I think the Sox can play .600 baseball

[VAfan]

If the Sox play .600 baseball, that gets them to 97 wins. That's a LOT more than the projection systems have them winning. So this prediction is highly optimistic. But then I'm pumped about the Sox this year. 

How did I arrive at .600 baseball? Pretty simple. I think the Sox can win 2/3 of the games started by their front three starters - Giolito, Keuchel, and Lynn. And they can win 1/2 of the games started by whomever fills in those last two slots. Combined, that's 3/5, or .600 baseball. 

A few things in support:

1. Sox have the best offense in the AL, or are at least neck and neck with the Yankees. Projection systems seriously underrate the Sox offense. 

2. Sox have best bullpen in the AL, which will help them win a lot of games.

3. The Twins won 101 games in 2019, and this White Sox team is better than that Twins team. 

I will grant you that this is not a scientific analysis. I'm not going to go into WAR or look at all the projections by Steamer, or PECOTA, or anyone else. This is purely my gut sense of where the Sox will end up at the end of the regular season. 

I also think we'll win the division by 4-5 games. 

[EloyJenkins]

Love the optimism. IF they stay healthy and win 65-70% of their division games, I think 95-97 is obtainable. Health is crucial though. 

[YourWhatHurts]

I think the Sox will have to battle against the Twins to win the division.  I think on paper they are a better team.  A lot depends on the growth of Cease.  The Twins have a lot of young talent coming up also.

I think the best team in the division probably wins about 95-96 games.  The Royals are increasing their talent level, the Tigers will be much better, and the Indians are still going to be competitive.  The bottom of the division isn't as soft and will become more difficult going forward.

I think the Sox will play well against other bad teams outside of the AL Central.  But it would take leaps from Cease & Rodon/5th Starter to put them in 100+ win territory IMO.  But of course if the back 2 in the rotation pitch like #3 SPs or something then sure, we could win 100+ games.  We're probably the clear-cut best team in the AL if that happens.

[YourWhatHurts]

8 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Love the optimism. IF they stay healthy and win 65-70% of their division games, I think 95-97 is obtainable. Health is crucial though. 

Health is crucial for everyone.

I think this about the Sox though:

1) Their offense is going to keep them in probably 158-160 or so of the games played in the season; maybe there are a few blowouts against us but there won't be many games we won't be in

2) This team isn't going to lose a lot of games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings; their record from the 7th on when leading is probably going to be absurd/hilarious

With the exception of Eloy's shitty defense in LF, we're probably going to try to win in KC Royals fashion, i.e. pick up a lead in the 6th inning and cruise to victory.  We have a chance to do that. We're definitely going to benefit from a weak AL right now: CLE is lesser, MIN isn't too terrifying; the Yankees are hurt, BOS is way down, TB is down a bit, TOR hasn't grown yet, and the Astros are at the tail end of their run.

[Dominikk85]

Depends a lot on starter health. Offense and pen should be very good and if anyone is healthy they could even win 100 games. But there isn't a lot of starter depth and an injury to a key guy could be tough to compensate. However that really applies to most teams in baseball. 

[tray]

We all saw Eloy make some bad plays where he went into the net on the foul line and also going back on balls hit over his head.  Eloy has promised to improve his defense this year.
Eloy has speed, is tall , has a decent reach, and has shown some athleticism.  Left field is the spot for a player like Eloy  that can hit for power but may not be a top defensive outfielder. He will be sufficient there for many years unless he gaains weight and loses his speed.

Eloy is my favorite player on the White Sox. I love the guys positive attitude, his demeanor, and his clutch hitting. He is what Ernie Banks was to the Cubs in the 60's.

 

 

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I think the Sox will have to battle against the Twins to win the division.  I think on paper they are a better team.  A lot depends on the growth of Cease.  The Twins have a lot of young talent coming up also.

I think the best team in the division probably wins about 95-96 games.  The Royals are increasing their talent level, the Tigers will be much better, and the Indians are still going to be competitive.  The bottom of the division isn't as soft and will become more difficult going forward.

I think the Sox will play well against other bad teams outside of the AL Central.  But it would take leaps from Cease & Rodon/5th Starter to put them in 100+ win territory IMO.  But of course if the back 2 in the rotation pitch like #3 SPs or something then sure, we could win 100+ games.  We're probably the clear-cut best team in the AL if that happens.

 I think one of the main problems is that the sox typically don't work well with the "on paper" thing. I also think Cleveland will still be a thorn on our side.

On the plus side, we are slightly improved and as much as I am not a fan of La Russa I think we will fare much better with him as the manager.

[Jerksticks]

I’m excited to not be tactically out-managed pretty much ever again.  If it happens it’s probably a tip-your-cap or  rolled-the-dice-and-it-worked kinda moment.  
 

