Madrigal.

[ptatc]

44 minutes ago, fathom said:

Agreed about throwing out the projections, so if that’s the case, why should we be confident his defense and base running will improve?  As Stoney just said on the radio, Madrigal needs to stop lobbing the ball over to first.

Correct. Is that someone can learn with experience. You don't need to be confident but you can aslo acknowledge that some players do improve after only playing 50 games in the MLB. Instead of being absolutely, sure that he has reached his ceiling 50 games in. From experience, I've seen people improve. Maybe he won't but I'm not willing to write him off yet.

[ptatc]

35 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yes they are.  Quite good in fact. About 3x as valuable as a single.

  

But use the negative number for strikeouts and since the HR hitters typically strikeout more, it negates some of that advantage.

[chitownsportsfan]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

But use the negative number for strikeouts and since the HR hitters typically strikeout more, it negates some of that advantage.

As Tango's numbers show it's a trifling penalty over a regular out.  Largely because you can't hit into a double play when you strikeout.  Strikeouts simply are not much worse than a regular out and Tango's work shows that quite clearly, imo of course.

[RagahRagah]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He had surgery because the dumb ass ran through the third base coach's stop sign and injured himself sliding into the out. Tony is committed to playing his dumbass everyday, despite the fact Mendick is a better player now, because he reminds him of his favorite lollipop guild player from decades ago.  

The ever growing list of Madrigal excuses for his continued stupid and sloppy fielding, throwing and baserunning is at least twice as tall as his frame. Doubt we'll see Tony bench Madrigal for "bad vibes", regardless of how many times he fucks up.

 

This post is such garbage. Shameful.

[Focurjay]

I'm sure this board will be losing sleep for this chance:

This is a golden opportunity to get an autographed ball of a Future HOF.

[hi8is]

8 minutes ago, Focurjay said:

I'm sure this board will be losing sleep for this chance:

This is a golden opportunity to get an autographed ball of a Future HOF.

He always signs with a cross and makes three dots.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I agree with most of your points. I don't think, as he is today, he would be the 6th best offense in baseball if it was just him. I also don't think he would be the worst offense in baseball though; likely somewhere in the middle/early back of the pack.

I do think his base running is a little too small-samply for me to allow it to weigh down his offensive production significantly, so I would normalize that a bit as the sample for base running through 45 career games is too noisy, but I also I think his offense isn't quite this good when normalized a bit either (although, maybe it is). Ironically enough I think Nick might really benefit from the deadened baseball (if the trend continues following further analysis) because he wasn't hitting home runs anyway and the rest of the field moving backwards in productivity due to the ball only enhances his skill set more as it should minimally effect his production.

I said it earlier, but really he just needs to change his approach early in counts and stop swinging at pitchers pitches. It causes weaker than weak contact because he never misses, and he should really reserve that for when it's 0-2. Maybe his K-Rate ticks up a smidge, but it still would be at a historically great level so who cares?

All in all, I don't think the Chicago Madrigal's would be as good as the 110 wRC+ would project, but I do think it would be near league average even after the regression for the points we discuss above. You make me want to put this in production and see what I produce lol.

And, in all fairness, Bohm is also now up and not exactly lighting the world on fire, either.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

As Tango's numbers show it's a trifling penalty over a regular out.  Largely because you can't hit into a double play when you strikeout.  Strikeouts simply are not much worse than a regular out and Tango's work shows that quite clearly, imo of course.

Not much but multiply it by 100, if they strike out that many more times and it starts to become significant.

[Greg Hibbard]

18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Not much but multiply it by 100, if they strike out that many more times and it starts to become significant.

Taking the grand total column of the grid, let's compare player A to player B

Player A: 217 strikeouts, 242 field outs, 68 BB, 98 singles, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 22 home runs =  4.05

Player B: 32 strikeouts, 350 field outs, 29 BB, 158 singles, 18 doubles, 4 triples, 0 home runs =  -3.96

Player A is Yoan Moncada's (.258/.334/.442/.776) career per 162 game totals

Player B is Nick Madrigal's (.321/.367/.365/.732) career per 162 game totals

Edited April 21, 2021 by Greg Hibbard

[caulfield12]

36 minutes ago, hi8is said:

He always signs with a cross and makes three dots.

