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4-18 GT: Sox @ Boston - Game 1 (12:10pm)

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Chicago White Sox Grand Master

Chicago White Sox

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Alright guys, in terms of “must win” games, this is about as close as they come in mid April.  The Sox currently sit 6-8 on the season and are 2.5 games beyond the Royals for 1st place.  The good news is the Twins are also off to a sluggish start and have an identical 6-8 record to us.  While it’s still super early no doubt, losing the first game of this double header puts us in a tough spot given the fact a less reliable pitcher will likely be starting game 2 (Stiever / Lopez).  To eliminate the chance of ending today with a 6-10 record, Keuchel needs to bring his A game, both eating a considerable amount of innings and getting us a win.

Unfortunately for us, Dallas is off to a rough start with a 5.44 FIP and xwOBA in the 20th %tile so far on the season.  It’s really hard to draw too many conclusions based on three starts, but Dallas is seeing unusual increases in his BB & HR rates and has really been beaten up on his bread & butter sinker.  Looking at his Statcast figures, his stuff & movement pretty much look consistent with previous seasons, so I think we’re simply seeing a guy rounding into form after a limited camp.  That being said, he does need to figure out his shit and soon.  He’ll never be the 1.99 ERA guy we saw last year, but we do need him to consistently give us around six solid innings and that’s critical now more than ever with heavy bullpen workload expected for game two.

For the Red Sox will Tanner Houck, a 24 year old former 1st round pick who will making his fifth major league starter.  His arsenal is built around his four seamer (92 to 95 MPH) and slider with a sinker also in the mix.  The slider is his primary weapon with a nasty 56% whiff rate this year in a small sample size.  Sox right-handed hitters are really going to struggle today if they don’t lay off this pitch down & away, which puts even more pressure on our left-handed bats to do some damage.

On paper this is a scary matchup despite us facing a rookie, but the Sox have typically played well when their backs are against the wall.  If Dallas can improve his command and limit his mistakes, I think the Sox can steal game 1, but that also requires the offense to start hitting with runners in scoring position.  Can’t keep throwing away opportunities and expect to win non Lucas / Lance starts.  Hopefully today we start seeing some much needed regression to the mean in that area.

Let’s fucking go!

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T R U
T R U

Bummer looked pretty good, seemed to be another case of soxtalk overreaction over a fucking single 

caulfield12
caulfield12

Agreed. They need to protect both Vaughn and in all likelihood Crochet after rushing them.  Something is not quite right with either player...we can diagnose from the living room couch, but it ne

caulfield12
caulfield12

One team just made the World Series.  The other is the winningest in MLB history.     The White Sox, otoh, have lost 20 of their last 30...and are completely unproven against the best teams in

caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright guys, in terms of “must win” games, this is about as close as they come in mid April.  The Sox currently sit 6-8 on the season and are 2.5 games beyond the Royals for 1st place.  The good news is the Twins are also off to a sluggish start and have an identical 6-8 record to us.  While it’s still super early no doubt, losing the first game of this double header puts us in a tough spot given the fact a less reliable pitcher will likely be starting game 2 (Stiever / Lopez).  To eliminate the chance of ending today with a 6-10 record, Keuchel needs to bring his A game, both eating a considerable amount of innings and getting us a win.

Unfortunately for us, Dallas is off to a rough start with a 5.44 FIP and xwOBA in the 20th %tile so far on the season.  It’s really hard to draw too many conclusions based on three starts, but Dallas is seeing unusual increases in his BB & HR rates and has really been beaten up on his bread & butter sinker.  Looking at his Statcast figures, his stuff & movement pretty much look consistent with previous seasons, so I think we’re simply seeing a guy rounding into form after a limited camp.  That being said, he does need to figure out his shit and soon.  He’ll never be the 1.99 ERA guy we saw last year, but we do need him to consistently give us around six solid innings and that’s critical now more than ever with heavy bullpen workload expected for game two.

For the Red Sox will Tanner Houck, a 24 year old former 1st round pick who will making his fifth major league starter.  His arsenal is built around his four seamer (92 to 95 MPH) and slider with a sinker also in the mix.  The slider is his primary weapon with a nasty 56% whiff rate this year in a small sample size.  Sox right-handed hitters are really going to struggle today if they don’t lay off this pitch down & away, which puts even more pressure on our left-handed bats to do some damage.

On paper this is a scary matchup despite us facing a rookie, but the Sox have typically played well when their backs are against the wall.  If Dallas can improve his command and limit his mistakes, I think the Sox can steal game 1, but that also requires the offense to start hitting with runners in scoring position.  Can’t keep throwing away opportunities and expect to win non Lucas / Lance starts.  Hopefully today we start seeing some much needed regression to the mean in that area.

Let’s fucking go!

You might as well add Rodon into the must overperform/stay healthy list in order for us to tread water while waiting for reinforcements.

OR better hitting with RISP, bullpen, defense and managing.

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Chicago White Sox Grand Master

Chicago White Sox

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You might as well add Rodon into the must overperform/stay healthy list in order for us to tread water while waiting for reinforcements.

OR better hitting with RISP, bullpen, defense and managing.

I’m still in a holding pattern when it comes to needing reinforcements.  In terms of pitching, we’re second overall with 2.9 fWAR and a 3.03 FIP on the season.  Gioltio & Lynn are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the AL.  Rodon looks much improved and can hopefully at least anchor the back end of our rotation if he can stay healthy.  Dallas will eventually find himself and give us #3 or at worst #4 starter production.  Cease is still a work in progress, but has flashed a bit better stuff IMO, even if the command is still way too inconsistent.  Depth is definitely a concern, but at least Kopech looks like the real deal and a guy who should hopefully replace the weakest link come July or so.  As for the bullpen, the core in place (Hendriks, Bummer, Heuer, Crochet, Marshall) looks legit to me.  Yes, we can look to improve over Ruiz and potentially Foster, but it’s not a huge need at the moment.  If we add any pitching reinforcements, it will certainly be at the deadline and not any sooner.

