The TLR Manager Thread

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Texsox said:

How much are you factoring Eaton's .200 average and 2 for 11 over the past week? 

How much are you factoring his HR and two walks...today? 

[harkness99]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

I think this is the source for a lot of us that are “critical” of LaRussa. It’s easy to say “It worked out so all is well.” But...

1. The move itself still didn’t “work out” It didn’t help them win the game the way they won it, and still gave away an out. 
2. We’re happy and fortunate the Sox pulled it out in the 9th. But those are the type of decisions that should give some pause moving forward. The Royals did everything they could to give the Sox the game today in the 8th and 9th. I don’t know if they’ll have luxury against the Yankees, Red Sox, Halos, etc. 

lol okay okay you want blood got it... i've been critical of larussa mostly - and the "it worked out so all is well" attitude or whatever - yeah sorry i don't see that at all.

 

I see most people being critical of him with only a few supporters.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by harkness99

[Texsox]

16 minutes ago, Tony said:

How much are you factoring his HR and two walks...today? 

A lot. Regression to the mean was my thinking. He just hasn’t had many two hit games the past couple of years. I don’t like Eaton in the 2 hole to begin with. I was clearly wrong today. He had a great day today with four quality ABs. He certainly deserves another day in that spot.
 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, Texsox said:

How much are you factoring Eaton's .200 average and 2 for 11 over the past week? 

I said I wanted him to swing away. I'm not factoring his recent stretch into it very much. It's a pretty small sample size . He's LH vs. RHP Wade Davis hopefully he can pull it to the right side and advance Tim to 3rd or get a hit and drive him in. I wasn't bothered that he bunted. I hoped it would work.. TLR let guys swing away all day and they stranded a bunch of guys so he played some small ball. I don't think that's so bad. It looks worse if he pops it up but you trust that he can get it done. He trusted some guys to get some clutch hits in the 8 previous innings and too many were stranded.Moncada blew through a stop sign trying to score the winning run so they were in pretty good position before that extra out.

[Texsox]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I said I wanted him to swing away. I'm not factoring his recent stretch into it very much. It's a pretty small sample size . He's LH vs. RHP Wade Davis hopefully he can pull it to the right side and advance Tim to 3rd or get a hit and drive him in. I wasn't bothered that he bunted. I hoped it would work.. TLR let guys swing away all day and they stranded a bunch of guys so he played some small ball. I don't think that's so bad. It looks worse if he pops it up but you trust that he can get it done. He trusted some guys to get some clutch hits in the 8 previous innings and too many were stranded.Moncada blew through a stop sign trying to score the winning run so they were in pretty good position before that extra out.

I was on the same track as you. I guess if you trust the guy to be in the two spot you should trust him to swing away. I have such a low opinion of Eaton I expected a couple foul bunts then a swinging third. So advancing the runner was a bonus. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

I was on the same track as you. I guess if you trust the guy to be in the two spot you should trust him to swing away. I have such a low opinion of Eaton I expected a couple foul bunts then a swinging third. So advancing the runner was a bonus. 

I think he's sucked for the last month because he was playing hurt a lot of times. He was supposed to have an off day on the day Robert got hurt when he seemed to be hurting badly and was K'ing a bunch. Lately his swing has looked better with some off days in the schedule . Engel's going on a rehab assignment soon so hopefully Leury is not used as much in the OF.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think he's sucked for the last month because he was playing hurt a lot of times. He was supposed to have an off day on the day Robert got hurt when he seemed to be hurting badly and was K'ing a bunch. Lately his swing has looked better with some off days in the schedule . Engel's going on a rehab assignment soon so hopefully Leury is not used as much in the OF.

Never thought I'd say this but we really need Engel back and healthy.  He adds another capable defensive OF and his bat has been tolerable lately.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Never thought I'd say this but we really need Engel back and healthy.  He adds another capable defensive OF and his bat has been tolerable lately.

