The TLR Manager Thread

[Vulture]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

That's the thing. If you put Billy Hamilton in LF and Leury Garcia in CF right now (as is happening fairly often) and had them bat 1-2 every day.......there is no chance in hell that doesn't cost the Sox multiple wins over a season. 

Or imagine Anderson/Mercedes at 8-9. That’s going to cost a hell of a lot more than ten runs

 

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Tango himself. And since he posted that over 15 years ago pretty much all the research that has followed.  At best you're talking 15 runs, as Tango himself said in that thread, "some people consider that a lot, others nothing".  It's about one win at best either way.  I'm in the "not a lot" category.  Get good players, it really doesn't matter how you line them up.

I don’t see where he proves the claim in your link

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Or imagine Anderson/Mercedes at 8-9. That’s going to cost a hell of a lot more than ten runs

 

I don’t see where he proves the claim in your link

I'm not your slave go google the shit yourself.  It's one of the least controversial topics in sabermetrics.

[Vulture]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm not your slave go google the shit yourself.  It's one of the least controversial topics in sabermetrics.

You were demanding a source, but you don’t want to provide actual source for your own claim. Why didn’t you tell yourself to google the shit yourself in the first place then?

[chitownsportsfan]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except Tony himself is batting inferior players in place of superior hitters, such as Billy Hamilton for Andrew Vaughn, so he really isn't even using "good players"

Except from all indications he's setting Vaughn up for success and letting the rookie, who has never played above high A, get plenty of rest and film work in between ABs.  Look, I'm not gonna sit here and say that TLR is some tactical genius, in fact he's a moron tactically, but he was brought in here to win and so far he's winning.  For all the whining about how TA would hate him, Jose would hate him, so far those guys seem to enjoy playing for him.  It's a pass fail grade for Tony.  His grade will be completed in the Fall.

[Harry Chappas]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except Tony himself is batting inferior players in place of superior hitters, such as Billy Hamilton for Andrew Vaughn, so he really isn't even using "good players"

And that has tempered off.  They went from a  team that could not get past Yonder, Jon Jay and Edwin Encarnacion to moving past guys that suck.  Maybe not soon enough but he has a roster that he is still learning and is trying to use it.

He is giving younger players opportunities.  Opportunities that were not given in previous years when the team sucked.  He is moving guys in the lineup, something that was not done previously.   

Nobody knows if he is doing anything but some of the sloopy play has been cleaned up and they are pointing in the right direction as a team as of today.

This team gave away bats often, never worked counts and gave two shits about OBP. 

I have felt that the White Sox approach to hitting for years has been abysmal and there seems to be a change there.  Maybe LaRussa or maybe year 2 of the hitting coach.

I'm seeing a guy that is figuring his team out and managing who can do what.

Seems the Giants aren't missing Bochy and the AJ Hinch is not a miracle worker.  Could both have the White Sox in a better place.....maybe but I am ok where they are now. 

I like professional hitting, good pitching and solid defense and they seem to be building toward having all of that.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Harry Chappas

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Vulture said:

You were demanding a source, but you don’t want to provide actual source for your own claim. Why didn’t you tell yourself to google the shit yourself in the first place then?

You're not worth my time it's like asking someone to prove the sky is blue and then when I cite the chemical composition of the sky and why it appears blue to the human eye you then ask if anyone can really define "blue".  

But since you insist:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/be-cautious-with-lineup-analysis-tool/

https://walkoffwalk.net/2018/03/14/lineup-optimization-will-matter-2018/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-significant-is-batting-order/

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except Tony himself is batting inferior players in place of superior hitters, such as Billy Hamilton for Andrew Vaughn, so he really isn't even using "good players"

This is also the point every citing lineup analysis is ignoring entirely.

