The Bullpen Problem

[Chicago White Sox]

As anyone who follows this team closely can tell you, the bullpen has been a big problem this year allowing nine blown saves so far (tied for 4th in MLB).  Here the stats for the key members of the bullpen:

• Hendriks: 2.50 ERA | 2.51 xFIP | 93 %tile xwOBA
• Bummer: 2.76 ERA | 2.87 xFIP | 88 %tile xwOBA
• Heuer: 5.68 ERA | 3.00 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA
• Crochet: 0.77 ERA | 4.33 xFIP | 77 %tile xwOBA
• Marshall: 6.89 ERA | 5.67 xFIP | 46 %tile xwOBA
• Foster: 6.39 ERA | 3.46 xFIP | 64 %tile xwOBA
• Ruiz: 2.71 ERA | 3.91 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA
• Kopech: 1.91 ERA | 2.85 xFIP | 96 %tile xwOBA

I think the takeaways are pretty clear here.  While Hendriks & Bummer have blown a combined six saves and haven’t quite lived up to expectations, there is little reason to doubt they won’t be highly valuable relievers going forward.  Beyond that, Kopech has been an absolute beast in a multi-inning reliever role but is a risk to switch to the rotation at some point.  Finally, Crochet has put up a great ERA by limiting the quality of contact against him (.307 xwBACON), but his BB rate remains concerning and he isn’t going to maintain a 0.0 HR/9 rate all season.  I still believe Katz is having Crochet hold back his stuff a bit, so if the velocity returns come October he can still be a post-season weapon.

The problem is basically all the other RH relievers and I’ll even include Ruiz in that bucket.  His xFIP isn’t horrible, but he’s gotten very lucky based on the quality of contact against him, including a 51% hard hit in rate (4 %tile).  No doubt he’s been the least of our problems out of this next group, but I doubt buy him being anything other than last man in the pen as he simply doesn’t strikeout enough batters.  Statcast basically has Ruiz no different than Marshall & Heuer, just with vastly different results. 

Heuer has been a huge disappointment as I was expecting big things from him.  He has been roughed up pretty badly on his sinker this year (.429 wOBA), especially against LH hitters (all three HRs allowed have come against lefties).  That being said, there is reason for optimism with him IMO.  His BB rate has greatly improved from 2020 all while slightly improving his overall K rate.  Zone charts suggest he’s left too many sinkers center cut and that’s something that should be correctable with time.  He’s running a ridiculous .456 BABIP that will normalize over time.  His changeup has also developed into a nice weapon against lefties, with a 55% whiff rate on much higher usage than last year.  I think his splits against lefties will normalize by the end of the season and he can be a valuable 7th inning guy.

And now here is where the real problems come into play.  Foster & Marshall were both keys to the bullpen last year and both guys have been utter disasters so far with 6.00+ ERAs.  Statcast likes Foster better and I can see why.  Excellent K & BB rates to go with very solid quality of contact against him.  He’s been the victim of a flukey LOB rate (56%) and being left to die by his manager in Seattle.  Since that infamous blowup, he’s pitched 10.1 innings with 13 K’s, 1 BB, 0.77 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and a 3.41 xFIP (nearly identical to his full season figure).  He’s not the 2.20 ERA guy we saw last year and he probably requires a quick hook when things aren’t going well, but I still think he can be a good 6th inning guy.

That leaves Marshall and good god has this dude failed to carry the load.  Last year he put up a 2.58 xFIP and a 98 %tile xwOBA.  He was legit elite and he was expected to compete with Heuer as the primary RH setup man this year.  So what’s changed since 2020?  Well first & foremost his K & whiff rates are down significantly, dropping from the high 80 %tiles to the low single digits.  His whiff rate on his curveball in particular has dropped from 58.5% last year to 4.5% this year.  That is absolutely bonkers and it’s even more surprising given his spin rates and movement are very similar to last year.  I don’t know if the issue is location (more curves have been in the zone), him tipping his pitches, or scouting reports simply being out on him now, but the curve is no longer the weapon it once was.  Furthermore, without the curveball being a threat, guys are sitting on his changeup and that pitch has taken a beating as a result.  Honestly, I don’t know what to make of the guy, but I can confidently say this version of Marshall isn’t going to work and we can’t rely on him being an 8th inning option going forward.

