Straight-Line WAR Projections

[Chicago White Sox]

Having played ~20% of our total games this year, I figured it would be a cool exercise to see what full season pace that would put them at for fWAR and debate who we think will over or under deliver on those numbers.  For each player, the number to the left of the pipe will represent their current straight-line fWAR projection and the number to the right will represent their career high.  For 2020 I will simply use a 2.7 multiplier to project what a full year figure would have been.  I did make a couple exceptions for rookies who came up mid year which are marked by an asterisk.

Hitters:

• 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0)
• 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*)
• SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7)
• 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6)
• LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA)
• CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2)
• RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9)
• DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA)
• CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8)
• BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3)

Pitchers:

• SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4)
• SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7)
• SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7)
• SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*)
• SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7)
• SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA)
• CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8)
• SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3)
• SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4)
• SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*)

[Chicago White Sox]

Here are my thoughts:

Hitters:

• 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0) - OVER
• 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*) - EVEN
• SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7) - OVER
• 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6) - OVER
• LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA) - OVER
• CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2) - OVER
• RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9) - UNDER
• DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA) - UNDER
• CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8) - OVER
• BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3) - EVEN

Honestly, I think the bulk of these guys will outperform their straight-line estimates, even if just slightly.  Several of them got off to slow starts or dealt with injuries.  Vaughn should continue to grow.  Leury can’t be as bad as he’s been.  To me, the only clear regression candidate is Yermin although I’m skeptical Adam will be able to stay healthy over the course of the season.  I’m probably on the optimistic side with Collins, but I’ve always been a fan and he should get enough playing time to hit two wins if used primarily against RHP.
 

Pitchers:

• SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4) - OVER
• SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7) - OVER
• SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7) - EVEN
• SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*) - EVEN
• SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7) - UNDER
• SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA) - OVER
• CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8) - OVER
• SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3) - OVER
• SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4) - OVER
• SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*) - OVER

Without question Giolito will blow past that 2 win projection out of the water.  Keuchel should be good for at least 2 wins if he stays healthy.  I seriously doubt Rodon will remain the best pitcher on the planet for the remainder of the season, so there should be some regression there.  I do think Lynn & Cease will hit their win projections.  As for the bullpen, I think they all exceed their straight-line numbers.  Hendriks in particular will be better and is clearly the victim of flukey HR luck, but I think all of the big four relievers will outperform their projections.

What’s crazy is as good as this team has been, I think overall it should probably be better going forward health permitting.

[35thstreetswarm]

So we’re in first place with nobody in our lineup, save Mercedes, having a “career year.” To say nothing of the devastating injuries. Bodes well.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

So we’re in first place with nobody in our lineup, save Mercedes, having a “career year.” To say nothing of the devastating injuries. Bodes well.

Rodon, obviously, and Cease.   

[35thstreetswarm]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Rodon, obviously, and Cease.   

Not in the lineup. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

So we’re in first place with nobody in our lineup, save Mercedes, having a “career year.” To say nothing of the devastating injuries. Bodes well.

It’s pretty wild when you look it, but we may have more underachievers than we do overachievers.  There is just a ton of talent on this roster.

[Jerksticks]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s pretty wild when you look it, but we may have more underachievers than we do overachievers.  There is just a ton of talent on this roster.

Yep.  We ain’t seen nothin yet.  

[SoxBlanco]

I admittedly don’t know much about WAR when it comes to pitchers, but if Rodon keeps this pace for the entire season, how is that only 6.5 WAR?  Lynn has had a better full year than what Rodon’s year would look like if he kept this pace? How is that possible?

EDIT: Perhaps it’s because he’s only started 5 games, but a record of 25-0 with a 0.58 ERA seems like it should be worth more than 6.5 WAR. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by SoxBlanco

[Dam8610]

That Rodon contract could be the bargain of a lifetime. Even if he finishes with 3 WAR, That's $27 million of value for $3 million, or $24 million of surplus value. If he actually hits 6 WAR, his surplus value will be over $50 million.