We Thought We Have A Good Bullpen?

[JoeyCoralFanClub]

What is up with Bummer? Guy walks at least one guy every single time he pitches.

[ChiSox59]

16 hours ago, harkness99 said:

now im "pining" lol

perhaps hendricks is better long term than colome... that seems to be an accepted conclusion by many.

I like how being a little smart ass in your mind isn't personal.

 

I don't know how someone telling you Colome isn't very good, especially as a closer, makes me a "smart ass".  There is a reason 29 other clubs wouldn't beat the $5M the Twins gave him.  The reason: he's not very good.  

[VAfan]

I'm as frustrated as anyone over the bullpens performance so far, but I think they will be fine as they get more use. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

18 hours ago, harkness99 said:

Just being a snide ass

 

17 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, wow.  So sorry I upset you. Not sure the personal attacks are necessary.  

Doesn't take much effort to see Colome had an xFIP (I just chose 1 of several obvious measures!) of 4.61 and 4.26 in his 2 seasons in a White Sox jersey, clearly exhibiting his 2.81 and 0,81 ERAs were not sustainable. Then you watch the guy, and he see he can't strike anybody out and walks a tight rope most times he pitches.

Hendriks is far far far better reliever than Colome,  yet here you are pining for Colome and calling out Hendriks for his poor 3 appearances. 

Far be it for me to come between you two in a lovers' quarrel.

 

But, xFIP isn't park-adjusted, and has it's limitations insofar as HR/FB% being "normalized" to league average. For a pitcher like Colome, who has a career HR/FB% at 9.1%, his xFIP will always be higher than his FIP. Over his career, his xFIP has been > FIP to the tune of some ~0.5-ish, BECAUSE his HR/FB% is < the league average. Colome also doesn't miss bats as much as other closers, so he'll again be underrated in today's day and age, where strikeout pitchers are all the rage.

 

More cogently, to the opinion that Hendriks is "far far far better reliever than Colome?" I'm not so sure. Perhaps "better," but "far far far better?" I think that could be a bit subjective. Maybe "far better," or "far far better," but then subtract the difference in contract size/length, so it goes back to "better?"

I'm not so sure that a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming from an INSANELY pitching-friendly environment was what this team needed this past offseason. I'm not sure that buying a guy who had only 1 season of fWAR > the league average closer [a shortened 2020 aside] isn't "buying high." I'm not sure that a team that ALREADY HAD Heuer, Bummer, Crochet, Kopech, Foster, plus Fry and Burdi really NEEDED to blow their FA wad on a closer, when there are/were more pressing needs.

 

I think that asking if "Hendriks is a better pitcher than Colome" isn't the right question to ask, when you're dealing with an org that has self-imposed salary restrictions. I think the better questions could have been:

1. Is Hendriks THREE TIMES the pitcher that Colome is, based on salary, AND YEARS? [If this is what Hendriks is today, what will he be in 3 years from now?!? ?]

2. Is the future closer already in-house, and at a lower salary? [BTW, did the 2005 SOX break camp with Jenks as the closer? Just askin'....]

3. Could we use the difference in Hendrik's salary/years and Colome's salary/years, and then asset allocate into another area of need? [Rotational depth, utility depth since this org doesn't believe in making versatile players, etc...]

 

For my money, I would have preferred to commit less salary, and fewer years to Colome than what they ultimately paid to Hendriks. I would have preferred that, knowing that I've got PILES of young relievers in the org who might be able to get the closers' job done at a fraction of Hendrik's price/years. [And knowing that Colome's salary would not have handcuffed the org going forward.] I would have then bought another SP in FA, because I think that Cease has sucked out loud at baseball so far. Not because I'm "pining for Colome," so much as I thought/think that the money could have been invested more wisely in this roster..

 

YMMV, and please, carry on, you two. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[CentralChamps21]

One of the reasons the bullpen seems worse than it is is that they've had very few low-leverage innings. I count only 3 out of the 34.2 bullpen innings as low-leverage. A bullpen can't succeed when they always have to be perfect or near-perfect. The offense and the starters have to give them some bigger leads more often.

Ruiz really isn't that good and Foster is struggling right now but the rest are doing OK or better.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

 

Far be it for me to come between you two in a lovers' quarrel.

 

But, xFIP isn't park-adjusted, and has it's limitations insofar as HR/FB% being "normalized" to league average. For a pitcher like Colome, who has a career HR/FB% at 9.1%, his xFIP will always be higher than his FIP. Over his career, his xFIP has been > FIP to the tune of some ~0.5-ish, BECAUSE his HR/FB% is < the league average. Colome also doesn't miss bats as much as other closers, so he'll again be underrated in today's day and age, where strikeout pitchers are all the rage.