So God is on his side, too?  Doesn’t always work for Notre Dame in big games...but Jesus, definitely a HoF type quality person, that’s for sure.

Edited April 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[reiks12]

4 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm not foolish enough to make bold predictions about how good he will be in the future, things can change.  What I will say is that so far he is nothing as advertised and you can use the eye test or metrics or both to say that with quite a bit of confidence.  And to answer your prior question of COURSE that is what we were sold by scouting reports, the White Sox FO and the media.  Like, he wasn't advertised as a toolsy freak like TA boom or bust type.  He was a low ceiling high floor pick.

Did TA live up to the hype in his first couple of years? Did Moncada? Did Eloy? How about Robert last season and his magnificent slump? Hows Vaughn doing this season?

[South Side Hit Men]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's actually not, and it's not rubbish to use historical outcomes to compare and project future outcomes. That's literally how ever projection model is built.

We get that you're the greatest hindsight general manager in the history of the world, but sadly you're not running the White Sox and we're stuck with these fake professionals that don't have your HOF eye for talent.

More rubbish. A class can be stacked with prospects or weak, the only thing which can be factually evaluated is did a team use their pick on the best player based on players available that year. Your Kelenic post is ridiculous as well, he is only down due to the fact that they are manipulating his service clock, he is projected to be a superior player. 

It doesn’t take “hindsight” to realize when you have a four year window before contracts expire on your core, it’s idiotic to commit more than 1/4 of the period’s payroll on two overpriced veterans outbidding only themselves, necessitating trips to The Dollar Store the remaining three off-seasons, and or burning prospects for blue light special cheap contracts because “the money has been spent”.

The “fake professionals” have led the Sox to the second worst record in MLB since Hahn was named GM. They’ve been poor at drafting the past two decades, also among the worst at external free agent acquisitions. Even Jerry’s other failed Gar Pax FO duo was able to surpass that, dare I say Madrigal sized low bar / threshold.

[VAfan]

It is way to early to draw conclusions about Nick Madrigal.  He's still essentially a rookie. 

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

Did TA live up to the hype in his first couple of years? Did Moncada? Did Eloy? How about Robert last season and his magnificent slump? Hows Vaughn doing this season?

Overreactions on the Madrigal discussions here might be the most embarrassing thing I can remember seeing play out here as long as I have viewed this site. The meathead takes on him and bias against him is just so out of control. 

I am fully willing to admit his future could turn out like what detractors suggest, but it is TOO EARLY. Period. No one has any fucking patience anymore.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Taking the grand total column of the grid, let's compare player A to player B

Player A: 217 strikeouts, 242 field outs, 68 BB, 98 singles, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 22 home runs =  4.05

Player B: 32 strikeouts, 350 field outs, 29 BB, 158 singles, 18 doubles, 4 triples, 0 home runs =  -3.96

Player A is Yoan Moncada's (.258/.334/.442/.776) career per 162 game totals

Player B is Nick Madrigal's (.321/.367/.365/.732) career per 162 game totals

I'll take your word for it. PTs are not known for math skills and I am the epitome of that.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

More rubbish. A class can be stacked with prospects or weak, the only thing which can be factually evaluated is did a team use their pick on the best player based on players available that year. Your Kelenic post is ridiculous as well, he is only down due to the fact that they are manipulating his service clock, he is projected to be a superior player. 

It doesn’t take “hindsight” to realize when you have a four year window before contracts expire on your core, it’s idiotic to commit more than 1/4 of the period’s payroll on two overpriced veterans outbidding only themselves, necessitating trips to The Dollar Store the remaining three off-seasons, and or burning prospects for blue light special cheap contracts because “the money has been spent”.

