A Nick Madrigal Sized Sample

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They used the 4th pick on a player other teams get in the 4th round.  League average 2B are easy to find.  

[chitownsportsfan]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

His hands and wrists are too weak.  Sure he could add some strength there but it won't be nearly enough to produce any significant power.  He is what he is. A low impact player.  

.  Any player, regardless of frame, can put on the amount of muscle needed to be a pro ballplayer. It will be up to Nick to put in the work.  Frankly it doesn't look like he did much lifting at all this winter.

[greg775]

I'm not worried about Madrigal yet. Quite frankly, I don't have my "hate" radar focused on any Sox player yet. Usually it comes out and strikes me hard the moment I start to dislike a player. The experts say the Sox are here to stay so I'm just going to try to enjoy the ride. Frankly with Eloy and Anderson out, the team is not going to have many winning road trips.

As far as when to demote Madrigal, it would only be if his defense stinks through June 1. If he's a lousy defender that's not acceptable at 2B. I think the team will improve soon. 3-4 isn't that bad. Let's see how the team fares in division play. Obviously team won't win it if the injuries pile up.

I see in the future steady improvement in the pitching and hoping on the hitting.

[Kalapse]

Hanser Alberto put up 2 WAR in 2019 slashing .305/.329/.422 (9.1% k rate) with positive defense. Realistic expectations for Madrigal at this point probably aren't too far off from 2019 Hanser Alberto, hopefully with a higher walk rate than 2.9%, though with his total lack of power and natural inclination to expand the zone I don't expect a high walk rate from Nick, he's going to be challenged constantly.

[gusguyman]

32 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

That was MY argument, lol. I was harsh on the Lynn trade because they weren't optimizing what they were getting. I agree with you.

However, that is a separate issue from Madrigal and Robert. You wanna blame the office for that? ...Ok. Fine. But Madrigal getting the hate he is getting and being expected to be great right away and not experience growing pains and anxiety is silly, and that ignorance is all too commonplace now. The anger is misplaced.

This is such a straw man. No one is saying he needs to be an All-star right now. If he was batting .290 but playing with sound fundamentals, no one would be complaining (yet).

But since the start of 2020 Madrigal is literally dead last in the league with -4.9 baserunning runs. His -0.6 defensive runs puts him at 38th out of 52 second basemen with 100+ at bats. He's been flat-out bad.

Madrigal has a pretty limited ceiling, but that was OK because he was supposed to have a rock-solid floor. If it takes him a year or two to develop into a gold glove fielder and an above-average baserunner, that's a huge problem. The whole point of drafting him at #4 instead of higher ceiling players was because he wasn't supposed to have that sort of learning curve.

And that's assuming he does develop. I tend to think the fielding will get there, since its mostly errors dragging him down and it appears to be mental. But the baserunning? That is a huge issue, and he looks way slower than promised. And FWIW, even though its only been 35 games, he's had a whole offseason in there. People expect development jumps over offseasons, especially with easily fixable issues like baserunning. It is really frustrating for him to come back and be making the exact same running and fielding errors as last year. 

[fathom]

FWIW I was going through the College World Series thread from after he got drafted and saw where he made a huge error and was really pressing at the plate.

[gusguyman]

20 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

This is such a straw man. No one is saying he needs to be an All-star right now. If he was batting .290 but playing with sound fundamentals, no one would be complaining (yet).

But since the start of 2020 Madrigal is literally dead last in the league with -4.9 baserunning runs. His -0.6 defensive runs puts him at 38th out of 52 second basemen with 100+ at bats. He's been flat-out bad.

Madrigal has a pretty limited ceiling, but that was OK because he was supposed to have a rock-solid floor. If it takes him a year or two to develop into a gold glove fielder and an above-average baserunner, that's a huge problem. The whole point of drafting him at #4 instead of higher ceiling players was because he wasn't supposed to have that sort of learning curve.

And that's assuming he does develop. I tend to think the fielding will get there, since its mostly errors dragging him down and it appears to be mental. But the baserunning? That is a huge issue, and he looks way slower than promised. And FWIW, even though its only been 35 games, he's had a whole offseason in there. People expect development jumps over offseasons, especially with easily fixable issues like baserunning. It is really frustrating for him to come back and be making the exact same running and fielding errors as last year. 

And btw, if you do want to be optimistic about Madrigal's future, here are some promising points:

• In 2020, statcast had him as 3 outs above average (85th percentile! at 2nd base. That was in only 30 games, and with a .961 fielding percentage -- he had .992 in the minors)
• His sprint speed was 96th in the league, but his top HP to 1B time was 59th. So he may not be as fast as hoped, but have enough acceleration to make up for it (which matters for stolen bases)
• In his first 30 games facing MLB pitching, he already has a top 20 In Zone contact % and the 2nd best K%.
• Even with his poor EV and non-existent barrel rate, Statcast had him at an XBA of .303 

Edited April 8, 2021 by gusguyman

[RagahRagah]

2 hours ago, gusguyman said:

This is such a straw man. No one is saying he needs to be an All-star right now. If he was batting .290 but playing with sound fundamentals, no one would be complaining (yet).

But since the start of 2020 Madrigal is literally dead last in the league with -4.9 baserunning runs. His -0.6 defensive runs puts him at 38th out of 52 second basemen with 100+ at bats. He's been flat-out bad.