So what does this all mean?  Our #1 trade need on the pitching side has to be a high-end RH setup man.  I think we’re fine from the left side, with Bummer owning the 8th, Crochet the 7th, and eventually Fry in the 6th.  I think Heuer can handle the 7th on a championship team and I’m willing to stick with Foster in the 6th.  There is a gaping hole in that 8th inning and that will need to be addressed, especially with the young arms in Charlotte off to rough starts.  I’d give Marshall another month in low leverage situations to prove he can regain the form of his curveball, but if not, he’s probably a DFA candidate given his lack of options.  Either way, we need a better setup man in place to move all the righties down a spot and so that Tony doesn’t feel compelled to use 6.00+ ERA guys in high leverage situations.

[reiks12]

Can we hire Don Cooper to be our bullpen coach? Say what you want about his atrocious starting pitching coaching but without looking at the numbers it seems we always exceeded expectations with our bullpen.

[Bob Sacamano]

Any big trade they make is going to be for the pen, not the outfield.

[Chicago White Sox]

One way to address the bullpen while adding a LH outfielder would be to do the following:

CWS Receive:

• Joey Gallo, OF*
• Ian Kennedy, RP

TEX Receive:

• Jared Kelley, SP
• Jonathan Stiever, SP
• James Beard, OF

Not sure if that’s enough depending on Gallo’s market, but we’d be giving up two of our top four prospects plus an interesting OF prospect.  I’m sure some would hate it, but it would address our two biggest needs in one fair swoop.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[kitekrazy]

 The stat you wont see is Clutch.   They all seem to fall short.  When the Sox put up NFL points the pen can pad their stats.  Removing a starter in a blowout allows some guys in the pen not having to deal with pressure. 

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Any big trade they make is going to be for the pen, not the outfield.

I wouldn’t rule out an OF addition, but I think a big reliever trade is all but a certainty.  The challenge we face is the farm is total garbage, so may be hard to pull off too many impact moves.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

 The stat you wont see is Clutch.   They all seem to fall short.  When the Sox put up NFL points the pen can pad their stats.  Removing a starter in a blowout allows some guys in the pen not having to deal with pressure. 

I agree with you to some extent.  Hendriks & Bummer have both been their worse in high leverage situations, but we’re also talking about very small sample sizes.

[fathom]

Richard Rodriguez and Daniel Hudson would be great fits. Hell, give me Adam Frazier at 2b over Madrigal.

[Bob Sacamano]

Someone tossed out a name this week that would make sense (a lefty reliever) but I can't remember who.

[kitekrazy]

28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree with you to some extent.  Hendriks & Bummer have both been their worse in high leverage situations, but we’re also talking about very small sample sizes.

Small enough to be 4th in blown saves.

[HOFHurt35]

As pointed out by the OP, Marshall was pretty damn good last season.  I don't blame LaRussa and Katz for his high usage so far (like last night when everyone was shitting on that decision).  Sadly, I think the Sox are banking on Marshall turning it around because they have less trust in Heuer and Foster.   All 3 suck right now. 

[joejoesox]

@Chicago White Sox that was an amazing post, thanks brother! 

