ELOY HURT! (3/25 Update: Torn Pectoral Tendon, Out 5-6 months))

[Rowand44]

15 minutes ago, South Side Fireworks Man said:

I wish the Sox would acquire a Carl Everett equivalent  to play LF right now.

Lets just get Carl Everett back!

[Dominikk85]

I'm curious how the Vaughn thing works. I still don't think he can play there every day but if he can play there like 2-3 times a week it would help the offense. 

[Orlando]

 

[Soxsi75]

32 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re not going to offset eloys production, it’s just not going to happen. This costs the white Sox several games in the standings no matter what - even if things go well and Vaughn takes that position, well now we’ve lost depth somewhere else.

But, if anything else goes wrong, this could turn into the kind of gaping lineup and defensive hole that costs the team a wild card birth. For now, at the very least you have to insure against that as well as you can, and buy time to see if another option appears.

Unfortunately, you are absolutely right. His production is not going to be off set. No way it can. The best way to look at it and the best case scenario is this.  Whether he's here or not, our pitching would really dictate how far we go. Is our pitching good enough to get us to the post season? Now it might have to be even better because now we went from an excellent offense to maybe an above average one? I just hope they do get a major caliber hitter out there to plug in to left and not settle for minor league level garbage like Nick Williams or Billy Hamilton, or even Adam Engle offensively. As far as another bat at DH to help off set this loss, it's time for Zack Collins to step up. He's 26 now. By that age, look this up if you don't believe me, you'll know if you're going to be a good major league hitter. Many hitters throughout history may struggle before this age, and you can chalk it up to being young. But they figure it out and you'll see them producing by this time/age. So no more hearing from the sabergeeks about his OPS in the minors and therefore what he can do in the "future." It's now as far as he's concerned. Vaughn is still young. Hope he can adjust quickly.....but he can say he's still too young. So I'm looking at him as a bit of wild card hopeful. 

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

2 weeks of Williams is an issue? I don't see that. He has played well this spring and you can catch lightning in a bottle as well as having Vaughn peppered in if he shows any competency. Engel will be playing in this role if they do not trade or pick up a FA. 

Any everyday OF that includes two of Williams/Engel/Leury/Eaton is IMHO an issue, yes.

I suppose this is the set-up you have to roll with for now assuming no outside additions (batting order not really the focus here and would need to put more thought into that):

RHP: Anderson SS, Eaton RF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Vaughn LF, Grandal C, Robert CF, Collins DH, Madrigal 2B

LHP: Anderson SS, Madrigal 2B, Vaughn DH, Abreu 1B, Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Grandal C, Engel RF, Leury / Eaton LF

This all assume Vaughn can passabily play LF (big if), and obviously ignores the fact that Engel is out for a bit.  Thankfully Eaton isn't terrible against LHP (tho he certainly hits RHP better), so Leury/Eaton covering the OF corner for the first couple weeks will probably be the play.  Maybe Williams makes the roster, but I am not playing him everyday over Leury.  

We really need another option - even its its just a guy we put the alt camp to start.  

 

[SonofaRoache]

47 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re not going to offset eloys production, it’s just not going to happen. This costs the white Sox several games in the standings no matter what - even if things go well and Vaughn takes that position, well now we’ve lost depth somewhere else.

But, if anything else goes wrong, this could turn into the kind of gaping lineup and defensive hole that costs the team a wild card birth. For now, at the very least you have to insure against that as well as you can, and buy time to see if another option appears.

If other guys step up we can get those games right back, specifically Rodon and Cease. We aren't going to offset his production for sure, but we need a guy to give us some of that production back. 

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

I'm curious how the Vaughn thing works. I still don't think he can play there every day but if he can play there like 2-3 times a week it would help the offense. 

Not trying to be a dick, but what allows him to play 2-3 times a week vs everyday?

[bmags]

sure woulda been nice to have Lastella

[Dominikk85]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not trying to be a dick, but what allows him to play 2-3 times a week vs everyday?

You are losing not as many runs Defensively and on the other days you can put the other LF guys in favorable matchups. 

Like when Engel is ready you put him inm against lefties, maybe once a week williams against righties and Vaughn the rest of the time against righties. 

That way you minimize Vaughns negative defensive impact and you also minimize the negative offensive impact of the other guys. 

[he gone.]

