A Nick Madrigal Sized Sample

[SonofaRoache]

3 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Tough crowd in this room. Why all of the hate for Madrigal? Seriously. I don't get it.

Here are the stats for another player.

Year     Games  Errors  Average

Year 1:   98       14         .283

Year 2:   145     28         .257

Year 3:   151     20         .240

Year 4:   122     26         .335

Year 5:   49       6           .322

In Year 2 and 4, this player led the Majors in errors committed. Not the American League. The entire league!

Where was all of the hate for Tim Anderson when he first came up? LOL.

Tim Anderson got a lot of flack. He also wasn't praised as a future gold glove fixture and MVP caliber player. Nick is getting flack because it's been shoved down our throats that he will be a long term gold glove winner, elite baseball instincts, and very good speed. We have seen little of these attributes so far. He will definitely get better, but there is reason for concern. 

[GREEDY]

59 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

4th overall picks last 10 years to madrigal 

18: madrigal

17: brandan mckay

16: Riley pint

15: Dillon tate

14: schwarber

13: Kohl stewart

12: Kevin gausman

11: Dylan bundy

10: Christian colon

09: Tony Sanchez 

 

You hope for more but really outside the top picks any guy who becomes an average regular is a success. 

Sure when they drafted him they hoped to get a 3.5-4 win guy but really most 4 picks in the last 10 years have not even been regular 2 win players except for gausman and Bundy who took long to get good too. 

The only remotely comparable player/pick on the list is Colon (who I think was only a college freshman) who was indeed a failure.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They missed the second they took a no ceiling 2B only with the 4th pick.  They wasted a rare opportunity to draft a high ceiling superstar for an avg run of the mill player.

That said, he had the opposite skill set of nearly everyone on the roster.

Contact hitters who get on base, can move runners along, do the little things, solid fundamentals, and think situationally...in isolation, it’s bad, if you were trying to rebuild a team from scratch around that pick as the foundation.

There was supposed to be the certainty attached to Madrigal that guys like Jo Adell and Witt, Jr., didn’t possess as raw high school athletes.  Hahn probably doesn’t want another Courtney Hawkins fiasco.  Bubba Starling.  Austin Beck.  The list goes on and on.  Royce Lewis is no sure thing after his season-ending injury.  So much volatility with high schoolers.

That’s not a great reason to be so risk averse, though.  A lot of our highly advanced college bats haven’t performed as well as expected for a plethora of reasons.

[Jose Abreu]

3 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Where was all of the hate for Tim Anderson when he first came up? LOL.

I know the fact that this is a false equivalence was already addressed, but also... where were you?? TA was loathed by many as recently as early 2019. The criticisms of him were so over the top and annoying in 2018 that at one point I just stopped defending him because nobody would actually listen

[chitownsportsfan]

18 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I know the fact that this is a false equivalence was already addressed, but also... where were you?? TA was loathed by many as recently as early 2019. The criticisms of him were so over the top and annoying in 2018 that at one point I just stopped defending him because nobody would actually listen

Of those that have much, much is expected.  I think the frustrations with TA were mostly just because of how insanely talented he is and how well he hit in the minors, at every level, before temporarily turning into a pumpkin in MLB.  

I really don't see much point in comparing TA to Nick.  One was a boom or bust type that ended up booming.  The other was a "what you see is what you get type" that so far, isn't giving us what everybody thought they saw.  It wasn't only the Sox that were effusive about Nick's "can't miss" floor.

Edited April 9, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The problem with comparing Madrigal to previous 4th overalls is that as a 4 year college player all we heard was "2 WAR floor".  How many 4 year college guys 5-8 and 140lbs soaking wet go 4th overall?  Well, Nick was supposed to be a unicorn.  Most teams in the top 10 are drafting on upside not floor.  If you're gonna draft floor you best not miss.

 

@Kalapse bingo!  I was about to make that post.  Nick would be bucking incredible trends to hit 300 every year.  You can't just assume it.

Many thought he could bulk up and add power, some even dreamt of him becoming altuve. 

Longenhagen thought madrigal would eventually hit 15+ Homers with good defense which could have made him a 4-5 win player. 

The floor was his strongest argument but it is not like he had no upside, if he Really was a. 300+ guy with 15 bombs and good 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The problem with comparing Madrigal to previous 4th overalls is that as a 4 year college player all we heard was "2 WAR floor".  How many 4 year college guys 5-8 and 140lbs soaking wet go 4th overall?  Well, Nick was supposed to be a unicorn.  Most teams in the top 10 are drafting on upside not floor.  If you're gonna draft floor you best not miss.

This, plus you look at it regardless of what pick as did you pass on a player far better within one or two spots of your selection.

Criteria: Greater than 20 bWAR +/- within 2 selections of the White Sox; First Round (not including FA Compensatory Picks).