The positional side is a different story.  If we’re unwilling to play Vaughn everyday in LF, then we should be actively looking at external options to solve the problem.  Adam Engel is a solid 4th OF who will likely be exposed by playing everyday.  I’ve mentioned the name before, but snagging someone like Kole Calhoun makes a ton of sense if he can be acquired at a reasonable price.  Regardless, LF is the one spot an everyday player could be added.  I would still be looking to add a versatile left-handed infielder to the mix as well.  I’m not going to write off Madrigal anytime soon, but our IF has a history of getting injured and I really don’t want to count on Leury or Mendick to face that much RHP.  In all honesty, we need more left-handed bats and ones that can actually play multiple positions unlike Jake Lamb.  I do hope if they plan on adding, they don’t wait until July.  While I still have faith this offense will come around with the weather, it’s painfully clear our depth is paper thin and we’re going to struggle to survive when our core guys are all slumping like they are currently.

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m still in a holding pattern when it comes to needing reinforcements.  In terms of pitching, we’re second overall with 2.9 fWAR and a 3.03 FIP on the season.  Gioltio & Lynn are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the AL.  Rodon looks much improved and can hopefully at least anchor the back end of our rotation if he can stay healthy.  Dallas will eventually find himself and give us #3 or at worst #4 starter production.  Cease is still a work in progress, but has flashed a bit better stuff IMO, even if the command is still way too inconsistent.  Depth is definitely a concern, but at least Kopech looks like the real deal and a guy who should hopefully replace the weakest link come July or so.  As for the bullpen, the core in place (Hendriks, Bummer, Heuer, Crochet, Marshall) looks legit to me.  Yes, we can look to improve over Ruiz and potentially Foster, but it’s not a huge need at the moment.  If we add any pitching reinforcements, it will certainly be at the deadline and not any sooner.

The positional side is a different story.  If we’re unwilling to play Vaughn everyday in LF, then we should be actively looking at external options to solve the problem.  Adam Engel is a solid 4th OF who will likely be exposed by playing everyday.  I’ve mentioned the name before, but snagging someone like Kole Calhoun makes a ton of sense if he can be acquired at a reasonable price.  Regardless, LF is the one spot an everyday player could be added.  I would still be looking to add a versatile left-handed infielder to the mix as well.  I’m not going to write off Madrigal anytime soon, but our IF has a history of getting injured and I really don’t want to count on Leury or Mendick to face that much RHP.  In all honesty, we need more left-handed bats and ones that can actually play multiple positions unlike Jake Lamb.  I do hope if they plan on adding, they don’t wait until July.  While I still have faith this offense will come around with the weather, it’s painfully clear our depth is paper thin and we’re going to struggle to survive when our core guys are all slumping like they are currently.

Agreed.

They need to protect both Vaughn and in all likelihood Crochet after rushing them.  Something is not quite right with either player...we can diagnose from the living room couch, but it needs to be addressed.

The massive drop off from McCann to Collins has happened as pretty much everyone who looks at spring training realistically predicted.

Engel with pressure to pick up the slack offensively doesn't work like Adam the complementary spare part/platoon guy.

 

Sincere doubts whether Hahn can pull off the right move to get us to the end of July.  Realistically, it’s 50% relying on the Twins or Indians to implode or suffer their own set of injuries, but that’s not the mindset of a real playoff contender with killer instincts.

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I love must-win games in April.  Looks like the Yankees & Rays also have must-win games today as well.  Terrible part is they are playing each other!  One team is toast today

One team just made the World Series.  The other is the winningest in MLB history.  
 

The White Sox, otoh, have lost 20 of their last 30...and are completely unproven against the best teams in the East and West of both leagues.

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ChiSox59 Grand Master

ChiSox59

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33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

One team just made the World Series.  The other is the winningest in MLB history.  
 

The White Sox, otoh, have lost 20 of their last 30...and are completely unproven against the best teams in the East and West of both leagues.

What happened last year irrelevant at this point. 

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ptatc Grand Master

ptatc

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24 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

White Sox have swept their last 2 DHs at Fenway. Also 30 years ago today Comiskey Park II opened.  I was there for the 16-0 loss to the Tigers.

I was there too. Sitting so high it was in seats that don't exist anymore.

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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32 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What happened last year irrelevant at this point. 

That’s even scarier.

The 32-15 start last year is the main thing holding together the current belief that we might still be one of the three best teams in the AL.  Because the positive additions of Lynn/Eaton/Mercedes are being cancelled out by...well, there’s zero point in rehashing all the things that are currently going awry. 

Or a century plus franchise history of not making the playoffs over two consecutive seasons.
 

 

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SonofaRoache Grand Master

SonofaRoache

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1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

I love must-win games in April.  Looks like the Yankees & Rays also have must-win games today as well.  Terrible part is they are playing each other!  One team is toast today

Well, both of those teams have had some real good success lately so they get leeway. 

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

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1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

Well, both of those teams have had some real good success lately so they get leeway. 

Apparently someone is unfamiliar with the track record of taking one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and consistently turning it into post season appearances it was is most often the toughest division in baseball.

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Jerksticks Grand Master

Jerksticks

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That’s even scarier.

The 32-15 start last year is the main thing holding together the current belief that we might still be one of the three best teams in the AL.  Because the additions of Lynn/Eaton/Mercedes are being cancelled out by...well, there’s zero point in rehashing all the things that are currently going awry. 

For you maybe.  
 

For me it’s the insane amount of absolutely tip-top premium talent at almost every position.  

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