The Yermin-Vaughn-Abreu Conundrum

["The Kids Can Play"]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Mendick would be his replacement and could likely match his WAR production.  He’s pretty clearly a better defensive player than Madrigal.

I'm not convinced Mendick is better defensively. He sure the hell isn't a better hitter. If Madrigal bats 2nd, we don't need him for power. We need him for hits, making contact, moving runners along, OBP. 

I'm not saying Madrigal couldn't be traded. I'm just saying Hahn likely isn't going to trade him when he took him so high in the draft.  

 

[fathom]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People said this last year and then Mendick got exposed with regular playing time.  I like Danny but he’s going to provide less overall offensive value despite his superior power and less base-running value given his lack of speed.  I also think people are still overreacting to a handle of dumb plays Nick has made and I’m not yet convinced Mendick is that much better of a defender at 2B.

Understood, but no reason to think Mendick couldn’t be a 2 WAR player.   That’s basically what Madrigal is.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

58 minutes ago, Paulie4Pres said:

I'm not. Do you have an example of a center fielder being worn out at the end of a season? This guy isn't sprinting around the field the entire game, every game. If a 23 year old, world class athlete is getting worn out from playing center field, something is very wrong.

I have an example of a guy who can't stay healthy running around. Oh yea it's Luis Robert. Pretty funny how you ignore all the running that comes from hitting and stealing bases.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

Understood, but no reason to think Mendick couldn’t be a 2 WAR player.   That’s basically what Madrigal is.

I honestly think Madrigal will end up being closer to a 3 win player and Mendick would be closer to a 1.5 win guy with regular playing time.  I’m not suggesting that I wouldn’t be open to trading Madrigal (I was 100% in favor of the rumored Burnes trade), but I really don’t see Mendick as being a good long-term option.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, "The Kids Can Play" said:

Nobody here is expecting Vaughn and Robert to be super human, you are exaggerating things. We do expect them to be all stars. 

I'm not exaggerating at all. 2 of the best speed 5 tools guys in baseball Buxton and Robert can't stay healthy and you want Robert to do even more than he has been doing. Having Vaughn and Eloy both in corners with Robert in CF is not the kind of defensive OF i want in the playoffs or long term. What you are expecting from Robert is the exaggeration especially after the injury.

["The Kids Can Play"]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not exaggerating at all. 2 of the best speed 5 tools guys in baseball Buxton and Robert can't stay healthy and you want Robert to do even more than he has been doing. Having Vaughn and Eloy both in corners with Robert in CF is not the kind of defensive OF i want in the playoffs or long term. What you are expecting from Robert is the exaggeration especially after the injury.

I get your point. Is it ideal? No! However if we can score over 5 runs a game right now which is #1 in MLB, then imagine next year when Vaughn becomes the power hitter everyone expects and Eloy returns to the same power numbers, how explosive this lineup will be? Vaughn look very good in left so far and probably could handle right and Eloy although not that good could handle left. I agree ideally Eloy is DH period. But unless Yermin learns to be a quality catcher, we don't have many choices. 

Btw, Robert's injury had nothing to do with playing OF.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People said this last year and then Mendick got exposed with regular playing time.  I like Danny but he’s going to provide less overall offensive value despite his superior power and less base-running value given his lack of speed.  I also think people are still overreacting to a handle of dumb plays Nick has made and I’m not yet convinced Mendick is that much better of a defender at 2B.

Mendick is in the same boat as Leury Garcia.  They are best when being plugged into solid situations a few times a week to give guys breaks.  He's someone who won't hurt you, and will occasionally will help you.  He is going to be a guy who plays a decade of MLB catching on as a primary defender off of team's benches.  Think of what Gordon Beckham turned into.

[Bob Sacamano]

55 minutes ago, "The Kids Can Play" said:

I get your point. Is it ideal? No! However if we can score over 5 runs a game right now which is #1 in MLB, then imagine next year when Vaughn becomes the power hitter everyone expects and Eloy returns to the same power numbers, how explosive this lineup will be? Vaughn look very good in left so far and probably could handle right and Eloy although not that good could handle left. I agree ideally Eloy is DH period. But unless Yermin learns to be a quality catcher, we don't have many choices. 

