The Jekyll & Hyde Offense

[CentralChamps21]

There was a lot of back in forth in the game thread last night about the proficiency of the offense. One side pointed out that the Sox are currently 5th in MLB in WRC+, 3rd in fWAR, and 9th in OPS. The other side pointed out how often the offense has looked utterly inept.

It turns out that both sides are right. I did some digging and there are 13 games where the offense absolutely blasted a starting pitcher (+ 2 relievers who replaced injured starters early). In 38 innings against those pitchers, the Sox have scored 69 runs, for an average of 16.3 runs/9 innings.

However, in the rest of those 13 games plus the entirety of the other 18 games, the Sox have scored only 86 runs in 223 innings, for an average of 3.5 runs/9 innings. The Sox are only 5-13 in those other 18 games.

This explains why the Sox offense doesn't appear as good as the numbers look, and it explains why the best run differential hasn't produced the best record.

Two of the best hitters in this lineup are out for a long time, and nothing can be done about that, but the run the starting pitching is on is not likely sustainable for a long time, so this offense is going to have to find a way to produce against more than just the worst that opponents have to offer.

[SonofaRoache]

Most teams struggle to score against TOR arms. All you can really do in baseball is crush mediocre pitching and play ace pitchers close and win it when they leave. 

[OmarComing25]

This is just cherry picking. You can do this with pretty much any team and find similar results.

[CentralChamps21]

5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Most teams struggle to score against TOR arms. All you can really do in baseball is crush mediocre pitching and play ace pitchers close and win it when they leave. 

 

4 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

This is just cherry picking. You can do this with pretty much any team and find similar results.

 

To this extreme though? Have the Sox really faced 18 TOR arms in 31 games? Also, the relievers coming into those 13 games facing huge deficits are shutting this offense down and these are essentially mop up guys.

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

 

 

To this extreme though? Have the Sox really faced 18 TOR arms in 31 games? Also, the relievers coming into those 13 games facing huge deficits are shutting this offense down and these are essentially mop up guys.

Yes. This is just the reality of good offenses in baseball. Good offenses crush mediocre pitching and struggle against elite pitching. It is what it is. 

Nobody hits great pitching consistently. You might have a handful of games where your offense crushes an opposing ace, but expecting them to destroy guys like Bieber, Cole, et al. is just unrealistic. 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[OmarComing25]

54 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

 

 

To this extreme though? Have the Sox really faced 18 TOR arms in 31 games? Also, the relievers coming into those 13 games facing huge deficits are shutting this offense down and these are essentially mop up guys.

Yes. The top five teams in runs scored are BOS, LAD, HOU, ARI, and STL. The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in 13 games. For those other teams:

BOS: 14 games

LAD: 15 games

HOU: 14 games

ARI: 12 games

STL: 15 games

 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, OmarComing25 said:

This is just cherry picking. You can do this with pretty much any team and find similar results.

Perhaps, but their splits against RHP and LHP are a real phenomenon.

Stats through 5/7/21:

White Sox Hitters Against LHP: 

301/.370/.457 OPS .826 sOPS + 133.

White Six Hitters Against RHP:

.242/.330/.369 OPS .699 sOPS + 102

2020-2021 Splits against starters:

LH SP: 19-1 

RH SP: 33-37

[Dominikk85]

Every team is streaky, that isn't a thing. There still is a strong platoon split but the sox did get better against rhp and posted a 104 wRC+ as a team against them so far which is not great but above average  (6th in AL). They also absolutely murder LHP (mlb leading 141 wrc+). 

 

This is really the recipe for them, try to be slightly above average against righties and murder lefties and the offense will be fine. Just make sure you don't have long droughts against RHP, occasionally getting blanked by a good righty is fine but avoid long bad stretches against rhp.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Dominikk85