Madrigal.

[Greg Hibbard]

10 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

This is where I have a problem with the determination of his value.  I don't care if he hits home runs.  That's not where his value is.  His value is getting on base, or as happened last night, making contact and driving in/moving over runners.  A player like Madrigal should be evaluated based on what his strengths should be.  Not home runs or OPS or slugging.  But, yes, he needs to improve on defense and baserunning.

I can see the draft pick argument, but he's still a work in progress.

Determining his value in that way isn't problematic to me though, because singles hitters often fail to score, especially without ++ wheels to steal bases. How many times is Nick stuck on first? While the situation last night is the optimal productive out combination, it relies on - a man getting on 2nd base ahead of Nick, madrigal executing, anderson executing. Even if all three events happen 40% of the time (an insanely high estimate), three 40% events happening *together* happens 6.4% of the time. And how many times a year does that situation even potentially come up for the ninth hitter? I would imagine very few. We're probably talking about a handful of events this season, right?

If you're a crusher like Mercedes, or even a free swinger with blistering pop like Moncada, hitters who don't have the bat control Nick has, but can absolutely crush the ball 3-5% of the time they're up...those hitters score that run no matter how many times they strike out and how low their average is ultimately. This game is about SCORING RUNS, not hitting safely, and not about not striking out. Perfect situational hitting with productive outs down in the order is something that the stars rarely line up for. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Greg Hibbard

[fathom]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again. 

If Nick was a 7th round pick and not the 4th overall selection but everything else stayed exactly the same.......95% of fans are OK with Nick. 

Might not be fair, but I believe it to be the truth. 

It doesn’t even bother me where he was picked now. IMO, it’s all about whether or not getting a lot of singles outweighs his horrible defense and base running. Given all the core players locked into other spots,  2B seems like a position in need of upgrade down the road if the Sox want to build a super team.

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Determining his value in that way isn't problematic to me though, because singles hitters often fail to score, especially without ++ wheels to steal bases. How many times is Nick stuck on first? While the situation last night is the optimal productive out combination, it relies on - a man getting on 2nd base ahead of Nick, madrigal executing, anderson executing. Even if all three events happen 40% of the time (an insanely high estimate), three 40% events happening *together* happens 6.4% of the time. And how many times a year does that situation even potentially come up for the ninth hitter? I would imagine very few. We're probably talking about a handful of events this season, right?

If you're a crusher like Mercedes, or even a free swinger with blistering pop like Moncada, hitters who don't have the bat control Nick has, but can absolutely crush the ball 3-5% of the time they're up...those hitters score that run no matter how many times they strike out and how low their average is ultimately. This game is about SCORING RUNS, not hitting safely, and not about not striking out. Perfect situational hitting with productive outs down in the order is something that the stars rarely line up for. 

If you have an entire lineup built with this mentality (get em on, over and in), like the 2014-15 Royals, it can work.

But it has to be the entire team’s mindset, like the 2005 White Sox with Pods and Iguchi setting the table for the 3-4-5 hitters.

Right now, it’s a blend, but still more free swinging, high K hitters.   Mercedes has been really good at making contact. Eaton’s a huge step up from Mazara.  Madrigal.  Even Robert is a much improved pure hitter, just lacking the homers to show for it. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Fans will have high expectations for 1st round picks, ESPECIALLY top 5 picks. It is what it is. 

No offense but professional sports teams should not evaluate their players based on what fans think.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

No offense but professional sports teams should not evaluate their players based on what fans think.

Considering he was being included in trade proposals this offseason, I would say the front office has concerns a well

[Tnetennba]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

It doesn’t even bother me where he was picked now. IMO, it’s all about whether or not getting a lot of singles outweighs his horrible defense and base running. Given all the core players locked into other spots,  2B seems like a position in need of upgrade down the road if the Sox want to build a super team.

I don't care where he was drafted at this point either.  I care more about him not fucking up on defense and on the bases to the point that it completely outweighs any contribution at the plate.  Clean that up and he is fine.  Nothing spectacular, but playable.

[gusguyman]

53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've got to question this.

