The Yermin-Vaughn-Abreu Conundrum

[South Side Hit Men]

Just now, joesaiditstrue said:

dude, everyone who's hot and hitting everything looks like they have the best eye and the fastest bat, until the league adjusts

way too premature to start calling him legit

This, plus there is no "conundrum", good teams have more than 6 or 7 hitters that are solid, 10-13 make you a solid contender with depth.

You can't worry about 2022 until you see how this season plays out. For this year I would do the following:

• Catcher: Grandal 3 of 5; Collins 1 of 5; Mercedes 1 of 5.
• Outfield: Vaughn goes to AAA to play everyday LF for 4-6 weeks when Engel returns. Eaton Robert Engel OF w/o Vaugh, four OF rotation upon Vaughn's return. Eaton really should play LF when Vaughn isn't, but Tony / Hahn doesn't have the balls or sense to do it.
• Designated Hitters: Primarily the catchers to start, mix in part of the four OFers once they are in place, Eloy is the primary upon his return this year and beyond.
• Bench: Garcia is OF and 3B only; Mendick is 2B and SS only (emergency 3B).
• 2022: Upgrade bench, Cespedes up to replace a FA Eaton, sign a starting 2B if Madrigal doesn't make it as a starter.

[ron883]

26 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This, plus there is no "conundrum", good teams have more than 6 or 7 hitters that are solid, 10-13 make you a solid contender with depth.

You can't worry about 2022 until you see how this season plays out. For this year I would do the following:

• Catcher: Grandal 3 of 5; Collins 1 of 5; Mercedes 1 of 5.
• Outfield: Vaughn goes to AAA to play everyday LF for 4-6 weeks when Engel returns. Eaton Robert Engel OF w/o Vaugh, four OF rotation upon Vaughn's return. Eaton really should play LF when Vaughn isn't, but Tony / Hahn doesn't have the balls or sense to do it.
• Designated Hitters: Primarily the catchers to start, mix in part of the four OFers once they are in place, Eloy is the primary upon his return this year and beyond.
• Bench: Garcia is OF and 3B only; Mendick is 2B and SS only (emergency 3B).
• 2022: Upgrade bench, Cespedes up to replace a FA Eaton, sign a starting 2B if Madrigal doesn't make it as a starter.

It ain't happening bruh. There's a reason it hasn't happened yet. Yermdawg is only the emergency catcher. 

Edited April 9, 2021 by ron883

[caulfield12]

47 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This, plus there is no "conundrum", good teams have more than 6 or 7 hitters that are solid, 10-13 make you a solid contender with depth.

You can't worry about 2022 until you see how this season plays out. For this year I would do the following:

• Catcher: Grandal 3 of 5; Collins 1 of 5; Mercedes 1 of 5.
• Outfield: Vaughn goes to AAA to play everyday LF for 4-6 weeks when Engel returns. Eaton Robert Engel OF w/o Vaugh, four OF rotation upon Vaughn's return. Eaton really should play LF when Vaughn isn't, but Tony / Hahn doesn't have the balls or sense to do it.
• Designated Hitters: Primarily the catchers to start, mix in part of the four OFers once they are in place, Eloy is the primary upon his return this year and beyond.
• Bench: Garcia is OF and 3B only; Mendick is 2B and SS only (emergency 3B).
• 2022: Upgrade bench, Cespedes up to replace a FA Eaton, sign a starting 2B if Madrigal doesn't make it as a starter.

Cespedes is really something of a long shot to count on despite the headlines.  He's a name and potential, not unlike Adolfo. 

[Jerksticks]

We are not trading Eloy.  Mercy.  Part of me now has no problem rolling with an outfield/DH of Robert, Vaughn, Eloy & Yermin.  
 

Can’t believe I’m okay with that but who cares when we’re scoring 19 runs a game and have all ace pitchers and a lockdown bullpen.  
 

Oh no Vaughn misplayed that one!  Guess we’ll have to score 9 runs again next inning ?

