Updates on Kopech

[beautox]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Don't forget Rodon. There's a good chance he might not be around for the playoffs.  41-24 , 16 games left to reach the season midpoint. 66.2 IP so far. Assume he makes 3 more starts 5  IP /start to reach the midway point . That will give him right around 82 IP . Let me conservatively estimate 10 starts in the 2nd half at 5 IP/start to add another 55 innings which equals 137 IP.

How many IP do we think Rodon is capable of after pitching a combined 42 IP in the last 2 years ? 125 ? 150 ?

In the 2019 WS Nats v. Astros  9 starting pitchers were used. The 7 best all had between 184 and 258 IP

Rodon and Cease have never come close to that amount of IP.  The last time Keuchel did it was 2018. The Nats  ( the WS winners) used 5 different starting pitchers in the WS and the Astros used 4 . It's a fallacy that the Sox will only need 3 SP in the World Series. If you are looking for a big 3 it's likely to be Lynn Giolito and Keuchel or Cease .  Rodon and Kopech will likely be over the IP goals the Sox had hoped they could pitch this year and way over anything they have done in the past 2 years. Cease could also fit into that category. Keuchel will certainly pitch his most innings since 2018.

Valid points but the sox aren't alone in this vacuum; this is league wide. I anticipate the sox moving to a 6-7 man rotation with full blown bull pen games sprinkled in as well towards the end of the season in order to keep everyone fresh for a pennant push. With Bieber hitting the IL today and the tribe's rotation being held together with duct tape and Civale. With the sox divisional lead widening they'll likely be able to afford that approach. 

Edited June 14, 2021 by beautox
spelling

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, beautox said:

Valid points but the sox aren't alone in this vacuum; this is league wide. I anticipate the sox moving to a 6-7 man rotation with full blown bull pen games sprinkled in as well towards the end of the season in order to keep everyone fresh for a pennant push. With Bieber hitting the IL today and the tribe's rotation being held together with duct tape and Civale. With the sox divisional lead widening they'll likely be able to afford that approach. 

I would feel more convinced if you could tell me what other playoff caliber teams have 3 of their best pitchers ( Rodon Kopech and Crochet) with as little time pitching in MLB in the last 2 years as them. I already said the long season after the short season would cause problems league wide but I am talking about how it affects a team with World Series aspirations not pretenders to that particular goal. The longer the season goes the bigger the problem gets.

I gave you specifics that one team has and you gave me generalities . As of this moment Rodon is one of the best pitchers in the league who has already passed his combined innings pitched for the last 2 seasons and we are still 100 miles away from our 162 mile trip and after that trip is another one with uphill grueling miles.

Edited June 15, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[South Side Hit Men]

35 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I would feel more convinced if you could tell me what other playoff caliber teams have 3 of their best pitchers ( Rodon Kopech and Crochet) with as little time pitching in MLB in the last 2 years as them. I already said the long season after the short season would cause problems league wide but I am talking about how it affects a team with World Series aspirations not pretenders to that particular goal. The longer the season goes the bigger the problem gets.

The White Sox have far better starter depth than the Rays.

• Yarbrough (29 starts past three seasons; 14 career high)
• Glasnow (34 starts past three seasons; 14 career high (this year))
• Hill (21 starts past two years; 13 high (this year)

Lynn is defiantly one of the top three White Sox pitchers this year, and Lucas has a good shot of finishing as one of the Sox three best pitchers.

Edited June 15, 2021 by South Side Hit Men
H

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I would feel more convinced if you could tell me what other playoff caliber teams have 3 of their best pitchers ( Rodon Kopech and Crochet) with as little time pitching in MLB in the last 2 years as them. I already said the long season after the short season would cause problems league wide but I am talking about how it affects a team with World Series aspirations not pretenders to that particular goal. The longer the season goes the bigger the problem gets.

I gave you specifics that one team has and you gave me generalities . As of this moment Rodon is one of the best pitchers in the league who has already passed his combined innings pitched for the last 2 seasons and we are still 100 miles away from our 162 mile trip and after that trip is another one with uphill grueling miles.

Cease too.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The White Sox have far better starter depth than the Rays.

• Yarbrough (29 starts past three seasons; 14 career high)
• Glasnow (34 starts past three seasons; 14 career high (this year))
• Hill (21 starts past two years; 13 high (this year)

Lynn is defiantly one of the top three White Sox pitchers this year, and Lucas has a good shot of finishing as one of the Sox three best pitchers.

Due to financial constraints, TB has practically written the book on how to manage a pitching staff . They have started 11 different pitchers this year while the Sox have started 7.  Their top 5 starting pitchers have started 50 games while the Sox SP have started 61.