Engel's got more pop than Hamilton and Leury put together. It's bad when Eaton is the leading HR hitter among any OF. Vaughn will catch him soon but adding one more HR guy into the mix will help, not to mention you should get near Hamilton-like defense from him. It would be great if Engel can come out smacking the ball all around the park . I do expect a fair amount of rust but hoping for instant offense.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I said I wanted him to swing away. I'm not factoring his recent stretch into it very much. It's a pretty small sample size . He's LH vs. RHP Wade Davis hopefully he can pull it to the right side and advance Tim to 3rd or get a hit and drive him in. I wasn't bothered that he bunted. I hoped it would work.. TLR let guys swing away all day and they stranded a bunch of guys so he played some small ball. I don't think that's so bad. It looks worse if he pops it up but you trust that he can get it done. He trusted some guys to get some clutch hits in the 8 previous innings and too many were stranded.Moncada blew through a stop sign trying to score the winning run so they were in pretty good position before that extra out.

Both plays weren’t smart (bunting or running home), though the first was intentional with time to think and the later an in the moment decision which possibly was sparked by the former.

I don’t see Moncada pressing and trying to score with no outs in that situation. With one out, a strikeout or popout for Grandal leaves him at 3rd with two out.

Speculation on my part, but logically it makes more sense why a runner would try to score with one out, but be more cautious with no outs. Too bad COVID restrictions continue to limit reporter access to the clubhouse, as Moncada could have explained his thought process.

Edited May 17, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[chitownsportsfan]

Game recognize game:

 

 

[Dominikk85]

I didn't like he didn't pinch hit for leury in the 8th. It worked since leury walked but really it should have been collins batting here. 

Not sure if Tony just looks at collins batting average and thinks "he is not really much better than leury" but collins definitely is a better hitter. Leury is not quite as bad as he showed this year (nobody is a. 500 ops expected guy like he was so far this year) but expected he is a mid 600s ops guy and collins should be an expected mid to high 700s ops guy. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Dominikk85

[35thstreetswarm]

I'm excited for Engel to return and think we need him, but I am worried that folks are building him up a little too much in their minds.  He doesn't exactly have a long track record of being a better-than-bench level player, and will be returning from a long absence. It wouldn't shock me if he comes back and is basically Leury.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

No one gives up outs with the might of TLR!

[poppysox]

14 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Engel's got more pop than Hamilton and Leury put together. It's bad when Eaton is the leading HR hitter among any OF. Vaughn will catch him soon but adding one more HR guy into the mix will help, not to mention you should get near Hamilton-like defense from him. It would be great if Engel can come out smacking the ball all around the park . I do expect a fair amount of rust but hoping for instant offense.

You and me both.

[southsider2k5]

I think the expectations for Engel might be getting out of line.  The kid hasn't had any playing time to speak of in a couple of months, and shouldn't be expected to be ready to hit the ground running when he gets back on the roster.  Even so, with as inconsistent as he has been in his short career, we have no idea what to expect from him, except for his  top notch defense in CF, which hasn't really been a problem.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think the expectations for Engel might be getting out of line.  The kid hasn't had any playing time to speak of in a couple of months, and shouldn't be expected to be ready to hit the ground running when he gets back on the roster.  Even so, with as inconsistent as he has been in his short career, we have no idea what to expect from him, except for his  top notch defense in CF, which hasn't really been a problem.

Leury has been really bad and is probably playing himself out of the primary CF role.  I've defended him but he's badly exposed as an everyday player and his glove isn't as good as Engel's imo.  Engel might be a decent 2 WAR CF if he can stay healthy, he turned a corner last year at the dish and I'm curious to see if he can keep it up.  That said, he's been hurt and there is no reason to rush him back or expect much production right off the bat.  He's going to have to knock some rust off.

[Bob Sacamano]

27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think the expectations for Engel might be getting out of line.  The kid hasn't had any playing time to speak of in a couple of months, and shouldn't be expected to be ready to hit the ground running when he gets back on the roster.  Even so, with as inconsistent as he has been in his short career, we have no idea what to expect from him, except for his  top notch defense in CF, which hasn't really been a problem.