The “fake professionals” have led the Sox to the second worst record in MLB since Hahn was named GM. They’ve been poor at drafting the past two decades, also among the worst at external free agent acquisitions. Even Jerry’s other failed Gar Pax FO duo was able to surpass that, dare I say Madrigal sized low bar / threshold.

This is just flat out wrong.

Jered Kelenic projection as of today, using STEAMER is .3 fWAR, with a slash line of 237/300/403 over 385 AB's.

Madrigal projection when he was first called up was that of a 2.5 fWAR player, and even now (after his 45 game sample) he's still projected at 1.6 fWAR ROS with a wOBA of 319 over 491 AB's.

Pre-debut, Madrigal projected to be better than Kelenic (obviously at a more developed age).

Kelenic is younger and has a higher ceiling, sure, but this proclamation that he's some can't miss superstar on this forum is laughably wrong. He may be a great player, and he's a talented kid, but he is not projected to be a superior player as of today and saying otherwise just isn't true. Again age matters, but Madrigal had a higher wRC+ at AA than Kelenic did.

The Sox have not been poor at drafting for two decades either, that's another completely false proclamation. You're full of those though.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

57 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Overreactions on the Madrigal discussions here might be the most embarrassing thing I can remember seeing play out here as long as I have viewed this site. The meathead takes on him and bias against him is just so out of control. 

I am fully willing to admit his future could turn out like what detractors suggest, but it is TOO EARLY. Period. No one has any fucking patience anymore.

Wouldn't be a very fun message board if we had to wait until it was "acceptable" to talk about a player's performance.  What you think we should aim for before we can discuss a player's performance?  Maybe 5 years, hell, maybe retirement?  Then we will really have the full picture.

[Greg Hibbard]

41 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I'll take your word for it. PTs are not known for math skills and I am the epitome of that.

Haha, this took me forever. I got out my abacus

I think where I'm arriving in this thread is that even with extremely low strikeout totals, given the stats we're looking at, it seems like we need Nick to come in with either a .400 OBP (with a .370 SLG) or a .400 SLG (with a .370 OBP)  in order to be a good enough *offensive* piece (defense aside). 

To get to .400 SLG, with 0 home runs, hitting .320, he has to hit 7 triples and 34 home runs per 162, which is why the lack of home runs really concerns me. 

In other words, when you hit 0 home runs, you have to have a REALLY high average, a REALLY high obp, and hit a LOT of doubles and triples..

 

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Greg Hibbard

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Haha, this took me forever. I got out my abacus

I think where I'm arriving in this thread is that even with extremely low strikeout totals, given the stats we're looking at, it seems like we need Nick to come in with either a .400 OBP (with a .370 SLG) or a .400 SLG (with a .370 OBP)  in order to be a good enough *offensive* piece (defense aside). 

To get to .400 SLG, with 0 home runs, hitting .320, he has to hit 7 triples and 34 home runs per 162, which is why the lack of home runs really concerns me. 

In other words, when you hit 0 home runs, you have to have a REALLY high average, a REALLY high obp, and hit a LOT of doubles and triples..

 

 

With the progression of pitching dominance I would disagree with this. He's 8% than league average with the bat right now with a 708 OPS. A 770 OPS (ignoring other factors into wRC+) is about 15% better than league average this year.

If Madrigal could be 10% better than league average with the bat while correcting his base running and defensive woes he would be a valuable player. Especially when you analyze the fact that his contact tool is an 80 so he does a few additional little things on offense that won't really be accounted for in a metric.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Did TA live up to the hype in his first couple of years? Did Moncada? Did Eloy? How about Robert last season and his magnificent slump? Hows Vaughn doing this season?

Yes, mostly, his first year (compared to expectations, which were so much higher for those other three you listed)...but huge sophomore slump.

Not quite like Beckham's first 4+ months, but it was solid, comparable to Eloy his rookie year.

