A Nick Madrigal Sized Sample

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

Tough crowd in this room. Why all of the hate for Madrigal? Seriously. I don't get it.

Here are the stats for another player.

Year     Games  Errors  Average

Year 1:   98       14         .283

Year 2:   145     28         .257

Year 3:   151     20         .240

Year 4:   122     26         .335

Year 5:   49       6           .322

In Year 2 and 4, this player led the Majors in errors committed. Not the American League. The entire league!

Where was all of the hate for Tim Anderson when he first came up? LOL.

[Kalapse]

4 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Tough crowd in this room. Why all of the hate for Madrigal? Seriously. I don't get it.

Here are the stats for another player.

Year     Games  Errors  Average

Year 1:   98       14         .283

Year 2:   145     28         .257

Year 3:   151     20         .240

Year 4:   122     26         .335

Year 5:   49       6           .322

In Year 2 and 4, this player led the Majors in errors committed. Not the American League. The entire league!

Where was all of the hate for Tim Anderson when he first came up? LOL.

Comparing Nick Madrigal, a 4 year college starter, to Tim Anderson, an extremely raw Juco player, isn't exactly instructive. Also, Tim's defense is still pretty bad but he makes up for it with explosive athleticism (range and arm in the field, power at the plate) that Madrigal does not possess. That's the biggest issue with Nick, he doesn't have any of the physical traits to overcome his limitations, he just can't afford at all to struggle with parts of his game that should come pre-baked with a polished 4 year college starter. Also, a lot of Nick's fuck-ups in the field aren't leading to errors.

[oldsox]

Why does he have to step out of the box after every pitch and take two practice swings?

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Why does he have to step out of the box after every pitch and take two practice swings?

Same reason Konerko did...force of habit, repeated over a lifetime.

[zisk]

3 walks , 2hbp in 7 games. nice. see where his defense is by June. 380 ops. good. he does look slower than advertised though.

[Jerksticks]

I miss watching Paulie redo his gloves and spit in his hands

[Dominikk85]

20 hours ago, Kalapse said:

Hanser Alberto put up 2 WAR in 2019 slashing .305/.329/.422 (9.1% k rate) with positive defense. Realistic expectations for Madrigal at this point probably aren't too far off from 2019 Hanser Alberto, hopefully with a higher walk rate than 2.9%, though with his total lack of power and natural inclination to expand the zone I don't expect a high walk rate from Nick, he's going to be challenged constantly.

Madrigal has a good eye, last year his chase rate was a league average 31% and this year he has lowered that to an excellent 20% (not uncommon it is a bit higher in the first MLB year as you haven't seen that kind of movement at lower levels). 

He won't walk a ton if he is a 5 Homer guy but I think he will be around 7% or so and not be a 3% walk guy like Alberto.

Billy Hamilton might be a good comp for this (obviously Billy has a way worse hit tool but he is a no power hitter with a solid eye and has a career 7% walk rate despite not being able to hit). 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

He's not a 5 homer guy tho.  I'm not sure he will ever post an ISO over .120.  At best I think he does something like 290/340/400 for his career.  If he's a solid 2B that's like a 2.5 WAR player.  Just not much to really get excited about with him unless somehow he manages to hit 330 every year.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I'll take a .380 obp every day 9 hitter every day of the week. Just shore up the defense a bit and it's all good.

[Jerksticks]

2 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

I'll take a .380 obp every day 9 hitter every day of the week. Just shore up the defense a bit and it's all good.

Yep.  And that would end up being one of the best #4 picks in forever

[T R U]

1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

Yep.  And that would end up being one of the best #4 picks in forever

I feel pretty confident hes going to hit .300 or better year in and out, he just doesn't strike out and when you're putting the ball in play that much its going to find holes. Now hes starting to walk more as well. Hes played 36 MLB games, I think hes going to be fine.

Im pretty sure Moncada was washed up last week and we were headed for an under .500 season according to this board. Relax.

[Dominikk85]

23 hours ago, GREEDY said:

Acceptable for an average baseball player or Acceptable for the #4 overall pick in the draft?  

I think expectations are driving some of the concerns.  

I personally feel like he has to be at the very least an above average second basemen for the pick to not be a colossal failure.  And at this point absolutely everything we have seen tells me unless there is virtually no reasonable path to that for Nick.  

 

4th overall picks last 10 years to madrigal 

18: madrigal

17: brandan mckay

16: Riley pint

15: Dillon tate

14: schwarber

13: Kohl stewart

12: Kevin gausman

11: Dylan bundy

10: Christian colon

09: Tony Sanchez 

 

You hope for more but really outside the top picks any guy who becomes an average regular is a success. 