I probably put too much time into this for no reason, but it's Friday and don't feel like working...

Obviously all the options that have kind of discussed previously ...

a) Vaughn to LF, Collins to DH, Leury fills in a bit more in the OF until Engel comes back. Not a great solution, but very viable in the short term. It gives Collins an extended look, Mendick can do the UTIL in the OF while Leury does more the OF. This puts a lot more pressure on the rest of the team & on guys like Collins and Vaughn not to stumble. It's anywhere between a band-aid and maybe an actual solution.

b) Billy Hamilton/Nick Williams - don't like this option. It's okay for a 10 game stretch, but not for an extended period. Engel is the other option, but again, I don't think that's even close to a solution either. Eaton and Robert are going to be injury risks and Engel is perfect in that role of 4OF that can play some extended IL stints, but not an everyday for the whole season.

c) FA route... in order of what I'd like: Nick Markakis - he recently retired, so not sure if he was keeping in shape. But he has always been a high OBP guy, can slot in around 6-8 in the lineup and just do a veterans job. He's perfect IMO, just don't know if there's interest. Cespedes - it's not a great sign that he put on his display and nobody signed him. Not sure if it was his expectations for a MLB contract or him not looking good. Kluber and many pitchers did the same type of workouts and signed days later. If his bat speed is down, then really you've got yourself nothing. Shit though, I'd sign him, get him on the field for a week of games and send him to the alternate site for 3 weeks. If it's working out then give him a cup of coffee to prove it, otherwise cut bait. Puig - don't really want him after reading that sexual allegation report ... not that im judging allegations ... but there are some allegations like "he grabbed my butt" and some like "he pinned me down and then jerked off" ... not trying to say there are ranges because victims are affected all the same, but god damn did that one sound super creepy and real and if true, that's like a weird way of deranged. there are things bigger than baseball - and don't feel like cheering for that guy even if he's fun to watch on the field. EE - I made the point earlier in the offseason that for the price he'd go at it may be worth exploring. this doesn't really fix much - it theoretically gives you a possible bounce back bat at DH at a low cost, but arguably you're just blocking Collins that likely can put up the same production and doesn't really fix LF - just puts Vaughn there permanently.  Josh Reddick? Just a body really. 

d) Trade: I feel like we've been connected to Polanco for a while & has a good spring. just 29 years old still. could be worse, plus PIrates would love to get money off the books. Could be an easy fix. Cost is a bit much... $11mm, $12.5mm team option. arguably Pirates could pick up maybe ... $3mm and we send back a Yermin type and were all happy. 1yr, 8mm. David Peralta? 1 year left, then arb year then free agent. Probably costs a bit more but is a real solution rather than a band-aid. Colorado has Sam Hilliard, Tapia, Garret Hampson and Blackmon. I'd lean towards the former ... Blackmon is just way too costly and old and propped by Coors. he was a disaster second half of last year and statcast looks bad, bad. $21mm, $20mm and $10mm still due ...... that's yikes. Even at $10, $10, $5mm I'd pass without having to return anything. career .263 hitter on the road. Tauchman - like that idea, not sure Yankees want to make us better. Oscar Mercado - not sure Indians want to give us a shot to buy low at a former prospect. Avi Garcia - not sure Brewers would cut bait, but guessing they'd be open to cutting salary. Likewsie Cain .. but he's old and expensive. Grichuk ... Toronto outfield is a bit crowded, but don't see them trading their depth when trying to contend and to a contender. 

e) ST Cuts: this is open to interpretation for now ... but I'd have to guess guys like Marisnick or Maybin (Cubs guys) ... guys of that caliber are cut. Are they sexy? no. Are they basically another adam engel? yes. Joc Pederson woulda been nice in retrospect. Eddie Rosario too. sad face. Jay Bruce. 

[Dominikk85]

If the Sox are willing to take on some salary there are probably some decent trade options that don't cost a haul. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re not going to offset eloys production, it’s just not going to happen. This costs the white Sox several games in the standings no matter what - even if things go well and Vaughn takes that position, well now we’ve lost depth somewhere else.

But, if anything else goes wrong, this could turn into the kind of gaping lineup and defensive hole that costs the team a wild card birth. For now, at the very least you have to insure against that as well as you can, and buy time to see if another option appears.

