Heyman: Sox interested in someone on some team. Nightengale: *nods*

[Dominikk85]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Vaughns xwOBA is 337, which would put him right around a 108-112 wRC+, but yes... please lets send him down and call up Blake Rutherford or something. White Sox mania, 2021! The rational thinkers like Cali and two-guns are just speaking facts while the rest of us are naive to the idea of sending down your only healthy outfielder and replacing him with a guy who won't hit lefties or righties. Truly 4D TLR level chess going on here.

The White Sox just called up Luis Gonzalez lol with their latest OF injury and now they should send down Vaughn so they can call up another subpar AAA player. Genius!

Slow players do tend to not reach their xWOBA though

 

Pujols has a 311 WOBA and a 330 xWOBA since 2015 (statcast start) 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Dominikk85

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You'd give Burger his shot... in LF? ?

Leury Garcia has an xwOBA of .266, Vaughns is .337. But you'd play Leury. Got it.

Nah, I'd give Burger his shot at DH. 

I'd go Lamb/Leury/Goodwin left-to-right in the OF vs. RHP, until Eaton or Hamilton are available.

Edited June 22, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[South Side Hit Men]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Thanks for the support but apparently judging by the ever popular emoji's there are a lot more people who believe Vaughn's development is far more important than winning now. Our minor difference of opinion between sending him down or keep playing him against LHP is also based on winning now because I  don't want the lineup to just "manage" against LHP . Every win is important to winning now even against LHP. The difference between getting home field advantage could be just 1 game in the standings and I don't like taking our best hitter against LHP out of the lineup or getting the chance to pinch hit in big situations against LHP.

I believe you hold this view, but are discounting the fact that your proposed alternatives (Lamb, Goodwin and Leury) are not better than Vaughn if they played on an everyday or near everyday vs. RHP basis. 

Vaughn is the second best defender of the four, Goodwin may be "faster", but his routes and technique are terrible and his defensive metrics over the years exposed this. This is why he was left for the taking in mid-May.

In terms of hitting, Jake Lamb has had limited playing time to allow him the most favorable pitching matchups. If he were to play regularly  75% of the time (100% starts vs. RHP), the probability is very high his OPS take a big nose dive. And that is not even addressing the fact that he is not even a marginal OF, he only plays for a few at bats, and in any close game is replaced by someone who can actually play the outfield.

Garcia is already playing everyday, and while he can field, his hitting is terrible with no upside. The more he plays, the more he is exposed to pitching, and decreased health. Vaughn has a much better chance to improve on his small sample size struggles, and has greater upside this year, than anything Leury can offer. It's better for the Sox to let Vaughn play everyday, for the success of this year's team, than any of these three alternatives.

Edited June 22, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

36 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Slow players do tend to not reach their xWOBA though

 

Pujols has a 311 WOBA and a 330 xWOBA since 2015 (statcast start) 

This is not true. There's no correlation between sprint speed and xwOBA variance.

For example, Shohei and Acuna have underperformed their xwOBA and Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriell have over performed there's.

This year, the change in the baseball has effected the link between xwOBA and wOBA though - as the r value is lower than years past but it may normalize as the weather warms and offense returns to normal a bit. Time will tell.

Edit: I stand corrected slightly, thanks Dominkk. My apologies.

Edited June 22, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Nah, I'd give Burger his shot at DH.

I'd go Lamb/Leury/Goodwin left-to-right vs. RHP, until Eaton or Hamilton are available.

Leury is significantly worse than Vaughn offensively. The White Sox have a power issue, Leury has a .065 ISO. Vaughns ISO is 172. Vaughns offensive numbers even with struggles against righties are significantly better than Leury.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Leury is significantly worse than Vaughn offensively. The White Sox have a power issue, Leury has a .065 ISO. Vaughns ISO is 172. Vaughns offensive numbers even with struggles against righties are significantly better than Leury.

Leury is not the inferior overall hitter vs. RHP, RIGHT NOW:

Andrew Vaughn's Splits

Leury Garcia's Splits

 

I agree that Vaughn will be the better hitter and the better player. But that day is not today, at least not yet. Vaughn is getting worse at the plate month-over-month, and he's getting killed vs RHP. Let him get a few weeks in Charlotte, and hopefully, that can get him back and ready to contribute. 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Leury is not the inferior overall hitter vs. RHP, RIGHT NOW:

Andrew Vaughn's Splits

Leury Garcia's Splits

 

I agree that Vaughn will be the better hitter and the better player. But that day is not today, at least not yet. Vaughn is getting worse at the plate month-over-month, and he's getting killed vs RHP. Let him get a few weeks in Charlotte, and hopefully, that can get him back and ready to contribute. 