Sure when they drafted him they hoped to get a 3.5-4 win guy but really most 4 picks in the last 10 years have not even been regular 2 win players except for gausman and Bundy who took long to get good too. 

[chitownsportsfan]

The problem with comparing Madrigal to previous 4th overalls is that as a 4 year college player all we heard was "2 WAR floor".  How many 4 year college guys 5-8 and 140lbs soaking wet go 4th overall?  Well, Nick was supposed to be a unicorn.  Most teams in the top 10 are drafting on upside not floor.  If you're gonna draft floor you best not miss.

 

@Kalapse bingo!  I was about to make that post.  Nick would be bucking incredible trends to hit 300 every year.  You can't just assume it.

Edited April 9, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Kalapse]

Of the 181 players on an active roster with 1500 career PA's only 8 have a career batting average of .300 or greater and only 2 of those guys have a sub .150 career ISO, it's extremely hard to do. Assuming he'll be a perennial .300+ hitter because of his bat to ball skills while ignoring the role power plays in batting average seems unwise.

Miguel Cabrera
Jose Altuve - AKA the REAL reason Madrigal was drafted 4th overall
DJ LeMahieu
Mike Trout
Joey Votto
Charlie Blackmon
Buster Posey
Mookie Betts

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The problem with comparing Madrigal to previous 4th overalls is that as a 4 year college player all we heard was "2 WAR floor".  How many 4 year college guys 5-8 and 140lbs soaking wet go 4th overall?  Well, Nick was supposed to be a unicorn.  Most teams in the top 10 are drafting on upside not floor.  If you're gonna draft floor you best not miss.

The problem with this is we don't know that we have missed yet, some people suspect it, some people believe it, and some people reject it.  By the end of a full season we will know better.  He certainly hasn't helped the negative opinions but I'm willing to give a guy who has succeeded in college the chance to show he can do it in the majors 

[caulfield12]

His hit tool is spot on: contact, an INCREDIBLE two-strike hitter (something like .350-.400 with two strikes?, best in or close to best in the bigs). So, Nick can hit. Better than expected. The power, first off, who cares. Second, he was asked about this multiple times during the year and says he’s not worried, it’ll come. He asked team vets and they all reassured him it’ll come, a year or two into his career, not to worry. Also, when he was rehabbing his shoulder injury at the alternate site in Schaumburg, Nick took a ball off of the scoreboard during a scrimmage. Unrelated, when I played a sim season (only got into July I think, when the actual season kicked off) during the pandemic delay, Madrigal started the season with my White Sox and had like eight homers in the first half. So, someone in the Out of the Park sim game likes Nick’s power.

If there is a worry, it’s that his game instincts aren’t as advertised. He’s said to be a “smart” player, etc., but there were occasions, particularly baserunning, where he seemed very untailored. Sure, rookie mistakes, but Nick was advertised (and drafted) as a guy very ready, with ideal instincts. So, hitting better than expected, feel for the game more raw than anticipated.

John: Madrigal got himself injured pretty early in the season. Is there any concern about his health going forward?

Brett: The injury was an example of Nick letting his aggression get the best of him. It’s an adjustment for him to not be able to control the game like he’s used to, perhaps even at the college level. He made an aggressive first-to-third advance on a single to center and jammed his arm on the slide trying to avoid the ball. I don’t think there’s concern about his health from that injury; that his aggressiveness might cause some problems in the future, perhaps.

 

https://www.buildingthedam.com/2020/10/15/21506145/beavers-in-mlb-talking-with-southside-sox-about-nick-madrigal-rookie-season-oregon-state-baseball

[mqr]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I think talking about 4th pick like that is too cute by half. You should compare it to everyone drafted after them in first round - because you had your pick at them. Nothing about the 6th pick made it more magical to select Kelenic.

I mean yeah you're right, just expecting anything out of any given pick after like 2 is a total crapshoot is all I meant. And for all we know Kelenic will suck too. 

[caulfield12]

Well, the White Sox have survived having one of the worst first round draft histories since the late 80’s, minus guys like Sale and TA.

That said, regardless of what we think, he’s David Eckstein to TLR already, so he will be in there pretty much everyday.

He has always been one of those players who was not going to hurt the team...a complementary piece.  If the big bsts do what they are supposed to, it really doesn’t matter all that much.

It’s just more magnified due to injuries...we had the same thing with Brian Anderson in 2006, where he got benched not because of defensive issues but simply because the rest of the offense was struggling and they couldn’t afford a complete black hole in the lineup.

All we can do is hope for improvements and a continuous process of acclimation...the results following the confidence/braggadocio.   He’s not going to be traded anytime soon, regardless of everyones’ criticisms.