Btw, Robert's injury had nothing to do with playing OF.

Having to cover that much ground long-term could lead to pulls and shit. Robert's injury still had to with his legs.

Hopefully DH is universal so it opens up 15 more jobs for a possible Yermin trade.

Edited May 12, 2021 by manbearpuig

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, "The Kids Can Play" said:

I get your point. Is it ideal? No! However if we can score over 5 runs a game right now which is #1 in MLB, then imagine next year when Vaughn becomes the power hitter everyone expects and Eloy returns to the same power numbers, how explosive this lineup will be? Vaughn look very good in left so far and probably could handle right and Eloy although not that good could handle left. I agree ideally Eloy is DH period. But unless Yermin learns to be a quality catcher, we don't have many choices. 

Btw, Robert's injury had nothing to do with playing OF.

I understand Vaughn passes the eye test because he hasn't botched anything yet. The way Statcast and Baseball Savant grades OFers is using a 5 Star system that uses Outs Above Average . For the sake of a shorter explanation I'll ignore the 1 and 5 star catches since the majority of OF are not going to catch a lot of 5 Star opportunities  while most will catch 1 Star opportunities.

Eloy for his career is a -14 and ranks 258th among OFers with at least 100 opportunities to make 1-5 Star Catches (OAA). In 3 Star Catches he has caught 7 of 19 or 36.8 % playing only LF . For context I'll use Leury Garcia and Adam Engel , 2 OFers with greater speed and jumps. Engel has caught 44 of 47 3 Star opportunities for a whooping 93.6 % and a Career OAA + 48  . He is ranked 8th among all OFers in OAA with at least 100 opportunities.

Leury Garcia is 22 for 28 in 3 Star catches 78.6 %. His Career OAA is 0 . His rank among those OFers with 100 opportunities is 144th .

It's too early to say how Vaughn would eventually grade out as an OF because he is far from having 100 opportunities. For Vaughn I had to lower the amount of Opportunities to 25 so his overall rank will include a lot more OF's than those with 100 opportunities. He has had 1 opportunity to make a 3 Star catch and did not make it . He has had 1 chance to make a 2 star catch and made it. 2 chances to make 1 Star catch and made them both.  His rank among OF's with between 25-49 chances is 268th. Even when his chance to make these types of catches increases he wont become better he will become worse because of his lack of speed. His OAA is -2.

I know Buxton's latest injury and Robert's were both the same kind of injuries (hip flexors) while sprinting to 1st base but telling me they didn't happen playing the OF is splitting hairs. You sprint playing OF and you sprint running the bases. It could have happened doing either.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability?type=player&min=25&year=ALL&total=5 

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

["The Kids Can Play"]

2 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Having to cover that much ground long-term could lead to pulls and shit. Robert's injury still had to with his legs.

Hopefully DH is universal so it opens up 15 more jobs for a possible Yermin trade.

If Yermin finishes the year huge, and Hahn can get something too good to pass up in a trade, then of course I would be in favor of that. I do agree Eloy belongs DH. Even with Eloy at DH we still need another OF who can hit.

["The Kids Can Play"]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I understand Vaughn passes the eye test because he hasn't botched anything yet. The way Statcast and Baseball Savant grades OF is using a 5 Star system that uses Outs Above Average . For the sake of a shorter explanation I'll ignore the 1 and 5 star catches since the majority of OF are not going to catch a lot of 5 Star opportunities  while most will catch 1 Star opportunities.

Eloy for his career is a -14 and ranks 258th among OF with at least 100 opportunities to make 1-5 Star Catches (OAA). In 3 Star Catches he has caught 7 of 19 or 36.8 % playing only LF . For context I'll use Leury Garcia and Adam Engel , 2 OF's with greater speed and jumps. Engel has caught 44 of 47 3 Star opportunities for a whooping 93.6 %and a Career OAA + 48 OAA . He is ranked 8th among all OF's in OAA with at least 100 opportunities.