 

Leury Garcia has atrocious numbers vs righties WITH a .344 BABIP.

Vaughn has bad numbers vs righties with a BABIP 60-70 points (236) under where it should sit.

Vaughn is the obvious choice in LF over Leury Garcia.

Edit: I'm not ready to draw conclusions on Vaughn vs righties after 124 AB's. I KNOW Leury sucks vs righties based on his entire career. Vaughn has been clutch and shown flashes, Leury just gives me flashes of pain.

Edited June 22, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Dominikk85]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is not true. There's no correlation between sprint speed and xwOBA variance.

For example, Shohei and Acuna have underperformed their xwOBA and Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriell have over performed there's.

This year, the change in the baseball has effected the link between xwOBA and wOBA though - as the r value is lower than years past but it may normalize as the weather warms and offense returns to normal a bit. Time will tel.

Actually there are studies suggesting there is quite a correlation of footspeed and xwoba-woba

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-sprint-speed-relates-to-woba-xwoba/

It is not just infield hits but also infields playing deeper which means less grounders and low liners go through. 

Of course that doesn't mean a fast guy can't have a low wOBA - xwOBA but long term slow guys have the largest gap. 

 

WOBA - xwOBA since 2017, the "leaders" are almost all slow

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=1000&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results

 

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh, you're right. You said you wanted to play Leury Garcia and his 77 wRC+ over him. Even better.

Two gun said he wanted to send him down and you played tummy sticks with that idea.

If your idea of a good case is to use only some things I said and lie about other things I said you better stick to checkers and because lying , being smarmy and only using half truths is pretty pitiful.

I said Leury, Goodwin and Lamb and I also said Engel before he was injured.

SO since you are so fond of wRC+ lets look at all 4 players in that stat against RHP.

Vaughn 35

Leury 83

Lamb 123

Engel 155

Goodwin 216

You lose. Maybe even checkers is too complex for you.

Obviously with the injury to Engel and Leury being the main CF now Vaughn will get plenty of time in the OF against RHP and I'm cool with that but not cool with you distorting everything I say.

Plus even though you admitted I was right about your lie that I said Vaughn should be sent down but you doubled down by saying it was my idea to use Leury only when clearly I used more than Leury as an example . And even though you posted a bald face lie about what I said and  you admitted I was right you didn't take that lie out of your post. How low can you go ? Maybe the limbo is your thing, not checkers and not chess of any kind.

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Actually there are studies suggesting there is quite a correlation of footspeed and xwoba-woba

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-sprint-speed-relates-to-woba-xwoba/

It is not just infield hits but also infields playing deeper which means less grounders and low liners go through. 

Of course that doesn't mean a fast guy can't have a low wOBA - xwOBA but long term slow guys have the largest gap. 

 

WOBA - xwOBA since 2017, the "leaders" are almost all slow

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=1000&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results

 

 

 

This is interesting; when looking at 2019 the r value is lower than the .47 value they show for 2018 which isn't THAT big.

Good read in general, and I'll stand partly corrected but still maintain it's not substantial - we're talking a few points, not 20-30.

I also wish the shift was accounted for here in their numbers as 5 of the guys on that top list are shifted against.

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Leury Garcia has atrocious numbers vs righties WITH a .344 BABIP.

Vaughn has bad numbers vs righties with a BABIP 60-70 points (236) under where it should sit.

Vaughn is the obvious choice in LF over Leury Garcia.

Edit: I'm not ready to draw conclusions on Vaughn vs righties after 124 AB's. I KNOW Leury sucks vs righties based on his entire career. Vaughn has been clutch and shown flashes, Leury just gives me flashes of pain.

Vaughn has atrocious numbers vs RHP, and we don't yet know what his BABIP should be, because of SSS. His BaBIP might be higher or lower than average, but we don't yet know.

As an aside, where do you keep coming up with Leury in LF or Burger in LF? I'd written Leury in CF, and Burger as DH.

 

At the same time, Vaughn's wrc+ has dropped from 110 in March/April to 80 in June. That's a 27.3% fall off a cliff. In rookies, that means that opposing pitchers have him figured out, and/or that that rookie hasn't made any adjustments.

Vaughn's decline in performance overall, PLUS his ineffectiveness vs RHP means that he needs more time to develop. In a "win now" season, he'd be better off doing it in MiLB. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

It seems like you feel that Andrew Vaughn will never improve, which I can't disagree with enough.  He's a rookie going through rookie growth pains.  Maybe a Jake Lamb is a better option today, but Andrew Vaughn is going to be a professional hitter for a long time at the major league level.  If he had been able to play OF when he was drafted, he may well have been a 1-1 candidate.  You given Andrew Vaughn all of the ABs you can because unlike Jake Lamb, the kid has major upside.  Heck there is even a real chance that Vaughn is a better hitter by the end of this season, let alone the next 10 years.