 

More cogently, to the opinion that Hendriks is "far far far better reliever than Colome?" I'm not so sure. Perhaps "better," but "far far far better?" I think that could be a bit subjective. Maybe "far better," or "far far better," but then subtract the difference in contract size/length, so it goes back to "better?"

I'm not so sure that a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming from an INSANELY pitching-friendly environment was what this team needed this past offseason. I'm not sure that buying a guy who had only 1 season of fWAR > the league average closer [a shortened 2020 aside] isn't "buying high." I'm not sure that a team that ALREADY HAD Heuer, Bummer, Crochet, Kopech, Foster, plus Fry and Burdi really NEEDED to blow their FA wad on a closer, when there are/were more pressing needs.

 

I think that asking if "Hendriks is a better pitcher than Colome" isn't the right question to ask, when you're dealing with an org that has self-imposed salary restrictions. I think the better questions could have been:

1. Is Hendriks THREE TIMES the pitcher that Colome is, based on salary, AND YEARS? [If this is what Hendriks is today, what will he be in 3 years from now?!? ?]

2. Is the future closer already in-house, and at a lower salary? [BTW, did the 2005 SOX break camp with Jenks as the closer? Just askin'....]

3. Could we use the difference in Hendrik's salary/years and Colome's salary/years, and then asset allocate into another area of need? [Rotational depth, utility depth since this org doesn't believe in making versatile players, etc...]

 

For my money, I would have preferred to commit less salary, and fewer years to Colome than what they ultimately paid to Hendriks. I would have preferred that, knowing that I've got PILES of young relievers in the org who might be able to get the closers' job done at a fraction of Hendrik's price/years. [And knowing that Colome's salary would not have handcuffed the org going forward.] I would have then bought another SP in FA, because I think that Cease has sucked out loud at baseball so far. Not because I'm "pining for Colome," so much as I thought/think that the money could have been invested more wisely in this roster..

 

YMMV, and please, carry on, you two. 

Lol, nice post.  Made my chuckle.

I too agree that the 4/$54M on Hendriks could have perhaps been better spent elsewhere on the roster.  But Hendriks has been one of the premier closers in the game for a couple years and certainly will fit in nicely at the back of anyone's pen.  For a team that is as budget conscience as the Sox, I too found it to be a curious move, especially with all the big time young arms they have.  That said, bullpens and young arms are awfully fickle and we all know how quickly a surplus can turn into a need.  

Colome is a fine big league reliever.  He over achieved with the Sox.  His stuff isn't great and he's getting older.  Would he have been a solid guy to bring back for $5M?  Yeah, probably.  But if the finances are as tight as the Sox make it out to be, I am glad they spent that money on Eaton instead.  Imagine how bad our OF would look without him right now!  

At the end of the day, not so sure why @harkness99 got so offended, but in any event, we're all on the same team here and the bullpen should be a strong plus for the Sox without Colome around.  

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, nice post.  Made my chuckle.

I too agree that the 4/$54M on Hendriks could have perhaps been better spent elsewhere on the roster.  But Hendriks has been one of the premier closers in the game for a couple years and certainly will fit in nicely at the back of anyone's pen.  For a team that is as budget conscience as the Sox, I too found it to be a curious move, especially with all the big time young arms they have.  That said, bullpens and young arms are awfully fickle and we all know how quickly a surplus can turn into a need.  

Colome is a fine big league reliever.  He over achieved with the Sox.  His stuff isn't great and he's getting older.  Would he have been a solid guy to bring back for $5M?  Yeah, probably.  But if the finances are as tight as the Sox make it out to be, I am glad they spent that money on Eaton instead.  Imagine how bad our OF would look without him right now!  

At the end of the day, not so sure why @harkness99 got so offended, but in any event, we're all on the same team here and the bullpen should be a strong plus for the Sox without Colome around.  

Especially when there was an abundance of relievers that signed cheap that we could have filled a pen with while giving the closer role to Bummer, Crochet, etc.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

1. But Hendriks has been one of the premier closers in the game for a couple years and certainly will fit in nicely at the back of anyone's pen.  For a team that is as budget conscience as the Sox, I too found it to be a curious move, especially with all the big time young arms they have.  That said, bullpens and young arms are awfully fickle and we all know how quickly a surplus can turn into a need.  