[Jerksticks]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Cespedes is really something of a long shot to count on despite the headlines.  He's a name and potential, not unlike Adolfo. 

Wait until this minor league season reveals the ridiculous depth of prospects we have brewing with nowhere to play.  Trade for DeGrom?  Sure.  

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

It ain't happening bruh. There's a reason it hasn't happened yet. Yermdawg is only the emergency catcher. 

I agree, La Russa is unlikely to try it, that is why I phrased it "what I would do", versus saying what will (Keuchel / Grandal in decline phase / overpaying in terms of $s and length of contract) or will not happen (Grandal will not start 120 games at catcher in a regular season ever again).

Doesn't mean it shouldn't happen. Mercedes has a great arm, can work with a regular pitcher and gain mutual comfort.

Both public projection systems are down on Vaughn, as is La Russa, so that may be his best path, Vaughn failing. Abreu is most likely staying and productive beyond 2022, and Eloy is here to stay.

Projected OPS (Blended rate and player) (BP / PECOTA, Fangraphs Depth Charts (Zips + Steamer)

• .823 Abreu .819 / .826 <= Likely here through at least through 2023-2024
• .820 Jimenez .746 / .873 <= Not Going Anywhere until at least 2025
• .772 Moncada .761 / .783
• .771 Grandal .757 / .786  <= Not Gone until 2024
• .763 Anderson .745 / .780
• .761 Robert .726 / .795
• .759 Mercedes .796 / .721 <= My Guy to give a legitimate shot at Backup
• .746 Madrigal .757 / .735
• .735 Eaton .722 / .748 <= Hopefully Tony doesn't sign him for 2-3 more years
• .679 Collins .670 / .688 <= Tony's Guy at Backup
• .655 Engel .655 / .655 <= Both systems hate Adam Engel, I think he outperforms this big time
• .642 Vaughn .624 / .659 <= Both systems hate Andrew Vaughn, at least to start his career

@caulfield12 If Cespedes not up, they should sign a new RFer, not keep Tony's pet Eaton around. He's had a good week, but that doesn't mean he'll stay healthy and productive for multiple years. Engel can prove he can handle more playing time with regular playing time this year, he seemed to turn the corner. 

Edited April 9, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/andrew-vaughn-not-a-white-sox-lineup-regular-yet

[caulfield12]

Yermin Mercedes Is The Feel-Good Story Of The 40-Man Roster Deadline

It’s easy to be happy for all 108 players, but if you want to pick a player to be especially happy for, celebrate White Sox catcher Yermin Mercedes’s addition to the 40-man roster.

Mercedes spent three years in the Dominican Summer League with the Nationals before being released before the 2014 season. If he wasn't a catcher, that likely would have been the end of the story. But because he was a catcher, he'd been brought over to the States for spring training before he was released. (Teams always need large numbers of catchers to catch bullpens at camp). Because he was in the States and had a visa, he was able to latch on to play in the independent Pecos League. The Pecos League is the independent league for baseball lifers. Travel is rough. Pay is absolutely minimal. The hope in the Pecos League is to be signed to a higher-level independent league where there are better facilities and better pay.

Mercedes did well enough in the Pecos League to jump to the United League by the end of the season, where he played six games for former MLB manager Doc Edwards and the San Angelo Colts. The United League folded at the end of that season, but Mercedes by that point had caught the eye of the Orioles.

Baltimore signed him and sent him to low Class A Delmarva. He showed a solid bat with Delmarva in 2015, but was sent back there for the 2016 season as well. He finally hit his way out of low Class A by hitting .345/.404/.570 between Delmarva and high Class A Frederick in 2016.

Mercedes finally made it to Double-A at the tail end of 2017. When the season ended, he’d spent seven seasons in minor league baseball. He’d played 12 games above Class A. And once again he was reminded that he wasn’t really all the wanted.

