Trade an asset

[The Kids Can Play]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, Keuchel is signed.  Rodon and Lynn are FAs.  I love how you're penciling in 2 dudes that are FA, but removing the guy signed for 22 (and likely 2023).

Of course I want Lynn.  So will 29 other clubs.  He seems to like it here so maybe the Sox can get him to re-sign, but its far from a certainty. Hence the "maybe I could see Lynn resigning" comment.  

Rodon is gone after 2021 man.  At minimum, he's getting something like 3/$45M due to his history. The Sox should not the high bidders on this one as its extremely likely to not turn out well.  And they know that.   Ride him hard in 2021, and let him get paid and injured with someone else.  

I know Keuchel is signed for next year. It's called doing a trade. Keuchel sucks! His slow 80-85 mph pitches are too slow and have little movement. He is an obsolete pitcher by today's pitching standards of upper 90's pitchers. According to Kuechel's contract, paying him 18 million in '22 and 20 million in '23 is just plain stupid and a waste of money. He needs to be traded.

I didn't know Rodon going to another team next year was a done deal. Have you had conversations with Rodon or his agent lately? LOL. I'm also assuming we don't have to bid high to keep Rodon. I still think Rodon has a lot left. Like Steve Stone said, the 2nd year after TJ surgery is when you really see a difference. 

 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, The Kids Can Play said:

I know Keuchel is signed for next year. It's called doing a trade. Keuchel sucks! His slow 80-85 mph pitches are too slow and have little movement. He is an obsolete pitcher by today's pitching standards of upper 90's pitchers. According to Kuechel's contract, paying him 18 million in '22 and 20 million in '23 is just plain stupid and a waste of money. He needs to be traded.

I didn't know Rodon going to another team next year was a done deal. Have you had conversations with Rodon or his agent lately? LOL. I'm also assuming we don't have to bid high to keep Rodon. I still think Rodon has a lot left. Like Steve Stone said, the 2nd year after TJ surgery is when you really see a difference. 

Lol, alright man.  Keep living in fantasy world.  

The Sox didn't sign Keuchel to be a fire throwing ace.  Keuchel is 12-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.71 FIP with the Sox.  What exactly are you looking for?  He's fine and FAR from this clubs problem.  He has no trade value because he's paid what he's worth.  The Sox are not in a position to give away a rock solid mid rotation starter for nothing, to turn around and pay market value for an enormous injury risk in Rodon.

Rodon has never thrown over 165 innings in his career.  He is on pace to surpass that this year if he remains healthy.  He's pitched 69 or less innings the 3 of the last 4 seasons.  The mileage on Rodon's arm after 2021 is going to be something he hasn't experienced in since 2016.  Not something I would bet on holding up all that well for him.  I like Carlos and wish him well.  I am absolutely stoked for him that he's figured things out. He is our ace right now. But I don't want my team to be paying him $15M a year to sit on the IL the next few seasons.  

  

[The Kids Can Play]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, alright man.  Keep living in fantasy world.  

The Sox didn't sign Keuchel to be a fire throwing ace.  Keuchel is 12-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.71 FIP with the Sox.  What exactly are you looking for?  He's fine and FAR from this clubs problem.  He has no trade value because he's paid what he's worth.  The Sox are not in a position to give away a rock solid mid rotation starter for nothing, to turn around and pay market value for an enormous injury risk in Rodon.

Rodon has never thrown over 165 innings in his career.  He is on pace to surpass that this year if he remains healthy.  He's pitched 69 or less innings the 3 of the last 4 seasons.  The mileage on Rodon's arm after 2021 is going to be something he hasn't experienced in since 2016.  Not something I would bet on holding up all that well for him.  I like Carlos and wish him well.  I am absolutely stoked for him that he's figured things out. He is our ace right now. But I don't want my team to be paying him $15M a year to sit on the IL the next few seasons.  

  

 

19 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, alright man.  Keep living in fantasy world.  

The Sox didn't sign Keuchel to be a fire throwing ace.  Keuchel is 12-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.71 FIP with the Sox.  What exactly are you looking for?  He's fine and FAR from this clubs problem.  He has no trade value because he's paid what he's worth.  The Sox are not in a position to give away a rock solid mid rotation starter for nothing, to turn around and pay market value for an enormous injury risk in Rodon.

Rodon has never thrown over 165 innings in his career.  He is on pace to surpass that this year if he remains healthy.  He's pitched 69 or less innings the 3 of the last 4 seasons.  The mileage on Rodon's arm after 2021 is going to be something he hasn't experienced in since 2016.  Not something I would bet on holding up all that well for him.  I like Carlos and wish him well.  I am absolutely stoked for him that he's figured things out. He is our ace right now. But I don't want my team to be paying him $15M a year to sit on the IL the next few seasons.  