Once again you interpreting how I feel rather than going with the multiple posts based on what I actually said. I have said in many posts I am very optimistic about Vaughn's future at 1st base. Not so optimistic as you just said about there being better options against RHP available on the roster now. One of them was eliminated with the Engel injury so Vaughn will get plenty of AB's against RHP.  I was never blind to the fact that even without the Engel injury he would continue to get PT against RHP. It's more about winning now .

I am in the same boat as everyone else about Vaughn's future and have made enough posts stating that .  You don't ever seem real keen about using things I actually said so please stop interpreting my feelings since you can't get it right.

[southsider2k5]

31 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If your idea of a good case is to use only some things I said and lie about other things I said you better stick to checkers and because lying , being smarmy and only using half truths is pretty pitiful.

I said Leury, Goodwin and Lamb and I also said Engel before he was injured.

SO since you are so fond of wRC+ lets look at all 4 players in that stat against RHP.

Vaughn 35

Leury 83

Lamb 123

Engel 155

Goodwin 216

You lose. Maybe even checkers is too complex for you.

Obviously with the injury to Engel and Leury being the main CF now Vaughn will get plenty of time in the OF against RHP and I'm cool with that but not cool with you distorting everything I say.

 

So your list consists of the guy who just got put back on to the DL, and one with a literal 32 AB sample, presented as equal information.  OK.  That's all I need to know about how honest you are being here.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Once again you interpreting how I feel rather than going with the multiple posts based on what I actually said. I have said in many posts I am very optimistic about Vaughn's future at 1st base. Not so optimistic as you just said about there being better options against RHP available on the roster now. One of them was eliminated with the Engel injury so Vaughn will get plenty of AB's against RHP.  I was never blind to the fact that even without the Engel injury he would continue to get PT against RHP. It's more about winning now .

I am in the same boat as everyone else about Vaughn's future and have made enough posts stating that .  You don't ever seem real keen about using things I actually said so please stop interpreting my feelings since you can't get it right.

Winning now is nice, but winning in October is WAY more fucking important.  Don't lose sight of that.  Brian Goodwin and Jake Lamb aren't going to help you win in October.  Andrew Vaughn can help you win in October.

Maybe I'd be more panicked now if we were behind, but we aren't, and the team chasing us has lost most of their starting pitching staff.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Huh?  

What's the confusion? I want the best players to play every day this year regardless of future player development because I think this year will be the best chance to win a World Series and winning as many games as possible is the main key in getting home field advantage for the playoffs. Vaughn is great against LHP and is going to play against RHP. I just don't think it should've been as much as you think . But now with Engel injured he can continue to develop as you liked.

You on the other hand want to develop Vaughn and possibly sacrifice this year to that end because Vaughn 35 wRC+  vs. RHP is way better than

Leury's 83 now the main CF

Lamb 123

the now injured Engel's 155

Goodwins 216

So yea I wanted those guys to get a shot not so much at the expense of Vaughn ,but certainly equal time because winning now is important and I don't see a better chance in the future years as I see now.

Only time will tell about what I said about not winning a World Series in Vaughns heydays with the Sox.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Winning now is nice, but winning in October is WAY more fucking important.  Don't lose sight of that.  Brian Goodwin and Jake Lamb aren't going to help you win in October.  Andrew Vaughn can help you win in October.

Maybe I'd be more panicked now if we were behind, but we aren't, and the team chasing us has lost most of their starting pitching staff.

Winning now is nice because it contributes to winning in the way more fucking important October. How do you think teams get home field advantage ? Sox very good at home .

[Jack Parkman]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Winning now is nice, but winning in October is WAY more fucking important.  Don't lose sight of that.  Brian Goodwin and Jake Lamb aren't going to help you win in October.  Andrew Vaughn can help you win in October.

Maybe I'd be more panicked now if we were behind, but we aren't, and the team chasing us has lost most of their starting pitching staff.

They're just going to get easily dismissed in October anyway, what's the point? 

I look at the Sox and I don't think they matchup well at all with the Astros/Rays/A's/Yankees/Boston

Edited June 22, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Winning now is nice because it contributes to winning in the way more fucking important October. How do you think teams get home field advantage ? Sox very good at home .

