How are the White Sox leading the AL in runs per game?

[VAfan]

In 2020, the White Sox finished 2nd to the Yankees in runs per game, at 5.10.  How did they do it?  Here were some rankings of various offensive stats.

HR - 1st
SLG - 1st
OPS+ - 2nd
Walks - 11th
Ks (most) - 2nd
OBP - 5th

So, they hit a lot of HRs, but also struck out a lot and didn't walk very often.

In 2021, the White Sox are leading the AL in runs per game at 5.24. But here are those same rankings.

HR - 15th - or last
SLG - 7th
OPS+ - 2nd - tied with Houston and Boston, just behind MN
Walks - 4th
Ks (most) - 12th
OBP - 1st

So, the Sox went from first to LAST in HRs, but cut their strikeouts and increased their walks, so they lead by a good margin in OBP - .342 to .325 - over Boston. Even without the HRs, their slugging is still decent, and combined with the OBP, it keeps their OPS+ up.

I just think it's a fascinating offensive transition to be playing a very different kind of game with many fewer HRs but a higher number of runs per game. 

Does this have something to do with Tony LaRussa managing the Sox?  Here's an interesting article looking back at TLR's history in gauging what he might do this year with the Sox. You have to go to the bottom where he talks about fewer strikeouts. 

Now I don't really want to turn this into another Tony LaRussa thread, but it seems like the Sox' approach is night and day different than last year.  So what do we attribute that to? Any how can it be successful with so few HRs so far? 

**********

Without too deep of an analysis, it seems pretty clear that if you have a high OBP, fueled in part by a much higher walk rate, and cut your strikeouts, that means you are putting more bats on balls with men on base, and that's likely to lead to more runs.  It takes more work than just hitting the ball over the fence.  But so far, it seems to be paying off for the Sox. 

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by VAfan

[caulfield12]

Answer:  TLR, TLR, TLR!!! and more aggressive base running (sends by 3B coach, except for Vaughn vs. Arraez), Billy Hamilton, clutch hitting and more emphasis on walks and contact.

[Dominikk85]

The sox also have lost their best power hitter (Eloy) and Abreu is not really in great Form. 

Vaughn might not have quite the plus power some thought but he certainly isn't a 100 ISO guy like he was so far. 

So if you get a 20 Homer pace of Vaughn, a 30 Homer pace by Abreu and a 35 homer pace by Eloy when he is back in the second half that team will look better in the power department even if it is a little less than last year. 

[wegner]

Can you imagine if they start sprinkling in some more of the long ball as it gets warmer, like Grandal's 3 run blast last night.  Are we in for multiple 10+ runs scored games this summer?  Sounds like Fun.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

The sox also have lost their best power hitter (Eloy) and Abreu is not really in great Form. 

Vaughn might not have quite the plus power some thought but he certainly isn't a 100 ISO guy like he was so far. 

So if you get a 20 Homer pace of Vaughn, a 30 Homer pace by Abreu and a 35 homer pace by Eloy when he is back in the second half that team will look better in the power department even if it is a little less than last year. 

Robert at 100% should outhomer Jimenez, who’s more of an oppo and spray line drive hitter.

At any rate, you pencil both guys in for 30-40 per season.

 

https://whitesox.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9XHbY4krGPN3SeO

White Sox/MLB survey on fan reactions to team so far...

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by caulfield12

[Dominikk85]

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Robert at 100% should outhomer Jimenez, who’s more of an oppo and spray line drive hitter.

At any rate, you pencil both guys in for 30-40 per season.

 

https://whitesox.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9XHbY4krGPN3SeO

White Sox/MLB survey on fan reactions to team so far...

 

People underate eloy's elite power due to his missed games. Eloy has hit 45 homers in 730 career PAs which is a 41 Homer pace over 162.

 

It is true that he could probably even more if he pulled the ball more but even like he is he is an annual 40 bomb guy when healthy. 

Robert has great power too but I see him more as a 30 Homer guy. 

If Eloy pulled the ball a little more he could hit 50, nobody else in the sox org has that much power potential. 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

People underate eloy's elite power due to his missed games. Eloy has hit 45 homers in 730 career PAs which is a 41 Homer pace over 162.

 

It is true that he could probably even more if he pulled the ball more but even like he is he is an annual 40 bomb guy when healthy. 

Robert has great power too but I see him more as a 30 Homer guy. 

If Eloy pulled the ball a little more he could hit 50, nobody else in the sox org has that much power potential. 

I don’t know...that homer in Game 3 to the CF tarp at the Coliseum, what was it, 487 feet?

Mercedes hits some massive bombs, too.

Edited May 12, 2021 by caulfield12

[SpringfieldFan]

I'm just amazed that they now also have a large lead in run differential, and yet I still have this feeling their offense hasn't really gotten on track yet.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I don’t know...that homer in Game 3 to the CF tarp at the Coliseum, what was it, 487 feet?

Mercedes hits some massive bombs, too.

We still don't know what Robert is capable of. This year his approach has been different. Maybe Menechino told him the same thing he told Vaughn, concentrate on being a .300 hitter. Has that hurt the HR power ? Maybe ? Of course HR's are down all around baseball with the different ball.