The Rays also believe 2 times through the batting order is enough for starting pitchers and that's another way they limit starters load and rely heavily on their BP.

They have a much deeper farm and pitching depth which allows them to mix and match . They have a deeper BP and recently traded Adames because they had Wall and Franco in the wings . One of the guys they got was Feyereisen who has been great for them since acquired and shut down the Sox for 2 innings tonight.

They play the best defense in baseball and never overlook defense when looking for players to acquire.

All these things haven't won them a World Series but it works great for the regular season as long as the talent evaluators eyes keep working. Despite the low budget and not great draft position they still somehow manage to identify and develop talent through pitching ,hitting and defense and do not hesitate to rid themselves of talent when it gets expensive or is necessitated by up and coming farm hands

The Sox are overly reliant on their SP . Their BP is nowhere near as good or deep as TB. The Sox must start curbing their SP innings or they will either be unable to pitch or very tired for the playoffs. This means at least 2 BP arms who can pitch well .Fry may be back soon and this will help some with the depth but a guy just like Freyeresien would be tremendous.

I'm not very worried about Lynn or Giolito but I am definitely worried about Rodon ,Kopech, Cease, Crochet and Keuchel running out of gas. They all will be needed to  to contribute to winning playoff games if the Sox can get passed the 1st round.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Cease too.

Keuchel also has had 2 short seasons in a row prior to this one. 2019 signed very late with Atlanta and 2020 Covid. The pitching dynamic changes in a hurry If Rodon is removed from the playoff equation.

[South Side Hit Men]

17 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Due to financial constraints, TB has practically written the book on how to manage a pitching staff . They have started 11 different pitchers this year while the Sox have started 7.  Their top 5 starting pitchers have started 50 games while the Sox SP have started 61.

The Rays also believe 2 times through the batting order is enough for starting pitchers and that's another way they limit starters load and rely heavily on their BP.

They have a much deeper farm and pitching depth which allows them to mix and match . They have a deeper BP and recently traded Adames because they had Wall and Franco in the wings . One of the guys they got was Feyereisen who has been great for them since acquired and shut down the Sox for 2 innings tonight.

They play the best defense in baseball and never overlook defense when looking for players to acquire.

All these things haven't won them a World Series but it works great for the regular season as long as the talent evaluators eyes keep working. Despite the low budget and not great draft position they still somehow manage to identify and develop talent through pitching ,hitting and defense and do not hesitate to rid themselves of talent when it gets expensive or is necessitated by up and coming farm hands

The Sox are overly reliant on their SP . Their BP is nowhere near as good or deep as TB. The Sox must start curbing their SP innings or they will either be unable to pitch or very tired for the playoffs. This means at least 2 BP arms who can pitch well .Fry may be back soon and this will help some with the depth but a guy just like Freyeresien would be tremendous.

I'm not very worried about Lynn or Giolito but I am definitely worried about Rodon ,Kopech, Cease, Crochet and Keuchel running out of gas. They all will be needed to  to contribute to winning playoff games if the Sox can get passed the 1st round.

I concur on the greatness of TB's FO and Manager/Coaches managing the entire roster.

Can you imagine SoxTalk if the Sox had Wander Franco, kept him in the minors hitting .933 OPS in AAA, the Sox trade their starting SS in May, and still kept Franco down?

I also agree with you regarding load management for Sox starters and two young bullpen arms. That said, the Sox are doing a good job managing their load. I expect a few more IL stints, hopefully minor and/or phantom ailments as has been the case to date, to help them get extra rest when needed. Rodon is the major concern in terms of lasting the whole season. They are managing Kopech well, and I don't expect him inserted into a starting role into the end of the season, if at all. Crochet is bullpen only regardless, so he is likely around 80-90, perhaps near 100 if they reach the WS.

Keuchel is here to eat 5-6 innings a start and try to keep opponents to 3-4 runs. Overpay for those expectations, but it is what it is. He doesn't throw hard, isn't a huge injury risk, but even if he did get hurt and missed 2 + months, that buys the Sox flexibility in 2023 shedding $20M. Would help with a FA acquisition and/or Lynn extension if warranted.

The Sox should have a big enough lead to screw around with a minor league starter for 6-8 starts this season (Lopez, Lambert, whatever) and not worry about any impact on the divisional race, either by going 6 man for a strech; juggling load management IL stints, or having one legitimate lengthy IL injury.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I concur on the greatness of TB's FO and Manager/Coaches managing the entire roster.

Can you imagine SoxTalk if the Sox had Wander Franco, kept him in the minors hitting .933 OPS in AAA, the Sox trade their starting SS in May, and still kept Franco down?