In Tango's research he is assuming you are starting your 9 best players and when he says lineup construction he means the batting order; not the personnel. Tony was legitimately starting lesser players nightly which has a much larger impact on expected runs. The batting order itself is relatively meaningless as sequencing is pretty non-predictive, but batting the WRONG players has a significant impact on runs scored over the duration of a season.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Except from all indications he's setting Vaughn up for success and letting the rookie, who has never played above high A, get plenty of rest and film work in between ABs.  Look, I'm not gonna sit here and say that TLR is some tactical genius, in fact he's a moron tactically, but he was brought in here to win and so far he's winning.  For all the whining about how TA would hate him, Jose would hate him, so far those guys seem to enjoy playing for him.  It's a pass fail grade for Tony.  His grade will be completed in the Fall.

Man, you really just make things up.

1. Show a link that he is giving Vaughn "rest for additional film work between AB's" LOL
2. Hitting is a rhythm game, playing everyday has immense value for finding your rhythm and your place in the batters box. Sitting Vaughn constantly does nothing but harm that rhythm and his development.
3. Where has Tim said he enjoyed playing for him since the season started?
4. Jose Abreu would say he enjoyed playing for Terry Bevington - that's just who Jose is.

 

[Dominikk85]

9 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Or imagine Anderson/Mercedes at 8-9. That’s going to cost a hell of a lot more than ten runs

 

I don’t see where he proves the claim in your link

Line up position almost doesn't matter. Best vs worst line up is maybe 1 or 2 wins. 

What matters more is who is actually in the lineup. 

In the beginning lamb and Hamilton did play too often but really in the last 10 days or so they mostly came off the bench.

 

I liked the last line ups but part of it was forced by injuries of course. 

[Harry Chappas]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is also the point every citing lineup analysis is ignoring entirely.

In Tango's research he is assuming you are starting your 9 best players and when he says lineup construction he means the batting order; not the personnel. Tony was legitimately starting lesser players nightly which has a much larger impact on expected runs. The batting order itself is relatively meaningless as sequencing is pretty non-predictive, but batting the WRONG players has a significant impact on runs scored over the duration of a season.

Which I agree 1000% with but at he same time the players that were been benched were unproven and being eased in.

If Vaughn had gone 0-35 and made 20 errors in left field people would be pining for Hamilton.  Tim Anderson was not being benched over Leury, nor Robert.  Players were being platooned to ease them in and it seems to be working. 

Pitching has been great but reliable guys have failed and that has exasperated the situation.

[Vulture]

14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You're not worth my time it's like asking someone to prove the sky is blue and then when I cite the chemical composition of the sky and why it appears blue to the human eye you then ask if anyone can really define "blue".  

But since you insist:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/be-cautious-with-lineup-analysis-tool/

https://walkoffwalk.net/2018/03/14/lineup-optimization-will-matter-2018/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-significant-is-batting-order/

Except you still haven’t provided the chemical composition. They’re just circularly referring back to the claim without further support. e.g. “We’re assuming the “five to fifteen” figure is basically correct for purposes of this post (and I have no reason to doubt that it is).”

None the less the author goes on to posit simply moving the ninth hitter to cleanup alone would cost 16 runs over course of season

Edited May 10, 2021 by Vulture

[Tony]

20 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Except from all indications he's setting Vaughn up for success and letting the rookie, who has never played above high A, get plenty of rest and film work in between ABs.  Look, I'm not gonna sit here and say that TLR is some tactical genius, in fact he's a moron tactically, but he was brought in here to win and so far he's winning.  For all the whining about how TA would hate him, Jose would hate him, so far those guys seem to enjoy playing for him.  It's a pass fail grade for Tony.  His grade will be completed in the Fall.

So just answer this simple question, I know you have the time. 

You said LAST NIGHT:

Quote

the 28th and 29th men are literally 2 WAR players in Mendick and Vaughn. You can't make this shit up. Like, this is an OOTP roster after you've been building for 3-4 years and making lopsided trade after lopsided trade with the AI.

You've spent the last 24 hours defending LaRussa, telling us to let it go, we're being too hard on him, that he's doing his job. At the same time, you're glowing about how insane this roster is. So the question is......what are you expectations of a manager? It seems like your bar is set incredibly low, seeing as you think LaRussa is a "moron tactically" but argue the roster he took over is incredible. And again, you mentioned how Tony's job is to "get guys ready to play" and we've had multiple reports from the most respected reporters in the game that multiple players feel like Tony isn't as prepared as he needs to be. 