There is a direct correlation between wRC+ and runs scored/produced. Madrigal's career wRC+ is 110 as of today. That would have been the 8th best team value in 2020 and the 5th best in 2019. If you had a team compiled of 9 players with wRC+ of 110, I don't think statistically it could be the worst offense in baseball regardless of how you get to that value. To put it in perspective, there were teams with wRC+ of 76 and 73 in 2019 and 2020. You might want to recheck your model because that simulator is not projecting run production correctly somewhere.

Definitely possible there is a problem, especially since this is so edge-casey. That said, when I ran the sims I looked into the stats and game logs a bit to see why they under performed so badly, and a couple things stood out:

• I am using Madrigal's career stats as his 'true distribution' but there are some SSS problems with that. In particular, Madrigal has pretty extreme L/R splits right now, but it doesn't weigh down his overall statline much because only 20% of his ABs have come against LHP, which is below league average for a non-platoon starter. So his 'true' wRC+ would be less than his actual 110.
• The model includes baserunning and double plays, which are especially punitive for the Chicago Madrigals. Being bad at picking up extra bases (or running into outs) has already weighed down his real world value immensely, but at least the White Sox have mashers behind him who can bring him home with dingers. The Chicago Madrigals are completely reliant on manufacturing runs with hits, so their terrible baserunning has an even greater effect.

In summation, his 'true' wRC+ is less than his actual career wRC+, and his terrible baserunning causes the Chicago Madrigals to significantly under perform even the 'true' wRC+, since IIRC baserunning is not factored into wRC+. I think the latter factor is the bigger of the two.

I agree team wRC+ should be strongly correlated with team runs, but this is such a weird edge case so I don't think its impossible for there to be an outlier. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Considering he was being included in trade proposals this offseason, I would say the front office has concerns a well

The job of the FO is to explore anything trades that will help improve the team. I'm sure they had discussions on nearly every player. I wouldn't read much into media "rumors" as the Sox would have Cruz, Bauer, Wheeler and Machado if that were the case. 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Definitely possible there is a problem, especially since this is so edge-casey. That said, when I ran the sims I looked into the stats and game logs a bit to see why they under performed so badly, and a couple things stood out:

• I am using Madrigal's career stats as his 'true distribution' but there are some SSS problems with that. In particular, Madrigal has pretty extreme L/R splits right now, but it doesn't weigh down his overall statline much because only 20% of his ABs have come against LHP, which is below league average for a non-platoon starter. So his 'true' wRC+ would be less than his actual 110.
• The model includes baserunning and double plays, which are especially punitive for the Chicago Madrigals. Being bad at picking up extra bases (or running into outs) has already weighed down his real world value immensely, but at least the White Sox have mashers behind him who can bring him home with dingers. The Chicago Madrigals are completely reliant on manufacturing runs with hits, so their terrible baserunning has an even greater effect.

In summation, his 'true' wRC+ is less than his actual career wRC+, and his terrible baserunning causes the Chicago Madrigals to significantly under perform even the 'true' wRC+, since IIRC baserunning is not factored into wRC+. I think the latter factor is the bigger of the two.

I agree team wRC+ should be strongly correlated with team runs, but this is such a weird edge case so I don't think its impossible for there to be an outlier. 

A good reminder of how much base running matters, or at least how much it matters for a player on the margins of being useful.

[macsandz]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

A good reminder of how much base running matters, or at least how much it matters for a player on the margins of being useful.

Yeah but It's mostly about people determined to find something to complain about when it comes to Madrigal. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Definitely possible there is a problem, especially since this is so edge-casey. That said, when I ran the sims I looked into the stats and game logs a bit to see why they under performed so badly, and a couple things stood out:

• I am using Madrigal's career stats as his 'true distribution' but there are some SSS problems with that. In particular, Madrigal has pretty extreme L/R splits right now, but it doesn't weigh down his overall statline much because only 20% of his ABs have come against LHP, which is below league average for a non-platoon starter. So his 'true' wRC+ would be less than his actual 110.
• The model includes baserunning and double plays, which are especially punitive for the Chicago Madrigals. Being bad at picking up extra bases (or running into outs) has already weighed down his real world value immensely, but at least the White Sox have mashers behind him who can bring him home with dingers. The Chicago Madrigals are completely reliant on manufacturing runs with hits, so their terrible baserunning has an even greater effect.

