Rodon

[Kyyle23]

21 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

this is what they did with sale, writing was on the wall that they never intended to lock sale up long term.  rode hard, put away wet.  looks like that's the trajectory for Rodon

Wait what?  Sale was locked up to a deal that went two more seasons when they dealt him, and the Sox were super careful with how they pitched him, if his arm showed any fatigue or if he complained of forearm tightness they rested him.  
 

if anyone did the "rode hard and put away wet" plan with him, it was Boston.  Chicago had him dial down his velocity to preserve his arm and he gave them 7 good years, Boston said throw as hard as you want and his arm blew up in 2.

[joejoesox]

29 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Wait what?  Sale was locked up to a deal that went two more seasons when they dealt him, and the Sox were super careful with how they pitched him, if his arm showed any fatigue or if he complained of forearm tightness they rested him.  
 

if anyone did the "rode hard and put away wet" plan with him, it was Boston.  Chicago had him dial down his velocity to preserve his arm and he gave them 7 good years, Boston said throw as hard as you want and his arm blew up in 2.

Sale threw 6 complete games in his final Sox year lol, could be wrong but I remember him throwing a ton of pitches that year also

[Kyyle23]

10 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Sale threw 6 complete games in his final Sox year lol, could be wrong but I remember him throwing a ton of pitches that year also

He was averaging around 107 pitches a game, considering he built his arm up exactly for that I'm really not seeing how they rode him hard.  His pitches per game is remarkably consistent that year 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=salech01&t=p&year=2016

and again, the White Sox always preached saving his arm, he goes to Boston and starts throwing 99 consistently again and his arm finally gives out.  Hard for me to say the White Sox played into that

[joejoesox]

isn't an AVERAGE of 107 pitches per game a lot though?

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, joesaiditstrue said:

isn't an AVERAGE of 107 pitches per game a lot though?

For an ace expected to go 7 plus every game, I don't think so.  

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

isn't an AVERAGE of 107 pitches per game a lot though?

Not at 85-90% of max velocity for most of the games except against tough hitters or needing a K with RISP. 

[joejoesox]

100+ pitch outings

2016 Sale 26 times, 6 complete games

2015 Sale 25 times

2014 Sale 22 times

the point of my first post was clear as the numbers reflect what I said, the Sox increased his work load every year until they traded him. 

my post didn't say "it's normal to expect 100-120 pitches per outing from your ace", especially when those last few years saw us resting Sale a few times due to elbow tightness.  but if you felt that was an expected workload given the circumstances, then idk if I would agree.  Kershaw for comparison only threw 100+ pitches 6 times in 2019, and 7 times in 2018

 

Scherzer is on the Sale-esque workload, his arm is ridiculous though.  He did have a neck injury and I think a back injury tbf

Edited May 10, 2021 by joesaiditstrue

[Kyyle23]

8 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

100+ pitch outings

2016 Sale 26 times, 6 complete games

2015 Sale 25 times

2014 Sale 22 times

the point of my first post was clear as the numbers reflect what I said, the Sox increased his work load every year until they traded him. 

my post didn't say "it's normal to expect 100-120 pitches per outing from your ace", especially when those last few years saw us resting Sale a few times due to elbow tightness.  but if you felt that was an expected workload given the circumstances, then idk if I would agree.  Kershaw for comparison only threw 100+ pitches 6 times in 2019, and 7 times in 2018

 

Scherzer is on the Sale-esque workload, his arm is ridiculous though.  He did have a neck injury and I think a back injury tbf

Maybe be have different definitions of rode hard and put away wet.  To me that's like letting the dude complete multiple games over 130 pitches just because the other team has 2 or fewer runs.  The numbers you are showing me look like a plan by the White Sox to increase his innings with a manageable workload every season 

[BFirebird]

15 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Maybe be have different definitions of rode hard and put away wet.  To me that's like letting the dude complete multiple games over 130 pitches just because the other team has 2 or fewer runs.  The numbers you are showing me look like a plan by the White Sox to increase his innings with a manageable workload every season 

I am going to have agree with this.  Sox were super careful with Sale and he was definitely not throwing max velocity all the time like he did in Boston.  I think the combination of throwing more max velocity and extended playoff run ruined Sale's arm, not what he did in Chicago.  Unless you want to make the argument it was the accumulation of innings in Chicago and then what he did in Boston, but if that were the case that would happen to any pitcher.  He did not have a ridiculous amount of innings here.

[raBBit]

I just love the way Rodon is commanding his FB but still not going full bore early in the starts. After Rodon turns the lineup over twice, the hitters get more comfortable with him like anyone else, and then all of a sudden he's pumping 98. 