The Orioles could have protected him from the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft by making him one of the 38 players they place on their Triple-A roster. They put him on the Double-A roster instead, which was a declaration that there were 78 other players they would rather protect.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/yermin-mercedes-is-the-feel-good-story-of-the-40-man-roster-deadline/

 

https://theathletic.com/2501783/2021/04/06/rosenthal-yermin-mercedes-long-road-to-the-majors-ronald-acunas-adjustments-more-notes/

[CentralChamps21]

7 hours ago, ron883 said:

Gordon's swing was much longer than Yermin's. I'm confident Yermin will keep this up. 

Yermin has the ability to swing late to get the bat on a quality 2-strike pitch, very similar to Madrigal, but obviously with far more power.

Until Eloy is back, Yermin and Vaughn can both get plenty of at bats, with Vaughn playing LF some and spelling Abreu at 1B some.

[Quin]

- Gordon was going to be a future MVP according to every baseball analyst in the universe.

- Ron was all aboard Madrigal's "Little Magician" train until he wasn't.

- Luis Robert looked like a baseball god until the league adjusted, now it's on him to adjust.

The conundrum right now is this: TLR is being a numb skull and not playing Vaughn in LF. Once that's solved, do this until Eloy is back:

LF - Vaughn
DH - Yermin
1B - Abreu

Collins gets regular at-bats backing up 1B, DH, and Catcher.

There's no guarantee everyone is healthy come August when Eloy returns, everyone is hitting, etc. At worst, you add Eloy's and drop ... Jake Lamb?

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

- Gordon was going to be a future MVP according to every baseball analyst in the universe.

- Ron was all aboard Madrigal's "Little Magician" train until he wasn't.

- Luis Robert looked like a baseball god until the league adjusted, now it's on him to adjust.

The conundrum right now is this: TLR is being a numb skull and not playing Vaughn in LF. Once that's solved, do this until Eloy is back:

LF - Vaughn
DH - Yermin
1B - Abreu

Collins gets regular at-bats backing up 1B, DH, and Catcher.

There's no guarantee everyone is healthy come August when Eloy returns, everyone is hitting, etc. At worst, you add Eloy's and drop ... Jake Lamb?

Wonder how much of this is about not signing an extension?

Obviously Hahn always referred to him as part of the core when referencing future Sox teams...a bit harsh to blame his having to learn defense on the fly and make adjustments when that’s the whole point of his being up in the first place. 

[ron883]

14 minutes ago, Quin said:

- Gordon was going to be a future MVP according to every baseball analyst in the universe.

- Ron was all aboard Madrigal's "Little Magician" train until he wasn't.

- Luis Robert looked like a baseball god until the league adjusted, now it's on him to adjust.

The conundrum right now is this: TLR is being a numb skull and not playing Vaughn in LF. Once that's solved, do this until Eloy is back:

LF - Vaughn
DH - Yermin
1B - Abreu

Collins gets regular at-bats backing up 1B, DH, and Catcher.

There's no guarantee everyone is healthy come August when Eloy returns, everyone is hitting, etc. At worst, you add Eloy's and drop ... Jake Lamb?

Giving somebody a nickname =\= proclaiming they will be good. 

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Wonder how much of this is about not signing an extension?

Obviously Hahn always referred to him as part of the core when referencing future Sox teams...a bit harsh to blame his having to learn defense on the fly and make adjustments when that’s the whole point of his being up in the first place. 

I think it's less that and more TLR is stuck in the past when young players were way less heralded. You think La Russa is gonna let a dude go from A Ball (nevermind there was a whole season lost to a fucking pandemic) to a position he hasn't played and actually gain rhythm at the plate? Nah, that's not Tony's style.

I'd honestly have more confidence in Ricky in bringing Vaughn along in LF. Constructing a lineup in general, no. 

[SonofaRoache]

There is no issue. Vaughn isn't in Beast mode yet and Yermin has hit well for a week. If things go according to plan we can begin to think about a conundrum in August. 

[South Side Hit Men]

30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Wonder how much of this is about not signing an extension?