So aside from this roster actually performing like it should.......what has Tony done that others managers, or basically any other human, wouldn't do that has helped this team win more games?  If they had no manager at all, or YOU were the manager...what do you think their record would be right now? 

You're talking out of your ass and you know it. 

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

We are leading baseball in run differential and yet we are only 4th in overall winning percentage.  We are 2 games behind our pythagorean number.  We could have been putting away teams with this hot streak, yet we are only a half a game ahead of a team that has $100,000,000 less in payroll than us.  While you point to downside flukes, you didn't mention that guys like Yermin, Rodon, and Cease aren't likely to keep up their fluke seasons either.  These things will balance out.  If we have a manager giving away games with his ignorance of the game in 2021, the team needs to be all of the more better to make up those extra games.

Look the whole idea behind Tony is that he would come in here and be a motivator, and he wouldn't make stupid mistakes.  Even if you don't believe Soxtalk on this topic, when you have NATIONAL writers mocking Tony's abilities AND reporting that the players themselves are wondering WTF their manager is doing, you SHOULD be able to open up your eyes and see that this team is winning in spite of their manager, and they could be doing even better with a capable MLB manager.

The sox have underperformed their run differential but they also have also outperformed their projections despite severe injuries. 

Fangraphs had them like an 87 win team pre season and with the injuries more like an 85 win team (fg says 68-62 rest of the way). 

 

I don't think TLR managed everything great and he did make some mistakes but really the sox play way better than their projection. 

 

So you could argue TLR makes the team lose more games than their run differential but you could also say he made them play to a higher run differential than their true talent. 

Often his lineups are criticised and there is something to that but the sox scored 5.13 runs so far vs 4.86 projected so it is clearly working so far. 

I do hope that Katz supports him with the pitching management though an intervenes when necessary as Tony indeed missed some decisions there. 

The last games it got better though and he pulled the trigger earlier, the last 6 games all starters were pulled before they reached 100 pitches, so maybe he is listening to some guys. 

[South Side Hit Men]

We can only speculate in terms of internal decision making, but I am giving Hahn credit for likely having serious conversation(s) with Tony last week when Hahn accompanied the team to Cincinnati. 

The Lamb LF platoon started the previous week ended. Mendick was brought up and given regular playing time. The starters seem to be better managed with Cease, Rodon and Lucas pulled before going over 100 pitches. 

Some people assume Tony is getting zero input from Hahn. Hahn may not be interceding at the same level as he did with Ricky, but he wouldn’t waste time traveling with the team if he wasn’t providing input to Tony. Would love to have been in on the discussion(s) after the Cinco de Mistakes 10th inning game.

[chitownsportsfan]

20 minutes ago, Tony said:

So just answer this simple question, I know you have the time. 

You said LAST NIGHT:

You've spent the last 24 hours defending LaRussa, telling us to let it go, we're being too hard on him, that he's doing his job. At the same time, you're glowing about how insane this roster is. So the question is......what are you expectations of a manager? It seems like your bar is set incredibly low, seeing as you think LaRussa is a "moron tactically" but argue the roster he took over is incredible. And again, you mentioned how Tony's job is to "get guys ready to play" and we've had multiple reports from the most respected reporters in the game that multiple players feel like Tony isn't as prepared as he needs to be. 

So aside from this roster actually performing like it should.......what has Tony done that others managers, or basically any other human, wouldn't do that has helped this team win more games?  If they had no manager at all, or YOU were the manager...what do you think their record would be right now? 

You're talking out of your ass and you know it. 

I really DGAF about "the most respected reporters in the game" have to say about TLR.  Because you know what?  Those guys don't know their ass from their elbow when it comes to judging the mood in the Sox' clubhouse.  You know what I do see?  I see TA dancing and hitting over 300 and playing the best defense he's played in years, probably since the stretch in 2018.  I see Moncada smiling, having fun, fucking with TA and rubbing Madrigal's little head and jumping into his pitcher's arms that just threw a no hitter.  I see Andrew Vaughn taking his walks, making diving plays in LF and saying himself that it's nice not having to worry about playing every day and having a chance to just watch the vets. I see a journeyman AAAA player that showed up late being handled about as well as he possibly can by his manager (who called him out in the media in a subtle, nuanced way I'd add) and who is the story of baseball so far.

