning the offseason."

But God help us, if Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can't fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap.

 

I will enjoy this season, win, lose, or draw. But I think they haven't optimized their choices here, and I think its OK to point this out. [I mean, if this was WSI, we'd all be banned, because we don't have our pompons out for KW/RN/JR like teenagers on homecoming weekend.]

 

Holy FUCK, would that be 31 flavors of shit if this is the case. They failed to lock up Giolito before the prices for reupping TOR SPs went through the roof. They stoopidly gave away an asset to acquire a turd like Mazara. They've given away 6 years of whatever Dunning will do for 1 year of future competitive eater Lance Lynn. They've added a geezing geezer as manager. And, it looks like they'll start the clocks on Crochet and Vaughn, with or without extensions.

In sum, whether they're right or wrong, they've decided that 2021 is the year, and they've strived mightily to shorten the competitive window. So, if this is a developmental year, they've [once again] royally fucked up.

This off-season was to placate Tony, give him players he remembered (Lynn/Eaton) or likes (Hendriks pet rescue). Just glad its one year deals for Eaton and Lynn, and Hendrick's $s are 2/3 of Grandal and Keuchel.

My choice of words in terms of development is based on many young important core pieces facing their first full MLB season. Other young players around the league are facing the same challenges, but the White Sox are relying on more key younger players than any other contending team.

That's why I believe 2022 is a more realistic chance of everything coming together in terms of legitimate contention for a World Series. Wouldn't have committed so much for four years to three 30 something players, but it is what it is with this FO. It's also why it is so important Kopech and Crochet are managed to be able to start 25-30 games next year. If they are kept in the bullpen to placate Tony over the next season or two, it will be a monumental and unforgivable epic waste of talent.

Max MLB Games Played / Season Hitting: (Age 24) Madrigal (29 Games 2020); (Age 24) Jimenez (122 Games 2019); (Age 23) Robert (56 Games 2020); (Age 23) Vaughn (0 Games).

Max MLB IP / Season Pitching: (Age 25) Cease (73 IP 2019); (Age 22) Crochet (6 IP 2020); (Age 25) Kopech (14 IP 2018).

Edited March 4, 2021 by South Side Hit Men