2.  But if the finances are as tight as the Sox make it out to be, I am glad they spent that money on Eaton instead.  Imagine how bad our OF would look without him right now!  

1. Hendriks has had fWAR that exceeded the league average for closers once in his career. The league average is ~1.8; he had 3.8 in 2019 in pitching-friendly Oakland in 2019. [I draw no conclusions about the anomalous 2020 season.] But we've seen this movie before where the SOX stoopidly acquire a closer from Oakland, only for that closer to immediately shit his pants and fuck over the SOX.

I'm not convinced that Hendriks is a premier closer any more, or if he benefitted from having pitched in a pitcher's paradise in Oakland. I also don't know that he was the best use of funds, since we're a SP injury or SP bout of ineffectiveness away from having both Cease and Lopez walking the yard 2 days out of 5. There is/was some surplus inventory in the BP. There isn't much surplus in the rotation, IMO.

 

2. I don't/didn't view the budget decision as "Colome or Eaton," since they are differing components of the roster. Rather, I viewed it as:

"Hendriks or Colome, PLUS another FA SP, PLUS a FA reliever, PLUS Cease unfucking himself in Charlotte, PLUS being able to play the service time or extension game with Crochet." Or,

"Hendriks vs Colome, + extra money to blow at the TDL or waiver deadline."

 

Regardless, Hendriks hasn't lived up to his obese contract thus far, and I didn't like the idea of using such a large portion of the budget on a closer. He certainly hasn't proven to be three times the pitcher that Colome is, regardless of how one rates Colome.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[CentralChamps21]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Hendriks has had fWAR that exceeded the league average for closers once in his career. The league average is ~1.8; he had 3.8 in 2019 in pitching-friendly Oakland in 2019.

I frankly stopped reading your post when you suggested that a good fWAR might be due to a pitching-friendly ballpark.

Need to know why (spoiler below)?

 

 

 

fWAR adjusts for park factors

[Bob Sacamano]

40 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

I frankly stopped reading your post when you suggested that a good fWAR might be due to a pitching-friendly ballpark.

Need to know why (spoiler below)?

 

 

 

fWAR adjusts for park factors

So you stopped reading at the very end of the paragraph? 

[CentralChamps21]

10 hours ago, manbearpuig said:

So you stopped reading at the very end of the paragraph? 

No, I just quoted the first sentence of a very long paragraph.

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

I frankly stopped reading your post when you suggested that a good fWAR might be due to a pitching-friendly ballpark.

Need to know why (spoiler below)?

 

 

 

fWAR adjusts for park factors

Yes, we already know this. Hendriks has still only been above average for fWAR for closers once in his career. He has not regularly been above average over the course of his career, so one wonders if this was yet again this FO buying high on a FA.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, we already know this. Hendriks has still only been above average for fWAR for closers once in his career. He has not regularly been above average over the course of his career, so one wonders if this was yet again this FO buying high on a FA.

You gotta give 1.4 fwar in 60 games in 2020 as above average too. Thee virus wasn’t his fault, unless he cast some sort of spell.

[Two-Gun Pete]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You gotta give 1.4 fwar in 60 games in 2020 as above average too. Thee virus wasn’t his fault, unless he cast some sort of spell.

The short nature of the season, and the extremely reduced travel (especially for ALW division teams) makes that hard to gauge. Especially for relief pitchers, IMO.

Would Hendriks have continued on that pace, or would he shit his pants later in the season, as he's done here? Who knows?

We DO know that Oakland (based on the book Moneyball) does not stupidly squander resources on acquiring a closer. Yet, they seem to routinely have good ones. Given that Hendriks was about to be a FA, Oakland likely rode him like a rented mule in 2020, knowing that any overuse issues would be someone else's problems.

At the same time, dumber FOs squander resources (high draft picks and FA dollars) on closers, when their teams have other needs.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[harkness99]

crotchett obviously isn't the same guy we saw last year.....

either by injury or design...

[zisk]

Admitted Colome fan. Still, LH has only been good for 2 seasons and Colome has never had a bad year in his career. When some one keeps having success

year after year, it means some thing. Obviously every player gets old sooner or later. But the difference in salary between these guys could have helped 

cushion the blow when El Kabong went down(does anybody remember this vague cartoon reference?).

[MiddleCoastBias]

Who even needs a bullpen when we have Carlos Rodon.

[TheTruth05]

Just now, MiddleCoastBias said:

Who even needs a bullpen when we have Carlos Rodon.

Lance Lynn ready for a repeat tomorrow too ?

[wegner]

Giolito

Lynn

Rodon

Cease 

Keuchel