 I see a team that is near 1st in every meaningful statistical category: pitching, defense, offense.  Surely the manager gets some credit for that.

 Sometimes the particle is both in and out of the box and it's a measurement problem us mere mortals haven't figured out yet.  TLR has been bad tactically and some of the credit for how great the Sox are playing goes to him.  There's the response you seemed to demand of me.

Edited May 10, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

37 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I really DGAF about "the most respected reporters in the game" have to say about TLR.  Because you know what?  Those guys don't know their ass from their elbow when it comes to judging the mood in the Sox' clubhouse.  You what I do see?  I see TA dancing and hitting over 300 and playing the best defense he's played in years, probably since the stretch in 2018.  I see Moncada smiling, having fun, fucking with TA and rubbing Madrigal's little head and jumping into his pitcher's arms that just threw a no hitter.  I see Andrew Vaughn taking his walks, making diving plays in LF and saying himself that it's nice not having to worry about playing every day and having a chance to just watch the vets. I see a journeyman AAAA player that showed up late being handled about as well as he possibly can by his manager (who called him out in the media in a subtle, nuanced way I'd add) and who is the story of baseball so far.

 I see a team that is near 1st in every meaningful statistical category: pitching, defense, offense.  Surely the manager gets some credit for that.

 Sometimes the particle is both in and out of the box and it's a measurement problem us mere mortals haven't figured out yet.  TLR has been bad tactically and some of the credit for how great the Sox are playing goes to him.  

Show one source that says Vaughn is happy to sit on the bench.

Also it is just hilarious to see this from you. All you did last year was blast Renteria every single day. He was the reason for all the failings .

Facts:
1. Renteria's team outperformed expectations by much more than this team is. Renteria had 2 starting pitchers last year too.
2. Everyone had fun on the team last year; in fact, you were mad because they were having "too much fun" but now fun is great according to you and a sign of great management.
3. TA danced last year, Moncada smiled last year, everyone who pitched out of the bullpen was lights out.

Yet last year all you did everyday was rip the manager. Now this year? Complete opposite and here you are citing reasons that were prevalent last year when you demanded the managers head.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Show one source that says Vaughn is happy to sit on the bench.

Also it is just hilarious to see this from you. All you did last year was blast Renteria every single day. He was the reason for all the failings .

Facts:
1. Renteria's team outperformed expectations by much more than this team is. Renteria had 2 starting pitchers last year too.
2. Everyone had fun on the team last year; in fact, you were made because they were having "too much fun" but now fun is great according to you and a sign of great management.
3. TA danced last year, Moncada smiled last year, everyone who pitched out of the bullpen was lights out.

Yet last year all you did everyday was rip the manager. Now this year? Complete opposite and here you are citing reasons that were prevalent last year when you demanded the managers head.

BOOM

[chitownsportsfan]

The team collapsed down the stretch last year and choked like a dog.  If that happens this year with TLR I'll be the 1st person here ripping him.  Until that happens I'm not going to rip him because that's literally the only thing that matters this year.  It's like ripping Doc Rivers after 40 games because of his rotations.  Wait until the playoffs, if the team doesn't win then, sure, rip him, but these managers are only here for one reason and it's to make the playoffs, however you do it, and then win in them.  And Ray for the love of god STFU you're one of the worst posters here and you constantly are super aggro about it.  I don't mention you for 2 weeks and all you do is respond to me over and over and over again.  You're in your 30s right?  That's just pathetic.