[joejoesox]

3 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

As pointed out by the OP, Marshall was pretty damn good last season.  I don't blame LaRussa and Katz for his high usage so far (like last night when everyone was shitting on that decision).  Sadly, I think the Sox are banking on Marshall turning it around because they have less trust in Heuer and Foster.   All 3 suck right now. 

we will see Marshall in a lot of high leverage situations when the team is in 1st place because they're gonna try and get his mind right before they DFA him, they aren't gonna wait until August when the games matter more

imho here's what happens with Marshall:  If he doesn't figure it out and is just bad all year, Ruiz gets DFAd and Marshall moves into long man/mop up and they keep him around til next year

Edited May 22, 2021 by joesaiditstrue

[JoeyCoralFanClub]

10 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

we will see Marshall in a lot of high leverage situations when the team is in 1st place because they're gonna try and get his mind right before they DFA him, they aren't gonna wait until August when the games matter more

imho here's what happens with Marshall:  If he doesn't figure it out and is just bad all year, Ruiz gets DFAd and Marshall moves into long man/mop up and they keep him around til next year

This makes no sense. Evan Marshall's days are numbered. Can't keep throwing a gas can out there in a year with world series expectations. 

[joejoesox]

3 minutes ago, JoeyCoralFanClub said:

This makes no sense. Evan Marshall's days are numbered. Can't keep throwing a gas can out there in a year with world series expectations. 

I think the Sox likely feel that Marshall is better than how he's pitched this year

[JoeyCoralFanClub]

11 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

I think the Sox likely feel that Marshall is better than how he's pitched this year

Marshall doesn't have dominant stuff that he is trying to regain. The guy was a journeyman who had a couple decent seasons. Baseball history is littered with guys like him. The Sox should be looking for his replacement pronto.

[whitesoxbrad]

2 hours ago, JoeyCoralFanClub said:

Marshall doesn't have dominant stuff that he is trying to regain. The guy was a journeyman who had a couple decent seasons. Baseball history is littered with guys like him. The Sox should be looking for his replacement pronto.

The White Sox never do anything pronto, this team as constructed is going nowhere, they have at least 4 easy outs in there lineup every day.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, JoeyCoralFanClub said:

Marshall doesn't have dominant stuff that he is trying to regain. The guy was a journeyman who had a couple decent seasons. Baseball history is littered with guys like him. The Sox should be looking for his replacement pronto.

He’s basically Zach Putnam.  Hardly irreplaceable.

[Jerksticks]

3 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

I think the Sox likely feel that Marshall is better than how he's pitched this year

Yes totally.  I feel like this should be pretty obvious- he was awesome last year.  We’re gonna run away with the division quite handedly so thankfully the FO isn’t composed of cowards that want to knee-jerk him off the team.  They recognize that the way to win the WS is to have all our weapons optimized for October, Marshall included.   I love that they haven’t lost faith and are sticking up for him.  Probably gonna need to see some improvement by the trade deadline though.  
 

And oooo we lost some games to the Yankees.  Ooooooowwwweeee.  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Yes totally.  I feel like this should be pretty obvious- he was awesome last year.  We’re gonna run away with the division quite handedly so thankfully the FO isn’t composed of cowards that want to knee-jerk him off the team.  They recognize that the way to win the WS is to have all our weapons optimized for October, Marshall included.   I love that they haven’t lost faith and are sticking up for him.  Probably gonna need to see some improvement by the trade deadline though.  
 

And oooo we lost some games to the Yankees.  Ooooooowwwweeee.  

Handily...and, as my mom always asserts, don’t count your chickens before/until they’ve hatched.

[YourWhatHurts]

9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One way to address the bullpen while adding a LH outfielder would be to do the following:

CWS Receive:

• Joey Gallo, OF*
• Ian Kennedy, RP

TEX Receive:

• Jared Kelley, SP
• Jonathan Stiever, SP
• James Beard, OF

Not sure if that’s enough depending on Gallo’s market, but we’d be giving up two of our top four prospects plus an interesting OF prospect.  I’m sure some would hate it, but it would address our two biggest needs in one fair swoop.

There isn't a snowballs chance in hell I would make that deal.

The Brewers got 2018 Anthony Swarzak from the Sox for Ryan Cordell.  They also got 2018 Joakim Soria from the Sox for Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez.

If this team replaces Marshall with 2018 Anthony Swarzak, demotes Foster for depth purposes because he has options and replaces him with 2018 Joakim Soria, the pen will look a whole lot better.