  

Here is what I am looking at: 

Of the 5 Starters on the team:

Keuchel is:

1. Highest ERA of 3.96 this season 

2. Only starter with more hits than innings pitched with 89 hits in 86 innings. 

3. Highest BA against at .263

4. Highest WHIP 1.34

5. Lowest WAR of 0.6 for the starters

BTW, wins and loses are not fair nor a good judgment on whether a pitcher is doing a good job. He is 6-2 only because he is given a lot of runs. Giolito is 5-5 and he should be at least 7-4, if the bullpen didn't blow his games. 

Oh yeah, where was Keuchel last year in the playoffs? 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER's 2 HR's 

He is anything but a rock sold arm as you claim. 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

Rodon is not getting dealt. Also, why would the Diamondbacks want him when they are years away from contending again? 

I know he isn't getting dealt.  The Dbacks could trade him for youth that's why or if the Sox could swing a 3 way trade  involving the Dbacks and someone else.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know he isn't getting dealt.  The Dbacks could trade him for youth that's why or if the Sox could swing a 3 way trade  involving the Dbacks and someone else.

Not gonna lie, trading Rodin is a weird idea coming from someone who’s anti-Vaughn and talking about this season 2021 World Series chances.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Why do you assume Rodon and Lynn are gone. Rodon said after he signed before the season, he had other options but he wanted to remain a Sox player. I seriously believe Rodon as a free agent next year wants to stay here. I compare Rodon to Abreu. Jose Abreu has always given Hahn a home town discount because he wants to play his entire career with the White Sox.

Lynn has said publicly he loves playing on this team. I get he is a free agent too, but unless Jerry R plays cheap ass and doesn't allow Hahn to spend the necessary money for Lynn, why would Lynn want to go to another team, when the team he is on here, has as much chance to win a WS title as any other team over the next few years. 

I would rather see us have a rotation next year of Giolito, Lynn, Cease, Kopech and Rodon and LOSE Keuchel in a off season trade. 

I have to assume they will be gone because they are free agents. If the Sox want them back then they will have to pay up. After all it's in the player's best interest to be a free agent after a good year. That's the whole point of reaching free agency, to maximize your earnings.

[The Kids Can Play]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I have to assume they will be gone because they are free agents. If the Sox want them back then they will have to pay up. After all it's in the player's best interest to be a free agent after a good year. That's the whole point of reaching free agency, to maximize your earnings.

I agree with you there. However a lot of free agents resign with their current club each year. It's not always only about the money. My only point is as long as Jerry isn't cheap he should resign Lynn and I think Rodon won't be as costly as everybody thinks. If they do leave then we'll get our 1st round compensation picks and move on.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Not gonna lie, trading Rodin is a weird idea coming from someone who’s anti-Vaughn and talking about this season 2021 World Series chances.

I am not anti Vaughn. I love Vaughn against LHP and against some RHP because he needs to hit against them.

Trading Rodon is a wild idea , that's true. But I always thought instead of signing veterans or taking shots on guys who were released that they should have invested in guys who were non tendered during the rebuild. Those young talents like Rodon, Schwarber, Schoop orMcCann who had displayed some ability to have good seasons or flash potential could always have been signed with  team options so they weren't lost if they did well or traded for youth. Guys like Wellington Castillo John Jay or the 1st baseman who is out of baseball now didn't net the Sox anything  except for what little the Sox got for Castillo.

As I said earlier trading Rodon does not mean you are giving up on the season if you can maximize his worth to help this year and future years when you don't have Rodon or Lynn.

Edited June 29, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

I agree with you there. However a lot of free agents resign with their current club each year. It's not always only about the money. My only point is as long as Jerry isn't cheap he should resign Lynn and I think Rodon won't be as costly as everybody thinks. If they do leave then we'll get our 1st round compensation picks and move on.

Lance Lynn is not eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer because he had already received one previous from the Cardinal so therefore the Sox cannot offer him one and they will not receive compensation  for him. Rodon will have to make it through the whole season for the Sox to even consider giving him a QO.

[CentralChamps21]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lance Lynn is not eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer because he had already received one previous from the Cardinal so therefore the Sox cannot offer him one and they will not receive compensation  for him. Rodon will have to make it through the whole season for the Sox to even consider giving him a QO.

A qualifying offer may not even be a thing anymore anyway.