Obviously Hahn always referred to him as part of the core when referencing future Sox teams...a bit harsh to blame his having to learn defense on the fly and make adjustments when that’s the whole point of his being up in the first place. 

It's not. It's more about Tony preferring players he remembers or likes (Lynn, Eaton, Hendriks, Keuchel, Grandal, and sadly David Eckstein's mini me Nick Madrigal), and closer to would be grand-children ages vs. those teetering closer to great grandchild's age.

In terms of Vaughn, it only adds to his value. Your pretty limited in baseball if you are young, just starting in the majors and can't play the field beyond possibly first. Sadly, that is where Eloy has been, both physically and performance wise, during the one full seasons of games he attempted. He's not passing Abreu or Eloy anytime soon. He currently is behind Mercedes, and sadly also behind AAA/Waiver Claim bait Nick Williams in Tony's mind, at least for yesterday.

Strange days indeed.

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[JoshPR]

10 hours ago, ron883 said:

Sooo, it appears that Yermin is legitimate. "But Ron, it's too early to declare Yermin legitimate." Wrong. I've been on the Yermin bandwagon as long as anybody. I was one of the first to identify his talents. He is here to stay. He has a great approach, he shortens his swing with 2 strikes but still crushes the ball, and he has a fast bat. The dude is going to stay. 

When Eloy comes back, there will be a bit if a logjam. Assuming Eloy is back next year, what do the Sox do? Abreu will be under contract for another year, and likely will get resigned. Do the Sox use Vaughn as a trade chip? They could attempt to trot out Eloy-Robert-Vaughn in the OF. The lineup would be absolutely ridiculous, but the defense would suffer. Imagine this lineup though...

Timmy

Moncada

Abreu

Eloy

Vaughn

Yermin

Grandal/Collins

Robert

Madrigal

Obviously you can change it around. Very right handed heavy, but lefties would get absolutely demolished. Maybe the Sox flip Vaughn I'm a trade for a lefty OF or pitcher? Who knows. Ideas?

1 why would Eloy not be back

2. Where is everyone playing

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 hours ago, ron883 said:

Deal ? No need to get crazy with the money. 

Have any specific stat in mind? I'm fine with using OPS, or we can use something more advanced. 

Help us set the terms fellow Soxtalkians

 

I think you should set an over and under on some basic hitting categories like batting average , OBP, SLG.  like .300. 400. 500c( as an example) and each side picks the over or under , you can set up an odd amount of categories. I used 3  so that whoever picks right in 2 of the 3 categories wins. The hard part will be setting the over and under at something you both can agree on and then actually choosing opposing views. Maybe you can pick 5 categories for the over and under and when you can agree on whats a good line for 3 of them use those 3. Set a date when the bet concludes such as the end of the season and have a minimum amount of AB set . All bets are off if those AB's are not met.

@ron883 and @joesaiditstrue DM me and we can work on it . Let's start off with the number of Ab's required ? How does 350 sound for the whole season to you?

Then each of you message me about what you think an expected range of BA, OBO and SLG will be  for those 350 AB's. such as BA .250-.275, .260-285, .270- 295, .280 -.305 . Keep the range  .025 apart. But also give me a final number such as . 275 .Do the same thing with OBP and SLG.  Give me your best guess in each category . I will then select some number between both your numbers for each category to try to establish an over and under you can both agree on. If this proves too difficult work it out amongst yourselves and let us all know so we can play along.

Edited April 9, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ScootsMcGoots]

9 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This, plus there is no "conundrum", good teams have more than 6 or 7 hitters that are solid, 10-13 make you a solid contender with depth.