White Sox Crushed It with their First Round draft pick:

• 1987 (GM Larry Himes) #5 Jack McDowell (27.8) over #3 Willie Banks (0.8) (Minnesota) & #4 Mike Harkey (5.7) (Chicago Cubs)
• 1988 (GM Larry Himes) #10 Robin Ventura (56.1) over #8 Jim Abbott (19.7) (California) & #9 Ty Griffin  (Minors) (Chicago Cubs)
• 1989 (GM Larry Himes) #7 Frank Thomas (73.8) over #5 Donald Harris (-1.4) (Texas) & #6 Paul Coleman (Minors) (Saint Louis)
• 2010 (GM Kenny Williams) #13 Chris Sale (45.6) over #11 Deck McGwire (-0.2) (Toronto) & #12 Yasmani Grandal (18.4) (Cincinnati)

White Sox Got Crushed with their First Round draft pick:

• 1972 (GM Roland Hemond) #12 Mike Ondina (Minors) instead of #14 Scott McGregor (20.5 bWAR) (New York AL)
• 1977 (GM Roland Hemond) #1 Harold Baines (38.7) instead of #3 Paul Molitor (75.7) (Milwaukee) 
• 1979 (GM Roland Hemond) #9 Steve Buechele (16.5) instead of #10 Tim Wallach (38.5) (Montreal)
• 1985 (GM Roland Hemond) #5 Kurt Brown (Minors) instead of #6 Barry Bonds (162.7) (Pittsburgh)
• 1997 (GM Ron Schueler) #15 Jason Dellaero (-0.9) instead of #16 Lance Berkman (52.0) (Houston)
• 2009 (GM Kenny Williams) #23 Jared Mitchell (Minors) instead of #25 Mike Trout (74.8) (Anaheim)

Edited April 9, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[35thstreetswarm]

8 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This, plus you look at it regardless of what pick as did you pass on a player far better within one or two spots of your selection.

Criteria: Greater than 20 bWAR +/- within 2 selections of the White Sox; First Round (not including FA Compensatory Picks).

White Sox Crushed It with their First Round draft pick:

• 1987 (GM Larry Himes) #5 Jack McDowell (27.8) over #3 Willie Banks (0.8) (Minnesota) & #4 Mike Harkey (5.7) (Chicago Cubs)
• 1988 (GM Larry Himes) #10 Robin Ventura (56.1) over #8 Jim Abbott (19.7) (California) & #9 Ty Griffin  (Minors) (Chicago Cubs)
• 1989 (GM Larry Himes) #7 Frank Thomas (73.8) over #5 Donald Harris (-1.4) (Texas) & #6 Paul Coleman (Minors) (Saint Louis)
• 2010 (GM Kenny Williams) #13 Chris Sale (45.6) over #11 Deck McGwire (-0.2) (Toronto) & #12 Yasmani Grandal (18.4) (Cincinnati)

White Sox Got Crushed with their First Round draft pick:

• 1972 (GM Roland Hemond) #12 Mike Ondina (Minors) instead of #14 Scott McGregor (20.5 bWAR) (New York AL)
• 1977 (GM Roland Hemond) #1 Harold Baines (38.7) instead of #3 Paul Molitor (75.7) (Milwaukee) 
• 1979 (GM Roland Hemond) #9 Steve Buechele (16.5) instead of #10 Tim Wallach (38.5) (Montreal)
• 1985 (GM Roland Hemond) #5 Kurt Brown (Minors) instead of #6 Barry Bonds (162.7) (Pittsburgh)
• 1997 (GM Ron Schueler) #15 Jason Dellaero (-0.9) instead of #16 Lance Berkman (52.0) (Houston)
• 2009 (GM Kenny Williams) #23 Jared Mitchell (Minors) instead of #25 Mike Trout (74.8) (Anaheim)

Am I reading this right that the White Sox got "crushed" by picking hall of famer Harold Baines in the draft?

[fathom]

1 hour ago, GREEDY said:

The only remotely comparable player/pick on the list is Colon (who I think was only a college freshman) who was indeed a failure.  

KC was all set to take Sale and then switched to Colon at that last second.  They even had a press release ready for Sale.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

KC was all set to take Sale and then switched to Colon at that last second.  They even had a press release ready for Sale.

D'Backs were set to take him too but they switched to Barrett Loux.  It got the scouting director fired.  

[bmags]

As much as I would think I wouldn’t, if I was in the draft room I’d definitely yolo it right before the pick

[SonofaRoache]

54 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Am I reading this right that the White Sox got "crushed" by picking hall of famer Harold Baines in the draft?

Relatively speaking yes. The guy the passed up doubled his career WAR. 