[The Kids Can Play]

20 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I am not anti Vaughn. I love Vaughn against LHP and against some RHP because he needs to hit against them.

Trading Rodon is a wild idea , that's true. But I always thought instead of signing veterans or taking shots on guys who were released that they should have invested in guys who were non tendered during the rebuild. Those young talents like Rodon, Schwarber, Schoop orMcCann who had displayed some ability to have good seasons or flash potential could always have been signed with  team options so they weren't lost if they did well or traded for youth. Guys like Wellington Castillo John Jay or the 1st baseman who is out of baseball now didn't net the Sox anything  except for what little the Sox got for Castillo.

As I said earlier trading Rodon does not mean you are giving up on the season if you can maximize his worth to help this year and future years when you don't have Rodon or Lynn.

I think trading Rodon is giving up on the season. We are only paying him 3 million and for what we are paying him he is having a good season. It's a better value than paying Keuchel 18 million this season. 

We are decimated with injuries and playing bench players and minor league position players. Our bullpen has struggled mightily and the only reliable part has been our starting staff. We go for it this year with Rodon and try to sign him in the of season, or if he leaves and we get the compensation FA draft pick

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

A qualifying offer may not even be a thing anymore anyway.

True but since it's up in the air and I'm not 100% sure when the old CBA expires I just used the old rules. If it expires after the season than yeah whole new ball game.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

I think trading Rodon is giving up on the season. We are only paying him 3 million and for what we are paying him he is having a good season. It's a better value than paying Keuchel 18 million this season. 

We are decimated with injuries and playing bench players and minor league position players. Our bullpen has struggled mightily and the only reliable part has been our starting staff. We go for it this year with Rodon and try to sign him in the of season, or if he leaves and we get the compensation FA draft pick

Might not get one for Rodon either since the CBA expires and a chance for a strike looming in 2022.

There's a reason the Sox signed him for $3M. It's because he's always injured and never fulfilled his promise previous to this year . Even now his value going forward in the 2nd half is a huge question mark.

A player who pitched 6 innings last year and 36 the year before usually is not capable of pitching 200 innings. That's usually the amount of innings a starting pitcher logs from the beginning of the year and throughout the playoffs .  Arm strength has to be built up in previous years. That's why a veteran pitcher like Keuchel is valuable. He can stay injury free and last the whole year. It's not a guarantee but it's much more likely than Rodon doing it.

Edited June 29, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

58 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

 

Here is what I am looking at: 

Of the 5 Starters on the team:

Keuchel is:

1. Highest ERA of 3.96 this season 

2. Only starter with more hits than innings pitched with 89 hits in 86 innings. 

3. Highest BA against at .263

4. Highest WHIP 1.34

5. Lowest WAR of 0.6 for the starters

BTW, wins and loses are not fair nor a good judgment on whether a pitcher is doing a good job. He is 6-2 only because he is given a lot of runs. Giolito is 5-5 and he should be at least 7-4, if the bullpen didn't blow his games. 

Oh yeah, where was Keuchel last year in the playoffs? 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER's 2 HR's 

He is anything but a rock sold arm as you claim. 

 

Any reason you focused on only the start he made for the Sox in the playoffs after coming back from injury, and not his extensive playoff history  of 12 starts and 13 appearances which is much more in line with the rest of his career numbers?

It is also worth pointing out that his 3.96 era is decently above the league average of 4.12, and ERA+ of 106.  He also will always get the Mark Buehrle effect of being a very good defensive pitcher who is almost always out pitching his stuff because of that.  He hasn't had an ERA above his FIP since 2016, and is about a quarter of a run ahead of it over his career.  Yes he gives up more contact, but his double play rates and defense make up for a lot of that.

 

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Might not get one for Rodon either since the CBA expires and a chance for a strike looming in 2022.

There's a reason the Sox signed him for $3M. It's because he's always injured and never fulfilled his promise previous to this year . Even now his value going forward in the 2nd half is a huge question mark.

A player who pitched 6 innings last year and 36 the year before usually is not capable of pitching 200 innings. That's usually the amount of innings a starting pitcher logs from the beginning of the year and throughout the playoffs .  Arm strength has to be built up in previous years. That's why a veteran pitcher like Keuchel is valuable. He can stay injury free and last the whole year. It's not a guarantee but it's much more likely than Rodon doing it.