I’m actually waiting on another VAFAN thread defending him, since picking on Leury or the bullpen/TLR is too obvious at this point.

This team was always going to go as far as TA, Robert, Moncada, Grandal, Jimenez and Abreu carried it.   At least now with Vaughn, Mercedes and Collins, we have even more options, two most weren’t considering or counting on much from.

[maggliopipe]

Wasn't Jonathon India linked pretty heavily to the Sox in that draft? Ended up going 5th right after Nick. Coincidentally he's shifted to 2B and has a nice little start to his MLB career with the Reds. It'll be fun to track their careers going forward as he was probably a more realistic alternative to Nicky than Kelenic (given the Sox reluctance to draft HS guys in the first round). 

[reiks12]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, the White Sox have survived having one of the worst first round draft histories since the late 80’s, minus guys like Sale and TA.

That said, regardless of what we think, he’s David Eckstein to TLR already, so he will be in there pretty much everyday.

He has always been one of those players who was not going to hurt the team...a complementary piece.  If the big bsts do what they are supposed to, it really doesn’t matter all that much.

It’s just more magnified due to injuries...we had the same thing with Brian Anderson in 2006, where he got benched not because of defensive issues but simply because the rest of the offense was struggling and they couldn’t afford a complete black hole in the lineup.

All we can do is hope for improvements and a continuous process of acclimation...the results following the confidence/braggadocio.   He’s not going to be traded anytime soon, regardless of everyones’ criticisms.

I’m actually waiting on another VAFAN thread defending him, since picking on Leury or the bullpen/TLR is too obvious at this point.

This team was always going to go as far as TA, Robert, Moncada, Grandal, Jimenez and Abreu carried it.   At least now with Vaughn, Mercedes and Collins, we have even more options, two most weren’t considering or counting on much from.

If hes david eckstein going forward thats a win. Id take 15 war over the next 6 years easy.

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, mqr said:

I mean yeah you're right, just expecting anything out of any given pick after like 2 is a total crapshoot is all I meant. And for all we know Kelenic will suck too. 

See Jeremy Reed...albeit with more athleticism.  Still not a pure CFer...although he can play it more than adequately.

He’s likely to be a 15-18 homer guy coming up as a rookie at Safeco.

In reality, nobody will be shocked if Rodriguez ends up being the best outfielder (with Kyle Lewis in there as well, another outfielder many targeted but has suffered his own series of injuries.)

Edited April 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, maggliopipe said:

Wasn't Jonathon India linked pretty heavily to the Sox in that draft? Ended up going 5th right after Nick. Coincidentally he's shifted to 2B and has a nice little start to his MLB career with the Reds. It'll be fun to track their careers going forward as he was probably a more realistic alternative to Nicky than Kelenic (given the Sox reluctance to draft HS guys in the first round). 

One of the raps on India was his lack of a defined position where he excelled defensively...but that versatility comes in handy these days.

Of course, there’s no way the Reds (Nick Senzel included) are going to maintain their current offensive juggernaut pace, any more than Yermin will.

At any rate, they’re the surprise MLB breakout team so far, having lost quite a few important pieces, with Oakland on the other side of the ledger.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

19 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

The problem with this is we don't know that we have missed yet, some people suspect it, some people believe it, and some people reject it.  By the end of a full season we will know better.  He certainly hasn't helped the negative opinions but I'm willing to give a guy who has succeeded in college the chance to show he can do it in the majors 

They missed the second they took a no ceiling 2B only with the 4th pick.  They wasted a rare opportunity to draft a high ceiling superstar for an avg run of the mill player.

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They missed the second they took a no ceiling 2B only with the 4th pick.  They wasted a rare opportunity to draft a high ceiling superstar for an avg run of the mill player.

I know how you feel

[GREEDY]

3 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Tough crowd in this room. Why all of the hate for Madrigal? Seriously. I don't get it.

Here are the stats for another player.

Year     Games  Errors  Average

Year 1:   98       14         .283

Year 2:   145     28         .257

Year 3:   151     20         .240

Year 4:   122     26         .335

Year 5:   49       6           .322

In Year 2 and 4, this player led the Majors in errors committed. Not the American League. The entire league!

Where was all of the hate for Tim Anderson when he first came up? LOL.

Are you 100 years old?

Errors and Batting average??? And you even drop an "LOL".  C'mon man.   I legit LOL'd.

I'll try to get past the ridiculousness and respond by saying comparing a toolsy raw athlete prospect to a polished low ceiling college player is not even remotely fair.  

Edited April 9, 2021 by GREEDY