[GREEDY]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

As much as I would think I wouldn’t, if I was in the draft room I’d definitely yolo it right before the pick

All it takes is one dose of: "You can sign good players but rarely do great players hit free agency in their prime" and you end up in crazy mode. 

Next thing you know you are scouting the local high school triple jump and reading the national inquirer article about a Middle Eastern little leaguer with 3 arms.  

[35thstreetswarm]

9 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Relatively speaking yes. The guy the passed up doubled his career WAR. 

This place is great.

[SonofaRoache]

6 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

This place is great.

Haha I couldn't care less about the argument he is making. But I just think that was his rationale since Molitor had 75 career WAR to Baines 38. 

[reiks12]

Since you guys love talking about size, Pedroias first 30 games were abysmal in both defense and offense, look it up. Jose Altuve's OPS was 700 in his first 3 seasons. Madrigal deserves more time to develop just like any other player that comes up. Eloy, Moncada, Tim, Robert have all had stretches in their first couple of years that had us pulling out our hair, yet never even seen the hate close enough to this.

Moncada had 300 strikeouts in his first 900 atbats and hit a whopping 715 OPS.  

Anderson had a 730 OPS in his first 100 games.

Paul Konerko had a 600 OPS in his first 80 games.

Are they stronger than Madrigal? Yeah I am not going to argue that at all, but Madrigal's OPS in his only 40 games played is 745. Madrigal is also surrounded by strength and conditioning coaches, theres no reason to think hes at his strength ceiling.  I would be happy with an .800 OPS from him, especially if he shores up the defense. 

On that note, going back to Pedroia, I love this scouting report during his draft year:

Quote

Dustin Pedroia, ss, Arizona State University (2004)
SCOUTING REPORT: Pedroia's tools are below-average across the board, but scouts say don't ever sell him short. He will be a big leaguer, and probably an everyday player. He's not physically gifted at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but Pedroia is a classic overachiever and possibly the best player in college baseball. He has a tireless work ethic, an exceptional sense of the game and a tremendous on-field presence. No player is as hard-nosed or competitive, and he is without peer as a team leader. He's a blood-and-guts player who thrives under pressure and makes everyone around him play better. Scouts question whether he can be an everyday shortstop on an upper-division team because his arm and range are short, but he catches almost everything hit at him. He has very sure hands, a quick release and excellent hand-eye coordination, and is adept at cheating and anticipating plays. He doesn't profile any better as a second baseman than a shortstop, because more offense is demanded at second. While he leads the Sun Devils with a .412 average and eight home runs, he doesn't have a pretty swing and is mainly a slap hitter. But he has good strike-zone judgment and is a tough out. Among current big leaguers, he compares to Angels shortstop David Eckstein. On raw tools, Pedroia is not a conventional high-round pick but he's a perfect fit for a performance-based organization like the A's, who have four of the first 40 picks.
--ALLAN SIMPSON (written May, 2004)

Thats pretty much a Madrigal scouting report. 

His defense has been really pissing me off just as much as anyone, but its not worth writing him off because of it. I am going to give him a couple of years before I grab the pitch fork and make short jokes all day.

Edited April 9, 2021 by reiks12

[Quin]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 

• 2009 (GM Kenny Williams) #23 Jared Mitchell (Minors) instead of #25 Mike Trout (74.8) (Anaheim)

To be fair, the Angels also took Randal Grichuk at #24 before Trout and Mitchell looked good (in a small sample size) before his leg exploded 

Would he have been Mike Trout? Obviously not, but if anyone could have predicted the possible GOAT at #25, he's not going 25. Mitchell very well could have had a Grichuk or better career if his leg didn't explode.

[Dominikk85]

What costs madrigal power is that he has a very passive upper body/spine in the load and his hands thus are not quite connected to the hips. 

His back is super stiff and not doing anything, he does load his hips and his hands but between that nothing happens which is why it looks stiff and unathletic. 

I put him in this video next to David Wright who did the move I'm talking about quite extreme.

 https://www.coachseye.com/v/7a25702a430642e8a1c68ba05674bff1

Wright uses rotation and side bend of the thoracic spine almost like a snake or lizard to create that front shoulder down look. This creates separation and a fluid connection of the hips and hands. 

Madrigals spine is completely dead, zero counter rotation and side bend. You Don't want to counter rotate too much as that makes the swing long but most top hitters use a bit of counter rotation and side bend in the spine so there is some "stretch" between the hips and hands while madrigal's "dead back" when he uses his hands and hips kinda independent of each other instead of together with the hips slightly moving ahead. 

Madrigal could probably add a couple mph of Exit velo just by this. 

[South Side Hit Men]

5 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Am I reading this right that the White Sox got "crushed" by picking hall of famer Harold Baines in the draft?

Molitor is a legitimate First Ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

The other, an excellent player, but a Jerry Reinsdorf & Tony La Russa Crony stained Veterans Committee sham selection.