When you've been trotting out Leury and Hamilton (along with Lamb) in the OF, the expectations aren't very high and it won't take a lot to be better. Hell, him hitting .230 would be better.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

When you've been trotting out Leury and Hamilton (along with Lamb) in the OF, the expectations aren't very high and it won't take a lot to be better. Hell, him hitting .230 would be better.

Which is interesting because he is a career .222 hitter.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Leury has been really bad and is probably playing himself out of the primary CF role.  I've defended him but he's badly exposed as an everyday player and his glove isn't as good as Engel's imo.  Engel might be a decent 2 WAR CF if he can stay healthy, he turned a corner last year at the dish and I'm curious to see if he can keep it up.  That said, he's been hurt and there is no reason to rush him back or expect much production right off the bat.  He's going to have to knock some rust off.

Everything you said is true. Stats support you defensively. Engel IS a much better OFer than Leury. I don't think one person has said anything that would constitute expectations being out of line . Lot's of people are interested to see if what Engel did last year, from what he absorbed from Menechino, can be duplicated. The only thing I am expecting is better  defense to start . Yes, eventually I expect Engel to hit more extra base hits than either Leury or Hamilton but that bar isn't high.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

When you've been trotting out Leury and Hamilton (along with Lamb) in the OF, the expectations aren't very high and it won't take a lot to be better. Hell, him hitting .230 would be better.

I divided Engels career into 2 parts:

2017 and 1st half of 2018 .    575 AB ,104 H  = .181 Batting Average, 22 doubles , 5 triples , 8 HR = 35 extra base hits

2nd half 2018, 2019, 2020     496 AB 128 H =.258 Batting Average , 21 doubles, 5 triples, 13 HR = 39 extra base hits.

79 less AB's for Engel from the 2nd half of 2018 through 2020. Despite that he has more extra base hits.

He still K's a lot and doesn't talk many walks , however when he puts the ball in play he makes good contact with power . His BABIP's for  2nd half of 2018 through 2020 are .364, .343 and .348 so he's been fairly consistent when he' makes contact it's usually good contact.

Which do we think is more relevant his stats from his 1st 575 AB's of his career or the last 496 AB's ? Pretty simple choice you take the more recent stats to give you a more realistic view.

This may help for anyone citing his career average.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Nobody has any business winning this much with this roster. La Russa is certainly getting the most out of his roster and should be credited as such.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Nobody has any business winning this much with this roster. La Russa is certainly getting the most out of his roster and should be credited as such.

Expected wins and losses with ten blown leads has the Sox at 27-13, or underperforming by -2 games.   Some would argue 28-12, even 29-11 were there for the taking, just in the first four on the road in Anaheim, one Mariners game in Seattle, one Detroit loss...the game Giolito was left out way too long when he was completely gassed, etc.

[Texsox]

Attitude is taking this team a long way.  I also give credit to Pujols who offered key praise that led to the veterans and leaders on the team giving him a chance. 

Don't stop believing

[CentralChamps21]

2 hours ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Nobody has any business winning this much with this roster. La Russa is certainly getting the most out of his roster and should be credited as such.

I think he is simultaneously getting the maximum out of players yet making strategic blunders that is minimizing the results of those efforts.

Winning this much with this roster is a product of 1) there was no superteam in the AL before the season started and 2) just about everybody is having injury problems.

[Harry Chappas]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Expected wins and losses with ten blown leads has the Sox at 27-13, or underperforming by -2 games.   Some would argue 28-12, even 29-11 were there for the taking, just in the first four on the road in Anaheim, one Mariners game in Seattle, one Detroit loss...the game Giolito was left out way too long when he was completely gassed, etc.

The Giolito game is interesting as he was left in too long but the bullpen has blown 10 leads so there is no way to prove that was a blunder and may have been the better move than going to a bullpen that cannot hold a lead.