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spiderman

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Help me with this....

Robert and Jimenez are worth "x" in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They are clearly better than the alternative. 

Saying that, how much does the overall team reflect in WAR? Losing Robert on the Tigers or Pirates is probably more impactful than losing him on the White Sox.

When both of these players were lost, obviously, there is fear of a drop-off. However, in a lineup that features Anderson, Abreau, Grandal (even with his batting average), Moncada,  Vaughn and Mercedes (so far for him and Vaughn), this is still not an awful lineup despite more plate appearances from Garcia.

Anyways, question is, does WAR take into account the team around them, lineup and pitching?

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4 minutes ago, spiderman said:

Help me with this....

Robert and Jimenez are worth "x" in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They are clearly better than the alternative. 

Saying that, how much does the overall team reflect in WAR? Losing Robert on the Tigers or Pirates is probably more impactful than losing him on the White Sox.

When both of these players were lost, obviously, there is fear of a drop-off. However, in a lineup that features Anderson, Abreau, Grandal (even with his batting average), Moncada,  Vaughn and Mercedes (so far for him and Vaughn), this is still not an awful lineup despite more plate appearances from Garcia.

Anyways, question is, does WAR take into account the team around them, lineup and pitching?

I believe it’s just relative to position, league, and perhaps home stadium.

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2 minutes ago, spiderman said:

Help me with this....

Robert and Jimenez are worth "x" in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They are clearly better than the alternative. 

Saying that, how much does the overall team reflect in WAR? Losing Robert on the Tigers or Pirates is probably more impactful than losing him on the White Sox.

When both of these players were lost, obviously, there is fear of a drop-off. However, in a lineup that features Anderson, Abreau, Grandal (even with his batting average), Moncada,  Vaughn and Mercedes (so far for him and Vaughn), this is still not an awful lineup despite more plate appearances from Garcia.

Anyways, question is, does WAR take into account the team around them, lineup and pitching?

WAR does not take into account the team around a player. It attempts to evaluate players individually. 

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14 minutes ago, ron883 said:

WAR does not take into account the team around a player. It attempts to evaluate players individually. 

Thank you!

Is that a flaw? If Robert and Jimenez are out and the White Sox still win 90+ games, what does that say for the value of those two players? Clearly, both are highly talented and help the team win, but if the lineup is still 7 deep and the starting rotation / bullpen are amongst the best in the majors, isn't there WAR less compared to if they played for the Tigers or Pirates?

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1 hour ago, spiderman said:

Thank you!

Is that a flaw? If Robert and Jimenez are out and the White Sox still win 90+ games, what does that say for the value of those two players? Clearly, both are highly talented and help the team win, but if the lineup is still 7 deep and the starting rotation / bullpen are amongst the best in the majors, isn't there WAR less compared to if they played for the Tigers or Pirates?

Why would you want the quality of a team to influence a statistic meant to evaluate a single player, though? That's why win-loss record for pitchers is irrelevant now a days. It's too heavily dependent on how the offense and bullpen did. It's not good for evaluating a player. 

If the White Sox win 90+ without Eloy and Robert, it means the team was really fricken good. It means they'd be even more dominant with those guys. 

WAR is wins above replacement. It calculates how much better a given player is than a replacement level player in that season. Team success has little to no influence on it. 

Edited by ron883
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5 hours ago, spiderman said:

Help me with this....

Robert and Jimenez are worth "x" in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They are clearly better than the alternative. 

Saying that, how much does the overall team reflect in WAR? Losing Robert on the Tigers or Pirates is probably more impactful than losing him on the White Sox.

When both of these players were lost, obviously, there is fear of a drop-off. However, in a lineup that features Anderson, Abreau, Grandal (even with his batting average), Moncada,  Vaughn and Mercedes (so far for him and Vaughn), this is still not an awful lineup despite more plate appearances from Garcia.

Anyways, question is, does WAR take into account the team around them, lineup and pitching?