3 hours ago, Quin said:

To be fair, the Angels also took Randal Grichuk at #24 before Trout and Mitchell looked good (in a small sample size) before his leg exploded 

Would he have been Mike Trout? Obviously not, but if anyone could have predicted the possible GOAT at #25, he's not going 25. Mitchell very well could have had a Grichuk or better career if his leg didn't explode.

Yes, the other 24 teams passed on Trout as well.

Data, analysis and scouting (depth and reach) have improved immensely from the early days.

List wasn’t posted to cast blame or celebrate Larry Himes, but rather to illustrated looking at players selected immediately before or after a draft selection is a much more rational analysis than to compare Nick Madrigal to a Number 4 overall pick from several years ago.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

It's also ridiculous to compare other draft classes because the baseball draft is not like the football or basketball drafts.  The best players aren't always taken in order because money plays such a huge role on who is taken where.  For example the Cubs took Kyle Schwarber with the 4th pick and signed him for $3.125M  while the Sox took Nick Madrigal and signed him for $6.1M. Factoring in the money spent greatly changes the calculus for those picks. 

[chitownsportsfan]

21 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

What costs madrigal power is that he has a very passive upper body/spine in the load and his hands thus are not quite connected to the hips. 

His back is super stiff and not doing anything, he does load his hips and his hands but between that nothing happens which is why it looks stiff and unathletic. 

I put him in this video next to David Wright who did the move I'm talking about quite extreme.

 https://www.coachseye.com/v/7a25702a430642e8a1c68ba05674bff1

Wright uses rotation and side bend of the thoracic spine almost like a snake or lizard to create that front shoulder down look. This creates separation and a fluid connection of the hips and hands. 

Madrigals spine is completely dead, zero counter rotation and side bend. You Don't want to counter rotate too much as that makes the swing long but most top hitters use a bit of counter rotation and side bend in the spine so there is some "stretch" between the hips and hands while madrigal's "dead back" when he uses his hands and hips kinda independent of each other instead of together with the hips slightly moving ahead. 

Madrigal could probably add a couple mph of Exit velo just by this. 

I think he long ago decided to sacrifice bat speed for bat control.  To revamp his swing and get it more hip driven (like Moncada's) at this point would probably be a death sentence.  His only hope of more power is to get strong wrist action and stronger forearms.  Great analysis I agree with everything you said about his swing.

Edited April 9, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 hours ago, Quin said:

To be fair, the Angels also took Randal Grichuk at #24 before Trout and Mitchell looked good (in a small sample size) before his leg exploded 

Would he have been Mike Trout? Obviously not, but if anyone could have predicted the possible GOAT at #25, he's not going 25. Mitchell very well could have had a Grichuk or better career if his leg didn't explode.

 

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Molitor is a legitimate First Ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

The other, an excellent player, but a Jerry Reinsdorf & Tony La Russa Crony stained Veterans Committee sham selection.

Yes, the other 24 teams passed on Trout as well.

Data, analysis and scouting (depth and reach) have improved immensely from the early days.

List wasn’t posted to cast blame or celebrate Larry Himes, but rather to illustrated looking at players selected immediately before or after a draft selection is a much more rational analysis than to compare Nick Madrigal to a Number 4 overall pick from several years ago.

Scouting has not changed in the way that would have changed how Trout was seen imo. Kids today still suffer because they're northern kids, although not as badly as Trout (showcases continuing to grow has helped) but it was very obvious that Mike Trout was the best high school player in the country but people questioned his competition.

Edited April 10, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[oldsox]

7 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

(

•  
•  #15 Jason Dellaero
•  

There's a name I forgot all about.

[RagahRagah]

8 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I know the fact that this is a false equivalence was already addressed, but also... where were you?? TA was loathed by many as recently as early 2019. The criticisms of him were so over the top and annoying in 2018 that at one point I just stopped defending him because nobody would actually listen

Weird how I don't remember that, just the hate for Nick and Yoan.

[Jerksticks]

9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They missed the second they took a no ceiling 2B only with the 4th pick.  They wasted a rare opportunity to draft a high ceiling superstar for an avg run of the mill player.

I get your point but you’re misunderstanding the term “ceiling”.  
 

Nick doesn’t have a high floor.  His floor is “total dogshit, unplayable weak-hitting, poor defender who can’t even maintain useful BA/OBP with zero power”.  That’s his floor because it’s actually an outcome with pretty decent odds.  
 

His ceiling is one of the most valuable players in baseball, hitting mid to high 300s with OBPs easily around 400, and a special ability to find holes and gaps.  
 

The Sox drafted him at #4 because he actually has a decent shot of hitting this enormous ceiling.  
 

The Sox put their massive team balls on the table when they drafted him.  It’s not the safe “floor” pick that people often misrepresent.