Should be refreshing. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, tray said:

We all saw Eloy make some bad plays where he went into the net on the foul line and also going back on balls hit over his head.  Eloy has promised to improve his defense this year.
Eloy has speed, is tall , has a decent reach, and has shown some athleticism.  Left field is the spot for a player like Eloy  that can hit for power but may not be a top defensive outfielder. He will be sufficient there for many years unless he gaains weight and loses his speed.

Eloy is my favorite player on the White Sox. I love the guys positive attitude, his demeanor, and his clutch hitting. He is what Ernie Banks was to the Cubs in the 60's.

 

 

He's fast in a straight line.  Problem is his hips are horrendous and so is his natural ability to judge fly balls.  I've said it for awhile now just literally park him 10 feet off the line, 10 feet in front of the track at the Cell.  Tell him to catch everything behind him and to his right and to not give a fuck about anything in front of him or in the gap to center.  That's the only way he'll be playable there in his career.  He also has a noodle arm with a windup that would make Wilson Alvarez blush.

[Vulture]

Thankfully, I don’t think La Russa is that stupid.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

If the Sox play .600 baseball, that gets them to 97 wins. That's a LOT more than the projection systems have them winning. So this prediction is highly optimistic. But then I'm pumped about the Sox this year. 

How did I arrive at .600 baseball? Pretty simple. I think the Sox can win 2/3 of the games started by their front three starters - Giolito, Keuchel, and Lynn. And they can win 1/2 of the games started by whomever fills in those last two slots. Combined, that's 3/5, or .600 baseball. 

A few things in support:

1. Sox have the best offense in the AL, or are at least neck and neck with the Yankees. Projection systems seriously underrate the Sox offense. 

2. Sox have best bullpen in the AL, which will help them win a lot of games.

3. The Twins won 101 games in 2019, and this White Sox team is better than that Twins team. 

I will grant you that this is not a scientific analysis. I'm not going to go into WAR or look at all the projections by Steamer, or PECOTA, or anyone else. This is purely my gut sense of where the Sox will end up at the end of the regular season. 

I also think we'll win the division by 4-5 games. 

#3.  Based on what?   How about they win the division, FIRST?

Games are never won on paper.  Or now, online.

 

And sure, we should win around 88-90 games at least, but, like last season, how much of that is due to Detoit, KCR and the shrinking Indians?

There are three really talented teams in the AL East and then you still have the Astros and A’s.  Getting to the ALCS should be the goal after winning the AL Central, but have to get much better defense from Tim Anderson to be truly elite.   There’s a lot more to it, obviously, but he sets the tone for the entire team right now.  

And every time we’ve gone outside the organization for a highly-compensated reliever, the results have been disappointing (Koch, Dotel/Linebrink, Robertson)...until the last two seasons of Colome.  Thankfully, we have 4-5 guys capable of taking that spot at some point.

[SCCWS]

2 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m excited to not be tactically out-managed pretty much ever again.  If it happens it’s probably a tip-your-cap or  rolled-the-dice-and-it-worked kinda moment.  
 

Should be refreshing. 

Hopefully not a "senior moment"

[YourWhatHurts]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

#3.  Based on what?   How about they win the division, FIRST?

Agree.  2019 was probably the lowest point the division has been in quite some time, and maybe the lowest point the division will be in for the next 10+ years, where only 2 teams were good, and one of them was the cheapskate Indians and the other was just Minnesota. 

The biggest spenders should be us and DET, and when we're spending and contending while DET is doing the same, MIN should still be good, CLE should still be good, and KC might also be very good (I think that KC might end up the toughest of them all actually).

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Agree.  2019 was probably the lowest point the division has been in quite some time, and maybe the lowest point the division will be in for the next 10+ years, where only 2 teams were good, and one of them was the cheapskate Indians and the other was just Minnesota. 

The biggest spenders should be us and DET, and when we're spending and contending while DET is doing the same, MIN should still be good, CLE should still be good, and KC might also be very good (I think that KC might end up the toughest of them all actually).

If Ilitch’s son is amenable to opening up the checkbook again...DET needs their young pitching to come through. They’re still 2-3 years away.

[Tony]

This team goes as far as Dylan Cease and Dallas Keuchle take them. Those are the two keys for the season, in my opinion. 

[pcq]

6 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

 I think one of the main problems is that the sox typically don't work well with the "on paper" thing. I also think Cleveland will still be a thorn on our side.

On the plus side, we are slightly improved and as much as I am not a fan of La Russa I think we will fare much better with him as the manager.

I would never sell Cleveland short. Big mistake. Sox were 2-8 I believe. Give the Sox a healthy first half for Carlos and they might be on their way. It might take some time to get the O going and I worry that Robert is in a funk. The Royals might compete with the Sox better than expected. 