And we don't even need another shitty OF anyway.  Gallo is hitting .211/.362/.368 right now.  Offensively he is a turd.  Don't we have enough automatic K's in the lineup already?  Why trade Kelly or Stiever, much less both, for a guy who right now isn't any better than Danny Mendick?  

Personally I want to see an Adam Plutko deal, and I already mentioned that in another thread.  He's having a nice season with BAL and was acquired IIRC for cash.  He knows the division.  Pick him up for one of our many fringey AAA players and put him in the front of the pen and make him our new garbage man in place of Marshall. 

Then, go out and get a difference maker in the pen to handle some late inning situations.  Again, we shouldn't have to give up more than one of our fringey AAA depth pieces.  

I bet we could get a new spot starter/front-end garbage man and a kind of flukey setup man who is having a nice year right now for 2 of Rutherford/Gonzalez/Sheets. 

I also bet Burger gets us Kimbrel from the Cubs with at least some salary relief if we trust that guy (I don't). 

In terms of a nutty deal, I wonder if the M's would do Haniger + White for Burger + junk just to cut bait on that $22M or so owed to White up until his first buyout (I bet they would).  I would add Haniger to this team but not Gallo.  Haniger has 2 seasons left under team control after this one and his arb base is pretty low due to the injuries.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

There isn't a snowballs chance in hell I would make that deal.

The Brewers got 2018 Anthony Swarzak from the Sox for Ryan Cordell.  They also got 2018 Joakim Soria from the Sox for Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez.

If this team replaces Marshall with 2018 Anthony Swarzak, demotes Foster for depth purposes because he has options and replaces him with 2018 Joakim Soria, the pen will look a whole lot better.

And we don't even need another shitty OF anyway.  Gallo is hitting .211/.362/.368 right now.  Offensively he is a turd.  Don't we have enough automatic K's in the lineup already?  Why trade Kelly or Stiever, much less both, for a guy who right now isn't any better than Danny Mendick?  

Personally I want to see an Adam Plutko deal, and I already mentioned that in another thread.  He's having a nice season with BAL and was acquired IIRC for cash.  He knows the division.  Pick him up for one of our many fringey AAA players and put him in the front of the pen and make him our new garbage man in place of Marshall. 

Then, go out and get a difference maker in the pen to handle some late inning situations.  Again, we shouldn't have to give up more than one of our fringey AAA depth pieces.  

I bet we could get a new spot starter/front-end garbage man and a kind of flukey setup man who is having a nice year right now for 2 of Rutherford/Gonzalez/Sheets. 

I also bet Burger gets us Kimbrel from the Cubs with at least some salary relief if we trust that guy (I don't). 

In terms of a nutty deal, I wonder if the M's would do Haniger + White for Burger + junk just to cut bait on that $22M or so owed to White up until his first buyout (I bet they would).  I would add Haniger to this team but not Gallo.  Haniger has 2 seasons left under team control after this one and his arb base is pretty low due to the injuries.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=21,d&page=6_30
Bottom five defenders in baseball.

Interestingly, Hosmer and Gallo have both won Gold Gloves.

[YourWhatHurts]

Here's another potential trade idea:

Ross Detwiler again Ross Detwiler Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

How many balls would need to be in the bag in order to pry him from the Fish?

We can use a different garbage man at the front of our pen.  Marshall's salary will cause him to clear waivers.  We can talk to him, ask him to go to Charlotte and work things out, and if he is willing to do so, then we may be able to call him up later in case we have more garbage man problems.

[YourWhatHurts]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=21,d&page=6_30
Bottom five defenders in baseball.

Interestingly, Hosmer and Gallo have both won Gold Gloves.

Ouch.  I thought Gallo had a good rep.  Maybe he's bringing his bat to the field, or glove to the plate (probably both; hitting with this glove & catching with his bat).

[caulfield12]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

Ouch.  I thought Gallo had a good rep.  Maybe he's bringing his bat to the field, or glove to the plate (probably both; hitting with this glove & catching with his bat).

He’s fine or at least slightly below average in RF...but definitely not a CFer, any more than Avi Garcia is.