Edited May 10, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Dick Allen]

15 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The team collapsed down the stretch last year and choked like a dog.  If that happens this year with TLR I'll be the 1st person here ripping him.  Until that happens I'm not going to rip him because that's literally the only thing that matters this year.  It's like ripping Doc Rivers after 40 games because of his rotations.  Wait until the playoffs, if the team doesn't win then, sure, rip him, but these managers are only here for one reason and it's to make the playoffs, however you do it, and then win in them.  And Ray for the love of god STFU you're one of the worst posters here and you constantly are super aggro about it.  I don't mention you for 2 weeks and all you do is respond to me over and over and over again.  You're in your 30s right?  That's just pathetic.

Ricky made the playoffs with 2 starters. You rip managers and players all of the time. You're posts contradict each other all of the time, and you say others have no idea what they are talking about. It's really funny.

[hi8is]

I would like to petition the mods to rename this thread to, “Ruffled Panties.”

@southsider2k5 what say you?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

27 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The team collapsed down the stretch last year and choked like a dog.  If that happens this year with TLR I'll be the 1st person here ripping him.  Until that happens I'm not going to rip him because that's literally the only thing that matters this year.  It's like ripping Doc Rivers after 40 games because of his rotations.  Wait until the playoffs, if the team doesn't win then, sure, rip him, but these managers are only here for one reason and it's to make the playoffs, however you do it, and then win in them.  And Ray for the love of god STFU you're one of the worst posters here and you constantly are super aggro about it.  I don't mention you for 2 weeks and all you do is respond to me over and over and over again.  You're in your 30s right?  That's just pathetic.

And LaRussa is one of the worst managers in baseball, if not the worst. Me and Tony got something in common after all!

I don't mention posters either, I respond to posts... weird. I also don't let posters on the internet get me so angry that I have to rage at them and block them. I stick to the topic that is being discussed and disagree/agree when I see fit. Aggro is telling posters to STFU and not talk to you, not responding to a posts content. Hope that helps!

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Except from all indications he's setting Vaughn up for success and letting the rookie, who has never played above high A, get plenty of rest and film work in between ABs.  Look, I'm not gonna sit here and say that TLR is some tactical genius, in fact he's a moron tactically, but he was brought in here to win and so far he's winning.  For all the whining about how TA would hate him, Jose would hate him, so far those guys seem to enjoy playing for him.  It's a pass fail grade for Tony.  His grade will be completed in the Fall.

Part 1 isn't really setting him up for success, it is keeping him from experiencing high leverage early so that he can learn it and see if he swims or not.

Part 2, we don't really know.  We know there are whispers about player malcontent, we just don't know who they are.  Just because they aren't public, doesn't mean it is, or isn't Jose or TA.

[Angel Hernandez]

My worries about Tony forgetting how to manage after 10 years off are not big anymore. Hes doing well, albeit with one of the most talented rosters in the league.

 

He has a reputation of making sometimes great but other times head scratching decisions with the bullpen. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Angel Hernandez

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

Which I agree 1000% with but at he same time the players that were been benched were unproven and being eased in.

If Vaughn had gone 0-35 and made 20 errors in left field people would be pining for Hamilton.  Tim Anderson was not being benched over Leury, nor Robert.  Players were being platooned to ease them in and it seems to be working. 

Pitching has been great but reliable guys have failed and that has exasperated the situation.

But he hasn't, which is the point.  He has shown capable of what he has been asked to do, so there shouldn't be a problem with asking him to hit in a leverage situation in late innings.  Hell they are asking WAY more of him to be defending in LF, which he had never done before this year, than to be a hitter, which he has done everywhere he has ever been.

[southsider2k5]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The team collapsed down the stretch last year and choked like a dog.  If that happens this year with TLR I'll be the 1st person here ripping him.  Until that happens I'm not going to rip him because that's literally the only thing that matters this year.  It's like ripping Doc Rivers after 40 games because of his rotations.  Wait until the playoffs, if the team doesn't win then, sure, rip him, but these managers are only here for one reason and it's to make the playoffs, however you do it, and then win in them.  And Ray for the love of god STFU you're one of the worst posters here and you constantly are super aggro about it.  I don't mention you for 2 weeks and all you do is respond to me over and over and over again.  You're in your 30s right?  That's just pathetic.

The team following the starting pitching down the stretch last year.