[caulfield12]

40 minutes ago, pcq said:

I would never sell Cleveland short. Big mistake. Sox were 2-8 I believe. Give the Sox a healthy first half for Carlos and they might be on their way. It might take some time to get the O going and I worry that Robert is in a funk. The Royals might compete with the Sox better than expected. 

Robert slump continuing from last year...?   I’m probably more concerned about Moncada returning to 2019 form, but things will balance out with Grandal having access to video/iPad in the dugout.

For every regression candidate (Abreu, Engel, TA), there are even more who could break out...the three names already mentioned along with Eaton,Vaughn/Collins and Jimenez/Madrigal having more upside as well.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Robert slump continuing from last year...?   I’m probably more concerned about Moncada returning to 2019 form, but things will balance out with Grandal having access to video/iPad in the dugout.

For every regression candidate (Abreu, Engel, TA), there are even more who could break out...the three names already mentioned along with Eaton,Vaughn/Collins and Jimenez/Madrigal having more upside as well.

Engel turned over a new leaf last season, I fear he'll sit 5-6 times a week because of La Russa's love of Eaton. Engel was strong against overall and righties (.837 OPS / .811 overall) last season. Small sample, but he looked comfortable at the plate, and with regular at bats could continue to do well. I hope he keeps lighting it up this Spring. Moncada is healthy, I have no concerns with him. Abreu should be solid since he appears recovered from COVID. TA continues to improve each year.

The primary concern I have is regression, age / injuries to the four high priced veterans, and the ability for the dozen or so rookies to survive and thrive during their first full season in the MLBs.

• Can Robert, Vaughn, Madrigal and Eloy get acclimated to a full season and keep production up to potential?
• Can the first three adjust to the adjustments made against them as the league takes note of their tendancies? 
• Can the relatively young bullpen guys pitch well and stay healthy over their first full seasons (Foster, Heuer, Marshall, Bummer), and will Hendriks regress?

The White Sox have thin depth at nearly every position with any injuries. I think 2022 is more logical in terms of legitimate contention, based on the inevitable growing pains many rookies will experience during their first full season. They really need Kopech to be able to start next season, and Crochet to start half a season. If they are banished to the bullpen because Jerry and Tony don't have much more time above ground, than the "Multiple Championship Window" becomes a fast sprint, with no starting depth beyond fickle high priced old free agents.

Edited March 20, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[poppysox]

Engel is a candidate to be a very important piece for this club.  Won't surprise me if he becomes the starter by mid-season.  I am anxious to see who TL picks as backup catcher and how he uses Engel.  Lots of tuning moves to be done in the next 10 days.

 

[Dominikk85]

On 3/19/2021 at 4:53 PM, YourWhatHurts said:

I think the Sox will have to battle against the Twins to win the division.  I think on paper they are a better team.  A lot depends on the growth of Cease.  The Twins have a lot of young talent coming up also.

I think the best team in the division probably wins about 95-96 games.  The Royals are increasing their talent level, the Tigers will be much better, and the Indians are still going to be competitive.  The bottom of the division isn't as soft and will become more difficult going forward.

I think the Sox will play well against other bad teams outside of the AL Central.  But it would take leaps from Cease & Rodon/5th Starter to put them in 100+ win territory IMO.  But of course if the back 2 in the rotation pitch like #3 SPs or something then sure, we could win 100+ games.  We're probably the clear-cut best team in the AL if that happens.

I'm not sure the tigers are better. They have some interesting young pitching but their offense is still extremely bad and their pen probably too. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

No way... I would have never thought you believed this based on all your other 20 threads making the same point.

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 3/19/2021 at 5:49 PM, Tony said:

This team goes as far as Dylan Cease and Dallas Keuchle take them. Those are the two keys for the season, in my opinion. 

I think I agree on this point. I would also throw into this same "area of concern" the ability for Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, and Crochet to throw strikes and stay healthy. At the same time, Keuchel and Lynn have to stave off Father's Time's inevitable victory over them for one more season. 

 

Its why I remained stunned and disappointed that this front office did nothing this offseason to improve the depth among the rotation.

 

To the topic of this thread, I think its certainly "possible" that this team could play .600 ball. But I think its equally possible that this team could play .500 ball this season.

[Texsox]

When my optimism gets too high, which has been often,  I'm reminded that the franchise has never reached the playoffs in back to back years. That's right in over 100 years never reached the playoffs in back to back years. 

The excitement will be seeing how they collapse. Injuries? Dysfunctional clubhouse? Other teams play out of their minds (Incredible Indians, Ridiculous Royals)? Strike? 

[35thstreetswarm]

The lifecycle of the VAfan optimism post is nearly complete...

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The lifecycle of the VAfan optimism post is nearly complete...

Next we're getting Rodon for 2021 Cy Young I would imagine...