In summation, his 'true' wRC+ is less than his actual career wRC+, and his terrible baserunning causes the Chicago Madrigals to significantly under perform even the 'true' wRC+, since IIRC baserunning is not factored into wRC+. I think the latter factor is the bigger of the two.

I agree team wRC+ should be strongly correlated with team runs, but this is such a weird edge case so I don't think its impossible for there to be an outlier. 

Yeah, I agree with most of your points. I don't think, as he is today, he would be the 6th best offense in baseball if it was just him. I also don't think he would be the worst offense in baseball though; likely somewhere in the middle/early back of the pack.

I do think his base running is a little too small-samply for me to allow it to weigh down his offensive production significantly, so I would normalize that a bit as the sample for base running through 45 career games is too noisy, but I also I think his offense isn't quite this good when normalized a bit either (although, maybe it is). Ironically enough I think Nick might really benefit from the deadened baseball (if the trend continues following further analysis) because he wasn't hitting home runs anyway and the rest of the field moving backwards in productivity due to the ball only enhances his skill set more as it should minimally effect his production.

I said it earlier, but really he just needs to change his approach early in counts and stop swinging at pitchers pitches. It causes weaker than weak contact because he never misses, and he should really reserve that for when it's 0-2. Maybe his K-Rate ticks up a smidge, but it still would be at a historically great level so who cares?

All in all, I don't think the Chicago Madrigal's would be as good as the 110 wRC+ would project, but I do think it would be near league average even after the regression for the points we discuss above. You make me want to put this in production and see what I produce lol.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

A good reminder of how much base running matters, or at least how much it matters for a player on the margins of being useful.

Similar to defensive metrics, base running metrics really were not meant to be analyzed after 45 games. The opportunities just aren't great enough to actually substantiate the predictability of them. You need more information/data before you can gain confidence in their conclusions.

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, macsandz said:

Yeah but It's mostly about people determined to find something to complain about when it comes to Madrigal. 

Well we've been over this but when you are sold a bill of goods and the bill of goods turns out to be entirely different than what you ordered people will get upset with the seller.  We were sold a high floor, "once a lifetime" baseball IQ and a rock solid defense.  None of those things to this point have been fulfilled.

His hitting is as advertised, everything else isn't even close.

[Quin]

18 minutes ago, fathom said:

Considering he was being included in trade proposals this offseason, I would say the front office has concerns a well

Ah yes, what an insult to be included in a trade proposal for checks notes Corbin Burnes.

 

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

Ah yes, what an insult to be included in a trade proposal for checks notes Corbin Burnes.

 

It definitely wasn’t just for him.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Well we've been over this but when you are sold a bill of goods and the bill of goods turns out to be entirely different than what you ordered people will get upset with the seller.  We were sold a high floor, "once a lifetime" baseball IQ and a rock solid defense.  None of those things to this point have been fulfilled.

His hitting is as advertised, everything else isn't even close.

But who sold you the "bill of goods" The FO? The media? "experts".

In the end none of the projections matter when it comes to play on the field. Evaluate him based on what he is doing and project where he can get to.

[ptatc]

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Well we've been over this but when you are sold a bill of goods and the bill of goods turns out to be entirely different than what you ordered people will get upset with the seller.  We were sold a high floor, "once a lifetime" baseball IQ and a rock solid defense.  None of those things to this point have been fulfilled.

His hitting is as advertised, everything else isn't even close.

Is that a "yet" or do you as an evaulator think he has reached his peak?

[RagahRagah]

55 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Determining his value in that way isn't problematic to me though, because singles hitters often fail to score, especially without ++ wheels to steal bases. How many times is Nick stuck on first? While the situation last night is the optimal productive out combination, it relies on - a man getting on 2nd base ahead of Nick, madrigal executing, anderson executing. Even if all three events happen 40% of the time (an insanely high estimate), three 40% events happening *together* happens 6.4% of the time. And how many times a year does that situation even potentially come up for the ninth hitter? I would imagine very few. We're probably talking about a handful of events this season, right?