I also agree with you regarding load management for Sox starters and two young bullpen arms. That said, the Sox are doing a good job managing their load. I expect a few more IL stints, hopefully minor and/or phantom ailments as has been the case to date, to help them get extra rest when needed. Rodon is the major concern in terms of lasting the whole season. They are managing Kopech well, and I don't expect him inserted into a starting role into the end of the season, if at all. Crochet is bullpen only regardless, so he is likely around 80-90, perhaps near 100 if they reach the WS.

Keuchel is here to eat 5-6 innings a start and try to keep opponents to 3-4 runs. Overpay for those expectations, but it is what it is. He doesn't throw hard, isn't a huge injury risk, but even if he did get hurt and missed 2 + months, that buys the Sox flexibility in 2023 shedding $20M. Would help with a FA acquisition and/or Lynn extension if warranted.

The Sox should have a big enough lead to screw around with a minor league starter for 6-8 starts this season (Lopez, Lambert, whatever) and not worry about any impact on the divisional race, either by going 6 man for a strech; juggling load management IL stints, or having one legitimate lengthy IL injury.

Crochet will be BP only and the Sox recently announced they will use him now for some 2 inning stints. Maybe by the end of the year they move him up to some 3 innings stints. My personal opinion is if the Sox get 70 healthy innings this season and perhaps 80 counting the playoffs that would be great. More than that might be pushing the envelop a bit .

He's around 22 so far counting tonight so my guess, if healthy, he gets to 65 but if Fry comes back and Crochet has one of those phantom injuries it may not be that many. I don't think there's any way he gets over 80 including the playoffs but I'm not managing his health and IP so I don't really know what they have in mind. I'm erring on the side of caution while I think your guess is throwing caution to the wind.

[South Side Hit Men]

40 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Crochet will be BP only and the Sox recently announced they will use him now for some 2 inning stints. Maybe by the end of the year they move him up to some 3 innings stints. My personal opinion is if the Sox get 70 healthy innings this season and perhaps 80 counting the playoffs that would be great. More than that might be pushing the envelop a bit .

He's around 22 so far counting tonight so my guess, if healthy, he gets to 65 but if Fry comes back and Crochet has one of those phantom injuries it may not be that many. I don't think there's any way he gets over 80 including the playoffs but I'm not managing his health and IP so I don't really know what they have in mind. I'm erring on the side of caution while I think your guess is throwing caution to the wind.

If Crochet graduates this threshold, reaches Kopech level or close in 2022 (say 120 reg season or 140 total innings, carefully managed like Kopech), he could start for most of 2023, maximizing his value.

Katz is tending to the little things to keep pitchers healthy and effective. I don’t think Kopech and Crochet even get this far 2 1/2 months in under Cooper, not to mention Rodon and Cease’s health and effectiveness, when both showed little in close to a combined decade under Cooper.

Tampa Bay has had the benefit of modern pitching coaches for a decade, the Sox are just starting to make that leap. Haven’t heard anything about a “pitching lab” as teams like the Astros and Cubs have, but pitchers like Rodon are working with outside labs (ProX). Perhaps Michael Reinsdorf will find the benefit of investing in-house on this front once his father is out of the picture.

[beautox]

On 6/14/2021 at 10:56 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Crochet will be BP only and the Sox recently announced they will use him now for some 2 inning stints. Maybe by the end of the year they move him up to some 3 innings stints. My personal opinion is if the Sox get 70 healthy innings this season and perhaps 80 counting the playoffs that would be great. More than that might be pushing the envelop a bit .

He's around 22 so far counting tonight so my guess, if healthy, he gets to 65 but if Fry comes back and Crochet has one of those phantom injuries it may not be that many. I don't think there's any way he gets over 80 including the playoffs but I'm not managing his health and IP so I don't really know what they have in mind. I'm erring on the side of caution while I think your guess is throwing caution to the wind.

I'm in the camp that they'll utilize Crochet in this fashion this year 2 inning possible 3 inning stints as well getting him close to 100ip and then going into next year keep that plan but sprinkle in spot starts like Kopech this year and in '23 take over the rotation spot for whom ever accepts their QO if they can't work out a long term deal.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

24 minutes ago, beautox said:

I'm in the camp that they'll utilize Crochet in this fashion this year 2 inning possible 3 inning stints as well getting him close to 100ip and then going into next year keep that plan but sprinkle in spot starts like Kopech this year and in '23 take over the rotation spot for whom ever accepts their QO if they can't work out a long term deal.

We shall see. You know already I don't think Crochet gets close to 100 IP.

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

We shall see. You know already I don't think Crochet gets close to 100 IP.