Leury Garcia is 22 for 28 in 3 Star catches 78.6 %. His Career OAA is 0 . His rank among those OFs with 100 opportunities is 144th .

It's too early to say how Vaughn would eventually grade out as an OF because he is far from having 100 opportunities to make 1-5 Star Catches which is different than his overall number of chances. For Vaughn I had to lower the amount of Opportunities to 25 so his overall rank will include a lot more OF's than those with 100 opportunities. He has had 1 opportunity to make a 3 Star catch and did not make it . He has had 1 chance to make a 2 star catch and made it. 2 chances to make 1 Star catch and made them both.  His rank among OF's with between 25-49 chances is 268th. Even when his chance to make these types of catches increases he wont become better he will become worse because of his lack of speed. His OAA is -2.

I know Buxton's latest injury and Robert's were both the same kind of injuries (hip flexors) while sprinting to 1st base but telling me they didn't happen playing the OF is splitting hairs. You sprint playing OF and you sprint running the bases. It could have happened doing either.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability?type=player&min=25&year=ALL&total=5 

 

I think we are debating two different things. Let's be clear, I don't disagree with you that Eloy sucks as an OF. I know Vaughn is still new at it and maybe its not his future position. Ideally I want Robert to play just his CF portion. All I am saying is, if you have two huge bats like potentially Vaughn and Eloy will be, then I think Hahn and manager will want them in the lineup. Of course you can have Engel there and it improves immensely, but then you get weak inconsistent hitting. 

Btw, Robert's hip flexor injury is obviously from sprinting. However it also might have been caused from a lack of proper stretching or flexibility than sprinting. There are tons of fast sprinting outfielders in MLB who never have that injury. 

[pcq]

FWF. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, "The Kids Can Play" said:

I think we are debating two different things. Let's be clear, I don't disagree with you that Eloy sucks as an OF. I know Vaughn is still new at it and maybe its not his future position. Ideally I want Robert to play just his CF portion. All I am saying is, if you have two huge bats like potentially Vaughn and Eloy will be, then I think Hahn and manager will want them in the lineup. Of course you can have Engel there and it improves immensely, but then you get weak inconsistent hitting. 

Btw, Robert's hip flexor injury is obviously from sprinting. However it also might have been caused from a lack of proper stretching or flexibility than sprinting. There are tons of fast sprinting outfielders in MLB who never have that injury. 

Right now there is a long way to go before we have to worry about who sits between Yermin, Vaughn , Eloy and Robert when Eloy and Robert return. 1st off in your scenario who plays RF and who plays LF ? Either Vaughn or Eloy will have to change positions. Eloy doesn't have the arm for RF and has never played there except when he was possibly 25 lbs lighter in the minors. Vaughn has never played RF .

So many scenarios can develop between now and then and we will certainly get a more accurate reading on Vaughn's defense by then. We have to see how Engel hits when he gets back. Will Yermin and Vaughn keep hitting ? How will Robert look when he returns .No need to argue about it any more now. Let's let it play out and see.

I still don't get your point about the injury being caused by a proper lack of stretching or conditioning rather than sprinting. He has to sprint in the OF and on the bases . That type of injury is likely to happen from sprinting.It is more likely to happen if you are poorly conditioned.  You are not going to get a major injuring from jogging if your flexibility is affected by poor conditioning or stretching. Those injuries happen when you are giving max effort .

[beautox]

I going to look at the blue sky scenario.

Lets say Mercedes continues to hit and becomes Harold Baines incarnate, Eaton performs at above average levels, Vaughn continues to prove he can handle a corner & Eloy and Robert come back mid/late August and perform while being healthy. I would be lead to believe the following

Hahn and co would be well suited to move Eaton and his 8M option to a team like the giants or blue jays in the offseason to fully clear the way and give Vaughn every opportunity to stay in the outfield, while keeping Eloy in LF till Abreu retires and Yermin or Eloy move to 1B/DH respectively and in this blue sky scenario Cespedes or Colas come up and take over LF.

a '22 healthy line up looking like this could very well be the best in the show.