If you're a crusher like Mercedes, or even a free swinger with blistering pop like Moncada, hitters who don't have the bat control Nick has, but can absolutely crush the ball 3-5% of the time they're up...those hitters score that run no matter how many times they strike out and how low their average is ultimately. This game is about SCORING RUNS, not hitting safely, and not about not striking out. Perfect situational hitting with productive outs down in the order is something that the stars rarely line up for. 

If people in front of him are hitting and getting on base, then he IS scoring runs. That's a big point of a 9 hole hitter, especially one in a competent lineup. He's a 9 hole hitter, not a leadoff guy.

Edited April 21, 2021 by RagahRagah

[hi8is]

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

But who sold you the "bill of goods" The FO? The media? "experts".

In the end none of the projections matter when it comes to play on the field. Evaluate him based on what he is doing and project where he can get to.

Agreed about throwing out the projections, so if that’s the case, why should we be confident his defense and base running will improve?  As Stoney just said on the radio, Madrigal needs to stop lobbing the ball over to first.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Is that a "yet" or do you as an evaulator think he has reached his peak?

I'm not foolish enough to make bold predictions about how good he will be in the future, things can change.  What I will say is that so far he is nothing as advertised and you can use the eye test or metrics or both to say that with quite a bit of confidence.  And to answer your prior question of COURSE that is what we were sold by scouting reports, the White Sox FO and the media.  Like, he wasn't advertised as a toolsy freak like TA boom or bust type.  He was a low ceiling high floor pick.

[gusguyman]

22 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I agree with most of your points. I don't think, as he is today, he would be the 6th best offense in baseball if it was just him. I also don't think he would be the worst offense in baseball though; likely somewhere in the middle/early back of the pack.

I do think his base running is a little too small-samply for me to allow it to weigh down his offensive production significantly, so I would normalize that a bit as the sample for base running through 45 career games is too noisy, but I also I think his offense isn't quite this good when normalized a bit either (although, maybe it is). Ironically enough I think Nick might really benefit from the deadened baseball (if the trend continues following further analysis) because he wasn't hitting home runs anyway and the rest of the field moving backwards in productivity due to the ball only enhances his skill set more as it should minimally effect his production.

I said it earlier, but really he just needs to change his approach early in counts and stop swinging at pitchers pitches. It causes weaker than weak contact because he never misses, and he should really reserve that for when it's 0-2. Maybe his K-Rate ticks up a smidge, but it still would be at a historically great level so who cares?

All in all, I don't think the Chicago Madrigal's would be as good as the 110 wRC+ would project, but I do think it would be near league average even after the regression for the points we discuss above. You make me want to put this in production and see what I produce lol.

FWIW I just re-ran the sim with baserunning turned off (so all baserunning follows the basic advancement rules of the 24 base-out state model), and the Chicago Madrigals were just slightly below league average with a runs per game of 4.37. So yeah his SSS baserunning stats were absolutely destroying the team, but also homeruns are good. 

[chitownsportsfan]

Yes they are.  Quite good in fact. About 3x as valuable as a single.

  

Edited April 21, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

FWIW I just re-ran the sim with baserunning turned off (so all baserunning follows the basic advancement rules of the 24 base-out state model), and the Chicago Madrigals were just slightly below league average with a runs per game of 4.37. So yeah his SSS baserunning stats were absolutely destroying the team, but also homeruns are good. 

Big, if true.  

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

As @Tony and I were saying last night that's a pretty cool man management decision from TLR and something I don't think the previous two "players' managers" would have made.  He has enough clout to do that and then mention it to the media, which I think is helped by his "player managers" he has.  I wonder if Jose talked to Yermin and then Tony and they made the decision after some deliberation.  Yea he should have caught the ball but his 2B also shouldn't have aimed it at his big toe.  Just take the rest of the day off and go get'em tmr might not have been the worst idea there.

La Russa realized he made a mistake starting Mercedes at 1B without  enough practice reps. Vaughn or Grandal have significant prior experience. Rather have him start at his natural position if your trying to find way to get him in the lineup. Glad he rectified it.