Well so far the answer is never capable.  He has a career high of 165 innings, and hasn't hit 100 since 2018, and only 3 times since 2015 has been over 100 IP.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

 

Here is what I am looking at: 

Of the 5 Starters on the team:

Keuchel is:

1. Highest ERA of 3.96 this season 

2. Only starter with more hits than innings pitched with 89 hits in 86 innings. 

3. Highest BA against at .263

4. Highest WHIP 1.34

5. Lowest WAR of 0.6 for the starters

BTW, wins and loses are not fair nor a good judgment on whether a pitcher is doing a good job. He is 6-2 only because he is given a lot of runs. Giolito is 5-5 and he should be at least 7-4, if the bullpen didn't blow his games. 

Oh yeah, where was Keuchel last year in the playoffs? 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER's 2 HR's 

He is anything but a rock sold arm as you claim. 

 

What ML team is going to take on Keuchel’s salary for the next three seasons?

The Mets and Dodgers are the only two teams who don’t give a crap about the bullshit luxury tax, and they have no need for him. The Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox aren’t taking on a penny.

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

 

Here is what I am looking at: 

Of the 5 Starters on the team:

Keuchel is:

1. Highest ERA of 3.96 this season 

2. Only starter with more hits than innings pitched with 89 hits in 86 innings. 

3. Highest BA against at .263

4. Highest WHIP 1.34

5. Lowest WAR of 0.6 for the starters

BTW, wins and loses are not fair nor a good judgment on whether a pitcher is doing a good job. He is 6-2 only because he is given a lot of runs. Giolito is 5-5 and he should be at least 7-4, if the bullpen didn't blow his games. 

Oh yeah, where was Keuchel last year in the playoffs? 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER's 2 HR's 

He is anything but a rock sold arm as you claim. 

 

He is, in fact, a rock solid starter.  What he was done in comparison to the other Sox starters is pretty much irrelevant.  As is his 1 playoff start in a Sox uni.  I provided you the state - Dallas has been more than adequate as a ChiSox.  You just don't like his stuff, which is what it is.  He isn't a hard thrower and hasn't been for some time.  If Keuchel is a teams 5th starter, you're doing quite well. 

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

What ML team is going to take on Keuchel’s salary for the next three seasons?

The Mets and Dodgers are the only two teams who don’t give a crap about the bullshit luxury tax, and they have no need for him. The Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox aren’t taking on a penny.

He's actually only for sure controlled for 2022, and then has that vesting option in 2023.  I haven't reviewed the option recently, but I recall there being some uncertainty as to whether Kuechel needed to throw 160 innings in each 21 and 22, or combined.  If the former, there is definitely a chance he's gone after 2022.  If the latter, he's highly likely to be here in 23.  

[mmmmmbeeer]

First place team puts ace on the market?  Just the simple act of advertising his availability would plummet his trade value. 

Teams will know it's not a salary dump, considering he only makes $3M.  That leaves performance, attitude, or injury. 

His performance has been there.  His attitude is good.  So that leaves injury or injury risk.  Which competing team will be chomping at the bit to assume the risk you don't want to take and pay a premium, in terms of prospects, to take that risk?

Just an awful idea....I mean, I guess it drives some conversation here to that's good.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

First place team puts ace on the market?  Just the simple act of advertising his availability would plummet his trade value. 

Teams will know it's not a salary dump, considering he only makes $3M.  That leaves performance, attitude, or injury. 

His performance has been there.  His attitude is good.  So that leaves injury or injury risk.  Which competing team will be chomping at the bit to assume the risk you don't want to take and pay a premium, in terms of prospects, to take that risk?

Just an awful idea....I mean, I guess it drives some conversation here to that's good.

 

I never expected the idea to be well received. Only offered it for discussion because I thought I might actually get some discussion on it. Not the same old lines about it's stupid to trade your best starting pitcher without even thinking about how unlikely he is to pitch 200 innings this year.

People say let the Sox ride him hard and see what happens. I ask why would the Sox want to ride him hard since they know he has barely pitched the last 2 seasons and the best way to win a World Series is for him to somehow last til then ? If the Sox think they can do that and keep him healthy there's no reason to trade him. Maybe  the Sox  start using him as an opener and use him also in relief like they are using Kopech or Kopech can replace him, at some point and Rodon moves to the pen .There's any number of ways it can be handled to make them both last .

However they COULD ( not should) decide that if another team also thinks they can keep him healthy they too might take the same chance as the Sox are taking and be willing to give up a useful piece for him .

