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Theories as to why offense behind pitching so far?


bmags

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this has felt like same issue in college baseball as well, contact way harder for bats right now.

I wonder if this is a product of fresher arms that will eventually deaden, or if pitching dev and tech has taken a leap and hitters haven’t adjusted yet.

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Something that underscores this, we’d all say abreus had a really weak start, but even prior to yesterday’s home run he was actually an above average offensive player this season. Just a ton of bad so far.

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22 minutes ago, bmags said:

Something that underscores this, we’d all say abreus had a really weak start, but even prior to yesterday’s home run he was actually an above average offensive player this season. Just a ton of bad so far.

Yeah His OPS+ was 114 when his OPS was like .720. I stopped being worried about the white sox offense when I realized how truly bad it is out there and they are faring quite well. 
 

as to why, it seems like velo is up considerably this year, and I do think they deadened the ball in a way that increases drag which I would intuit to mean pitches would move more as well. 

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12 minutes ago, mqr said:

Yeah His OPS+ was 114 when his OPS was like .720. I stopped being worried about the white sox offense when I realized how truly bad it is out there and they are faring quite well. 
 

as to why, it seems like velo is up considerably this year, and I do think they deadened the ball in a way that increases drag which I would intuit to mean pitches would move more as well. 

Hadn’t thought about that, would be interesting if that is the case re: drag

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4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Hadn’t thought about that, would be interesting if that is the case re: drag

Yeah, I mean I’m just spitballing, but if drag creates break it would make sense that increased drag increases break. 
 

But no idea if they did it to the point that there’s enough drag to make a difference over 60 feet. 

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1. The ball; it seems to be effecting fly balls more which is hurting runs scored. There really isn't a huge difference between this April and last year when it comes to swStr% or contact %. It's definitely slightly down, by around .4%, but it's not dramatic.

2. Velocity. I thought pitchers would benefit from the shortened season last year and so far they may have. Time will tell. Every tick in velo is going to be a slight tick up in k rate and a tick down in contact %. Velo is likely up a bit because of the continued rise of the reliever.

3. Bullpens and IP/start. The trend continues as fewer starters are ever able to see a lineup 3 times. I find it fascinating that offense is WAY down, meaning pitching has been good, but the avg starter is barely over 5 IP/start. This means that despite good performances, arms are just getting the hook.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 2. Velocity. I thought pitchers would benefit from the shortened season last year and so far they may have. Time will tell. Every tick in velo is going to be a slight tick up in k rate and a tick down in contact %. Velo is likely up a bit because of the continued rise of the reliever.

I know this isn't what you meant, but I wonder if this gets counteracted later in the season as more pitchers than usual hit the injured list with arm issues as a byproduct of last season 

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5 hours ago, bmags said:

this has felt like same issue in college baseball as well, contact way harder for bats right now.

I wonder if this is a product of fresher arms that will eventually deaden, or if pitching dev and tech has taken a leap and hitters haven’t adjusted yet.

Shifting has a lot to do with it also and early in the season the pitchers are usually ahead of the hitters . What I'm not getting if that tweet is stating yearly totals or comparing the 1st 4 weeks of the season to the first 4 weeks of other seasons. Need more info. If he's just comparing 4 weeks of this season with 2008 well it seems pretty random and everyone knows K's are rising a lot the last approx 10 years , so he's not stating anything earth shattering.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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The one thing that frustrates me about this offense right now is it goes down real easy in some innings. Weak grounders and things are over after 10 pitches. The opposing doesn't break a sweat, and if you go to the frig for anything, the inning is over by the time you get back. But I've seen other years where the offense is much worse, and this team can hit the opposition with three or four homers in about any game.

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14 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Sox Launch angle is a big thing now, and launch angle helps less when it's cold.

But if you look at teams above  and below the . 232 average, hot weather teams and cold weather teams are pretty split.  For example, Red Sox  and White Sox are  1 &  3 and both are colder cities than Arizona, Atlanta, Tampa and Toronto which are all below average.  But Maybe teams that don't preach launch angle, if there are any,  could skew the numbers. 

I think shifts and the move to nerdy baseball  is the main cause

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1 hour ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Yeah, for as frustrating as our hitting has been with (plug in the name: Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Leury...), I just saw that we are now 3rd in MLB in AVG, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in OPS. I would never have guessed.

Yeah haha for me the reason I posted this is because I felt like sox were underperforming than learned that we were one of the best offenses, and teams like the braves have been ice cold.

But also it just matched what felt like was happening in college baseball where the top hitters have just not felt near as prolific and really struggling with k rates relative to prior. 

I'd gather a part of it is I'm sure many avoided winter leagues, and it is much easier for hitters to train in isolation than hitters.

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46 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

My theory is a lot more negative.... 

 

The Astros weren't the only team sneaky signs, they're just the one's that got caught.... 

This would not suprise me. With the amount of money involved in MLB  I imagine those a stake in it would explore any edge they can get.

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27 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

This would not suprise me. With the amount of money involved in MLB  I imagine those a stake in it would explore any edge they can get.

I think the Minnesotta Twins offense from 2019 (career years for literally every hitter) compared to 2020 and 2021 is pretty telling.. Oh and by the way, in 2019 Marwin Gonzalez was with the Twins for his first year... hmmmmmmmmmmm

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3 hours ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Yeah, for as frustrating as our hitting has been with (plug in the name: Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Leury...), I just saw that we are now 3rd in MLB in AVG, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in OPS. I would never have guessed.

Sox are 20th in ISO, which is why it seems like the offense is worse than it is. The success is being driven by a high AVG and BB total.

Cubs are 3rd in ISO but 11th in OPS. They're hitting almost nothing but homers.

I'd much rather have the high AVG and BB and hope the ISO comes along rather than be maxed out on ISO and having to improve on AVG and BB.

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