You can't worry about 2022 until you see how this season plays out. For this year I would do the following:

• Catcher: Grandal 3 of 5; Collins 1 of 5; Mercedes 1 of 5.
• Outfield: Vaughn goes to AAA to play everyday LF for 4-6 weeks when Engel returns. Eaton Robert Engel OF w/o Vaugh, four OF rotation upon Vaughn's return. Eaton really should play LF when Vaughn isn't, but Tony / Hahn doesn't have the balls or sense to do it.
• Designated Hitters: Primarily the catchers to start, mix in part of the four OFers once they are in place, Eloy is the primary upon his return this year and beyond.
• Bench: Garcia is OF and 3B only; Mendick is 2B and SS only (emergency 3B).
• 2022: Upgrade bench, Cespedes up to replace a FA Eaton, sign a starting 2B if Madrigal doesn't make it as a starter.

Mendick looked really good last night. He keeps this up, he should have a spot on the roster for the rest of the season. If anything, for his defense. 

[tray]

 

Yermin:  Something that looks like it is too good to be true probably isn't.  Is that the case with what we are seeing from Yermin?  Has Yermin  ever hit baseballs 485 feet and pounded out hits at a .500 clip before...at any level?   If so, how did he  fly under the radar of mlb scouts?   If Yermin can hit anything like he has, he is the Sox DH, at least for this season.

Vaughn: It's too early to tell if he will be all he was cracked up to be.  He has power, but can he also hit for a decent average against major league pitching? Will he make the adjustments necessary after he gets scouted and pitchers try to exploit any holes in his swing?   Defensively, he can handle 1B but that is it. Not sure there will be a place for him on the roster if things continue so positively for Yerminator and Collins.  Vaughn would have to do what those two guys  did  to get regular playing time - prove he deserves it.

Left field : Whatever and whoever until Engel returns.  I am holding out some hope that Eloy makes it back before the end of the season. That would be an incredible boost to the team.

Madrigal: I think he has not fully recovered from Left shoulder surgery.  Ptac would know better as a pro trainer about how long it takes to build back muscle  after that operation and whether muscle memory can be impacted.  I think he will work out if the Sox have patience with him .

Edited April 9, 2021 by tray

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, ron883 said:

Giving somebody a nickname =\= proclaiming they will be good. 

Correct - see “HoT fIrE” as an example

[Polar Bear]

Some of you all are laughable 

1. Eloy isn't going anywhere for a very long time

2. Vaughn isn't going anywhere for a long time 

3. Madrigal isn't going anywhere for a long time

4. Mercedes is great but can he sustain it for more than 1 year (we are only at 1 week)

 

[ron883]

13 minutes ago, Moncada said:

Some of you all are laughable 

1. Eloy isn't going anywhere for a very long time

2. Vaughn isn't going anywhere for a long time 

3. Madrigal isn't going anywhere for a long time

4. Mercedes is great but can he sustain it for more than 1 year (we are only at 1 week)

 

Nick Madrigal plays like crap during his tenure with the Sox (and shows how mediocre most of his tools are) - "He's here to stay for a long time!"

Yermin has a historically good start to his tenure with the Sox - "Eh, who knows if the guy will be good?"

[Sambuca]

The last thing I would call this is a problem.

When has the White Sox organization ever had too many good players? 

If every player in this thread is good enough at the same time to force some tough decisions, we are in a very good position and probably a WS favorite.

We cannot possibly go from worrying about having zero depth to worrying about having too many good players in a few days span.  We sound insane.

[VAfan]

14 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Mendick looked really good last night. He keeps this up, he should have a spot on the roster for the rest of the season. If anything, for his defense. 

No. Mendick got 114 plate appearances last year. .243/281/343 was his line. He's may have a game or two where he looks like he can hit. Don't let it deceive you. He can't. That's why the Sox picked up Lamb, because they didn't want Mendick subbing for Moncada when he needs a break. Mendick is the guy you bring up when someone goes on the IL, and even then you hope you don't have to play him too much.

[tray]

485 feet.  That's not a fluke.  That is not small sample size. That is not something an average major league hitter can do, even when he has a historically good week.  And to do it in a Home Opener?  That's clutch hitting for the team, for the fans and for the owner - one of those baseball memories that will stay with Sox fans for a long time.

 

Edited April 10, 2021 by tray