Hahn deserves credit for sticking with him. Katz deserves credit for getting him in the right routine this offseason. Rodon deserves credit for finally putting the work in. 

If season ended today, no way Rodon doesn't get a playoff start. Just a brilliant development for the Sox. 

[CentralChamps21]

This is just perception and perhaps the data does not support this, but Rodon seems to be beating hitters in the zone more often than the other starters. It seems as though the other starters rely more on swings outside the zone to get strikeouts and weak contact.

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

This is just perception and perhaps the data does not support this, but Rodon seems to be beating hitters in the zone more often than the other starters. It seems as though the other starters rely more on swings outside the zone to get strikeouts and weak contact.

His up and in fastball to RHH is almost unhittable when he is in that 96-98 mph range we have been seeing from him. 

[mqr]

Whatever is going on with him seems to be real. Just a matter of keeping his shoulder meat attached.

[YourWhatHurts]

[ShoeLessRob]

What a career turn around. Like many I was out on Carlos, mostly cause of his inability to stay healthy. Injuries can still happen, but man he’s in early Cy Young discussion. 

[wegner]

I wonder what he would do if we made the Qualifying Offer? ?

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, wegner said:

I wonder what he would do if we made the Qualifying Offer? ?

You mean Scott Boras Corp?

[Kyyle23]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You mean Scott Boras Corp?

The Sox deal with Boras.  They just don't sign his big ticket guys.  Keuchel is a boras client, it's not crazy to think that the Sox and Rodon can agree to a deal, he clearly likes this team seeing how they came to a deal this offseason after letting him walk.

[Jack Parkman]

To me, the Sox are a budding juggernaut and if Carlos wants to stay, he has to remind Boras that he works for Carlos and not the other way around. I think somewhere between 3/45 and the Keuchel deal could get it done. However, there could be way more money out there as there are always teams that are willing to bet big on stuff. I could see him getting a 4/80 offer from someone. 

What is working in the Sox favor is the pandemic, as it could limit the number of teams that would be willing to pay up. 

Imo the teams we really have to watch out for are Boston and the Yankees. 

Edited May 22, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

To me, the Sox are a budding juggernaut and if Carlos wants to stay, he has to remind Boras that he works for Carlos and not the other way around. I think somewhere between 3/45 and the Keuchel deal could get it done. However, there could be way more money out there as there are always teams that are willing to bet big on stuff. I could see him getting a 4/80 offer from someone. 

What is working in the Sox favor is the pandemic, as it could limit the number of teams that would be willing to pay up. 

Imo the teams we really have to watch out for are Boston and the Yankees. 

Rodon also has a minimal history.  He's been on MLB rosters for 7 seasons, now, but still hasn't been able to put together a consistent and regular high level of performance.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 hours ago, wegner said:

I wonder what he would do if we made the Qualifying Offer? ?

Gotta figure he accepts it, but who knows. Maybe some team would get crazy due to one elite year  - if he can stay healthy - but seems less likely that he gets an aav offer that is equal to the qo

Edited May 22, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Rodon looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball last night. Just dominating from a command + stuff standpoint that very few starting pitchers can do consistently.

[Perfect Vision]

35 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Gotta figure he accepts it, but who knows. Maybe some team would get crazy due to one elite year  - if he can stay healthy - but seems less likely that he gets an aav offer that is equal to the qo

If we're assuming he stays healthy all year and has a Cy Young-caliber season, I think he would decline a QO.  With his injury history, would there be a team out there willing to make him a 5+ year offer based on his 2021?  That seems doubtful to me.  But I think he would get 3-4 year offers with an AAV in the range of the QO.

[poppysox]

25 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

If we're assuming he stays healthy all year and has a Cy Young-caliber season, I think he would decline a QO.  With his injury history, would there be a team out there willing to make him a 5+ year offer based on his 2021?  That seems doubtful to me.  But I think he would get 3-4 year offers with an AAV in the range of the QO.

I hope it's the WS doing the 3-4 year offer.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

If we're assuming he stays healthy all year and has a Cy Young-caliber season, I think he would decline a QO.  With his injury history, would there be a team out there willing to make him a 5+ year offer based on his 2021?  That seems doubtful to me.  But I think he would get 3-4 year offers with an AAV in the range of the QO.

I think it's possible some team could talk themselves into it, but that would be quite the shift in market valuation for a player. Going from a 3 million dollar arm to a $60-70 million dollar arm based on a singular season is a massive leap.