Madrigal.

[SoxBlanco]

15 minutes ago, Vulture said:

99.99999999999% is a trillion just like 0.01% is one in ten thousand, as per your actual claims. How am I making that  up? If models are a trillion times more accurate then there can’t have been a couple times they missed

He never said the models are a trillion times more accurate. He said over a large sample, the model will be more accurate than a scout 99.99999999999% of the time. 

EDIT: I'm not trying to argue the math. I'm trying to argue the context of the math. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by SoxBlanco

[Chicago White Sox]

Madrigal now sporting a wRC+ of 124 with a fairly reasonable .313 BABIP.

[reiks12]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Madrigal now sporting a wRC+ of 124 with a fairly reasonable .313 BABIP.

thats not good enough for a rookie with under 50 games played

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

53 minutes ago, Vulture said:

99.99999999999% is a trillion just like 0.01% is one in ten thousand, as per your actual claims. How am I making that  up? If models are a trillion times more accurate then there can’t have been a couple times they missed

Can you read? I said the odds of a scout being more accurate than a model over a large enough sample (not 1 or 2 players) is 1 in 1000000000. Please try to read before repeating the same fallacy over and over.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Madrigal now sporting a wRC+ of 124 with a fairly reasonable .313 BABIP.

Hmmmm almost like nicky isn't worthless as an offensive player with his current "weakling" profile. If he finishes the year anywhere near 110-120 we'll just chalk it up to Harold's eye glass prescription being expired.

[RagahRagah]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hmmmm almost like nicky isn't worthless as an offensive player with his current "weakling" profile. If he finishes the year anywhere near 110-120 we'll just chalk it up to Harold's eye glass prescription being expired.

So much good crow waiting to be served up this year.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I think this thread is going to get more and more fun

Love to see nick shove it to all the haters.

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

He never said the models are a trillion times more accurate. He said over a large sample, the model will be more accurate than a scout 99.99999999999% of the time. 

EDIT: I'm not trying to argue the math. I'm trying to argue the context of the math. 

On Wall Street, the quantitative models/indexes are probably closer to 85%...but then human beings don’t have automated must sell bells going off when investments hit some arbitrary figure like down 15-20% in 2-3 weeks.

But there’s no model in the world that can easily capture guys like Trout, Acuna, Soto, Robert and Tatis, especially when they are 15-18 year olds.   The proof is that many of those guys were passed over or received insignificant bonuses.

A model would have forced Renteria or Hahn to give Mercedes a shot in 2019-20?
 

A model most importantly can’t measure things like drive, character and ambition...or detect defective morals and ethics.

Look at the hundreds of NFL players who fizzle off after scoring off the charts in athletic tests, but fail to put it all together...and measure them vs. the anomalous Tom Brady’s or Patrick Mahomes of the world who possess intangibles that only a acout can pick up on from spending time with family, friends, gf or fiance, coaches, etc.

 

Look at the White Sox scouting success with Paddy guys...even the ones not signed but targeted...versus the overall success of the much more analytically-driven scouting of NCAA hitters and pitchers for June drafts.

Heck, look at KW signing Iguchi off old game videos from the Japanese PBL...sight unseen in person.

Edited April 25, 2021 by caulfield12

[Dominikk85]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

On Wall Street, the quantitative models/indexes are probably closer to 85%...but then human beings don’t have automated must sell bells going off when investments hit some arbitrary figure like down 15-20% in 2-3 weeks.

But there’s no model in the world that can easily capture guys like Trout, Acuna, Soto, Robert and Tatis, especially when they are 15-18 year olds.   The proof is that many of those guys were passed over or received insignificant bonuses.

A model would have forced Renteria or Hahn to give Mercedes a shot in 2019-20?
 

A model most importantly can’t measure things like drive, character and ambition...or detect defective morals and ethics.

Look at the hundreds of NFL players who fizzle off after scoring off the charts in athletic tests, but fail to put it all together...and measure them vs. the anomalous Tom Brady’s or Patrick Mahomes of the world who possess intangibles that only a acout can pick up on from spending time with family, friends, gf or fiance, coaches, etc.

 

Look at the White Sox scouting success with Paddy guys...even the ones not signed but targeted...versus the overall success of the much more analytically-driven scouting of NCAA hitters and pitchers for June drafts.

Heck, look at KW signing Iguchi off old game videos from the Japanese PBL...sight unseen in person.

Yeah, models are good for college players but for HS and international its value is limited because you don't have enough data against high level competition. 

[caulfield12]

Just now, Dominikk85 said:

Yeah, models are good for college players but for HS and international its value is limited because you don't have enough data against high level competition. 

Even then, the aluminum vs. metal bats issue is elusive, unless you watch these kids extensively in the Cape Cod League.  Everyone transfers their game to the pros with varying impacts from that changeover.  Madrigal has kept the high contact skills, but power is much trickier to calculate.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

On Wall Street, the quantitative models/indexes are probably closer to 85%...but then human beings don’t have automated must sell bells going off when investments hit some arbitrary figure like down 15-20% in 2-3 weeks.