What WAR is attempting to measure is how many more games your team should expect to win compared to using a replacement (0.0 WAR) player in his place. So in theory, replacing a 6 WAR player with a 1 WAR player should cost you 5 wins, prorated for the portion of the season that the player is out.

The Sox have gotten positive WAR contributions from all of the replacements except Leury, who is at zero (per Fangraphs), so that has helped mitigate the losses some, plus the starting pitching has been much better than expected, especially from Rodon, Cease and Kopech, so that has also helped mitigate the losses.

 

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6 hours ago, spiderman said:

Thank you!

Is that a flaw? If Robert and Jimenez are out and the White Sox still win 90+ games, what does that say for the value of those two players? Clearly, both are highly talented and help the team win, but if the lineup is still 7 deep and the starting rotation / bullpen are amongst the best in the majors, isn't there WAR less compared to if they played for the Tigers or Pirates?

Out of curiosity, have you ever heard of a player called Mike Trout?

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6 hours ago, spiderman said:

Thank you!

Is that a flaw? If Robert and Jimenez are out and the White Sox still win 90+ games, what does that say for the value of those two players? Clearly, both are highly talented and help the team win, but if the lineup is still 7 deep and the starting rotation / bullpen are amongst the best in the majors, isn't there WAR less compared to if they played for the Tigers or Pirates?

WAR is measuring the value compared to a generic replacement player, not the actual guy who replaced them when they get hurt. WAR is trying to compare a player's value relative to the entire league, not their value to their own team. If one team has a 2.0 WAR guy to replace you when you get hurt but another team has a 0.0 WAR guy to replace you, that shouldn't count against your value as a player.

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On 5/21/2021 at 6:50 AM, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

What WAR is attempting to measure is how many more games your team should expect to win compared to using a replacement (0.0 WAR) player in his place. So in theory, replacing a 6 WAR player with a 1 WAR player should cost you 5 wins, prorated for the portion of the season that the player is out.

The Sox have gotten positive WAR contributions from all of the replacements except Leury, who is at zero (per Fangraphs), so that has helped mitigate the losses some, plus the starting pitching has been much better than expected, especially from Rodon, Cease and Kopech, so that has also helped mitigate the losses.

 

Thank you. I guess that was what I was getting at with WAR. If you have a talented team, one player (or even two) won't derail you. Yes, the team is not as good as they could be with Jimenez and Robert, but are they 10-12 games worse (as the WAR would probably indicate vs. their replacements)? If the starting pitching holds up, they will be a 90-95 win still.

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43 minutes ago, spiderman said:

Thank you. I guess that was what I was getting at with WAR. If you have a talented team, one player (or even two) won't derail you. Yes, the team is not as good as they could be with Jimenez and Robert, but are they 10-12 games worse (as the WAR would probably indicate vs. their replacements)? If the starting pitching holds up, they will be a 90-95 win still.

Their replacements aren't 0 WAR players

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6 hours ago, ron883 said:

Their replacements aren't 0 WAR players

Luis Robert was named the 7th most irreplaceable player in MLB based on his proJected fWAR, and the Grand Canyon sized gap between Luis and his pathetic replacements.

Not sure how you can argue Leury Garcia or Billy Hamilton are not 0 WAR players.

The gap is not as large with Eloy, since he is the worst defensive LF in MLB, so outside of perhaps Jake Lamb, you get a LF defensive upgrade. Also, the drop off is not as wide in offense with Vaughn as the drop off in CF.

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On 5/22/2021 at 9:38 PM, spiderman said:

Thank you. I guess that was what I was getting at with WAR. If you have a talented team, one player (or even two) won't derail you. Yes, the team is not as good as they could be with Jimenez and Robert, but are they 10-12 games worse (as the WAR would probably indicate vs. their replacements)? If the starting pitching holds up, they will be a 90-95 win still.

Eloy's injury essentially moved Vaughn from DH to LF and Mercedes to DH, so you've replaced Eloy's defense with Vaughn and his offense with Mercedes so that injury hasn't hurt as much. Robert's injury has been replaced almost entirely by Leury and Hamilton, so that one is hurting more. It will get mitigated some soon when Engel is back

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