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Projecting fWAR near 1/3rd pole of season


caulfield12

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Moncada   6.0

Abreu/TA   3.9

Mercedes  3.3 (probably 3.6 or 3.9 after last night)

Robert       3.0 (from just one month)

Grandal     3.0

Madrigal   2.4

Eaton        2.1

Vaughn     1.8  (should end up higher, missed a lot of at-bats early)

Mendick    1.2

Hamilton   0.6

Collins       0.0

Leury        -0.6

 

 

Rodon   6.0

Lynn      3.9

Cease    3.6 or 3.9 (updates tmrw)

Kopech/Gio  2.7

Keuchel/Hendriks    1.5

Heuer       1.2

Ruiz, Crochet, Bummer    0.6

Foster     0.3

Marshall  -0.6

 

 

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6 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

6war for Rodon would likely mean he would reject the QO right, can't imagine it would be enough for Boras.  6war, sheesh

Yes, he will get a number of 2-4 year (max) offers from other teams...with top value likely to be around 4 and $70-85 million, depending upon how he finishes out the season and playoffs.

Giolito is going to be a tough one.

All things considered, Lynn is the best bet, but then you have his age...wondering when the "fall off a cliff" point is, his conditioning issues, allegations (like everyone in baseball) about movement/unnatural spin rates due to foreign substances.

 

Assuming the QO system is still around after the CBA is re-opened, we would at least get some compensation back for Rodon and Lynn via draft picks.

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, he will get a number of 2-4 year (max) offers from other teams...with top value likely to be around 4 and $70-85 million, depending upon how he finishes out the season and playoffs.

Giolito is going to be a tough one.

All things considered, Lynn is the best bet, but then you have his age...wondering when the "fall off a cliff" point is, his conditioning issues, allegations (like everyone in baseball) about movement/unnatural spin rates due to foreign substances.

 

Assuming the QO system is still around after the CBA is re-opened, we would at least get some compensation back for Rodon and Lynn via draft picks.

Lynn has already declined a QO. The White Sox can't offer him one.

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Moncada 6.6

Abreu 4.8

TA7  4.2

Mercedes/Grandal  3.3

Luis Robert  3.0

Madrigal  2.4

Eaton  2.1

Vaughn  1.8

Lamb  1.2

Mendick/Hamilton  0.9

Collins  0.0

Leury  -0.3

 

Rodon  6.0

Lynn  4.8

Cease 3.9

Giolito will be 3.0 or 3.3 after yesterday

Kopech 2.7

Hendriks  2.1

Heuer  1.2

Keuchel/Crochet/Ruiz/Bummer  0.6

Foster 0.3

Marshall 0.0

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Moncada 6.6

Abreu 4.8

TA7  4.2

Mercedes/Grandal  3.3

Luis Robert  3.0

Madrigal  2.4

Eaton  2.1

Vaughn  1.8

Lamb  1.2

Mendick/Hamilton  0.9

Collins  0.0

Leury  -0.3

 

Rodon  6.0

Lynn  4.8

Cease 3.9

Giolito will be 3.0 or 3.3 after yesterday

Kopech 2.7

Hendriks  2.1

Heuer  1.2

Keuchel/Crochet/Ruiz/Bummer  0.6

Foster 0.3

Marshall 0.0

Too bad Madrigal sucks.

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On 5/28/2021 at 7:34 AM, joesaiditstrue said:

6war for Rodon would likely mean he would reject the QO right, can't imagine it would be enough for Boras.  6war, sheesh

Teams won't forget his injury history though. He has a good age but his injury history will drag him down. 

I think best case for him is what eovaldi got (4/70 or so). 

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I don’t consider fWAR valuable for projecting a pace / rest of the season (simply multiplying current fWAR by (162 / games played).

Doesn’t take into account injuries and the inevitable slumps and hit streaks in a season, short changes players who started slow, exaggerates performance for a hot start.

Thought it was nonsense to multiply 2020 fWAR by 2.7 to state that was the players “true” 2020 season.

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20 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

On the other hand our old friend Omar Narvaez is on pace for around 4.5.  Guess his defense has really improved good for him he could always hit.

Don’t look at Semien, Bassitt, Eduardo Escobar, Padres, etc.

Omar Narvaez=3.8 fWAR (2019-21)

Alex Colome=0.8 fWAR

 

Frankie Montas=4.8 WAR (2018-21)

Bassitt=7.1 fWAR (with A’s)

 

Edited by caulfield12
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