It shouldn't cost the Sox several games. His career WAR is 2.8. So even if he would have been improved this year his WAR would be around 2. So if they find a replacement level player, which by definition should be easy, they won't lose too many games.

[SoCalChiSox]

21 minutes ago, bmags said:

sure woulda been nice to have Lastella

Why would we want a position versatile left handed righty killer who would only cost on average 7m a year for the three years of our first championship window when instead we can have no depth at all for free? 

[ron883]

34 minutes ago, Orlando said:

 

Good Lord, Bowden is such a hack

[hogan873]

11 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

If the Sox are willing to take on some salary there are probably some decent trade options that don't cost a haul. 

Bryant makes too much sense...and too much money for this team, unfortunately.  He'd be perfect to fill the hole and would be another back-up for Moncada.

[maxjusttyped]

27 minutes ago, bmags said:

sure woulda been nice to have Lastella

Profar would have been great, too. Imagine what happens if Tim goes in the IL, which is something that's happened in at least the last 2 seasons.

[zisk]

Still no mention of Rutherford or Micker. The silence is deafening.

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It shouldn't cost the Sox several games. His career WAR is 2.8. So even if he would have been improved this year his WAR would be around 2. So if they find a replacement level player, which by definition should be easy, they won't lose too many games.

First of all, if you go to Fangraphs it's 3.5, not 2.8. 

Secondly, that's in his first 168 games. In 2020 he put up 1.6 fWAR, but because there was this virus everywhere that was in only 55 games.  If he were to have played 150 games at that pace, that's a 4.4 fWAR win/season pace.

Steamer had him for 3.4 wins, and they tend to underestimate young guys. With improvement from being a 3rd-ish year player, he could totally have been a 5-win player.

[Dick Allen]

Jon Jay is available.

[DirtySox]

16 minutes ago, zisk said:

Still no mention of Rutherford or Micker. The silence is deafening.

Why would they be mentioned? They have underwhelmed. It happens with prospects. It's not news.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 minutes ago, zisk said:

Still no mention of Rutherford or Micker. The silence is deafening.

Why should there be ? Neither one is ready and frankly not close either.

[NWINFan]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

It is going to be tough for Hahn to fill this with a player of significance quickly, even if JR is kidnapped and money will be thrown at the problem. Hope springs eternal, and there aren't many worse looks than a salary dump right before the season starts. They can probably get a mediocre guy pretty easily, but if they want to offset Eloy's production within any reasonable level, it's going to be hard. 

Yes, making a trade always sounds good, but is never easy. Plus the fact that the Sox don't have a whole lot of leverage at the moment. Maybe something can happen at the deadline. They won't miss Eloy's defense, but his absence creates a big hole in the lineup. It will be a challenge to overcome this.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

You are losing not as many runs Defensively and on the other days you can put the other LF guys in favorable matchups. 

Like when Engel is ready you put him inm against lefties, maybe once a week williams against righties and Vaughn the rest of the time against righties. 

That way you minimize Vaughns negative defensive impact and you also minimize the negative offensive impact of the other guys. 

Gotcha and fully agree.  Vaughn against RHP in LF is probably the optimized outcome given that Leury & Engel are both good against LHP.

[ptatc]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

First of all, if you go to Fangraphs it's 3.5, not 2.8. 

Secondly, that's in his first 168 games. In 2020 he put up 1.6 fWAR, but because there was this virus everywhere that was in only 55 games.  If he were to have played 150 games at that pace, that's a 4.4 fWAR win/season pace.

Steamer had him for 3.4 wins, and they tend to underestimate young guys. With improvement from being a 3rd-ish year player, he could totally have been a 5-win player.

Ok. so it depends on the company you want to use. Baseball reference said 2.8. So take the average of all of it even if he has the great improvement on the high end of the prediction and it's 3.5-4. Hopefully he returns for a month and mitigates it even more. We can see how the 3.5-4 games makes a difference but I wouldn't say they are going to lose several games by these stats

[Jerksticks]

40 minutes ago, zisk said:

Still no mention of Rutherford or Micker. The silence is deafening.

I’ve had this sneaking suspicion the last few months that Micker is super close to being ready if not ready.  But that’s based on hope and sneaking suspicion...which means jack.  But that would be super cool if Micker could rock it and then take over for Eaton next year