MLB has to find out what they want to do and quit fucking around with the ball and pitching rubber. It's hard enough to assess your talent without screwing with all that. With all that in mind perhaps Menechino had the foresight to just tell guys like Vaughn, Mercedes and Robert to get the approach better and use your hands more if your bat is quick enough to make those kinds of adjustments. It can be sustained even if you don't have a penchant for taking walks like it has with Timmy or Madrigal if you are willing to go the other way and sacrifice power.

[joejoesox]

I'd imagine BABIP is way up for mercedes 

[YoYoIsMyHero]

2 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

I'd imagine BABIP is way up for mercedes 

His BABIP is .422 which.... is high.

[joejoesox]

5 minutes ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

His BABIP is .422 which.... is high.

yeah, unsustainable to say the least.  the league hasn't really adjusted to him yet because he's such a great hitter, same with Madrigal

also I wanna say Danny Mendick is a really good baseball player

 

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, VAfan said:

In 2020, the White Sox finished 2nd to the Yankees in runs per game, at 5.10.  How did they do it?  Here were some rankings of various offensive stats.

HR - 1st
SLG - 1st
OPS+ - 2nd
Walks - 11th
Ks (most) - 2nd
OBP - 5th

So, they hit a lot of HRs, but also struck out a lot and didn't walk very often.

In 2021, the White Sox are leading the AL in runs per game at 5.24. But here are those same rankings.

HR - 15th - or last
SLG - 7th
OPS+ - 2nd - tied with Houston and Boston, just behind MN
Walks - 4th
Ks (most) - 12th
OBP - 1st

So, the Sox went from first to LAST in HRs, but cut their strikeouts and increased their walks, so they lead by a good margin in OBP - .342 to .325 - over Boston. Even without the HRs, their slugging is still decent, and combined with the OBP, it keeps their OPS+ up.

I just think it's a fascinating offensive transition to be playing a very different kind of game with many fewer HRs but a higher number of runs per game. 

Does this have something to do with Tony LaRussa managing the Sox?  Here's an interesting article looking back at TLR's history in gauging what he might do this year with the Sox. You have to go to the bottom where he talks about fewer strikeouts. 

Now I don't really want to turn this into another Tony LaRussa thread, but it seems like the Sox' approach is night and day different than last year.  So what do we attribute that to? Any how can it be successful with so few HRs so far? 

**********

Without too deep of an analysis, it seems pretty clear that if you have a high OBP, fueled in part by a much higher walk rate, and cut your strikeouts, that means you are putting more bats on balls with men on base, and that's likely to lead to more runs.  It takes more work than just hitting the ball over the fence.  But so far, it seems to be paying off for the Sox. 

 

Yet...

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yet...

Even better...

Also while claiming everyone is unqualified to judge Tony, then of course judges his job performance in multiple other posts.

[iWiN4PreP]

I don't like most of VAfan's overly optimistic, but highly detailed posts, but this is really an awesome one.

Thank you for brining this to our attention (sans any mention of that horrid manager TLR).

 

I am a firm believer in the OBP approach and avoiding the HR or nothing game. Seeing these stats made me really happy and more confident in our offensive abilities as a team. 

[VAfan]

The point of this post was to have the sabre guys out there try to break this down in much more detail than I did. 

I just think it is fascinating that you can go from first to last in HRs and increase your runs per game by walking more and striking out less.

The Yankees lead in walks by a lot, but they are scoring more than a run less per game than the Sox.

Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned TLR, because that is an interesting part of it, but it's not why I wrote the post. I just want to understand why this new approach is working so well.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, VAfan said:

The point of this post was to have the sabre guys out there try to break this down in much more detail than I did. 

I just think it is fascinating that you can go from first to last in HRs and increase your runs per game by walking more and striking out less.

The Yankees lead in walks by a lot, but they are scoring more than a run less per game than the Sox.

Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned TLR, because that is an interesting part of it, but it's not why I wrote the post. I just want to understand why this new approach is working so well.

Maybe the Sox are starting to look at the games inefficiency where the ball is less lively and no one else is playing this way yet. Of course much if it was forced by losing Eloy, then Robert. That's a lot of power gone from the lineup and replaced with minimal power.

[MiddleCoastBias]

5 hours ago, wegner said:

Can you imagine if they start sprinkling in some more of the long ball as it gets warmer, like Grandal's 3 run blast last night.  Are we in for multiple 10+ runs scored games this summer?  Sounds like Fun.

This post aged quite nicely in just 5 short hours, bravo!

[wegner]

11 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

This post aged quite nicely in just 5 short hours, bravo!

Thanks...blind squirrel....nut ?

[RagahRagah]

Yeah, these stats, especially without Eloy and Robert and  some time without Tim and a sub-par Grandal and Abreu seem pretty baffling. But then... there is Yermin.

And the idea that suddenly after more than a decade of terrible plate approach that TLR (who has frankly been pretty clueless and behind the curve) is the one who has suddenly single-handedly changed the approach and fixed this club's offensive woes?

Sorry, really hard to buy that.