But there’s no model in the world that can easily capture guys like Trout, Acuna, Soto, Robert and Tatis, especially when they are 15-18 year olds.   The proof is that many of those guys were passed over or received insignificant bonuses.

A model would have forced Renteria or Hahn to give Mercedes a shot in 2019-20?
 

A model most importantly can’t measure things like drive, character and ambition...or detect defective morals and ethics.

Look at the hundreds of NFL players who fizzle off after scoring off the charts in athletic tests, but fail to put it all together...and measure them vs. the anomalous Tom Brady’s or Patrick Mahomes of the world who possess intangibles that only a acout can pick up on from spending time with family, friends, gf or fiance, coaches, etc.

 

Look at the White Sox scouting success with Paddy guys...even the ones not signed but targeted...versus the overall success of the much more analytically-driven scouting of NCAA hitters and pitchers for June drafts.

Heck, look at KW signing Iguchi off old game videos from the Japanese PBL...sight unseen in person.

Scouts are literally the people that said to give tatis, acuna and etc that little money. The angels drafted someone before trout that year. Those guys, if anything, are an indictment on the scouting community not an example of their immense skills.

Robert is a better example of a scout and scouting community loving a guy without a lot of data, paying him a ton, and it paying off. 

[Jerksticks]

28 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

So much good crow waiting to be served up this year.

So much.  So many smart people

[Soxfest]

Nick is a perfect #9 hitter for this team especially.

Edited April 25, 2021 by Soxfest

[chitownsportsfan]

This little fucker is balling out.  Kudos to him.  His defense is better and his bat right now is electric, even the last out was another bullet.  Also, an awesome safety squeeze executed to perfection.

Edited April 25, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I was wrong and overreacted about madrigal. 

FIFY

[35thstreetswarm]

46 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

So much good crow waiting to be served up this year.

Yep, but not just in this thread...

[RagahRagah]

22 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Yep, but not just in this thread...

Indeed.

[harkness99]

he has been hot.. keep it going

[Greg Hibbard]

I hope he does continue to prove my skeptical ass wrong. Being wrong is way better than the White Sox having a bad second baseman!

[caulfield12]

Undoubtedly there are better players out there, maybe even for THIS season, but Madrigal makes a lot more sense from a mid-market payroll standpoint.

 And we know there's a lot of room for improvement with his baserunning and fielding...not to mention the ball starting to jump off his bat as we get into warmer weather for doubles and triples.

He SHOULD be what many predicted, a solid 2.5ish (maybe 3) fWAR second baseman who fits in perfectly with some of the more free swinging power hitters in the Sox line-up.

[joejoesox]

1 hour ago, Soxfest said:

Nick is a perfect #9 hitter for this team especially.

you misspelled leadoff

[black jack]

Don't look now, but the stupid, slow, weak dude is stringing together extra base hits, smart base running, and solid defense.  

[wegner]

I think what alot of us wanted was a pesky hitter who would drive opposing pitchers nuts and turn over the lineup.  He's been doing that.

His lack of swing and miss against major league pitching has been quite impressive to me.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, black jack said:

Don't look now, but the stupid, slow, weak dude is stringing together extra base hits, smart base running, and solid defense.  

 

3 hours ago, wegner said:

I think what alot of us wanted was a pesky hitter who would drive opposing pitchers nuts and turn over the lineup.  He's been doing that.

His lack of swing and miss against major league pitching has been quite impressive to me.

I always felt with a young player I want to give them the benefit of the doubt. It just seems to make the most sense to me. I don't like to crow about them too much when they are doing good nor bash them when they aren't everything we think they should be. There's always room for improvement in every young player with all the professionals around them to help and from their own desire.

I looked at Nick in that way. Then I threw in the shoulder injury and decided there was no way I could be angry or disappointed in him so soon. I said all he has to do to keep OFer's honest was hit the ball down the lines or into the gaps and over some heads more and with the injury perhaps we didn't see a lot of that. We still haven't seen him pulling the ball much. He uses the RF line a lot more since most pull hitters can get out too early and K more so that's not in his repertoire ..yet. It was nice to see that triple to LCF since I look for progression from a hitter and that to me was progression. He's been getting held to singles down the line in RF because he's shifted on toward the line so it was also nice to see him hit the ball over Gallo's head when he was playing so shallow to try to catch a line drive before it  hits the ground or throw out Robert at the plate if a hard hit single comes right at him. Anything off to either side of him and Robert would score.

As far as the base running and fielding go, again gave him the benefit of the doubt that should come with being a rookie and having an injury. I never felt I was being sold a bill of goods that he wasn't delivering on by scouts. We might have a tendency to think fielding and base running doesn't take as big of an adjustment as hitting normally will but I also believe that guys may be pressing or adjusting to the speed of the game at the highest level.

Edited April 26, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Stinky Stanky]

6 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

This little fucker is balling out.  Kudos to him.  His defense is better and his bat right now is electric, even the last out was another bullet.  Also, an awesome safety squeeze executed to perfection.

It wasn't even a safety squeeze because he didn't take off as soon as the bunt hit the ground, but delayed until the fielder tuned to first base.  Good baserunning.  Wears #1, reminds me of Lance Johnson in the 9 hole.