Anderson - SS
Robert - CF
Moncada# - 3B
Abreu - 1B
Jimenez - LF
Mercedes - DH
Vaughn - RF
Grandal# - C
Madrigal - 2B

Collins* - C/1B/DH
Mendick - UT
FA (someone like Brad Miller*) - UT
Engel - OF

Giolito
Keuchel*
Cease
Kopech
Rodon* or Lynn or both if they accept their QOs

Hendriks
Bummer*
Heuer
Ruiz
Crochet* (in a near identical role to Kopech this season)
Foster
Fry*/Cordero/Burdi
Marshall/Cordero/Burdi

["The Kids Can Play"]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Right now there is a long way to go before we have to worry about who sits between Yermin, Vaughn , Eloy and Robert when Eloy and Robert return. 1st off in your scenario who plays RF and who plays LF ? Either Vaughn or Eloy will have to change positions. Eloy doesn't have the arm for RF and has never played there except when he was possibly 25 lbs lighter in the minors. Vaughn has never played RF .

So many scenarios can develop between now and then and we will certainly get a more accurate reading on Vaughn's defense by then. We have to see how Engel hits when he gets back. Will Yermin and Vaughn keep hitting ? How will Robert look when he returns .No need to argue about it any more now. Let's let it play out and see.

I still don't get your point about the injury being caused by a proper lack of stretching or conditioning rather than sprinting. He has to sprint in the OF and on the bases . That type of injury is likely to happen from sprinting.It is more likely to happen if you are poorly conditioned.  You are not going to get a major injuring from jogging if your flexibility is affected by poor conditioning or stretching. Those injuries happen when you are giving max effort .

I do agree we don't need to debate any of these scenarios right now any further. Hopefully Robert and Eloy come back stronger than ever and Yermin and Vaughn are the real deal. Wouldn't that be a nice dilemma for Hahn? 

As far as the sprinting injuries, I agree they occur from hard sprinting with maximum effort in various sports and can happen to poorly fit or extremely fit athletes. However they can be potentially prevented from a daily routine of proper and efficient leg strength training, leg stretching exercises and a strong routine with maintaining maximum leg and hip flexibility. I know this only because I have a good friend who is a physical therapist for a successful orthopedic practice and they work with athletes all the time with these type of injuries. He works with pro, college and high school athletes. 

["The Kids Can Play"]

19 minutes ago, beautox said:

I going to look at the blue sky scenario.

Lets say Mercedes continues to hit and becomes Harold Baines incarnate, Eaton performs at above average levels, Vaughn continues to prove he can handle a corner & Eloy and Robert come back mid/late August and perform while being healthy. I would be lead to believe the following

Hahn and co would be well suited to move Eaton and his 8M option to a team like the giants or blue jays in the offseason to fully clear the way and give Vaughn every opportunity to stay in the outfield, while keeping Eloy in LF till Abreu retires and Yermin or Eloy move to 1B/DH respectively and in this blue sky scenario Cespedes or Colas come up and take over LF.

a '22 healthy line up looking like this could very well be the best in the show.

Anderson - SS
Robert - CF
Moncada# - 3B
Abreu - 1B
Jimenez - LF
Mercedes - DH
Vaughn - RF
Grandal# - C
Madrigal - 2B

Collins* - C/1B/DH
Mendick - UT
FA (someone like Brad Miller*) - UT
Engel - OF

Giolito
Keuchel*
Cease
Kopech
Rodon* or Lynn or both if they accept their QOs

Hendriks
Bummer*
Heuer
Ruiz
Crochet* (in a near identical role to Kopech this season)
Foster
Fry*/Cordero/Burdi
Marshall/Cordero/Burdi

Forget '22, I think those players you listed and they could be this year's lineup in the playoffs. I would make a slight change in the order with same players.