Edited May 13, 2021 by RagahRagah

[caulfield12]

Presence of the Yerminator (best, most consistent battling at-bats on the team still), Grandal walks, Vaughn walks and doubles...Madrigal contact.

Those are the four obvious differences.  Abreu is the same run producer he has always been, albeit with a lower BA.

[CentralChamps21]

The Sox have historically been lacking high OBP guys. When you don't have guys walking, it takes 4+ hits in an inning to push multiple runs across without a homer. That's really hard to do.

This year's team has Grandal walking at an obscene rate, plus Vaughn has proven to be adept at taking walks. Add in Madrigal and Mercedes, who both have extreme 2-strike contact skills, and you have a team capable of multiple multi-run innings in games without needing homers. These guys allow the Sox to keep scoring runs in bunches while two of the biggest power bats are out.

 

[harkness99]

16 hours ago, VAfan said:

In 2020, the White Sox finished 2nd to the Yankees in runs per game, at 5.10.  How did they do it?  Here were some rankings of various offensive stats.

HR - 1st
SLG - 1st
OPS+ - 2nd
Walks - 11th
Ks (most) - 2nd
OBP - 5th

So, they hit a lot of HRs, but also struck out a lot and didn't walk very often.

In 2021, the White Sox are leading the AL in runs per game at 5.24. But here are those same rankings.

HR - 15th - or last
SLG - 7th
OPS+ - 2nd - tied with Houston and Boston, just behind MN
Walks - 4th
Ks (most) - 12th
OBP - 1st

So, the Sox went from first to LAST in HRs, but cut their strikeouts and increased their walks, so they lead by a good margin in OBP - .342 to .325 - over Boston. Even without the HRs, their slugging is still decent, and combined with the OBP, it keeps their OPS+ up.

I just think it's a fascinating offensive transition to be playing a very different kind of game with many fewer HRs but a higher number of runs per game. 

Does this have something to do with Tony LaRussa managing the Sox?  Here's an interesting article looking back at TLR's history in gauging what he might do this year with the Sox. You have to go to the bottom where he talks about fewer strikeouts. 

Now I don't really want to turn this into another Tony LaRussa thread, but it seems like the Sox' approach is night and day different than last year.  So what do we attribute that to? Any how can it be successful with so few HRs so far? 

**********

Without too deep of an analysis, it seems pretty clear that if you have a high OBP, fueled in part by a much higher walk rate, and cut your strikeouts, that means you are putting more bats on balls with men on base, and that's likely to lead to more runs.  It takes more work than just hitting the ball over the fence.  But so far, it seems to be paying off for the Sox. 

 

The last stat you mentioned is the reason....  OBP... plus there are other stats to consider.

[Quin]

11 hours ago, VAfan said:

The point of this post was to have the sabre guys out there try to break this down in much more detail than I did. 

I just think it is fascinating that you can go from first to last in HRs and increase your runs per game by walking more and striking out less.

The Yankees lead in walks by a lot, but they are scoring more than a run less per game than the Sox.

Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned TLR, because that is an interesting part of it, but it's not why I wrote the post. I just want to understand why this new approach is working so well.

As someone who has surface level understanding, sure.

Sox lead the majors in wOBA at .332. Here's what wOBA is.

Quote

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. 

• The wOBA formula for the 2013 season was:
  • wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B + 2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to the present here.

 

MLB's example:

Quote

For instance: In 2014, a home run was worth 2.101 times on base, while a walk was worth 0.69 times on base. So a player who went 1-for-4 with a home run and a walk would have a wOBA of .558 -- (2.101 + 0.69 / 5 PAs).

This means that the Sox are getting on-base the most effectively. Even if they aren't home runs, it's still very, very effective because it's so often. How do I know that? Because I can still pull in the traditional stats of average, where they rank first (.262) and on-base percentage, where they rank second (.345).

They're second in wRC+ (at 117), which MLB defines as this:

Quote

wRC+ takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors -- like ballpark or era. It's adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

For example, a player who plays his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field will have a lower wRC+ than a player who posts identical stats at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.

(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100.

This means the Sox are 17% above league average at creating runs.

Also, unlike Houston and the Dodgers, the other top two offensive teams, the Sox are Top 6 in BsR, which FanGraphs defines as this:

Quote

Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average.

• The basic equation for BsR is quite simple:

BsR = wSB + UBR + wGDP

wSB is Weighted Stolen Base Runs which estimates the number of runs above or below average a player contributes to his team by stealing bases and being thrown out trying to steal. You can read more about wSB specifically at the link provided, but the calculation is as follows:

wSB = SB * runSB + CS * runCS – lgwSB * (1B + BB + HBP – IBB)

League stolen base runs (lgwSB) is:

lgwSB = (SB * runSB + CS * runCS) / (1B + BB + HBP – IBB)

So the Sox are elite at creating runs (when normalized for stadiums, leagues, etc.), elite at getting on base and despite not hitting homers, towards the top of the league in "quality" of getting on base, and great on the base paths.

Does that satisfy you?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Thank you Quin, great post and very thorough. That kind of post probably takes something like an hour to do when combining the research and the writing. That's dedication.