Next year will be a little over 100 barring injury. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

21 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Next year will be a little over 100 barring injury. 

Oh so nice of you to back me up when I had 2 other posters telling me 100. Thank you . I said 75-80 maxed out this year barring injury if you count the playoffs.

Any idea on Rodon ? He's pitched 42 combined inning in the last 2 years and already at 67 now. I've been saying he really needs get some skipped starts and 5 inning outings to slow him down. I can't really see him going too much beyond 125 this year so I'd hate to lose him for the playoffs.

Edited June 16, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ptatc]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Oh so nice of you to back me up when I had 2 other posters telling me 100. Thank you . I said 75-80 maxed out this year barring injury if you count the playoffs.

Any idea on Rodon ? He's pitched 42 combined inning in the last 2 years and already at 67 now. I've been saying he really needs get some skipped starts and 5 inning outings to slow him down. I can't really see him going too much beyond 125 this year so I'd hate to lose him for the playoffs.

I would guess 60 for crochet. 

I can't rodon being anymore than 150 for the season and playoffs.

[Blackout Friday]

I know many disagree with me, and that’s fine, but I don’t see Crochet as a starter. 

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Blackout Friday said:

I know many disagree with me, and that’s fine, but I don’t see Crochet as a starter. 

I don't think anyone really knows. He needs reliever innings this year. Kopech part time starter needs next year. It remains to be seen if he can handle that load.

[mmmmmbeeer]

4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

Any idea on Rodon ? 

Rodon's situation, in a contract year, is wholly different than Kopech, Crochet, and Cease. They will happily run him into the ground as long as he's relatively effective.  If that's 200ip, then that's what he'll pitch.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

43 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

Rodon's situation, in a contract year, is wholly different than Kopech, Crochet, and Cease. They will happily run him into the ground as long as he's relatively effective.  If that's 200ip, then that's what he'll pitch.

I doubt it with 99.9 % of my brain. They know him being effective through the playoffs gives them a better shot to win the World Series. In order to get to that point his IP have to be managed.

It was already said in March that they had a plan for him . I know $3M a year is motivation for sign with the Sox but I'm sure they talked about how he would be used before he signed. 

I'm sure he was told he would be given an opportunity to win a spot in the rotation and if he did there would be a plan to keep him as healthy as possible.

They also know that if they do not abuse him he has a better chance to resign with them. He knows after this year if he stays healthy he may get a lot more money so if he feels he's getting abused he can shut himself down.

It also hurts the Sox on the free agent pitcher market if word spreads that they don't care about the health of their pitchers in a walk year. Nor will that reputation help when trying to get guys like Giolito to sign an extension. Big Picture.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Blackout Friday said:

I know many disagree with me, and that’s fine, but I don’t see Crochet as a starter. 

I really don't either but I'd sure as shit try to get him to be a starter eventually.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 hours ago, Blackout Friday said:

I know many disagree with me, and that’s fine, but I don’t see Crochet as a starter. 

Why not? He has three pitches and has shown an ability to maintain velocity into the 35-40 pitch count. Build up that arm strength and it goes further.

[SonofaRoache]

I think we are being cautious with Kopech to protect his leg and to preserve innings on his arm. 

[SonofaRoache]

15 hours ago, Blackout Friday said:

I know many disagree with me, and that’s fine, but I don’t see Crochet as a starter. 

He's evolution won't be too different from Sale's. You have to give him a chance to start before you turn him into Andrew Miller, Chapman, or Hendricks. 

[SpringfieldFan]

11 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I doubt it with 99.9 % of my brain. They know him being effective through the playoffs gives them a better shot to win the World Series. In order to get to that point his IP have to be managed.

It was already said in March that they had a plan for him . I know $3M a year is motivation for sign with the Sox but I'm sure they talked about how he would be used before he signed. 

I'm sure he was told he would be given an opportunity to win a spot in the rotation and if he did there would be a plan to keep him as healthy as possible.

They also know that if they do not abuse him he has a better chance to resign with them. He knows after this year if he stays healthy he may get a lot more money so if he feels he's getting abused he can shut himself down.

It also hurts the Sox on the free agent pitcher market if word spreads that they don't care about the health of their pitchers in a walk year. Nor will that reputation help when trying to get guys like Giolito to sign an extension. Big Picture.

Yeah. They will manage his innings to avoid running him into the ground but do it in such a way they don't have to just shut him down before the playoffs even start.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

13 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I doubt it with 99.9 % of my brain

So not much doubt then

[chitownsportsfan]

He needs to start pitching again imo.  At this point rust and development outweigh any potential innings limit.  I know they are slow playing this but it's probably time to get him back out there here in a few days.