Unless you think we can win in October with two OFs who were MiLB free agents during this season in Jake Lamb and Brian Goodwin, you are punting tomorrow to win today.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Unless you think we can win in October with two OFs who were MiLB free agents during this season in Jake Lamb and Brian Goodwin, you are punting tomorrow to win today.

There's nothing they could reasonably add that would allow them to win in October. The rest of the AL field is just better. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

There's nothing they could reasonably add that would allow them to win in October. The rest of the AL field is just better. 

If you felt differently, I would be worried.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Unless you think we can win in October with two OFs who were MiLB free agents during this season in Jake Lamb and Brian Goodwin, you are punting tomorrow to win today.

Agreed honestly. Goodwin likely will not be here when Eloy and Robert come back. Neither will Hamilton. Unless they dfa Eaton and option Yermin. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I believe you hold this view, but are discounting the fact that your proposed alternatives (Lamb, Goodwin and Leury) are not better than Vaughn if they played on an everyday or near everyday vs. RHP basis. 

Vaughn is the second best defender of the four, Goodwin may be "faster", but his routes and technique are terrible and his defensive metrics over the years exposed this. This is why he was left for the taking in mid-May.

In terms of hitting, Jake Lamb has had limited playing time to allow him the most favorable pitching matchups. If he were to play regularly  75% of the time (100% starts vs. RHP), the probability is very high his OPS take a big nose dive. And that is not even addressing the fact that he is not even a marginal OF, he only plays for a few at bats, and in any close game is replaced by someone who can actually play the outfield.

Garcia is already playing everyday, and while he can field, his hitting is terrible with no upside. The more he plays, the more he is exposed to pitching, and decreased health. Vaughn has a much better chance to improve on his small sample size struggles, and has greater upside this year, than anything Leury can offer. It's better for the Sox to let Vaughn play everyday, for the success of this year's team, than any of these three alternatives.

Leury has been playing on an every day basis and so has Vaughn. Leury 83 wRC+ ,Vaughn 35 wRC+ both against RHP. If his hitting is terrible what would you call Vaughn's. You're banking on upside happening.

Vaughn the 2nd best defender is quite the stretch. DO you think he'd be better in CF over Goodwin? Goodwin can actually play CF even if not so well because of his speed. Every day that goes by and Vaughn gets more and more chances ,his Outs Against Average will continue to get lower and lower. That cannot be denied when more and more flyballs will be beyond his grasp due to his lack of speed. You put Goodwin in a corner and he's superior to Vaughn.

This Lamb theory about favorable matchups is news to me even though I have seen you say it before. Tell me about it ,make a case. With as many blogs and Sox writers out there I'd love to see anything that supports this favorable matchup theory about Lamb against RHP. If anything you could say Vaughn is being played against favorable RHP matchups and his stats are still terrible against them.

Just like you are banking on Vaughn's upside I'll admit I'm banking on Lamb or Goodwin both being better hitters than Vaughn against RHP based on their handedness and the results to date as small as they might be.

So yes I really believe what I am saying just as you believe what you are saying. I have a tiny bit of proof in small sample sizes. I'm not sure you have any proof unless you want to count any evidence to can find about Lambs favorable matchups or Vaughn being the 2nd best defender left in the OF or Vaughn's upside against RHP happening  relatively soon.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There's nothing they could reasonably add that would allow them to win in October. The rest of the AL field is just better. 

Sure there is . They are named Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte and a relief pitcher or 2 .Can't really count on Eloy and Robert getting back to 100% but like Engel he was pretty good in the small amount of time he had. Maybe the Sox slow play Eloy and Robert because of that especially Robert. Eloy's issue wasn't his legs. How much help the Sox decide to go after is up to Scrooge McDuck so I understand your hesitancy about that. But some real winnable games coming up before the All Star break and the Sox could be in the hunt for the best record in the AL if they win a fair share of them. I'll keep prioritizing home field advantage . Not so sure anyone else is including Reinsdorf or the fans.

All I keep hearing is Vaughn ,yum yum, development,yum yum ,more important than home field advantage or the World Series and ,yummmy, future teams , decade long dominance, 2nd wave ,mmm mmm good, sustained success . SO yup eating up what Hahn and Reinsdorf are selling with a big ole spoon.

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Nah, I'd give Burger his shot at DH. 

I'd go Lamb/Leury/Goodwin left-to-right in the OF vs. RHP, until Eaton or Hamilton are available.

Sadly...I agree.  There is no reason not to give Burger a shot at DH.  Your outfield is the best we have and we both know it's pathetic.  We need a couple of quality replacements and we need them now.

[Sox80]

So nothing new on the Escobar talks?