Madrigal has a pretty limited ceiling, but that was OK because he was supposed to have a rock-solid floor. If it takes him a year or two to develop into a gold glove fielder and an above-average baserunner, that's a huge problem. The whole point of drafting him at #4 instead of higher ceiling players was because he wasn't supposed to have that sort of learning curve.

And that's assuming he does develop. I tend to think the fielding will get there, since its mostly errors dragging him down and it appears to be mental. But the baserunning? That is a huge issue, and he looks way slower than promised. And FWIW, even though its only been 35 games, he's had a whole offseason in there. People expect development jumps over offseasons, especially with easily fixable issues like baserunning. It is really frustrating for him to come back and be making the exact same running and fielding errors as last year. 

Like I said, this happens. People are not machines. Give the kid the benefit of the doubt FFS.

And to some of your points and to add to mine, he was injured last year. Sometimes it takes a while to become comfortable again, stop being tentative and get back into a rhythm. Yes, even with fundamentals. 

[MackowiakYakYak]

Most of Madrigal’s mistakes look like problems with his head. Now is when coaching matters and someone needs to figure out how to calm him. He obviously has the ability right now to be better than a replacement player and a decent regular, IF he is able to start playing his game. 

[Kalapse]

I have a feeling it'll eventually come out that the Brewers asked for Madrigal in a package for Corbin Burnes and were rebuffed and I'm going to lose my shit.

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

I have a feeling it'll eventually come out that the Brewers asked for Madrigal in a package for Corbin Burnes and were rebuffed and I'm going to lose my shit.

He’s an absolute stud

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

18 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

I have a feeling it'll eventually come out that the Brewers asked for Madrigal in a package for Corbin Burnes and were rebuffed and I'm going to lose my shit.

I better we rebuffed on not wanting to add Kelley.

Edited April 8, 2021 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, Kalapse said:

I have a feeling it'll eventually come out that the Brewers asked for Madrigal in a package for Corbin Burnes and were rebuffed and I'm going to lose my shit.

I am Nick's biggest fan but I would have packed his bags myself to send him to Milwaukee for Corbin.

[TheTruth05]

Great AB from yaz

[Vulture]

Good thing Vaughn is on the bench for those high quality at bats

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Kalapse said:

I have a feeling it'll eventually come out that the Brewers asked for Madrigal in a package for Corbin Burnes and were rebuffed and I'm going to lose my shit.

Rumor is they were close on Madrigal, Heuer, & Kelley and then last second the Brewers wanted Vaughn or possibly Crochet I believe.

[mmmmmbeeer]

On 4/7/2021 at 3:41 PM, reiks12 said:

Its sad that Madrigal cant be seen as a rookie dealing with adjustments and learning pains like our other struggling rookies when they first came up. 

He was a fourth overall pick.  He gets compensated as a fourth overall pick.  He's not playing like a fourth overall pick.  

Expecting AT LEAST replacement level defense and the consistent ability to make routine plays isn't exactly asking a lot out of a fourth overall pick in MLB.  He has zero "adjustment time" to play some damn defense and not make stupid baserunning errors, imo.    

[mqr]

28 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

He was a fourth overall pick.  He gets compensated as a fourth overall pick.  He's not playing like a fourth overall pick.  

Expecting AT LEAST replacement level defense and the consistent ability to make routine plays isn't exactly asking a lot out of a fourth overall pick in MLB.  He has zero "adjustment time" to play some damn defense and not make stupid baserunning errors, imo.    

He is playing like a 4th pick. This isnt the NFL

The best number 4 position player in the last 15 years is Kyle Schwarber. And it’s not really particularly close. 
 

there are only 3(!!!) players drafted 4th overall since 1995 with more than 15 career war and one of them is Gavin Floyd

Edited April 9, 2021 by mqr

[ron883]

9 hours ago, fathom said:

FWIW I was going through the College World Series thread from after he got drafted and saw where he made a huge error and was really pressing at the plate.

I wonder if a player like him benefited more from the aluminum bats than others. Obviously most do, but that slight increase in power must have done wonders for him. 

[mqr]

You can’t miss with the fourth overall pick!

 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, mqr said:

You can’t miss with the fourth overall pick!

 

Clearly many teams do/did. Add up the career fWAR for Aiken Kolek and Rodon in that Schwarber draft year. 

Edited April 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[mqr]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Clearly many teams do/did.

I know....

[mmmmmbeeer]

Were the failures of those guys due to the inability to play basic fundamental defense and know how to run the bases?  Of course not.

No 4th overall pick should be struggling with the fundamentals of baseball like Madrigal has since being called up.  

[bmags]

I think talking about 4th pick like that is too cute by half. You should compare it to everyone drafted after them in first round - because you had your pick at them. Nothing about the 6th pick made it more magical to select Kelenic.

[GermanSoxFan]

5 hours ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

Were the failures of those guys due to the inability to play basic fundamental defense and know how to run the bases?  Of course not.

No 4th overall pick should be struggling with the fundamentals of baseball like Madrigal has since being called up.  

Most of these guys struggled with the even more fundamental thing of hitting the ball above short season ball.

Edited April 9, 2021 by GermanSoxFan