Edited April 22, 2021 by caulfield12

[RagahRagah]

51 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Wouldn't be a very fun message board if we had to wait until it was "acceptable" to talk about a player's performance.  What you think we should aim for before we can discuss a player's performance?  Maybe 5 years, hell, maybe retirement?  Then we will really have the full picture.

5 years is apparently the same as less than half a full season? What in the actual fuck are some of you thinking? This absurd reaction is indicative of someone who has never watched baseball before. Like every top prospect comes up, immediately reaches their ceiling and plays like a machine with no nervousness, mistakes or needed adjustments.

Like I said... meatball nonsense. 

Edited April 22, 2021 by RagahRagah

[Greg Hibbard]

18 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

With the progression of pitching dominance I would disagree with this. He's 8% than league average with the bat right now with a 708 OPS. A 770 OPS (ignoring other factors into wRC+) is about 15% better than league average this year.

If Madrigal could be 10% better than league average with the bat while correcting his base running and defensive woes he would be a valuable player. Especially when you analyze the fact that his contact tool is an 80 so he does a few additional little things on offense that won't really be accounted for in a metric.

That's a good point, but I would counter that at least this season's portion of Nick's sample size is in cold spring months (and maybe a few were in colder fall games last year), though. While I agree about the ascension of pitching, do you think he will be 8% better than league average when sluggers are launching home runs all June and July and August during 90 degree weather? 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

That's a good point, but I would counter that at least this season's portion of Nick's sample size is in cold spring months (and maybe a few were in colder fall games last year), though. While I agree about the ascension of pitching, do you think he will be 8% better than league average when sluggers are launching home runs all June and July and August during 90 degree weather? 

But you can also make the argument that he will hitting a lot more doubles and a few triples in the warmer months...and running better.

He's used to playing the majority of his games in California/Pac-12 weather, let's not forget.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is just flat out wrong.

Jered Kelenic projection as of today, using STEAMER is .3 fWAR, with a slash line of 237/300/403 over 385 AB's.

Madrigal projection when he was first called up was that of a 2.5 fWAR player, and even now (after his 45 game sample) he's still projected at 1.6 fWAR ROS with a wOBA of 319 over 491 AB's.

Pre-debut, Madrigal projected to be better than Kelenic (obviously at a more developed age).

Kelenic is younger and has a higher ceiling, sure, but this proclamation that he's some can't miss superstar on this forum is laughably wrong. He may be a great player, and he's a talented kid, but he is not projected to be a superior player as of today and saying otherwise just isn't true. Again age matters, but Madrigal had a higher wRC+ at AA than Kelenic did.

The Sox have not been poor at drafting for two decades either, that's another completely false proclamation. You're full of those though.

It’s hard to go lower than 0% accurate, but you managed to top yourself.

Three year projections, or is this Madrigal’s last season as he rides with Tony and David Eckstein into the sunset. Mendick, a backup at best, has bested Madrigal the past two seasons.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarred-kelenic/sa3007741/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

Are you disputing the USA Today’s 22 year MLB Draft analysis? Anything to counter? 

Don’t give up Oak Park Ray, one decade, perhaps this one, you’ll be tall enough to enjoy the ride and perhaps have an accurate post.

Pac 12 Baseball, clap, clap, clap clap clap!

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, South Side Hit Men said:

It’s hard to go lower than 0% accurate, but you managed to top yourself.

Three year projections, or is this Madrigal’s last season as he rides with Tony and David Eckstein into the sunset. Mendick, a backup at best, has bested Madrigal the past two seasons.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarred-kelenic/sa3007741/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

Are you disputing the USA Today’s 22 year MLB Draft analysis? Anything to counter? 

Don’t give up Oak Park Ray, one decade, perhaps this one, you’ll be tall enough to enjoy the ride and perhaps have an accurate post.

Pac 12 Baseball, clap, clap, clap clap clap!

Oak Park Ray sounds like a caller into the Cubs' post-game show on The Score...