Dane Dunning Thread

[CentralChamps21]

This trade should be evaluated based on how Dunning was projected to perform when the trade was made, not how he actually performed. I'm guessing not many poker players here because thinking that going all in with A-7 offset is a great idea because you won big with it once is a great way to lose a lot of money fast. Another way to look at it if you never lose a trade you aren't being nearly aggressive enough in making deals.

[35thstreetswarm]

17 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

This trade should be evaluated based on how Dunning was projected to perform when the trade was made, not how he actually performed. I'm guessing not many poker players here because thinking that going all in with A-7 offset is a great idea because you won big with it once is a great way to lose a lot of money fast. Another way to look at it if you never lose a trade you aren't being nearly aggressive enough in making deals.

I like assuming I'm correct about something at the time I form the opinion then disregarding all subsequent evidence disproving my conclusion as anomalous and unforeseeable.

[CentralChamps21]

11 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I like assuming I'm correct about something at the time I form the opinion then disregarding all subsequent evidence disproving my conclusion as anomalous and unforeseeable.

I'm not saying there aren't really bad trades made, but guys under and overperform in unforeseeable ways all the time.

[ptatc]

17 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

This trade should be evaluated based on how Dunning was projected to perform when the trade was made, not how he actually performed. I'm guessing not many poker players here because thinking that going all in with A-7 offset is a great idea because you won big with it once is a great way to lose a lot of money fast. Another way to look at it if you never lose a trade you aren't being nearly aggressive enough in making deals.

This is very subjective though. What the sox people thought and what the Texas people thought could be 2 very different things. And we will never know what anyone actually truly thought about him as its never made public. So essentially by your definition, trades can't be evaluated. 

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is very subjective though. What the sox people thought and what the Texas people thought could be 2 very different things. And we will never know what anyone actually truly thought about him as its never made public. So essentially by your definition, trades can't be evaluated. 

Well, and this trade was made for two different reasons.  The Sox made it to get the best guy in 2021.  The Rangers made it to get six years of Dunning.  I don't think either though Dunning was going to be a better player, but that getting six years of Dunning made more sense for where they are today.

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Well, and this trade was made for two different reasons.  The Sox made it to get the best guy in 2021.  The Rangers made it to get six years of Dunning.  I don't think either though Dunning was going to be a better player, but that getting six years of Dunning made more sense for where they are today.

Yes, nobody could have conceived how good Chris Bassitt would be in 2021 when that trade was made.  Montas was the one with the much higher ceiling. 

[Dominikk85]

I still like the trade. Sure war vs war the sox likely will lose him but they got an absolute horse who dominates and - which is also important goes 7+ all the time compared to dunning who at least at this point is a twice through the lineup guy which means the sox shaky pen would have had another day where they had to come out after 5 or even in the 5th.

The sox simply traded depth for quality even though dunning looks pretty solid too. 

Great trade for Texas too as it lines up better with their next window. 

 

Trade made sense for both teams. 

Steele walker has a strange season over there too. Very low K rate (11%) and solid power (223 ISO and 6 homers) but still only a 233 average with a 212 babip. 

 

That is probably a bit bad luck but also very high pop up rate, fly ball rate and pull rate, so it seems he is going full bore "launch angle" to maximize power which is eating into his babip. 

Still an 11% walk rate with a 223 ISO isn't a bad combination, maybe he can become like a second division regular or at least a long side Platoon guy for texas

[ron883]

On 6/9/2021 at 1:23 PM, caulfield12 said:

Yes, nobody could have conceived how good Chris Bassitt would be in 2021 when that trade was made.  Montas was the one with the much higher ceiling. 

I knew he would be good. Then again, I'm simply a superior baseball mind than you are. 

Edited June 11, 2021 by ron883

[chitownsportsfan]

He's getting hit pretty hard this year, avg exit velocity of almost 90 but he's keeping the ball in the park for the most part.  Not sure that's a repeatable skill for most pitchers but we'll see if he can keep it over his career.  Still a very small sample size of MLB innings.  It's a good trade for both teams so far.  The Rangers will probably "win" on a WAR basis by 2026 or something but that doesn't really matter when the Sox are positioned to have a dominant Lynn as the game 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs this year.

[caulfield12]

22 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He's getting hit pretty hard this year, avg exit velocity of almost 90 but he's keeping the ball in the park for the most part.  Not sure that's a repeatable skill for most pitchers but we'll see if he can keep it over his career.  Still a very small sample size of MLB innings.  It's a good trade for both teams so far.  The Rangers will probably "win" on a WAR basis by 2026 or something but that doesn't really matter when the Sox are positioned to have a dominant Lynn as the game 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs this year.

Would have to know the #5 starter for the next five seasons vs. Dunning.  With Lynn's current numbers and age, hard to imagine finding common ground on an extension.  Same with Rodin/Boras Corp. Would never tell wrong year to lose the WORLD/comp pick system, since we desperately need to start restocking the farm system. 

[South Side Hit Men]

On 6/12/2021 at 11:37 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

He's getting hit pretty hard this year, avg exit velocity of almost 90 but he's keeping the ball in the park for the most part.  Not sure that's a repeatable skill for most pitchers but we'll see if he can keep it over his career.  Still a very small sample size of MLB innings.  It's a good trade for both teams so far.  The Rangers will probably "win" on a WAR basis by 2026 or something but that doesn't really matter when the Sox are positioned to have a dominant Lynn as the game 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs this year.

It'll likely be 2022 or 2023 the latest. Lynn is up 0.6 fWAR (2.0 vs. 1.4) YTD.

Not saying it was a bad acquisition, just that people are underestimating Dunning's season at this point. Dunning has a higher fWAR than Lucas (1.1) or Keuchel (0.5), and is within 0.4 of Cease.

Edited June 14, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Jerksticks]

Still can’t believe we got Lynn for Dunning.  What a steal. 
 

Dodged a HUGE bullet not having to labor through Dunning starts every 5 days.  That dude has no place on a contending team this year. 

[ptatc]

On 6/9/2021 at 1:23 PM, caulfield12 said:

Yes, nobody could have conceived how good Chris Bassitt would be in 2021 when that trade was made.  Montas was the one with the much higher ceiling. 

I said at the time that Bassitt was going to be the player that they would regret trading. You could see his pitchability.