I used the Dbacks as an example. They have Zac Gallen a young pitcher with a partially torn UCL who just came back after 1.5 months off and not a FA until 2026. It's possible he can pitch the rest of the year with that partially torn UCL. It's also possible he can't and will need Tommy John surgery . AZ. could decide to trade him now knowing he is damaged goods or wait until the off season  in which he may have Tommy John surgery and have to wait 1.5 years for him to pitch again or trade him then or just keep him or see if after surgery he can come back and pitch well and re-establish his value.

Now if the Sox want to take on the Gallen injury risk and also want Escobar maybe the Sox could make a better offer for the 2 of them . I don't know what that kind of offer would look like but I proposed Rodon, high end guy like Crochet maybe another couple prospects one of which would also have to be good like Burger or a younger guy like Ramos or Rodriguez. No idea if that is too much or too little. It probably should involve a 3rd team with that 3rd team getting Rodon probably a contender, which might not be good . That contender also gives up a prospect to Az. but at least you get some value for the good fortune you had from signing Rodon instead of losing him to free agency for nothing.

Very small chance that AZ. would trade Gallen without insisting on Kopech or they just say no to the very idea of trading Gallen or that you find a contender willing to take on Rodon 's high side injury risk. Sox probably don't want to give up good prospects for an injury risk like Gallen either. All very improbable but not impossible. But at least the Sox get a pitcher to replace Rodon for this season and Lynn for the coming seasons if Gallen can stay healthy. Even if he ends up having TJ surgery at some point you could still have him for the last 2 years of his contract.

 I just thought it was fun to propose something outside the box that would involve a lot of pieces and seems impossible and defies conventional thinking. I know all the reasons not to do it. Was hoping for a little more than that . Instead people see trade Rodon and auto think I'm giving up on this season or act like Rodon is going to continue pitching the same way he has all year right up until the World Series.

 

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

He's actually only for sure controlled for 2022, and then has that vesting option in 2023.  I haven't reviewed the option recently, but I recall there being some uncertainty as to whether Kuechel needed to throw 160 innings in each 21 and 22, or combined.  If the former, there is definitely a chance he's gone after 2022.  If the latter, he's highly likely to be here in 23.  

Per Cots Contracts, he needs 320 IP combined in 2021-2022, and 160 in 2022, and also needs to pass a physical after next season.

That said, he’s doing what the Sox signed him for (eating up innings), pitching decent (perhaps not $18m / yr worth, but decent enough) and isn’t a health concern.

Point stands there is no team currently in baseball who is willing to take on that contract in 2021 if the Sox were in fact trying to move him.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Per Cots Contracts, he needs 320 IP combined in 2021-2022, and 160 in 2022, and also needs to pass a physical after next season.

That said, he’s doing what the Sox signed him for (eating up innings), pitching decent (perhaps not $18m / yr worth, but decent enough) and isn’t a health concern.

Point stands there is no team currently in baseball who is willing to take on that contract in 2021 if the Sox were in fact trying to move him.

He’s paid what he’s worth. That generally the way FA works.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

He’s paid what he’s worth. That generally the way FA works.

Actually, he was overpaid for past performance. That generally is how FA works.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dallas-keuchel/9434/stats#value

[CentralChamps21]

On 6/29/2021 at 12:18 PM, The Kids Can Play said:

 

Here is what I am looking at: 

Of the 5 Starters on the team:

Keuchel is:

1. Highest ERA of 3.96 this season 

2. Only starter with more hits than innings pitched with 89 hits in 86 innings. 

3. Highest BA against at .263

4. Highest WHIP 1.34

5. Lowest WAR of 0.6 for the starters

BTW, wins and loses are not fair nor a good judgment on whether a pitcher is doing a good job. He is 6-2 only because he is given a lot of runs. Giolito is 5-5 and he should be at least 7-4, if the bullpen didn't blow his games. 

Oh yeah, where was Keuchel last year in the playoffs? 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER's 2 HR's 

He is anything but a rock sold arm as you claim. 

 

1] let's wait and see after 3 more months of sticky stuff crackdown if Keuchel is still the worst of the five.

2] guys who can have a sub 4 ERA, give you 6+ innings nearly every start and never get injured are impossible to find.

[The Kids Can Play]

18 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

1] let's wait and see after 3 more months of sticky stuff crackdown if Keuchel is still the worst of the five.

2] guys who can have a sub 4 ERA, give you 6+ innings nearly every start and never get injured are impossible to find.

Yes we will see. Look, I want to win a world series this year as bad as any Sox fan. As a result, I hope I'm wrong and Keuchel pitches great the rest of the season. However I just don't trust him, nor do I think his type and speed of pitches. His pitches allow him little margin for error. Hence why he has more hits than innings pitched and the highest ERA.