Anderson - SS
Madrigal - 2B
Robert - CF
Abreu - 1B
Jimenez - LF
Mercedes - DH
Vaughn - RF
Moncada - 3B
Grandal - C

As far as the rotation for .22,  if Rodon and Lynn are signed then someone has to be traded or moved to the bullpen. At that point I would like to see this rotation scenario:

Giolito
Kopech
Lynn
Cease
Rodon

I know a lot of if's and assumptions.

I would trade Keuchel.

Keep mind per Hahn, Crochet is a long term plan to be a starter. 

Anyway I know it's all speculation, but how fun is it that we have this much talent and potential problems to deal with.

[CentralChamps21]

I just don't think Eloy and Vaughn in the same OF is viable. Poor Robert will be running non-stop every game.

You just rotate days off for Eloy, Vaughn, Abreu and Mercedes with Vaughn filling the spot of the guy getting the day off.

[GreenSox]

Vaughn stays in left.
Abreu is likely gone after next year.

If either Eloy or Yermin could learn to play a position competently, then there would be no conundrum.  If they can't, one gets traded.  
I just think that Eloy in left isn't wise.  Bad OF defense has indirect effects on the team that aren't picked up in stats.

[raBBit]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Vaughn stays in left.
Abreu is likely gone after next year.

If either Eloy or Yermin could learn to play a position competently, then there would be no conundrum.  If they can't, one gets traded.  
I just think that Eloy in left isn't wise.  Bad OF defense has indirect effects on the team that aren't picked up in stats.

Are you assuming JR is gone after next year too?

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Vaughn stays in left.
Abreu is likely gone after next year.

If either Eloy or Yermin could learn to play a position competently, then there would be no conundrum.  If they can't, one gets traded.  
I just think that Eloy in left isn't wise.  Bad OF defense has indirect effects on the team that aren't picked up in stats.

When Abreu is gone I think Vaughn will shift to first. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/stats/?playerPool=QUALIFIED_ROOKIES

 

Looks like Texas' Adolis Garcia would win if the voting was held today, with Yermin beating out Arozarena and Baddoo for 2nd.  Vaughn and Madrigal within a single OPS point of each other, both just south of 700.

Nobody really stands out on the pitching side.  Kopech, Luis Garcia (HOU), MIze (DET) and Josh Fleming (TBR).

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Now also up to 2nd in MLB in RBI

[reiks12]

Mercedes has an OPS under 600 in his last 30 games. Come on Eloy get better soon.

[ron883]

22 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Mercedes has an OPS under 600 in his last 30 games. Come on Eloy get better soon.

He needs to make some adjustments, and quick. Great bat control, but he can't lay off anything lately. 

[AJ'S Cousin]

Vaughn is the future!!! Mercedes needs a few days off to recharge. He could come back. He had a great eye 2 weeks ago but now he’s swinging at everything. Vaughn has proven that his defense is above average. Right now he’s already defensively better than Eloy. Eloy will be a great DH IF HE CAN MENTALLY ADJUST. Everyone wants to play the field. Vaughn’s catch today shows what a great athlete he is. Is he the 1st baseman of the future or right or left fielder of the future. It’s obvious he can play either spot. Once he learns the pitchers he’s the next Abreu. If they continue to use Yermin, if he wakes up when Eloy comes back, I’m very comfortable with Vaughn in Right Field. He has a very adequate arm. Great instincts. Eloy is great and believe he has a great future. The farm system has Burger, Sheets and others. Deep, Deep, Deep. What a problem to have when Jimenez and Robert come back. Burger and Sheets could be the next Vaughn, and the pitching waiting in the wings!! They could start a second rebuild if necessary and not miss a beat. Question is in August/September who goes?? Lamb? Eaton? Hamilton? Let’s not forget Engel will be in he mix. I don’t envy making these decisions. Same with pitching. Frye will be here soon, Burr looks great, Kopech will return. This is a very DEEP ORGANIZATION. We’ll be fine and we will steam roll over the division when we are at Full Strength  we should have one today  Cease didn’t lose  the defense lost  

 

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by AJ'S Cousin